Ibero-American Politics

[matias93 7,535]

Attending at the growing number and activity of Spanish and Portuguese speaker forumers on the last months, and the convoluted events on our countries, this thread is opened as a means to have friendly and civil discussions about politics and policies. Of course, all forumers are welcome, no matter their origin.

As my RL career is mainly focused this issues, I'll try to update the thread regularly with news briefs, but your help with that task would be well recieved. 

Also, to keep an amicable ambient, here are some convivence recommendations:

• Prefer English, but don't be shy: English is a lingua franca we all can use and is understandable for all forumers, inviting them to participate here; nevertheless, if you don't find the right words, write it in your native tongue, we really want to know your ideas. Also, online translators are always a good help.
• Keep arguments concise: while is true one can talk about politics for hours, most ideas get lost on more than two paragraphs; try to mantain a conversational style.
• Assume good intentions: if you see something that could offend you, first think: could this be just a misunderstanding? could I improve things by taking the offense? Don't stay shut, but remember that is easy to express oneself in a confuse manner.
• Use data, don't believe on it: statistics are very useful to get a hold of what's really happening, but they are human-made measures that are prone to error and diverse interpretations. Show us the numbers but remember we can see different things on them.
• Understand political beliefs and cultures: our local cultures and political beliefs are very deep rooted and cherished, don't try to bluntly change others', talk about them in a respectful way and comprehend dissent.
• Welcome our friends from the world: lets keep this thread open to all forumers by using an open language, explaining context and references, and being available to answer questions.

[Edvarz 1,985]

Great idea, I have to say I've lurked in the other politics forums but I've never really entered any discussion, this may be a good point to start.

So here's a news piece about the colombian peace process to kick the discussion off with a polemic but fruitful topic: President Juan Manuel Santos won the Nobel Peace Prize yesterday. I read somewhere that this was politically motivated (news piece in Spanish):  To salvage the peace process, Santos was given the prize over the Syrian White Helmets -who aid the population after bombings- or the Greek rescuers who aid the drowning refugees in the Mediterranean.

Are there any parceros (colombian slang for friend) here to give us their point of view?  What strikes me the most about this plebiscite is that abstentionism was higher that 60% some are even likening this with the Brexit vote: made in a hurry, highly influenced by fear, and with a minority effectively deciding the whole affair. From what I've gathered, and I may be worng or have incomplete information, the rural population (which is the most affected with the war) vote overwhelmingly for the Yes, while urban populations -with the exception of Bogotá- voted for the No. So what's next for Colombia?

This is a good example of our convoluted history, I don't think any ibero-american country hasn't had at some point in the past century some dictatorship or guerrilla problem (heck, even Spain and Portugal suffered dictatorships).

[matias93 7,535]

Sala de Teletipo

N° 1 - October 1st to 8th, 2016

A News Brief for Latin America and the Iberian Peninsula

Argentina

A court in La Plata declared corruption crimes as imprescriptibles, potentially opening a wide array of retrospective investigations. The radical deputy Elisa Carrió was deemed crucial on this result, on her role as amicus curiae.

Brazil

The leftist PT loses heavily on the local elections held this week on five thousand municipalities on the country, mainly benefiting the centre-right PSDB party, which backed the current president Michel Temer (PMDB) on the impeachment that ousted Dilma Rousseff (PT) from the office. In São Paulo the incumbent PT mayor ended out of the ballotage, after polling consistently and getting the third majority, while in Rio de Janeiro the far left PSOL party reached the second round against the conservative PRB.

Bolivia

President Evo Morales has recieved chinese (continental) Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, on his tour for Latin America, offering him a copy of the "Sea Book", text that affirms the bolivian right to maritime territory on the Pacific Ocean; this, as part of a PR and soft power operation by the bolivian government that points to reinforce their case at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (The Hauge).

Chile

865 children died on State custody since 2005, showed an retrospective investigation, fostered by the oficialist deputy René Saffirio, on the National Minors' Service (SENAME), an institution charged with the care and education of vulnerable children, but also juvenile delinquents (in a country that lowered its age of penal responsability to 14, years ago). The president Bachelet declared that "as society and as State, we have failed to those vulnerable youngsters and children".

Colombia

After the signing of a peace deal between the Colombian State and the FARC (Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces), a subsequent referendum defeated the deal by an slim margin and historical low turnout. The deal's opponents, leaded by former president Álvaro Uribe, accussed the president Juan Manuel Santos of trying to amnistiate the FARC's war crimes. Santos later reunited with Uribe to widen the accord, while Rodrigo Londoño (Timoshenko), the guerrilla leader, insisted on keeping the deal-signing truce for the rest of the month. On Friday, president Santos was awarded the peace Nobel Prize.

Costa Rica

Cuba

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

El Salvador

Guatemala

Haiti

The passing of the Matthew hurricane has left over 800 deaths in the country, and massive infraestructure destruction. Relief experts fear the damaged sanitary conditions could foster outbreaks of many tropical diseases, in a country that hasn't fully recovered from its 2010 earthquake.

Honduras

Mexico

Fears of an inflationary crisis are growing amidst a falling peso, relatively high CPI and heightened debt, for which the IMF is recommending the creation of an autonomous fiscal council to regulate the country structural balance. National experts dismiss the recommendation, noting that Mexico already have institutions dedicated to watch the country debts.

Nicaragua

President Daniel Ortega assures the upcoming presidential elections (in which he's the leading candidate) will be fair, dismissing the need of international observers. Oppositors accuse Ortega's government of forbidding the PLI, main party against its government, of participating in the elections, and the US Congress is advancing a bill, the so called 'Nica Act', to block money lends to the country, rejecting its elections as only procedimentally correct.

Panama

Paraguay

Peru

Leaked audio reveals that former Kuczynski health adviser, Carlos Moreno, would be implicated in an illegal maneouvre to over-pay medical treatments for patients derived to the private health system. Moreno has already renounced, accusing that secret recordings are being doing in Palacio Quemado, and president Kuczynski denied that Moreno had even got enough time to designate his subordinates, thus implying that the supposed illegal operation couldn't be possible.

Portugal

Antonio Guterres, former Portugal PM and ACNUR high comisioneer is chosen as the new general secretary of the United Nations. Samantha Power, US ambassador to the UN, said the election was notably incontrovertible, due to the differences in experience between the candidates.

Puerto Rico and United States

A new poll shows Hillary Clinton dominating the hispanic vote in Florida, a swing state, by 24 points over Donald Trump. The cipher predates the revelation of audios that show the business mogul talking abusively of women, and that caused masive reject, even from the Republican Party, where a few high dirigents have even proposed to replace him with their vicepresidential candidate, Mike Pence.

Spain

Most of the party dirigents interpretate the oust of Pedro Sánchez as a definitive signal that the PSOE will abstain and allow the rightist PP to form government on minority, avoiding to reach a third general election in 2016. Podemos leader, Pablo Iglesias, has declared their party as the only and true left in Spain, while Ciudadanos (centre right) has avoided to take side firmly with the PP, instead abstaining on policy votings in the Congress.

Uruguay

Amidst a growing feeling of insecurity against delinquence, the legislative oppostion calls Eduardo Bonomi, the Interior minister, to interpelation, after the secretary of state suggested people shouldn't resist armed robberies. The governing Frente Amplio resists the opposition advances and accuses Pedro Bordaberry, the leader of the interpelation maneouvre and former presidential candidate, of trying to get by this means the office, this because the interpelation mechanism can legally end on anticipated elections.

Venezuela

Henry Ramos Allup, president of the National Assembly, accuses the Supreme Court of planning to eliminate the parlamentary inmunity and to be trying to 'kill' the recall referendum that the opposition plans against the president, Nicolás Maduro.

---- o ----

Sorry for the omitted countries, but I couldn't find good news sources. Do you have any recommendations? Or can you add some news for those places?

Oh, and @Edvarz, glad to have you by here. About that rule, the only exceptions for the second half of the 20th century were Mexico and Venezuela... well, you can see what's wrong with both criteria.

  Edited October 8, 2016 by matias93  
answer to Edvarz

[Alejandro24 575]

22 hours ago, matias93 said:

Sorry for the omitted countries, but I couldn't find good news sources. Do you have any recommendations? Or can you add some news for those places?

Follow the main sources of news in spanish, starting by El País. Then, go over each country and region.

It could become somekind of complex, but nothing to worry about.

[matias93 7,535]

Just now, Alejandro24 said:

Follow the main sources of news in spanish, starting by El País. Then, go over each country and region.

It could become somekind of complex, but nothing to worry about.

Tried, but little central american countries are sadly scarcely covered by international media (even the very complete El País), and I don't know how their local newspapers are biased, so most surely there will be some errors until I get a better grip...

[matias93 7,535]

Yes, someone musicalized it with Dirty Dancing, but I know what we see on the debate was this:

By the way, the format is hideous and loses completely the point of forcing candidates to discuss the issues...

[TekindusT 3,809]

On 9/10/2016 at 10:22 PM, Alejandro24 said:

Follow the main sources of news in spanish, starting by El País. Then, go over each country and region.

It could become somekind of complex, but nothing to worry about.

If El País gave the same coverage it gives to Latinamerica to all the regions in Spain, that would be great. El País has degenerated dramatically fast from being the "newspaper of the progressist" in Spain to be the resonance box of the two main Spanish parties, having an especially belligerant bias towards Catalan separatism. On this topic, El País is absolutely no different to the other newspapers, which dangerously lean on a shameless filo-Francoist conservadurism. News talking about the widespread corruption which rots the two main parties are non-existant. News about the royals are nonexistant unless they serve to the exaltation of this institution.

Some were surprised when the Panama Papers were released. El País wasn't given exclusive access to them, but a TV channel did; showing up to what point El País has become another not trustworthy gnawed leg trying to precariously sustain a state as rotten inside as Spain is.

[matias93 7,535]

About the media quality, there is so much to say, no doubt that in our countries with parties without popular base but control of the government, mass media mostly an instrument of theirs. Nonetheless, small media could be an useful source of alternative versions, even if not objectivity.

Now, going into political happenings, now in Chile we got our own democratic troubles (thanks 2016), because the electoral service and the civil registry matched their databases faultily, and now half a million people got their electoral address changed; with local elections this Sunday, the only solution the government is promoting is to allow the changed people to vote in any of their two municipalities. All well until someone tries to vote twice; even if the electoral service can re check the affected polling stations, all the election's losers would claim fraud and undermine the legitimacy of the process.

We were discussing about alternatives with some other sci-pol students, and while my opinion is that postponing elections and correcting the databases would be the best option, a guy cleverly pointed that it would be handing the local governments to the richer candidates, because of the extra campaign period. ¿What do you think? ¿What would you do if you had to decide an emergency solution?

[matias93 7,535]

Just a couple of news:

In Spain, the PSOE voted internally to give inconditionally the rigthist PP free pass to govern, thus avoiding a third general election on 2016.

In Venezuela, local courts and the National Electoral Council nullified the signature collection to ask for a recall referendum against Nicolás Maduro, the current president. The opposition MUD leaders accuse a coup d'Etat, but the government backs its decision saying fraud was detected on the presented signatures.

In Brazil, Eduardo Cunha, sindicated as the brain behind the impeachment that ousted president Dima Rousseff, was detained on charges of bribery, being also accused of corruption, money laundering bank account hiding, abuse of power and obstructing judicial investigations. Nonetheless, in a parallel development, the Supreme Court rejected an initiative to backroll Rousseff destitution, thus securing Michel Temer on the presidency.

In Peru, the consequences of the alleged corruption scandal of the past week caused the aproval rate of president Kuczynski to fell by 8 points in less than a month. Analysts diagnose that the 'honey moon' period of PPK has ended and that his popularity won't recover, in a trend that has become common in the region.

In Chile, local elections are being held now, with few voters assisting (the turnout has been pronosticated around the 30%) and mild suspiction after a system error caused that 460.000 voters were changed from their electoral adresses.

***

 

[Edvarz 1,985]

So, Trump has won our northern neigbor's election. Our already weakened currency is at an all-time low, the Bank of Mexico and the secretary of "Hacienda y Crédito Público" (sort of like our IRS) are expected to give a press conference at 7 am. These effects were starting to usher in even before a definitive result was announced, we shall see how we fare, but right now all I see is stupefaction and uncertainty.

One clear question that arises about this subject and others like the Colombian Referendum is, how did polls get it so wrong?

Honestly, I'm at a loss for words and can't think of anything substantial to say right now. There's an adage that's frequently repeated when referring to our relationship with the US, it goes "When the US gets a cold, Mexico gets a pneumonia". Some TV analysts have been calling for calmness, and I watched one political figure in a discussion table say "it's time for us the professionals to do our job." Of course, that guy recently lost his job as head of our ruling party -and with it his shot at the presidency in 2018-, following the biggest defeat in the party's history; one of the major causes for such defeat was the growing frustration with our economic underperfomance. It would be naïve not to take his words with more than one grain of salt. I'm not religious, but as it is often said in this part of the world "Que Dios nos agarre confesados" which may translate to "May we be confessed when God comes to take us." Like many others, I can't really have any confidence that our government is going to handle this competently.

And on top of the economic aspect, we shall see how can we handle Trump's now triumphant rhetoric. He's succesfully made a strawman out of us -one of many-, he latched on to a centennial culture of hatred and anti-mexican propaganda, of blaming us for their problems; he's effectively trying to get his mobs to lynch us, albeit in a less blatant way than a hundred years ago. Seldom do facts or reliable data support his claims, but this considerations are to no avail when facing the powers of contemporary propaganda techniques; I think philosopher Hannah Arendt said that there's no such thing as an objective reality in politics. Earlier today I tried to write a couple of paragraphs in this very thread about this type of propaganda and how it helps impose value systems by creating an easily marketable reality (not even distorting an existing one); however, I couldn't really piece anything together. I'm honestly speaking from gut right now, but I'll get into a more academic mood later and ellaborate on this.

It's not that I had much hope in this whole process. Rather, as a young philosophy student, I feel somewhat overwhelmed and pessimistic when delving into the power dynamics of our postmodern political life. Maybe this is what has turned many of us internet dwellers into nihilistic, self-rigteous cynics, and what usually makes political discussions online so unbearable. Thankfully we have this niche where we can at least promote some sort of civil, informed discussion.

[Fantozzi 4,068]

43 minutes ago, Edvarz said:

Like many others, I can't really have any confidence that our government is going to handle this competently.

 

Well, let's make Mexico strong again! Build a wall faster than Trump and don't let pass american goods anymore?

[matias93 7,535]

Edvarz, is frankly hard to empathise, even if I want to: I'm living on the comfortableness of knowing basically nothing of this could affect here (maybe an economic crisis, surely less severe than 2008), being incapable of commensurate the worry and the sense of urgency that Mexicans are sure feeling now.

About your philosophical perspective, maybe Arendt (being as brilliant as she is) is not the most adequate reference: the phenomenon in course is much better grasped by Schmitt's concept of politics (fully oppositional and existential, based on a friend-foe dynamic) and the ones that part of that conception (as Laclau's theorisation on populism). No doubt, in politics there is no objectivity and valid arguments can be made from the thin air.

I'm pretending to write something about this trend too. Brazil, UK, Colombia and now the US, plus several other cases that weren't mediatic enough to be known, there is something about democracy that's happening there, and that can explode on any other country.

My diagnostic is that we are living on Habermas' nightmare, a fully democratised world where everyone is free to cast a vote but no one has the opportunity to think about the wider concepts and issues they are voting about. In the midst of constant information flux about everything, there is no way to stop and analyse, only to be offended by obvious human failings and to demand rolling heads: being capable of voting about anything, we have reduced ourselves only to vote about punishing anyone that risks to appear in the social sphere.

[Fantozzi 4,068]

2 hours ago, Edvarz said:

I feel somewhat overwhelmed and pessimistic when delving into the power dynamics of our postmodern political life. Maybe this is what has turned many of us internet dwellers into nihilistic, self-rigteous cynics, and what usually makes political discussions online so unbearable. Thankfully we have this niche where we can at least promote some sort of civil, informed discussion.

There is something about freedom you can't change - you have to ask for the right things.

This is the story - I think it's origin is very old arab - of the poor boy that get's three wishes for free when he opens a bottle an releases a genie. The turn of fate - now the boy can choose his fate by asking what he desires.

But to do the right wishes is the - maybe - most difficult thing in the world - as for the moment this and that may seem the best but only after a while the consequences of your hot desired wishes will show up. To make a wise wish demands of certain logic skills - to draw conclusions in complex systems of actio and reactio.

So that's what will be needed always: education, to study, to get knowledge about history about: how to decide wisely, about consequences.

Well if you look on the us election - the more they are for trump, the farer away they are from philosophy. From education, from studying the big questions of life.

It's not intelligence I'm talking about. It's wisdom, you can gain apart from knowledge.

Now look on education systems. Maths, economics, languages - everything is tought in school. But not this: to make wise decisions.

Well an this is the problem, this is the result. It's the result of teaching children only knowledge but no wisdom.

[Edvarz 1,985]

22 hours ago, Fantozzi said:

Well, let's make Mexico strong again! Build a wall faster than Trump and don't let pass american goods anymore?

I don't think this would benefit us in anyway, it may be catastrophic even, given that the US is our main commercial partner. (link is in spanish, you would think the official page about our bilateral relation would have an english version, but oh well...) Conversely, we are their second commercial partner and the first destination for many US states' exports. Engaging in a trade war would be catastrophic for both countries, though maybe a bit more catastrophic for us. I'm speculating here, since I'm not very profficient in economics, but such an event may well bring global consequences. And, mind you, i'm not even taking about a renegotiation of NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement, spanish acronym TLCAN).

21 hours ago, matias93 said:

Edvarz, is frankly hard to empathise, even if I want to: I'm living on the comfortableness of knowing basically nothing of this could affect here (maybe an economic crisis, surely less severe than 2008), being incapable of commensurate the worry and the sense of urgency that Mexicans are sure feeling now.

I agree, South America maybe won't have any significant negative consequences of this, but it'll be rather interesting to see certain things; who knows what this new government will do about Venezuela, for example. And maybe there's the TPP theme, coupled with the new surge of right-wing economic liberals in Argentina, Perú and Brazil. (I'm not exactly sure about Brazil's position on this, but Macri's government certainly has been enthusiast and Perú is already a member) There's no clear stance (that I can find) from Trump on this matter, but it will definitely be his government's responsibility.

About our national worries, government officials have predictably come out to say our economy is sufficiently robust and can take the hit. Nothing substantial from the president, only the reiteration of his disposition to work together. Dollar sells at 19.17 mexican pesos, having reached around 21 pesos in the immediate aftermath. We shall see how things unfold.

21 hours ago, matias93 said:

About your philosophical perspective, maybe Arendt (being as brilliant as she is) is not the most adequate reference: the phenomenon in course is much better grasped by Schmitt's concept of politics (fully oppositional and existential, based on a friend-foe dynamic) and the ones that part of that conception (as Laclau's theorisation on populism). No doubt, in politics there is no objectivity and valid arguments can be made from the thin air.

You know, it's the second time I see Scmitt's name come up when discussing this theme in the last few months, I'm not specializing in political philosophy but have kept an interest in it since taking a few classes, so it's not a name I hear often. But you are right, his crude vision may be more adequate to fully grasp what is going on. You also mentioned Habermas, I think he and the Frankfurt School are especially relevant if we want to understand how liberal democracies born out of enligtenment values are devolving into such movements. A few months back I came upon a very interesting piece about Theodor Adorno's "The Authoritharian Personality." I have found this term -authoritharian- repeatedly linked to Trump (example). Arendt came to my mind precisely because of a piece I was reading a couple days back on this subject.

And that's the thing, wether or not Trump follows suit on his xenophobic promises -both the wall and the deportations have been said to be extremely costly and unpractical- these antagonizing narratives are already out there; had he lost the election, the trend would still be out there, and this is by no means exclusively a thing of the US. I could really go on talking about the subject but this post it's getting already quite long.

--------------------------------

A final note, while we're at the subject of right-wing backlash: Today (well, technically yesterday as of the time i'm posting this) a group of congressmen discarded a presidential initiative to grant equal marriage rights in the 32 states. This happens following an aggressive campaign from the catholic church and the far-right. Even the friggin' Vatican told our shady cardinal Norberto Rivera to drop it. Our Supreme Court had already ruled in favor of them more than a year ago.

[matias93 7,535]

Same thing here, last week the right achieved to loop to commission for a 14th consecutive time the project to recognise legally the gender identity of transsexuals, and they already imported that discourse about how 'gender ideology' plots to destroy the family. At least they could take the work of doing their own case to oppose the idea, but they simply copy it from radical rightists on the US. Not even the Catholics are as conservative as the new charismatic evangelicals, of the same breed that opposed militantly to the Colombian peace agreement, or gave the needed votes to oust Rousseff from the presidency.

[matias93 7,535]

Well, yesterday I was thinking on updating this thread with several local issues, but I think they are now in the background for a while.

Fidel Castro died this morning with 90 years and 57 years after the revolution that he headed in Cuba. Hated and loved by equally strong motives, we cannot explain the second half of the 20th century without his presence and initiative, not only for the inmediate region but for the entire world.

Maybe the best way to understand the process that is ending with his death is to think Castro as a national liberator, akin to Bolívar, San Martín or O'Higgins: a complex character, capable of giving freedom to his country and to rule it tyrannically. As with them, we cannot judge Castro on the mere role of a politician, nor pretend his regime to be what a mature republic is, but we can and must mourn the victims of his dictatorial ways and recognize that the rule he imposed is not what Cuba deserves or needs today. At almost six decades of effective independence, it is time for the cuban people to give themselves their own leaders, and to embrace the twisted paradox of giving thanks to an undemocratical regime for the possibility of self-determination in Cuba now.

[Ocram's Razr 964]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-12-08/why-witnesses-to-venezuela-s-catastrophic-corruption-keep-turning-up-in-the-u-s

What do you think of Veneuela's current situation? According to Fox & NBC, fishermen are turning to piracy; other sources report people are selling their hair in Colombia, and Breitbart predicts Venezuela to default within a week.

[matias93 7,535]

About defaulting, the country has been on the verge of economic collapse since a couple of years (thanks to their caring "friends" on the OPEC that prurposedly plunged oil prices to bankrupt fracking), so it is very credible that they could default this week, but also the past hundred weeks.

[little pause to look for varied sources of news]

About the general economic situation, it is your typical hyperinflation phenomenon, something that almost every country has passed by; of course that is very frightening to experience (I've been lucky enough to haven't known that reality, but my grandfather, that sold fruit on a market in the 1970s, used potato sacks to keep the earnings of the day, in times of ~300% annual inflation), but is not unheard of, and most importantly of all, countries can and indeed have been recovered of inflationary crises. People doing desperate things for money is part of that scenario, but generally those aren't very 'sticky' practices: most people just return to legal and 'normal' jobs once available, particularly if the new government is capable to hit down on sprawling crime organizations; otherwise they can get entrenched in diverse degree.

Last about economy: I need to disagree with this thing on the Bloomberg article:

Quote

[...] oil specialists lament the rapid decline of PDVSA. “That is depriving the Venezuelan people of the natural resources they own,” says Amos Hochstein, the State Department’s coordinator for energy. “Venezuela can and should be a wealthy country.” [emphasis added]

Venezuela, just by sitting over an absurdly huge amount of fossil fuels has no guarranteed economic well-being, less even social one. There's even a name in academia for this: the Curse of the Raw Materials. Countries that have too easy to get money from international markets are usually bound to create the weakest and most corrupt institutions possible, because is the easier thing to do and any additional effort does not report extra revenues. Is a regional constant: Petrobrás is at the centre of a huge corruption scandal in Brazil, Codelco in Chile literally "has not a f**king dime" in words of one of its CEOs and is getting in debt to pay tributes to the Armed Forces, YPF has been repeatedly privatized and statized in Argentina (with lamentable results in both cases), Pemex is about to lose its monopoly on mexican oil, and so on...
Venezuela can be a wealthy country, in a much more significant sense, if they achieve to evolve from raw material exploitation (which doesn't means to stop producing oil) and create a diverse and resilient economy around those advantages. Just as an example, Venezuela hasn't the technology to refine their oil and depends on developed countries to make it a buyable good, by getting that technology they could do more than simply processing their own production: their ports are just some dozens of kilometers from the Panama Canal, so they could create a refination hub just along one of the global key sea freight hubs. Of course, one could question if this idea is still valid in a post Paris Agreement world, but this is something that should have been done in the 1970s, when the venezuelan government was drown on petrodollars.

***

Now what worries me the most is not the economic problem (one that Venezuela was bound to experimentate with or without chavismo, because of their radical and exclusive dependency on growing oil markets), but the political one. Chávez, with all their shortcomings, corruption and power abuse, wasn't outrightly a dictator, but Maduro is one. Not only he's not supported by the venezuelans (his supporters are mainly people that tries to keep their fiscal jobs by any possible means), but has no interest on even keeping the appareances of democracy, promoting openly to shut down the legislative. A true populist, as Chávez was, wouldn't be trying to block a recall referendum, but to promote it as an opportunity to show their popular support.

The point is, with Maduro being a dictator in practice, but having minimal means to enforce his words, he and his regime is in a very precarious situation, depending fundamentally on the good will of the Armed Forces: once the military stops considering Maduro as the legitimal continuity to Chávez, the guy will be, at best a puppet and at worst a dead man (just maybe walking). If that happens, what the venezuelans have experimented in this decade will be nothing in comparison: a fanatical military dictatorship almost guarrantees mass killings and witch hunts.

So, the relevant question is: is there a way for Venezuela to avoid such a bloody way to get out from a failed populist experiment? I think yes, by a very delicate operation on pactated transition. Knowing that chavistas, and crucially chavistas in the military, won't want to give in on power and end vulnerable, a manoeuvre for shared power must be done: maybe grant them seats on the National Assembly, or some veto power over judicial investigations (all of this already proven methods to avoid retiring dictators and their forces to get back on power). Is, of course, a grossly undemocratic and unfair way to resolve things, but is a way that avoids credible mass killings, and I think is justifiable from that perspective.

[LexusInfernus 908]

I very much doubt your assessment that Venezuela can transition peacefully. I mean, sure its theoretically possible if all relevant actors all decide at the same time they want to transition peacefully to a renewed system. The thing is that all relevant actors will not decide such a thing because they are neither wise nor will they ever act in the best interest of the country and its people. 

This has been the true curse of countries like Venezuela, all their political and economic system produces is incompetent and selfish people, while the competent people are kept out of positions of power. Do not expect their system to change from within anytime soon, change will have to come from those that are not part of the current power structure. 

[Ocram's Razr 964]

Which creditors do you think will take Citgo over? Citgo is a subsidary of PdVSA, which is likely to deafult soon. Once Citgo goes, Venezuela will lose the vast majority of its foreign income (75-96%) and might become a puppet nation, if not outright annexed, unless a revolution occurs first.

[Alejandro24 575]

In the watch of the current situation between US and MX, this is an interesting call.

[Ocram's Razr 964]

Brazil's corruption has resulted in The Purge

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38918478

[matias93 7,535]

I would say that Brazil is somehow exceptional in what refers to its polices, because they are basically private militias that were formally incorporated to the State apparatus, but in effect retain some alleigance to their former patrons; as such, they are much more politized and more conflictive. Also, their decentralised character allows for inequality on wages between police forces (which is, on the other hand, just an expression of the pandemonium that brazillian budgetary policies are).

I don't think is the best option, but at least here in Chile the 'solution' to those issues is to have an unified millitary police and to forbid them to unionise. In fact, there haven't been any police strike here.

* * *

Now, talking about real corruption, what is happening with Odebrecht is frankly ridiculous. While it started as a simple branch of the already big and dirty Petrobrás case, Odebrecht (a construction multinational) was discovered involved in corrupt business with almost every government in the region on the last decades. Is such the scale that a representative of the US DOJ (one of the many agencies involved in the investigation) said that the firm had what amounts to a 'bribery department'.

This is, paradoxically, good and bad news at once: huge as it is, Odebrecht wasn't too big to fail, its owner will be 9 years in prison and the firm paid the astonishing sum of 3.5 billion dollars in fines, all of this showing that corruption doesn't stays unpunished in Latin America. But at the same time, the revelation that many of the most known politicians of the region would be involved in corruption undermines the already frail confidence of the public, and prepares the terrain for a new wave of populists, even if now latin american politics is cleaner than ever (because the corrupts are being effectively punished, not less)

[JP Schriefer 5,591]

I didn't know about this thread. That was a great idea, Matias!

 

[Ocram's Razr 964]

Maduro-loyal Supreme Court kicked democratically-elected congress out. This can be called a coup or a consolodation of power, either way it's a desperate move by a dictator.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-30/venezuela-s-supreme-court-takes-over-national-assembly-duties

 

BTW, there has been a shortage in Venezuelan passports for a while now, as all but the most brainwashed, corrupt, or determined Venezuelans have realized they live in a failed state.

Coming Up: PdV S.A. will need to pay back $2.5 bil in loans in April, while Venezuela is unable to take out more loans (since they would be illegal without congressional approval.

 

In Other News, Mexico set to boycott corn from the USA if The D'ump starts a trade war or otherwise tries to "make Mexico pay for the wall." This will destroy Trump's America, the main corn producers (and exporters).

http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-mexico-corn-boycott-20170329-story.html

[matias93 7,535]

About Venezuela, pardon me a self-quote from another site:

Quote

While it's true that we haven't all the needed data to make a detailed analysis about what has happened, that's matter for academic investigation, not for contingency answers.

Concretely, what we know is that the country Executive closed the Congress after months of insisting, by word and in written, that an opposition legislative was the country's enemy. There is no way this could be democratical, even if a majority of the population would be backing it (and I frankly doubt it).

Democracy implies not to crush minorities, even if it admits widely to disimprove them for the common good, be them economical, racial, ethnic or linguistic. To suggest that a circumstantial majority justifies a crushing of the minorities is to pretend the generalization of such rule to every case; is, for example, to assume that is legitimate to banish all the dakotas to build pipelines and to frack, just to collect more taxes. [adapted metaphor]

This is something we, who want to be leftists outside the traditional parties, have to be careful about: the sheer fact that they reivindicate procedimental democracy doesn't mean that we have to reject it radically, nor to reivindicate authoritarianism when it is convenient to us. On the long term, this will only result on legitimate the same actions against our project, and to alienate the citizens against us.

Now, at least this was the drop that spilled the glass, the peruvian government already decried the coup and retired its ambassador, and surely most countries on the region will do the same, as well as activating the democratic chart at the OAS, enacting a series of measures to force the Maduro's regime to not further advance (because in strict sense everything has being just words at the moment: the National Assembly hasn't been dissolved by force and their members still can claim to hold the legitimate national sovereignty, the regime would need to factually enforce its closing with concrete measures against the legislators)

 

Even worst, it seems that Venezuela isn't the only country facing a regime crisis: in Paraguay, Cartes, the far-rightist de-facto president (that assumed on a soft-coup against Lugo) is now trying to force a constitutional amendment to reelect himself.

 

About the mexicans, I guess is of minimum dignity and self-pride to make such boycott, even if it surely won't change anyone's mind on the US, but only to galvanise their determination against Mexico. On the other hand, even if it's a risky move for the internal market (already hit by the huge surges on consumer oil prices), on the medium term it could pay off, mainly favouring latin american integration. We really need to stop depending so much on the will of businesspeople on other continents and more on accountable elected officials. That is certainly a very ideal perspective, but is at least something to go after.

[JP Schriefer 5,591]

It is the Venezuelan people who suffer the most from this dictator. Some time ago they had no toilet paper. Now there are rumors that a large number are starving. It is estimated that last year something between 15 and 30 thousand Venezuelans fled to Brazil and this year at least 500 per day are trying to get permission to enter the country.

Apparently politics in South America is on fire then. In Brazil, the resignation of Dilma Rousseff's - Michel Temer was demanded for irregularities during the electoral campaign in 2014. Dilma Rousseff was impeached and Temer took over a few months ago, and now he can also be removed. To be honest I'm going to like it, as they are friends of dictators around the world and they have a disastrous ideology in my opinion.

[Diego Del Llano 5,206]

Well, in Mexico our presidente Enrique Peña Nieto, is an idiot, but we work well  'cause we are a capitalist country with socialist dependences, education, healt, and other stuff are free, so, our economy is flexible, and accessible to everyone, I know we have a lot of crime or corruption, but our life quality is good, and every day, corruption is less, thanks to new tenchonologies and participation of young people "millenials" in politics, we are creating a radical situation in the country, we have a lot of problems but we wake every day tryng to be better, 'cause we realized that in this country, solution is young people, my generation, and politic parties are having big troubles and we are voting fo new Indepedent candidates, they are efficent, cheapper, and they have good education and most important, they use logic. 

And like @OcramsRzr, we are taking some preventions with US, all the time Mexico has Worked for the US, If Trump wants to break Free Trade Agreement (FTA) NAFTA ( North American Free Trade Agreement )  finally we have the oportunity to make Huge deals with other Countries, like China, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Brasil, Japan,  many mexicans think that trump is the best thing that could have happened to Mexico, and the worst to his own country... Stay strong U.S. !!! But for us, air in Mexico feels like good things are coming for this country. 

[matias93 7,535]

Well, things in Paraguay definitively escalated quickly:

Protestors put fire to the Congress building after polemic vote on presidential reelection

[matias93 7,535]

While I don't tend to believe a lot on diplomacy, it seems that now is working, because the Venezuelan Supreme Court rolled back on its power grabbing from the National Assembly.