Will China collapse soon?

[JimO 0]

Some thoughts on the issue from an economist:

China is communist in name only; the government is totalitarian but increasingly less so. Actual communism, ie state planning of the economy, has failed everywhere it has been implemented, and the Party members are fully aware of that. As an interesting side note: if you look at the human rights violations perpetrated under socialism or communism (55-100+ million dead, depending on estimate), its fair to say that it makes the Nazis look like Nobel Peace Prize winners.

Environmental concerns will fade as China grows more wealthly, because enviromental quality is a good, and when wealth is greater people are able to consume more enviromental goods along with other goods.

China is not over populated, in fact, like Japan, China may face a demographic crunch in a few decades and may need many new workers to help pay for an aging society. Overpopulation as a concern is continually bantered about by environmentalists but there is no evidence that there are actually too many humans on the planet. Increased demand for resources encourages the development of technology, conservation, and additional discovery of resouces. Biological models of carrying capacity omit the ability of humans to stretch their resources beyond previous expectations. In other words, population takes care of itself as long as the proper institutions exist (rule of law, private propety, free markets). An example: at the turn of the century there were many serious scientific claims that the world supply of hydrocarbons would be exhausted by 1950. Now it appears that every time an oil company conducts an exploratory mission, more, albeit more expensive to extract, oil is discovered. Humans are generally intelligent, and I fully expect them to solve demographic and environmental problems when they need to be solved. That time is not necessarily now.

While China's GDP growth rate is encouragingly high, note that China is just beginning to approach the level of input to world commerce it had hundreds of years ago. That is, China used to be far more important to the world economic system hundreds of years ago, it languished badly, and is just now regaining the percentage of world commerce it was responsible for. Also note, that with the sad exception of Africa, that growth tends to revert to the mean. Thus China will grow quickly and become wealthier, then will grow slower and its growth rate will approach those of Western democracies.

All signs point to China growing nicely in the future; its economic transformation has already pulled hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. Interestingly, the largest threat to the world economy is some sort of destabilizing event in China, althought experts and future markets don't arrive at consensus concerning exactly what would destabilize China.

Many see China and the US as possible combatants, but I see two economies well connected. War would be very bad for either; it is really in no one's interest to fight when you could trade instead.

And finally, a bit of monetary economics. The yuan needs to rise, but the US Congress is really foolish to apply direct pressure. Yes the yuan is deliberately undervalued, but it is not a massive problem in the short run (in my mind, it is a scapegoat of sorts and a diversion from the US's looming fiscal probems named Medicare, Medicade, and Social Security). I prefer a hands-off approach and a soft landing for the dollar, not some all-knowing Congressional committee that amazingly believes it knows the correct exchange rate.

[sc4portugal 10]

Jim0, Exatly what will happen

everyone, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union'>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_the_European_Union

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union'>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_statistics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_urban_areas_of_the_European_Union

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_cities_of_the_European_Union_by_population_within_city_limits

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizenship_of_the_European_Union

very important to look at

[JDRCRASH 53]

@N_O_Body: Yeah its over 4,000 years old.

But Africa is even OLDER than China! (at least it is according to Darwin's nutty BS theory)

@Richiedamien: Umm......actually the U.S. is the "Saudi Arabia of Coal)

@The Terminator: Hope so.

Has anybody watched "An Inconvenient Truth"?, because if you had, you would know that when all of Greenland melts, most of Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Beijing will drown under 20 feet of water.  (only 3 feet by the end of this century, tch yeah right...try 10 FEET!)

I personally think China is confused to choose Communism or Capitalization

Maybe one day even North Korea and Cuba will both finally realize that communism doesn't mix with economic prosperity.

If America wants to keep up with China in the future is to invent a breakthrough in Cold-Fusion or start drilling in the 2 trillion barrels worth of oil in the Rockie Mountains and in Antarctica real soon here.

So far some economic forcasts show that if China doesn't soon slow down its "overheating" economy-which is growing at 10% each year-, not only China will succumb to a collapse not seen since the Great Depression, but most of Asia as well as the United States-in some ways-will suffer.

With 300 Million people, America could easily match China's boom, but with U.S. debt at more than $1.5 Trillion, and the U.S. Treasury at $20 Trillion, America can't afford to spend more and take risks at this rate much longer.....which is one of the many reasons why Bush's term needs to end soon.

Whats smart is that Los Angeles Mayor Antonio is trying to make SoCal benefit from China's economic rennasaince.

[Shadow Assassin 336]

@Richiedamien: Umm......actually the U.S. is the "Saudi Arabia of Coal)quote>

Correction: Australia is the world's largest coal exporter, even though the US has one of the world's largest coal reserves. I don't know to which of these you were referring to, though.

Well, China may be stagnating, but the main question that needs to be asked here: can it sustain its current rate of growth (even reduced) in the long run?

[deadwoods 542]

Originally posted by: JDRCRASH ...I personally think China is confused to choose Communism or Capitalization...quote>

I don't think there is an uppercase version of the Chinese character set. Sorry, couldn't resist.

[JanYpe 17]

Originally posted by: JDRCRASH @N_O_Body: Yeah its over 4,000 years old.

But Africa is even OLDER than China!quote>

Sure it's older but there haven't been any unified empires lasting thousands of years in Africa. China still stands as the oldest bureaucracy.

I personally think China is confused to choose Communism or Capitalization

Maybe one day even North Korea and Cuba will both finally realize that communism doesn't mix with economic prosperity.quote>

China has totally caught on to capitalism. North Korea and Cuba,  when Kim Jong-Il and Castro finally kick the bucket, we'll see what happens. They can't last long. Korea already has to blackmail the world for oil, and even having a self proclaimed deity as a leader isn't going to keep the stove burning in the winter.

deadwoods:

I don't think there is an uppercase version of the Chinese character set. Sorry, couldn't resist.quote>

Oh snap!

[coolotter88 2]

Originally posted by: JDRCRASH @N_O_Body: Yeah its over 4,000 years old.

But Africa is even OLDER than China! (at least it is according to Darwin's nutty BS theory)quote>

AND

If America wants to keep up with China in the future is to invent a breakthrough in Cold-Fusion or start drilling in the 2 trillion barrels worth of oil in the Rockie Mountains and in Antarctica real soon here.quote>

I hope you were joking in the first comment but considering the second comment about cold fusion and oil under the rockies...I don't think you were.

First off, yes, Africa had the first humans but China is a really old civilization...the oldest still standing civilization on the planet.

Secondly, I must point and laugh at you believing in cold fusion...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...HA...cold fusion is a JOKE in the scientific community...I guess...no one takes cold fusion seriously....cold fusion has  no friends.

third, weren't you worried about greenland's glaciers melting? so why bother drill for the so called "trillions of barrels of oil under the rockies and anarctica" when burning trillions of barrels of oil would worsen the condition? shouldn't we dig up as much of the methane calthrates under alaska first? you know, the 900 trillion cubic feet of methane in alaskan permafrost? we should burn that FIRST...you know why? because if we don't burn all that clean burning fuel first, the methane ice is going to melt and we have a big problem on our hands...imagine...a gas 23 times better than CO2 at retaining heat in the atmosphere...then imagine 900 trillion cubic feet of that gas being dumped into the atmosphere over a period of 100 years...then imagine the earth's weather not being the same for the next 100,000...this stuff caused mass extinctions, we should dig up all of alaska's permafrost that has this stuff in it and burn it for fuel.

[krbe 193]

Originally posted by: coolotter88 Secondly, I must point and laugh at you believing in cold fusion...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...HA...cold fusion is a JOKE in the scientific community...I guess...no one takes cold fusion seriously....cold fusion has  no friends.quote>

I I remember right, the head of IBM predicted a need for three computers in either Europe or the world sometime in 1953 - I got five on the same amount of square metres. Well, the director of the US Patent Office believed that everything was invented even before 1900. It isn't long ago there were a series of articles in NYT claiming there were life on the moon.

[richiedamien 0]

Just for the record:

@Richiedamien: Umm......actually the U.S. is the "Saudi Arabia of Coal)

Shadow_Assassin - Correction: Australia is the world's largest coal exporter, even though the US has one of the world's largest coal reserves. I don't know to which of these you were referring to, though.

You didnt read our understand what i've said!!

I dindt sayed nothing about exporting, why should a country with 1.3 Billion people, more than a fifth of the world's population should think in exporting coal, China is not Australia with only 20 milion people and a size of a continent, that allows Australia to export all that coal!

What i've sayed is that China has the biggest reserve coal in the world, they have 28000 mines that produce 1.7 billion tons/year, against 1 billion tons/year that USA produces, second largest producer of coal, against what someone said before. (the numbers i have are from 2004, from books and study's made by US and European statistics, not from wikipedia) So dont come with Nation pride numbers, cause i'm only talking about numbers that are supported from books and statistics study's, thanks

They export a small portion of the coal because they need all they can get, China's engine for now is COAL, just like England in the XIX century, so for a economy with 1,3 Billion why should they think in being the biggest coal exporters, they have a market of their own, every year in the last 4 to 5 years they openned hundreds of old mines and discovered new one's, and this will continue in the next years.

For people who never been to China it might be difficult to believe, but in streets you can see people selling bricks of coal to warm up residential house's, a majority of energy power plant's are feed with coal.

When i talked about the burning coal at open air in mountains, i didnt explain myself, if China stopped burning coal in all the industries, commerce and residencial AT ALL, they would still had a zone in the interior, that would be burning coal for the next decades naturally, and would pollute the same has england does! Im sorry, im not anglo-saxonic, so my english is not perfect, but what i am trying to say is that in China they have a zone that burns coal in open air naturally, and produce the same pollution that england does!!...MORE!!!....Chinese government cant work out this problem, so the coal will be out there burning for age's!!

So China IS the biggest producer of coal.

And by the way, supported by American, European and CHINESE statistitcs...CHINA MIGHT HAVE A BIG PROBLEM, because there are around 200 milion people unacounted, making China's 1,3 billion people going to 1,5 billion, you look at the numbers and you think, just decimals!!! LLOOL, its like china added 2/3 of US population in a row.

Well, ill be talking latter of some other subjects with numbers, an example:

China is outpassing other bussiness schools in the world, company's are going to China instead of Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard, etc...its not because of price's believe it, its the quality...but ill explain that latter has i said!

And for the record, i am not chinese, american, australian, english, french, russian, our any other big country in the world

...im just a citizen of the world, remember globalization!!

[sc4portugal 10]

CUBA isn't as bad as people think: -it's got one of the woulds BEST HEALTHCARE

-it offerd to help after Katrina BEFORE BUSH

-it's got good educaiton on skills not just for Cubans BUT EVERYBODY INCULDING AMERICA

-it knows how to mantain old bulidins (unlike in Portugal whwre there all falling apart)

-Cuban average poplulaiton IS ALOT BETTER OF KNOW THAN UNDER BAPTISTA

[kibblewitbit 0]

so why have millions of cubans emigrated to america and are even planning parties in miami for the day that castro dies (just a thought) but it is true that cuba has probably been the most succesful communist country. not that i like communism

now back to china.........

[JDRCRASH 53]

@krbe: you now its kinda funny, we always hear about Hydrogen Fuel Cells, Solar and Wind in the Bush's speeches, but never about Cold-fusion.........NEVER.......it always gets left out!

@coolotter88: well the fact that a North Dakota unversity said they figured ColdFusion out, proves that even if their theory was incorrect, we have come a long way.
And at the rate our civilization's technology is accelerating, its clear that it won't be long before somebody fuses an Atom at room Temperature.

And, if were gonna destroy the planet anyways in the future and there's nothing we can do about it, we might as well burn all the oil we can find.

@richiedamien:I understand now...your basing concrete facts, its just that in a Popular Science magazine, i learned that the Appalachians hold the largest Coal Reserves on the planet.

[Frankie_Grove 33]

Originally posted by: sc4portugal -Cuban average poplulaiton IS ALOT BETTER OF KNOW THAN UNDER BAPTISTAquote>

 

waah?

[Micah 16]

CUBA isn't as bad as people think quote>

Say that to a Cuban. Whenever Fidel was dieing, almost all the Cuban refugees in Florida were parading around the streets. If life is great in Cuba, why are people fleeing and the US is having to prepare for the flood of possibly one million Cubans when Castro dies?

When it comes to Communism, it does sound like a great idea. But Communism leaves out one key element: human nature. As for China, it really isn't Communism anymore. Communism's core belief is that the middle class is the oppressor and the working class in the oppressed (according to my World History book). When you look at China, the middle class is basically being praised. So, China is more like an totalitarian capitalistic nation. (Almost like an oxy-moron). 

Edit: Frankie- No, he meant Batista, not Baptist(a).

[flame1396 9]

Overall China is growing astronomically. but their infrastructure and living standards will need to improve to sustain it

[JanYpe 17]

As for China, it really isn't Communism anymore.quote>

"Socialism with Chinese characteristics" they call it. They've done as much as they can to make communism practical. Chairman Mao was a firm believer in Antagonistic contradiction: The differences between the social classes are too great to ever allow a compromise. But Mao is dead and Deng Xiaoping's reforms worked their magic on China's economy. Very little is left of Mao's original ideology. It's all pretty interesting when placed in the Chinese history of the past few centuries.

So, China is more like an totalitarian capitalistic nation. (Almost like an oxy-moron).quote>

Sounds like someones been reading up on his Friedman.

Edit: Frankie- No, he meant Batista, not Baptist(a).quote>

I think it's not so much about the spelling but more about the way he promotes replacing one dictator with another, no?

-it offerd to help after Katrina BEFORE BUSH

-it's got good educaiton on skills not just for Cubans BUT EVERYBODY INCULDING AMERICA quote>

How does any of this make sense?

[krbe 193]

Originally posted by: JDRCRASH

@krbe: you now its kinda funny, we always hear about Hydrogen Fuel Cells, Solar and Wind in the Bush's speeches, but never about Cold-fusion.........NEVER.......it always gets left out!quote>

Not that I've heard any of his speeches, but I'll bet it's lots of stuff he doesn't tell you about. Note that I'm not saying that cold fusion is possible anywhere else than on the Internet, but that you can't just disregard something because many believes it's a joke (or that some president isn't telling you about it).

[Micah 16]

Originally posted by: JanYpe

Edit: Frankie- No, he meant Batista, not Baptist(a).quote>

I think it's not so much about the spelling but more about the way he promotes replacing one dictator with another, no?

quote>

 

Actually, from what I can tell, Frankie thought that sc4portugal was talking about the Baptist denomination of Christianity instead of a single individual such as Batista.

[sc4portugal 10]

WHAT? I do not like dictator's I AM JUST SAYING THAT ONE WAS BETTER THEN THE OTHER, NITHER ARE GOOD. Anyway most people think (including most Cubans) that america ia the paradisethat it isn't even most americans do. IN AMERICA 30 MILION PEOPLE LIVE WITHOUT WATER AND ELECTRO..

p.s i was talking about Batista, sorry

[JanYpe 17]

America, paradise etc.quote>

Paradise is what you make of it. It's about the opportunities that are open to you. Someone on an island with a very shaky economy might technically not be in the best position. A socialist paradise is usually a lot more "socialist" than "paradise".

IN AMERICA 30 MILION PEOPLE LIVE WITHOUT WATER AND ELECTROquote>

Where did you get that figure? All I could find about this is an old report saying that 27 million low income families were at risk of being cut off, pointing out that utility costs were high. This isn't really the same as living without water and electro.

@Americans: I am right, right? You aren't hiding a nation the size of Australia without access to water, are you? You've checked everywhere, I trust? Nevada? North Dakota? All the usual desolate suspects? You aren't trying to pull a fast one on us?

[sc4portugal 10]

JanYpe-------From, Oprah

[Frankie_Grove 33]

Originally posted by: Micah

Originally posted by: JanYpe

Edit: Frankie- No, he meant Batista, not Baptist(a).quote>

I think it's not so much about the spelling but more about the way he promotes replacing one dictator with another, no?

quote>

 

Actually, from what I can tell, Frankie thought that sc4portugal was talking about the Baptist denomination of Christianity instead of a single individual such as Batista.quote>

 

sorry..i thought it was a typo..lol..if it had been i would have been quite upset...

EDIT: Communism is nothing more than extreme Socialism...Karl Marx himself even said it...

[DOXXP29 5]

I actually tried to find a source of information regarding the number of people without water or electricity, but couldn't find anything. There may be 30 million people with wells who are not tied into a municipal water system, but 30 million without water or electricity doesn't seem real at all. (Unless that's the number of people who sent money to Oprah's multiple causes and therefore didn't have enough to pay their bills and got cut off. Relying on Oprah for data is about the same as relying on Pat Robertson. They make numbers up to fit their causes by manipulating existing data.)

[bixel 1,223]

Originally posted by: JimO Some thoughts on the issue from an economist:

China is communist in name only; the government is totalitarian but increasingly less so. Actual communism, ie state planning of the economy, has failed everywhere it has been implemented, and the Party members are fully aware of that. --quote>

While the rest of what you say makes some sense this 1st part need to be thought through a little better. Before you step up on your high and mighty horse and decide for yourself that state planning of the economy has failed everywhere - including China you may want to do your homework like a real economist does.

I have 2 yrs of economics at Portland State University and I even read books about China's government politcal system and their economies. You may want to do the same. I usually avoid topics like this because it is usually filled with people who have a general perspective on things but do not understand the reasons for it. Anyhoo - here is some recommended reading.

Red Cat, White Cat: China and "Market Socialism" by Robert Weil

The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China by Susan L. Shirk

[sc4portugal 10]

Ok but socialim is difrent than comunisum: do you think that portugal; spain; italy; uk ... are conumist?

[Frankie_Grove 33]

Originally posted by: sc4portugal Ok but socialim is difrent than comunisum: do you think that portugal; spain; italy; uk ... are conumist?quote>

 

there is a great difference between that...and be 'extremist' Socialism came before Communism....they are very similar but in no way are the same..however, the still have very close similarities...read the official definintions of both..then tell me what you think?

[Camaron 1]

Originally posted by: sc4portugal CUBA isn't as bad as people think: quote>

 

From personal experience I would have to agree, I do not support Castro's government, but he still has made many improvements to the country. Health-care, education and a generally improved standard of living have been made under his rule. I can tell you that there is no other Caribbean island I have felt safer, but that like other things has obviously come at a very large price.

And I can confirm it is true that Castro offered to help with the Hurricane Katrina relief effort, there was just no response from the US government so it never happened.

[JDRCRASH 53]

Actually guys, Bixel is right: In Communism there is ONE ruler. In other words, that man IS the law. Basically, if either Fidel Castro or Kim Jong-il became high on something, and told their military to launch a nuclear attack on a country.......they WOULD do it. Also there is no Private property And the government is in control of the economy. They even tell you what job and where to live. Now..in Capitalism there is NO one ruler...which is why we have Congress and the Supreme Court. Our government is divided into three branches: Judicial Branch, Legislative Branch, and of course, the Executive Branch. The Government is seperated from the Economy.

[JanYpe 17]

Now..in Capitalism there is NO one rulerquote>

Capitalism is an economic system, not a form of government. The government is not totally separated form the economy. It may not plan the economy, but it does regulate the economy. Think of minimum wages or anti-trust laws. The government in a free market system provides rules, acts as an umpire and produces the services that can't reasonably be left to the private industry.(Police, armed forces etc.)

In Communism there is ONE ruler. In other words, that man IS the law. quote>

Short answer: no. Look at Sovjet Russia. Do you know why it was called Sovjet? A sovjet was originally a local council, chosen by local farmers and workers to govern themselves on a local level. The Soviet Union started out with a congress made up out of local representatives.

Which isn't to say that you are entirely wrong. The lack of a free market can arguably make it easier for one man to take total control.

Before you step up on your high and mighty horse and decide for yourself that state planning of the economy has failed everywhere - including China you may want to do your homework like a real economist does.quote>

Give him a break. There are plenty of examples that show that an entirely planned economy is not efficient. If a system gives minor blessings and major setbacks, people will look at the setbacks. Why not give a counter example if you are going to go against his post?

[sources?]--------From, Oprahquote>

Only the very finest in journalism then.

[Micah 16]

Anyone see today's major news? http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17359737/

The world economy fell dramatically today. I think the hardest hit was Europe and the US after the news about the massive drop in China. Is this just a slice of what could happen if China collapses?