Will China collapse soon?

[Micah 16]

Well, based on the Global Warming thread, I decided to create this thread.

China has been a modern super-power for a few decades now. It has even been said that it is even more powerful than America, Japan, & India. However, based on economists' analysis, if China doesn’t literally clean up its “act”, it will loose severely through the amount of lives lost to pollution alone and its economy based on crude substances such as coal. Here are some interesting facts which are what economists are basing their opinion that China could collapse China’s position in the world and could eventually affect the world-wide economy:

-Out of the world’s 20 most polluted cities, 16 of them are in China.

-30% of China suffers from acid rain.

-400,000 Chinese die each year from pollution alone. By 2050, it will be 550,000 will die from pollution each year.

-Out of China’s 668 large cities, 400 of them don’t have enough water to feed their people. 

-And what about the economy directly?

Net growth? Almost nil

Understandably, those officials have chosen to remain anonymous, but official numbers on the national economy confirm the drift of their figures. The central government's most recent report put the cost of pollution at $64 billion in 2004. Subtract that from the country's gross domestic product, and growth in 2004 was closer to 7%.

 

That's still a growth rate that most countries in the world would love to have, but it's far short of the 10% annual growth that China reports in its headlines -- and frighteningly similar to the 7% rate of growth that most economists calculate as the minimum necessary to create enough jobs for the country's growing population.

It's easy to find economists outside China who are even more pessimistic. The World Bank puts the costs of China's pollution at 8% of GDP. Some economists peg it as high as 10% of GDP. According to this accounting, China isn't growing at all.quote>

Please read this article before commenting.

Edit: My opinion- I think China still has a long way until it falls apart. But still, hearing about 400,000 deaths alone from pollution is astounding and horrific. If that's just from pollution, I can't imagine the death number from other figures. And if the economists are correct, China isn't growing as much as it says it is. I seriously hope China doesn't fall apart because if it does, the global economy will far apart.

[Frankie_Grove 32]

hate to say it..but china is not gonna stop those people from dieing..they have overpopulation as it is. So, their governemnt will most likely do nothing...the EU and USA only abuse China for her resources anyway..Also..if China does go into a large recession, this should help the rest of the world realize that it depends too much on outside countries for it's needs..And this will give China a more 'natural' growth pattern....If China collapses..it's China's fault...

[Easy Bakes 253]

A serious overpopulation problem ,Coupled with a comunist govt,and rampent polution. Most of the population dont have elecricity, clean water

or acess to modern medicine. The three gorges dam may provide more power then any power facility on earth but its still not nearly enough power to provde for every one in China.

I wonder if thier population controls ( only one child each( assuming its enforced aswell as iv heard)) will make a differece in the long run.

[GreekMan 246]

I think it would be a disaster if China fell. I mean the US buys so much stuff from China, and if it falls what would happen. But China is getting rich of the US so the government could do something if it falls. I only hope that China gets a democratic government someday.

[NintendoMaster128 30]

If China crashed, that would only lead to more job opportunities in the United States. Wal-Mart would take the biggest hit from China's downfall.

[The Terminator 0]

Capitalism will do its magic, Maoisim will be dead in 2020.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Historically, totalitarian governments fail.  This is undoubtedly the fate of the present Chinese system.  China has been around for all of recorded history as far as we know, or even before that. 

If China goes down to an economic crash, there is a high probability that it will retreat into isolationism in spite of the Chinese diaspora.  This is historically what they have done in the past.  I expect the Chinese people will survive, but we may not.

[kibblewitbit 0]

communist china is overrated, if it were to collapse we would recover much faster than they will.

china depends on western investment, if all multinational corporations pulled out, china's economy will crash in minutes.

what sickens me is that western politicians and corporations are ever increasingly sponsering a communist country with a horendous human rights record.

communist china is trying to fill the void left by the soviet union, but by depending on its enemies (the west) i have no idea if they ever will get there. people on these forums constantly speak of communist china as if it has already dethroned the U.S. as the worlds leading economic power but if you look at the order it is still miles behind america, sure it's growing but how much longer

Rank Country GDP (millions of USD)

- World 44,384,871

1 United States 12,455,068

2 Japan 4,505,912

3 Germany 2,781,900

4 People's Republic of China 2,228,862

5 United Kingdom 2,192,553

* i'd like to point out that in terms of purchasing power china is second to the U.S., (3rd if you count the E.U), but is still 25% smaller than the U.S., this is mainly due to communist china having such a massive population (this is also the reason why india is 4th).

[richiedamien 0]

China is going to be BIG!!!

Want to know why?

Because they have a diferent mentality from western people!

And kibblewitbit, for the record in 2004 the Central Bank of China had 200 bilion dollars in treasure bond's from the USA, making them the bankers of the US Goverment.

So they dont depend on western investment, at least no the way you think and not at his time, in the 90's you might use that excuse, they had recently opened their country and western countries thought here's our chance to build factory's and sell cheap product's to the rest of the world...

It was like the backyard from western countries, but westerner's dont learn, do they!!

After some years, the products made at china were already being sold at CHINA! Why? Because people were getting rich!

In developed countries, rich and very rich people acount around 1% our 2% of population, in the USA its around 3 to 6 milion people, when china gets the stats close to that it will be from 13 to 26 milion people who are rich our very rich, can you imagine that!! At this moment you already have around 300 to 400 milion people beneficiating from capitalism, having western standard life's.

At this moment China not only is making their own national industry, after learned with foreign company's they start copying!...

you might say, "yeah!!! that's what they do better, but they will never made quality products, they don't have the know how!!"

wrong again, by this moment china is making their own products, with quality improving every year!!

And for those who are against communist government, i hate it, the control they have over the population, the lack of freedom, etc...

But think with me please:

Imagine China passed to democratic government like the soviet union, can you imagine the disaster!! 1,3Milion people free to travel and run from a country governed like russia had been in the 90's!! Thank god they dont have democracy, at least not yeat!!

It's another thing i admire them, their patience! It's better to see this slow change over many years, if needed for 1 or 2 generations, cause if they had democracy, you would have around half the population iletrated, and about ALL not used to democracy and citizenship duty's and responsability's!

Has for what Micah said, well there's the aquiles tendon of the chinese...

You see, China has the biggest reserve of coal in the world, they have places were coal burns in the mountains at open sky, for years!! They know the ambiental problem, they suffer from that, you only need to check any megacity photo from china, and almost always the sky is brown! That's realy the most dificult they will have to work out, sincerly i dont know how are they gonna do it, because their country is ultra polluted! But im sure they will do it!!

Once an american CEO asked to a one of this new chinese CEO's that got riched in 10 years, for how many years did he planned the company's strategy!!

The answer is tipically oriental, he said "We plan the company's strategy for the next 200 years!"

So believe me, China is the oldest civilization on earth, they have been around for around 5000 years, 500years ago they were more advanced in almost everything that hade technology, untill the emperor decided to lock china, and isolate them from the rest of the world! Now they are back, and with the same weapons, they will beat everyone...WHY???...because in this days we live capitalism rules, and human resources is their biggest weapon!

[NintendoMaster128 30]

I prefer my freedom and access to electricity, water, food, any day.

[deadwoods 542]

I think RichieDamien has it right. I doubt anyone else who's posted in this thread has any real exposure to China. I've worked there many times over the past few years and the growth there is amazing. Last trip to Beijing I was eating at a restaraunt above the local Ferarri dealership. China's communism seems to be a successful mash of capitalism and totalitarianism. There is a growing middle class with realative wealth and stability. It's the only country I've worked in that has true equal rights for men/women in the workforce (WalMart?).

The one child policy is not strictly enforced; but there are huge financial incentives to only have one child.

The major western companies will not pull out of China as it is a huge market (just think how much profit there is in selling 1.3 billion toothbrushes, probably more than selling 300 million of them). Companies like Damiler-Chrysler and Volkswagen have a huge market to feed there. Plus do you think these companies could continue to operate if they had to pay US wages instead of Chinese/Tiawanese etc. wages?

Sure many parts of China are third-world (lacking power, water etc.) but that's no different to much of Asia, Africa, South America etc. and 400K people to lose every year is a large number, but it's only .03% of the population. I'm sure it's not that high in most first world countries, but how many people die every year in the US due to car accidents, accidental firearm incidents, poor health etc.?

No, China will continue to grow with it's new thirst for capitalism. Why do you think the boys in the WhiteHouse are scared?

[choco1 4]

Originally posted by: NintendoMaster128 I prefer my freedom and access to electricity, water, food, any day.quote>

Its lucky you were born in a rich country then!

I think this is an interesting discussion. It is clear to most experts that China, along with India, are growing at a phenomenal rate, and are pegged to become the two largest economies within the century, quite probably the next two superpowers, especially China. However, this brings up an interesting question of whether the environment will physically allow them to have an economy similar to that of the United States with such large populations. I think the answer comes down to the responsibility the Chinese Government takes on in association with environmental control and sustainable resource use. There are two sides to this, first the dificulty of making a new, growing economy sustainable when the US, an established economy is having such trouble doing the same. On the other hand, being a authoritarian 'communist' regime has its advantages to controlling industry, growing or not, and to their credit they done a very good job for a third world country in terms of curbing carbon emissions in their industries, which suggests there is some political will.

In the end, alot shall come down to the future of China's political landscape. But at any rate, the environment won't stand in the way of China's economic progression, at this point very little will, however eventually just like the United States their environmental damage will catch up with them. And, if the effects of Global Warming are as bad as predicted then China will be one of the worst hit with millions of refugees. But, they will not be the only ones hit.

So in answer to this topic's title, it will not collapse soon, but it will eventually collapse, and I predict it will not be the only one affected, most of Asia, North America, Oceania, and quite probably Africa will collapse or be reshaped too.

Well, at least thats my very-slightly-educated guess! Choco.

[coolotter88 2]

It isn't really a true communist country though. it's kind of what Deadwoods said, capitalism and totalitarianism. And don't go bashing Communists. In the end, they want to make everything better for everyone. Communism is a Utopia. The only problem is, Utopian societies don't really work in the real world.

[Camaron 1]

Originally posted by: kibblewitbit

Rank Country GDP (millions of USD)

- World 44,384,871

1 United States 12,455,068

2 Japan 4,505,912

3 Germany 2,781,900

4 People's Republic of China 2,228,862

5 United Kingdom 2,192,553 quote>

I have seen that table many times before, I do not think that China's economic growth is going to stop soon. Most reports I have read on the issue state that China is going to overtake Germany on that table sooner or later. 

Ironically the current system of government is actually speeding up economic growth. Lets look at this way, if the government want to build a factory in the UK they have to go through the entire planning process of asking for everyones views and so on. This can take months, years or even decades. In China, if the government want to build a factory they just build it!

I agree that eventually that eventually environmental and health problems will catch up with China. On if this means China becomes a democracy or not, I really can not be sure.

[chazbrew 0]

There are alot of factors that go into the success of a government. One person did touch on it abit, and that is the one child rule. Not that strictly enforced as far as we know, however look at the one child that they do have. This has been going on for the last gerneration. The ratio of boys to girls is severely skewed. I can not quote the ratio, but it is staggering. There will come a point when China will DEMAND the oil that it needs. When I say demand, they will take 100 million man army to the middle east and just take it. This on the onset may seam abit out of line. Look at the recent history of what China is trying to buy. They would like to own all the natural resorces that are available to the world. There will come a time when they will simply just take and they will have the numbers to do it. We the US are stressed just dealing with Iraq. China would never feel that stress by the sheer numbers of thier millitary or the support of thier governmnet.

[DOXXP29 5]

I tend to very much agree with Deadwoods and RichieDanien. Funny, just this weekend I was reading an article about the new rich in China and the CEOs of corporations large and small that are thriving and making both the CEOs and the company very rich. The focus of this article was that these rich CEOs are WOMEN! For all of the rhetoric we hear about the Chinese being down on human rights and women's rights, this article showed just the opposite. Business in general seems to be very much on the upswing, regardless of the author's doomsday sttitude in this thread's article.

And let's take a look at his "death by pollution" numbers. He breaks it down to say that the deaths are caused by "pollution related illnesses". I'm sure, given his tone, that he's including everything, but that's ok. Now, China's population is roughly 4 1/2 times that of the U.S. (1.3 bil vs 298 mil as of 2006) Take his pollution deaths of 400,000, divide that by 4 1/2 and you get about 89,000. I'm certain, without even looking, that the U.S. has at least 89,000 deaths that can be attributed to pollution related illnesses. Start including things like black lung, asbestos related deaths, second hand cigarette smoke, etc, and I'm sure the numbers could climb much higher. My point is, China, with their large number of pollution related deaths is probably no worse than the U.S.

The author talks about poverty. How many people in the U.S. are living below the poverty line? We don't have to go to Appalachia or remote towns to see this. Witness the number of people in all of our major cities that are on welfare, food stamps, etc. No water for homes? I don't know about nationwide, but I read recently that 3% of Virginia's population still does not have indoor plumbing. I doubt that this percentage is representative of the other U.S. states, but it shows we definitely DO have some people without it. He talks about polluted water. What about incidents like Love Canal? And would YOu go take a swig of water directly from the Calumet River? 

In terms of economy, China is experiencing economic growth. The U.S. is headed for a depression. Ask yourself why so many investors are investing in China. Ask why U.S. corporations are building plants in China to take advantage of the labour force. Cheap labour? Maybe so, but the fact is the Chinese people are getting  the work and the Americans are getting, well, you know.

Anyone can take facts and numbers and manipulate the phrasing in such a way that the scenario can look horrific. But take the same facts, the same numbers, apply a little logic and compare them to the way they apply to other countries and I think you'll find that China is in nowhere near the state that this author tries to project.

[xgriffinx 4]

Originally posted by: coolotter88 It isn't really a true communist country though. it's kind of what Deadwoods said, capitalism and totalitarianism. And don't go bashing Communists. In the end, they want to make everything better for everyone. Communism is a Utopia. The only problem is, Utopian societies don't really work in the real world.quote>

you're totally right.

well it's typical for EVERY capitalistic system that there are always ups and downs so china will have recession but the question is:"when will this happen?"

[+Guest]

China ain't going any place.End of story

[sc4portugal 10]

China is not going to fall, far from that the US is going to fall as a superpower and the new superpowers are going to be : China, India, European Union. Anyway I don't know if you know this but in the USA 30 milion live without running water and electricity. In Los Angeles there is a Secundary school that half a class can't get a SEAT.

[Micah 16]

Anyway I don't know if you know this but in the USA 30 milion live without running water and electricity.quote>

Where did you get that stat from?

China, India, European Unionquote>

I'm seriously not trying to be rude... I can understand India and China... I'm simply curious why you think the EU will be too. (Just curious... I'm not saying it won't be).

[JanYpe 17]

Originally posted by: Micah

Anyway I don't know if you know this but in the USA 30 milion live without running water and electricity.quote>

Where did you get that stat from?

China, India, European Unionquote>

I'm seriously not trying to be rude... I can understand India and China... I'm simply curious why you think the EU will be too. (Just curious... I'm not saying it won't be).quote>

I can understand including the EU as the combination of all the economies. ( Germany, Britain, France, Benelux)

As a traditional superpower/ powerblock like the USSR? No. Just no.

We had a hard time agreeing on an anthem, ok? Europe is made up of a bundle of squabbling nations divided by 2000 years of history with a long memory for petty grudges.

That and we have to deal with the French. _{Work shy peasants, the lot of 'em.}

[sc4portugal 10]

Look, the EU is as good as a country alrady if you want all it United States of Europe anyway i'm not the only person to say that. Isn't the EU like a country YES all the power of EU countreis thogether BAMM allo allo superpower. And JanYpe why do you say "we have to deal with th French"?

[The boy formerly known as Evil Muzz 27]

I don't think we can call China communist anymore, considering they've opened up to a free market economy, and now all the major companies operate there, other than just sweatshops. I read somewhere that it should be called "Communist with Chinese Characteristics". How that is justified, I don't know, considering "Chinese Characteristics" would traditionally be considered pure communism and totalitarianism, but I'm assuming it meant China's twist on Communism. While one or two of the fundamental foundations of it still exist, it's pretty much been washed away by Capitalist ideas.

The idea that China will collapse is laughable, considering their economy is just as stable as any western country's. It's like saying the moon will fall to the earth, or my hair is ever going to be not gelled up when I leave the house (). The introduction of SEZ's to China has strengthened the economy by encouraging foreign companies to the eastern coastal regions, albeit at the expense of the well being of those in the rural west.

As someone has already said, the Chinese government won't care about a few deaths by pollution (as ruthless as it may sound). They already have over population problems...

[JanYpe 17]

Look, the EU is as good as a country alradyquote>

That is the very optimistic view of things. Do you remember the proposed constitution getting rejected completely by referendum in France and the Netherlands? The big argument on what should be included in that constitution? (reference to religion versus reference to "cultural tradition") What about the recurring conflict about the budget, the subsidies and the special reductions the British get?

And JanYpe why do you say "we have to deal with th French"?quote>

Just kidding.

Heinz the German made me do it. Help! They're back!

[Gozer_Jep 0]

The EU Isn't one country, and it will never be, but economical, they are very much one country. If you coun't all the economics of the EU, than you've got a very big economy, bigger than the US or anything else. When i look at all the trucks on the highway, 3/4 of them are foreign: the EU is allmost one economy.

About China: i don't think china will collapse: China represents allmost a quarter of the worldpopulation, i think it's very difficult to stop the growth of that.

[storms991 0]

Gozer_Jep : read --> "The United States of Europe" quite good in my opinion.

[Blazerhawk 162]

China has a lot of pressure on it. I believe that the UN will not let China collapse because if/when it does it could trigger a world war. Let me explain.

China's importance in the world is high because of the markets. Should the nation collapse these markets would also. However, the cities of Hong Kong and Shanghai would still be very populous. Add in the fact that thousands upon thousands of products are made in China, and you have the most valuable economic asset any nation could want. Now if the nation collapses on itself its value goes down but it can still be rebuilt. Nations like the US that have massive trade deficits would see this as an oppurtunity to turn their fortunes around. And inevitably two nations will lay claim to the same area leading to war. All it takes is a few small wars to trigger a world war.

Also, adding to my reasons why China will be supported by the UN is the fact that any modern world war would include nuclear warfare. Especially if the US and Russia are pitted against each other.

[deadwoods 542]

Originally posted by: The boy formerly known as Evil Muzz I don't think we can call China communist anymore, considering they've opened up to a free market economy, and now all the major companies operate there, other than just sweatshops. I read somewhere that it should be called "Communist with Chinese Characteristics". How that is justified, I don't know, considering "Chinese Characteristics" would traditionally be considered pure communism and totalitarianism, but I'm assuming it meant China's twist on Communism. While one or two of the fundamental foundations of it still exist, it's pretty much been washed away by Capitalist ideas.quote>

China as a nation (the Middle Kingdom) has been around in some form or another for 5000 years. Communist China has been around for less than 100 years. What they are referring to a "Chinese Characteristics" is the Chinese culture that pre-dated communism. Didn't China have the first currency? They have certainly had commerce as part of their culture from way before European civilisation, and money (and gambling) are very much a part of the Chinese culture. This is what they mean by "Chinese Characteristics".

[Frankie_Grove 32]

For those who do not know it, teh USA is not the only country that depends on China for most of it's manufactured goods; the EU invest heavily in China now also...just adding to the literal 'abuse' that China is getting. Their government may fall...they may have a revolution..can't really tell right now...

[The boy formerly known as Evil Muzz 27]

Originally posted by: deadwoods

Originally posted by: The boy formerly known as Evil Muzz I don't think we can call China communist anymore, considering they've opened up to a free market economy, and now all the major companies operate there, other than just sweatshops. I read somewhere that it should be called "Communist with Chinese Characteristics". How that is justified, I don't know, considering "Chinese Characteristics" would traditionally be considered pure communism and totalitarianism, but I'm assuming it meant China's twist on Communism. While one or two of the fundamental foundations of it still exist, it's pretty much been washed away by Capitalist ideas.quote>

China as a nation (the Middle Kingdom) has been around in some form or another for 5000 years. Communist China has been around for less than 100 years. What they are referring to a "Chinese Characteristics" is the Chinese culture that pre-dated communism. Didn't China have the first currency? They have certainly had commerce as part of their culture from way before European civilisation, and money (and gambling) are very much a part of the Chinese culture. This is what they mean by "Chinese Characteristics".quote>

 

I see your point, but unfortunately many people's views of China will be overshadowed by the Communist regime that was in place until recently.