China to Overtake US as World's Largest Economic Power

[CapTon 592]

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/30/china-overtake-us-worlds-largest-economy

 

Everyone saw this coming, but it has come a few years earlier than expected.

 

The US has been the world's largest economic power since the late 1800's (1872?).

[Duke87 1,070]

The interesting thing of it is that while total GDP is what has implications for international clout (and is of course what affects us the most in this case), there are four times as many people in China as there are in the US. So, on a per capita basis, Americans as individuals are still better off.

 

Of course, there are 10 or so other countries with a higher per capita GDP than the US. The list changes from year to year, for 2012 it's Sweden, Denmark, Kuwait, Australia, Switzerland, Qatar, Norway, and Luxembourg. Presumably Liechtenstein and Monaco as well, since they've been really high previously, but more recent data is not available. (link)

[Wiimeiser 434]

Does this mean internet censorship and biting wax tadpoles will now become almost mandatory?

[BLANKBLANK 4,414]

Does this mean internet censorship and biting wax tadpoles will now become almost mandatory?

 

For whom? China or the USA?

[Wiimeiser 434]

I say that because America's had such huge cultural influence.

[qazzy1122 2]

I say that because America's had such huge cultural influence.

 

The fact that China may or may not have passed the US in GDP (either now or in a few years), doesn't really matter. Culturally, Economically, Militarily, and Diplomatically, the United States still vertually manages ("controls" is a bit too strong) the world as we know it. The GDP rankings are nice to look at, but have little meaning in GeoEconomics and GeoPolitics.

[NMUSpidey 3,956]

I live in Japan, and even in the isolated, quite rural area in which I live, I see evidence of America's influence and power on a daily basis.  We have two McDonald's in town.  The radio stations play American pop and superhero movies are a big draw.  Most, if not all, of the teachers and students I work with have seen many major Hollywood blockbusters, and film buffs watch lots and lots of old Hollywood movies.  The fashion here, while certainly some of it is homegrown, is still a bit American-influenced, and people who wear clothing from Forever 21 or The Gap are everywhere, and Japan's famous clothing chain, Uniqlo, is almost indistinguishable from The Gap.  Baseball is huge here, there's NPB of course, but also Major League fans, and Japanese players often do dream of going not to China to play, but to America.  And this is a country located on an island chain a few hours by plane from the Chinese mainland, and a whole day removed from the USA.  Sure, there's Chinese food, and the Three Kingdoms legends are a big draw, but there are few ways that China influences its own neighbors these days, let alone the rest of the world, beyond petty territory disputes and making cheap, borderline worthless junk for everyone else.  Regardless of China's rise, they cannot offer a serious challenge to America, be culturally or militarily.  At least they can't yet.

 

That being said, more than a billion Chinese people are working their way through the Industrial Revolution and bringing themselves in line with the rest of the "developed" world.  It is a good thing.  These are people who live there, not mindless drones who exist only to build your iPods.  I say good for the Chinese.  With so many people and such a rich and diverse culture and history, they should be something better than they are, and the numbers bear out that they are on their way there.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

I say that because America's had such huge cultural influence.

That is a pretty hubristic statement.  After hubris comes nemesis. 

 

While the U.S. has considerable influence over our culture, we've managed to hold our heads up in spite of it.  You can tell the difference almost from the first utterance between an American and a Canadian.  Overall, I think we enjoy greater freedom.

[Duke87 1,070]

While the U.S. has considerable influence over our culture, we've managed to hold our heads up in spite of it.  You can tell the difference almost from the first utterance between an American and a Canadian.

 

They say the easiest way to tell the difference between an American and a Canadian is to tell him there is no difference between the two and see how he reacts.

 

With regards to the cultural influence of China, they need to work on having more to offer the world besides cheap labor before they really can win at that. In case you haven't noticed, the Chinese M.O. is to either implement other people's ideas for them cheaply, or steal other people's ideas and make cheap knockoffs.

[jmsepe 2,038]

Frankly speaking, China only has high GDP because it has 1.3 Billion Chinese. Culturally wise, since I'm speaking from a country relative close to China, I can say that Chinese influence is tantamount to the Americans in the Philippines. Economically wise however, Chinese tycoons control most of my country's businesses from retailing, food manufacturing, clothing, services, name it all, surely there is a major Chinese business operating in that industry. 

[Roman_Samudra 213]

JmSepe, we have to admit that  Philippine (and mostly economy in South East Asia) is dominated by Chinese. Us for instance, had this import/export war since 2008, and we are struggling since China dumps Indonesia with very-very cheap goods, and destroying our economy inside. What most ironic is, even though we had bad history about the Chinese people at 1998, more and more Chinese business grow in Indonesia, and yet, the government keep opening deal with China Government, even though the economy is not strong enough to hold us.... 

[jmsepe 2,038]

Well, try to remove China from the Philippines and you take out 70% of the country's economy. There is nothing we can do in a short term that will change the current scenario. Although in the Ph we have this 60/40 policy in which foreigners can only own 40 percent of a business operating in the country, that is not the case, Why? Because these tycoons aren't just Chinese, they are Filipino-Chinese (kinda reminds me someone  ), so yeah and there goes the spool of threads that is needed to fixed. The web of commerce in the Philippines had just been laid well by these commercial revolutionaries that I takes more than a generation to change that. 

[Roman_Samudra 213]

Same here, most boss tycoons are Indo-Chinese, but we can't blame them since they build our economy. We must blame the China itself since they're destroy what we build. Name it, Gudang Garam, Djarum, Sampoerna, Tempo Group, Astra Itd, mostly led by (what we say) Cino...

[qazzy1122 2]

Interesting article about manufacturing in the US vs China. 

 

I encourage everyone in this topic to read it, as there is no harm in having just a bit more knowledge of the world around you.

[cmdp123789 710]

Do you want to know why China, or France.. or basically any other country will overtake America as the "leader" of the world? Its because of 3 main factors:

 

1) Military.

2) Culture.

3) Technology.

 

Basically, when you add those up, there is no country in the world that can overcome the US in that, and those points right there are what you need to "control" (yes, it is a bit strong, but it is the true) the world.

 

Think about it.. no one at this point has the military power to defeat America, at least not on their own, and so as long as they have military supremacy, and with that, you have 50% of the battle won. After all, America's military budget is 45% of the world's military budget, which is something extremely crazy when you compare it to the rest of the world, even to countries economies... like Argentina, Chile, Mexico, basically every country in Latin America.. The US spends more money on military than what a whole country in south america produces...

 

Then you have the cultural factor.. and this one is pretty easy.. GAP, Mcdonalds.. should I go on?

 

Finally, technology.. I dont mean to offend anybody, but lets face it, China either offers very cheap labor force, or steals ideas from the US to then reproduce a very bad and cheap version of the original creation.. So, nothing to do here.. The US is the country again that invests more in technology than any other country in the world...

 

So, even if the "GDP" is higher, nothing will really change, and remember people, the GDP is just an economic perspective, based on consumption, assets, etc... But the GeoPolitical and GeoEconomic perspectives arent included.

[AkemiAzula 280]

I think China has the resources to defeat America and rise to the top of the ladder. But at the same time i am getting the vibe that the whole nature of industry is changing and soon figures like GDP will become meaningless. Quality over quantity etc.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Let's take a real look at China.  China has been civilized long before any Western culture including the Egyptians.  Warlords, Emperors and Dictatorial regimes come and go, but China remains.  China invented capitalism, and has clung to it for millennia.  Mao Zedong and his cronies only created a hiatus which is now ending. 

 

China has always thought of itself as the centre of the world, The Middle Kingdom.  It has absorbed many different races and conquerors and will continue to do so.  Presently with communications and traffic so well defined, expect China to slowly acquire as much as it can as often as it can, if not by conquest directly then by economic takeover.  Sorry folks, but no matter how jingoistic you feel, it is a fact.

 

Some interesting novels have been written, still in print I believe, that most of the current western generations have not bothered to read.  They give a pretty good picture of the cultural base of China through some "old China hands" who have made their lives there.  I strongly recommend "The Good Earth" and "Sons" by Pearl S. Buck as an introduction.  Wang Lung sums up the whole character of China.  He weathers all storms.

 

Hot fiction by James Clavell are not so well researched and thought out.  Great entertainment, though.  I recommend "Tai Pan" and "King Rat".  "Noble House" is a pot boiler and has even made it to the very tarnished silver screen.

[SharkSark 397]

well india's would overtake US economy by 2030 . and when it comes to militarily the chinese can't match the american or russian military technology although it's getting better day by day but chinese technology is mainly cut and copy of russian technology and militarily india's also there our military may not be huge but more experienced than chinese!! 

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Both China and India are members of the Nuclear Club.  The size and extent of one's military disappears in a flash of light when you remember that most of the powers in this world can destroy it.

[cmdp123789 710]

Still... I have the feeling that as long as America maintains the military supremacy, there is no one out there to take over... It will clear your mind to go on and read the military powers of each country to understand how far ahead the US is...

[BLANKBLANK 4,414]

Both China and India are members of the Nuclear Club.  The size and extent of one's military disappears in a flash of light when you remember that most of the powers in this world can destroy it.

 

But only the US, Russia, UK, France and China have enough nukes to destroy the world. They are also the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.

 

It's also why we will never see the likes of WW1 or WW2 again. The big five will not directly attack each other since the corresponding escalation will go nuclear.

 

Additionally it costs so much for the big five to wage conventional war that a world war will bankrupt them. Yeah they have some crazy technologies and capabilities but such advanced tanks, aircraft and ships cannot be rapidly replaced. Especially aircraft carriers which are the primary means of US conventional military power.

 

I also think the fact that strategically placed US, UK and Russian submarines -- holding sea-launched MRBMs with nuclear warheads -- has stopped the lunatics on all sides from waging all-out war.

[Neto Dari 220]

Frankly speaking, China only has high GDP because it has 1.3 Billion Chinese. Culturally wise, since I'm speaking from a country relative close to China, I can say that Chinese influence is tantamount to the Americans in the Philippines. Economically wise however, Chinese tycoons control most of my country's businesses from retailing, food manufacturing, clothing, services, name it all, surely there is a major Chinese business operating in that industry. 

 

Here China invests in sectors, much more than the USA. Brazil has become strategic for China, due to very high food production and is a country of socialist government (along with Argentina, Uruguay, Venezuela, Chile and Cuba) in the middle of the West. In Mercosur, China can't dominate the production, because has very bureaucratic and protectionist barriers, but they have become the most important buyers of our commodities and semi-manufactured. Therefore poverty and social inequality in Mercosur is the smallest of all time, went the region, along with China, which has more reduced poverty. Brazil, for example, reduced poverty by more than half in just 9 years, and Argentina already has a similar HDI for countries of the European Union, different from Mexico, where poverty increased, reached 50% of entire population, and is a country allied with the US. Certainly, the Mercosur will continue allies Russia and China, our distant brothers. BRICS forever  

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

There is no doubt that we are still living in the shadow of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction).  The question to be asked right now is why is Vlad Putin bouncing around the walls of his box, when he knows this for sure.  The walls of this envelope do not push.

 

The Chinese, on the other hand, believe in accretion.  They won't stop until they hit the envelope's sides all around.