Will China collapse soon?

[ShortStraw 1]

China is not on the verge of collapse.  If anything it's more stable than the U.S.  It's just having a few minor growing pains, heh.

[belfastuniguy 18]

Simfox, you implied that consumers in the 'west' will borrow from China......your recent post does not back that up. I was referring to consumer lending, the money that has allowed the growth in purchase of products from China. Governments do not lend this, commercial banks do, and Chinese banks are far from being able to do so at the minute.

Also it is wrong to say that Chinese don't by anything from you... they do... They by your debtsquote>

and

So when you go to buy you dream tv remember that it was made in china and you buy it on money you borrow from Chinaquote>

That to me means you were discussing consumer debt, which China does not buy so please check your reply before embarking on a rebuke. The 'all wonderful' govt of China does not buy western consumer debt, that is purchased by other banks. Please get YOUR FACTS straight on the systems of commercial banking before writing something pertaining to it.

I am fully aware of trade deficits and surpluses, I'm an economist so do need lectures from you basic trade economics. That is not what you previous post suggested, you had phrased it in a way that suggested commercial lending, so that's problem not mine.

For your information not all goods I buy come from China, the vast majority of my clothes come from Europe, and I don't mind paying more for them. Yes many 'consumer goods' are manufactured in China, but there isn't much the consumer can do about that, it's simply companies making goods there because the labour is cheap. What western nations now focus on is more developed forms of trade such a banking, financial and insurance services, of which the UK is the world leader. Something China will not achieve for a long-time, as I stated previously, their commercial banking system is flawed and in need of major reform.

[Schmicky 0]

Is China going to collapse soon?? China is just getting started... like said above China is going through growing pains, good for them... yes there are/have been mistakes such as pollution and tainted toys but what is wrong with that (that meaning "mistakes," not tainted toys)? we learn from them...America (china/america comparison) had mistakes and learned from some and is still trying to fix others after 200 years. Hell it doesn't even look any different than America with all that pollution from industry in the late 19th through the 20th centuries.

[Barbarossa 51]

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  Edited September 7, 2012 by Barbarossa  

[GingerBlokey 30]

Well the title of this thread is soo leading!

It's biased against China so much.

Personally I dont think China is a "good" country but I do think it is incredibly strong and that it will take a lot more than a few wobbles to bring it down. Id give it a few years before China overtakes the US as a world power as the US took over the USSR and the UK. It would be in the UK's best interests to smile on China and help it along. We need to realign.

[coolotter88 2]

Chinese shoppers in a walmart in China

"Hey, I just made this yesterday!"

well, i'm Chinese and I found that joke pretty funny.

@ Barbarossa, why be biased against certain political ideologies? not everyone can be a democracy yet.

oh and Taiwan is a part of China. so technically, things made in Taiwan are "Made in China"

[Barbarossa 51]

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  Edited September 7, 2012 by Barbarossa  

[belfastuniguy 18]

oh and Taiwan is a part of China. so technically, things made in Taiwan are "Made in China"quote>

I have to disagree also, just because PRC says Taiwan is theirs and points guns and missiles at Taiwan and threatens military action if they wish to declare independence does not mean that Taiwan or ROC is part of China.

                              

                                      

[patriots_1228 51]

Originally posted by: coolotter88

oh and Taiwan is a part of China. so technically, things made in Taiwan are "Made in China"quote>

 

part of me thinks you said that because china will jail you and cut your internet if you don't acknowledge taiwan as part of china. Taiwan is NOT part of china, it would be like me saying

oh and canada is a part of America, so technically, things made in canada are "Made in America"quote>

[Micah 16]

Well the title of this thread is soo leading!

It's biased against China so much.quote>

It's based on the article on MSNBC that originally started this thread. If you feel it is biased, tell MSNBC.

America (china/america comparison) had mistakes and learned from some and is still trying to fix others after 200 years.quote>

There is a difference. One is ruled by democracy. One is ruled by communism. Eventually, people will desire freedom over money.

[SimFox 802]

Belfastguy, if you are REALLY an economist than you definitely must a political one, as you twist and turn around things to suite you. China buys PUBLIC debt - debt shared by all members of society and backed by they wealth and income. Governments issue them on behalf of society and they are paid back to holders from the taxes collected from society - you as a part of society are the borrower and the payer. Taxes will be deducted from your income and hence reduce your purchasing power. But of course if you are really an economist you should know it. Just conveniently trying to ignore it...

Also by very logic of an argument this we buy from them they buy from us... Do you PERSONALLY by something from Chinese government? or even a Chinese company... Most probably not. you buy from your local retailer who buys from importer who buys from producer or often brand holder who order stuff from subcontractors.... finally it this chain comes to some factory somewhere in China. So if you would HONESTLY follow the logic you shouldn't have any problem with me saying that China buys ... but... you choose jump on a tinniest technicality - you must moonshine as a lawyer ;-)

China will most definitely not collapse, but neither will US. Both crys are just a political speculation. China is a definitely HUGE thorn in West's tender place. For Generation has it been selling the world it's model as the only one that will insure prosperity. China just changed it. It will and already has significant impact on the world. But there will be no collapsing here or there. In the end we'll all adapt. China will inevitably evolve into the society where people will have more say. But will that say be recognized by West as a democratic - i'm not sure. Because often only regimes aht are western oriented are granted such a titles. Hamas anyone?

[coolotter88 2]

no, actually, Taiwan is a part of China because they are also Chinese, we're all a part of the same ethnic group, I don't see why we can't get along (actually, I have many very good "Taiwanese" friends).

and it's not like, "Taiwanese" don't enjoy doing business with mainland China, they purchase lots of real estate in cities on the mainland. I don't see how an absorption of Taiwan into China similar to Hong Kong would be impossible anyway.

[belfastuniguy 18]

It's not really about getting along, they have no choice, u try running a country with PRC pointing missiles at you.

No they are Taiwanese...this may not have been reported in PRC as China does not have freedom of speech.....but in September the Democratic Progressive Party approved a resolution asserting separate identity from China and called for the enactment of a new constitution. So that doesn't really indicate the Taiwanese feel that close to PRC, despite what the communists say.

@Simfox, nothing wrong with being a political economist

[Godzillaman 21]

Answering the question, I say maybe because of what has happened so far with them. Their future looks darker before it gets brighter.

[SimFox 802]

Belfastguy - as long as political comes after economist and not when political views are determining "economic realities".

Just curious how many of you, high judges have ever been in China and particularly spent there some time and know intimately it's life and people?? It all looks like in Soviet time all the workers were OUTRAGED about Solzenitcin's "lies" never mind that not of the "workers" ever red any of it.. but still they were... all this "china debates" here and in numerous other forums really smack of that. I have VERY rarely met real Chinese (not those making living out of being decedents) who would share these views...

Taiwan/China is a such a tricky issue that I wouldn't come a mile to it! Let them resolve it on they own. Best world can do is just state that there couldn't be acceptance of forceful solution and that's it.

And speaking about democracy... since when had Taiwan become a democracy? and what was it all those decades which took it to where it is now? and how about South Korea, or Singapore, or Malaysia? Or even Hong Kong?? Isn't it peculiar that British decided to START building democracy there ONLY then they finally had to go? where was they democratic principals for a hundred years prior to that?

[belfastuniguy 18]

I've been to China, several times, some parts are nice, but generally I'm not too fond of the place, I prefer Japan.....

[BurroDiablo 222]

Originally posted by: Micah

Eventually, people will desire freedom over money.quote>

Both of wich we seem to be getting less of...

[coolotter88 2]

yeah, well resolutions don't mean anything, they're still Chinese, same language, came from same geographic areas, same cultures.

[panthersimcity4 162]

I say we deport Paris Hilton to China, but then their economy REALLY will collapse... or worse, millions of Chinese teens will be going "that's hot" all the time. *shudders* Like we don't get that enough here...

[Odainsaker 2,134]

Hmm, I remember asking a number of my foreign exchange student classmates where they were from, and they would answer "China." It then occurred to me to ask the followup, "Mainland China or Taiwan?" for which most at the time turned out to have been from Taiwan. I suppose fussing over whether the motherland is Zhonghua or Chunghwa will get us just as far, and maybe the current slippery indefiniteness of the One-China principle makes more sense and sanity than for which we give it credit.

I suppose the better question, whose answer will in the long term closely tie into the issues of Taiwan independence, would be not whether or not China will collapse, but rather "is China (in this case the PRC) making progress, what constitutes progress, and who is the judge?"  There is alot of historical ground being covered, and today's China, while not yet a shining model of a benevolent liberal open democracy, certainly looks nothing like the China of the Cultural Revolution and the Gang of Four.

[JDRCRASH 53]

It is ludicrous to believe that the Congressional Gold Medal awarded to the Dalai Lama today justifies Beijing's childish, irrational, and useless remarks towards the irrelevant economic and political relations with the United States. Observe Mahatma Gandhi...he tried to free India from the British in the 20th Century, and...he succeeded, but not before having a backlash of English politicians question America's alliance with Great Britain when "Time Magazine" honored Gandhi as "Man of the Year" in 1930.

[Callbat 8]

My two cents: People say that china is growing and that right now its only going through a few growing pains but these growing pains might and most likely will keep china from going any further. It doesnt have enough resources as it is, and predictions are not very bright. Its predicted that when the water well starts to go dry provincial fighting will erupt and massive border-wars will kill of many people. Also, as many on this forum have said , totalitarian rule never lasts more than a Cnetury (Unless your in the Middle Ages!). If China collapses i think its a good thing for everyone else, Russia and Iran will have one less allie to count on, American goods will actually be produced in America but the downside is it will cause massive wavs of Legal and Illegal Chinese immigrants to the Asian Sub-Continent and Most of Europe. But hopefully ours leaders will smarten up and pass laws and legislations to protect us.

[Micah 16]

Callbat: While I think that the Chinese economy will eventually collapse or go through a massive recession, I don't see how it would be beneficial for anyone. In fact, I see it doing the complete opposite. Currently, we are making the same mistakes as we did right before the Great Depression. Banks and investors are going wild at the moment, and were beginning to see the side effects (affects?). If China collapses, everyone collapses. The same can be said if America collapses. The only reason why the world didn't collapse when Soviet Russia collapsed because Soviet Russia didn't do massive investment like capitalistic counties do. Why does the "Second Great Depression" sound like a term my kids will learn in their history books?

Just curious, has there ever been a boom that hasn't ended in a recession? Many American booms that I can think of usually end in busts.

Also, as many on this forum have said , totalitarian rule never lasts more than a Cnetury (Unless your in the Middle Ages!).quote>

Completely true.

[Micah 16]

It appears China is beginning to slow down its economy before inflation sets in for its people.

But, based on this article, it's quite funny how they're doing it.

Link

[Callbat 8]

If China collapses, everyone collapses. The same can be said if America collapsesquote>

You can thank globilasation, something I am completely oppesed to.

If  China does collapse it will be a major slowdown for quite sometime as american market shelves will go empty until we can find some other Asian country to make rich.

And yes, I do think China will collapse...because all this investment is good and all but lets not forget the Chinese are a bunch of no-good communists. I hope for the sake of the Chinese and American people that the Chinese government collapses.

[belfastuniguy 18]

Interesting to bring new life into this thread esp at a time when the global market is shifting and trade is becoming more difficult. American consumers are spending less as are Europeans in light of higher interest rates, credit uncertainty, something very important in countries where most goods are purchased on credit or on the back or rising house prices and hence higher equity.

China may be becoming a economic power but if the consumers of the west stop spending and the banks stop lending or lend at much higher rates then that could prove a problem for countries like China.

[autoVino 26]

Originally posted by: belfastuniguy China may be becoming a economic power but if the consumers of the west stop spending and the banks stop lending or lend at much higher rates then that could prove a problem for countries like China.quote>

 

Which would be a problem for any country.  Why would anyone want to stop spending/lending money to such a quickly expaning market as China?  That woudl be unprofitable, and profit  drives many choices today.

Originally posted by CallbatAnd yes, I do think China will collapse...because all this investment is good and all but lets not forget the Chinese are a bunch of no-good communists. I hope for the sake of the Chinese and American people that the Chinese government collapses.quote>

that doesn't seem like a very nice thing to say about such a large group of people, quite a large stereotype you're imposing, but you're entitled to your opinion.  Communism is actually not bad at all, just completly against human nature, this is why Capitilism seems to work so well (and the same reason why I like capitilism, very naturla to compete with eachother).  Having a government collapse will cause more problems than having it there before.

I personally think (hope, knock on wood) that china won't collapse or fail in any way.

[Callbat 8]

Well autovino communism would be a good idea...if we were all emotionless robots!

And no, what I said I should rephrase, I meant I dont like the chinese LEADERS.

It just seems scary I guess that somebody with different ideals which are proven to be incorrect and unsuitible for rational humans is going to be the big booming voice in our world.

I prefer the Americans have the upper hand over the Chinese, simply because I agree more with capitalist vaulues and capitalist society. Also, being English I agree more with American practices

since they are for the most part our national children.

[yoshikoroyimara 5]

China is on a path to collapse...and how dare you bring communism into this...China isn't communist...it's more socialist...they claim they are...but doesn't North Korea claim they are communist, too? The world isn't putting enough pressure on this world power...they blame the US too much...and push China on the side. Imagine if Shanghai was wiped off the map...what would happen? Let's include Beijing in the destruction...China will collapse...they have too many regional competitors...and internal factions in which they deny...let's see...Tibet, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Taiwan (disputable), Russia, North Korea, Japan (yes...Japan, still), Vietnam, Inner Mongolia, West Turkmenistan, Indian and Pakistani territories, don't forget Myanmar...oh...even Hainan...and possibly Manchuria...even though that is nothing compared against the US...

What is holding China? The government. Why does the government have power? The economic importance in the world...and its world largest military...it's going to be an eternal circle. Because the government has power...it gives advantages to those who join the communist party (which is currently more than 2/3 of the population)...those members support the government/party for those advantages...and believe and have faith in its ordinances and policies. And I don't blame them...many live in the urban areas...which have seen an abundance of growth, economically...so why should they rebel?

Now imagine an embargo on China...although it seems unrealistic. The government would lose faith and trust from its people, thus losing its power...another revolution would most likely occur...racial splits would follow...bringing a "land grab" from neighboring countries...creating a regional conflict...thus leading to what the government likes to call a "snowball effect."

So far...its economy has been slowing...as other countries are becoming to lose confidence in its market...we have felt trembles of previous years from its unstable stock market. In addition, we have learned about the cheap materials used in our products...as a result from outsourcing due to the search for a cheaper production center. Cheap=cheap. It is only time until China can no longer rely on its economy because it will surely collapse from its instability. Also, China is not as rich as you think it is. It is in debt. Heavy debt. Communist promotions of free health care, low food prices, and of the such has taken a toll on the budget. Unfortunately...I cannot disclose further information from my documents. But let's conclude with this...if China does change dramatically, without its current government losing power...it might succeed in the world. But once again, if it doesn't...collapse is speculated within a century.

And don't mind my avatar...I'm no longer a communist...but instead...a radical socialist. The difference? I accept that communism cannot exist with human nature and conscience...but as a hard-liner socialist...I believe in many policies of communism...

[belfastuniguy 18]

@autovino companies will only invest if people in the west will buy the goods. The Chinese market is growing but is no-where near as sophisticated as western developed markets. Companies will still invest in China but remember that is also subject to how the stock market treats their value and revenue as well as their wider investments. If those fall then investment in foreign markets will slow until conditions pick up again. The potential of China is huge but it's pointless for a company to pour in money when it's value is falling.

In relation to other countries, yes investment will also slow in those places, but the west is already developed and has a pretty secure and solid economic/market base, unlike China.

@yoshi, China is certainly not socialist, some of her people including yourself may have socialist ideas and desires, but China is most certainly not a socialist nation and is far from it.