Will China collapse soon?

[patriots_1228 51]

government limits the internet because they dont want the people to get information that might lead to some sort of "anti-chinese government" thing or see china in its true form.

Your "real china" is the china they want you, the people, to beleive in.

The funny thing is, we have a better view of the real "real china" than most citizens.

[fukuda 351]

Originally posted by: patriots_1228The funny thing is, we have a better view of the real "real china" than most citizens.quote>

I'm not so sure about it.

Yes, we have the means to know how is the "real china" (if such a thing exists) but the huge majority of people out of China has a biased and false view of the country too. Having the information at hand doesn't mean that we are well informed about it.

[ilikehotdogsalot 308]

Pat, how can you say that when you've never even been to China?

[patriots_1228 51]

Easily. As a normal american I have access to tons more information on China and what goes on there than most Chinese people. Obviously, they are better understood about the culture, daily life, etc., but when I say real china, i mean the government, and what is really going on with the Chinese government.

I.e., do most Chinese people know about all those stunts they pulled in the olympics? [the fake singer, photoshopped fireworks, underage gymnasts] or what the situation in Tibet really is like? How many Chinese people have ever seen an image from the tianamin square incident? etc, etc,

[fukuda 351]

Easily. As a normal american I have access to tons more information on Chinaquote>

Danger zone, first of, what kind of information and sources? And second, it's relatively easy to pass through the great firewall of china, and there are tons of chinese peeps that are able (and do it everyday) to surf the net more or less freely even if they live in china.

I.e., do most Chinese people know about all those stunts they pulled in the olympics? [the fake singer, photoshopped fireworks, underage gymnasts]quote>

So what? It's not like there weren't stunts in the Barcelona Olympics 

OMG! Photoshopped fireworks! Unforgivable!

or what the situation in Tibet really is like?quote>

? We know nothing really trustful about it.. Especially when our journalists ain't allowed to enter the zone. Something happens, that's for sure, but we don't really know what's happening there right now.

I'm not condoning what the PRC government does, but people should be a bit more careful about their sources and the inherent bias in all the media

[your_adress_here 11]

Originally posted by: patriots_1228 Easily. As a normal american I have access to tons more information on China and what goes on there than most Chinese people. Obviously, they are better understood about the culture, daily life, etc., but when I say real china, i mean the government, and what is really going on with the Chinese government.

I.e., do most Chinese people know about all those stunts they pulled in the olympics? [the fake singer, photoshopped fireworks, underage gymnasts] or what the situation in Tibet really is like? How many Chinese people have ever seen an image from the tianamin square incident? etc, etc,quote>

All you know is what the media has told you.

[patriots_1228 51]

Photoshopped fireworks is a horrible sin. Incredibly offensive.

nah..lol.

[hamsterTK 93]

Who knows. I don't think the Chinese are acting much different than many Americans do, seeing things in black and white, thinking their country is the best, etc. Every country gets like that at some point in its history.

Increasingly I worry about the US also getting in on internet censorship. Who knows, right now some of the 404's you see might be fake. Arresting someone would be as easy as charging them with having kiddie porn or something. Nobody would disbelieve it nor would they want to defend someone they think is a pedophile. Never trust authority.

[duack 14]

Nah China wont fall - very unlikely. Whats happening in China now is what happened in Japan about 50 years ago. Its just growing really fast because of western country's demand for goods. Of course, when this happens the economy grows really fast and government policies can't keep up. In Japan, which is more densely populated than China and therefore more polluted, there was a lot of stuff like this like minnamata disease and all that. But now, Japan is wealthier per capita than the US is. 

I hate articles like the one at the start of this topic. They always make things seem like they are worse than they actually are to basically scare people into reading them whihc gives the company better ratings. In australia, its called today tonight

[saltandsauce 0]

umm china will fall since the west is sort  of how you say - skint

[nazaguy 0]

China will fall as soon as the rest of the world does. They have been a unified country since the time Rome was a small village with a well (well, mostly anyway). I don't think China, or even the current Chinese government will fall.

[Shadow Assassin 336]

In Japan, which is more densely populated than China and therefore more polluted, there was a lot of stuff like this like minnamata disease and all that. But now, Japan is wealthier per capita than the US is. quote>

Japan is not more polluted than China: density does not equal pollution. If anything it's less nowadays because they mainly do high-tech stuff, rather than the traditional "dirty" industries that are so popular in China because it's cheaper there...

[qinbenjiaren 0]

so many posts. can't read them all. but China will not fall, and India, China+Russia+Japan, Europe and US together will form a FOUR superpowers of the world. wars are likely to happen, because too many super powers will bring war.

[belfastuniguy 18]

well~~~uk should show us,let NORTHERN IRELAND to be independent.... quote>

Logic failure much?? That would require a majority of people in Northern Ireland approving that, which is FAR from happening. Best you resign yourself some making statements on issues you have no notion of understanding. Otherwise I shall have to respond in my typical vigour.

As for China, I don't like the censorship and denial of basic civil rights. But then again not the first time a country has done such things, so really not many people can get all 'offended' and condemn and declare their nation superior.

Economy wise, the Chinese economy is already failing. a sharp fall in western consumer demand has led to hundreds if not thousands of factory closures in China as well as protests at the inability of the government to respond. I have seen a good many sources that show the Chinese government unable to calm the situation and really they have no idea what to do and how to act. Their people have been relatively satisfied to go without some freedoms in favour of an exploding economy and growing consumer wealth. That is now under threat and the response of the people will be very telling.

[hamsterTK 93]

Can I ask again what "collapse" even means? Honestly, what social and economic fault lines exist for it to split apart? It's government might change a lot, maybe.

China will eventually evolve and change like every country. Obviously we all know that a "harmonious society" is a huge oxymoron and that they'll figure it out the hard way. But in the long run what makes people think that China will just fall apart and go away? Because it won't.

[duack 14]

Yeah people often confuse the word "collapse" with the word "reform". I mean, if the government in China were to reform and change to be more democratic, then the old one would have to collapse. 

Also, why do people say many super powers create more war? europe and the US have managed to co-exist peacefully for the last 100 years. Even after Japan joined in they have managed peace. And also, All the main superpowers are allied and I dont think allies have wars between each other.

Plus there could be another reason why China blocks so many websites. Maybe one of the reasons is because China is growing fast. Like really fast. And obviously infrastructure projects, especially big things like internet access, dont grow as fast as factories that have just outsourced to China. This would mean that although demand for internet is high, supply is low so in order to maintain efficiency, and to ensure businessess have the best access to the internet, the government blocks things that wouldn't help the economy. I mean honestly, how are articles titled "The 10 steps to wieght loss" and "brangelina have their millionth child" seriously going to benefit China? . But once their economy naturally begins to slow as it becomes more developed, these large projects will eventually "catch up" to the private sector's growth. I call it the duack theory becasue i just made it up now  

[Wiecher 192]

Originally posted by: patriots_1228 Easily. As a normal american I have access to tons more information on China and what goes on there than most Chinese people. Obviously, they are better understood about the culture, daily life, etc., but when I say real china, i mean the government, and what is really going on with the Chinese government.

I.e., do most Chinese people know about all those stunts they pulled in the olympics? [the fake singer, photoshopped fireworks, underage gymnasts] or what the situation in Tibet really is like? How many Chinese people have ever seen an image from the tianamin square incident? etc, etc,quote>

 

Did you knew Bush is a war criminal before obama became president? did you knew about guantanamo bay and all the innocent people in there?

do you know your america? the real america?

you said it yourself:

Your "real china" is the china they want you, the people, to beleive in.quote>

just change the word "china" into "america".....

[saltandsauce 0]

i would say now that it is official that the western world is skint and in recession, China won't be able to sell us anything

[suomi2005 52]

I think China is heading in a better direction and I also think democracy will be the future in China but I don't think they are ready for it yet. There are still many things to do before that can happen I think when China reaches an more developed state of wellfare more freedoms starts to become aveilable for the pepole as we have witnessed allready but this would happen slowly maybe sometimes closer to 2050 China could be a real democracy. China is makeing huge efforts in improveing living conditions in many ways. China is faceing huge problems but they aren't ignoring them. I alos know that human rights aren't followed in China and that the pepole are unawear of what theire goverment is doeing and about the situation in Tibet. China is atleast heading somewhere and if China would fall I think it would be because of some global event like climate change or global warfare. Take a look at our own history in the west and you see what a long way we have come since kolonialism, slavery and extrem nationalism and it didn't happen over one night.

[Barbarossa 51]

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  Edited September 7, 2012 by Barbarossa  

[Micah 16]

Did you knew Bush is a war criminal before obama became president? did you knew about guantanamo bay and all the innocent people in there?

do you know your america? the real america?

you said it yourself:

Your "real china" is the china they want you, the people, to beleive in.quote>

just change the word "china" into "america".....quote>

 

I don't quite see the point you were trying to raise because seeing how that's all opinion, then yes. Because of the freedom we have, we have the right to voice our opinion. Since we have different information brought forth to us, we can decide how to respond to it. You can't do that in China... they have state run television and they limit access to the outside world. In America, you can watch whatever you want to. Many channels from around the world can be viewed in the States.

[Shadow Assassin 336]

Yeah people often confuse the word "collapse" with the word "reform". I mean, if the government in China were to reform and change to be more democratic, then the old one would have to collapse.quote>

Only problem, is that we don't know what will happen if the current Communist government collapses. Will another Communist government rise to take its place? We don't know. There is one constant, and that is people do desire stability, in some way, deep down. The government has given them that sort of stability, even if its methods are sometimes questionable. We can't bring that government down for that reason... they have to do it themselves. And this is what certain governments (I'm not naming names!) need to learn.

Also, why do people say many super powers create more war? europe and the US have managed to co-exist peacefully for the last 100 years. Even after Japan joined in they have managed peace. And also, All the main superpowers are allied and I dont think allies have wars between each other.quote>

Imagine two big guys in a small room. Sooner or later, one will have to stretch out. And we don't know what will happen, again. Europe and America only co-exist peacefully because its in their own interests. It's all about politics - Europe would ditch America straight away (and vice versa) if that benefit to them were to suddenly end. Let's just say, hypothetically... they rely on the US keeping their nuclear arsenal under control, while the US rely on the threat of nukes to keep the Europeans in line. The same thing happens here, it's all give-and-take. Obviously, this allied agreement is mutually beneficial, otherwise there wouldn't be such an agreement. Look at the US and the USSR. They didn't go into all-out war because they knew a preemptive strike would knock each other out - such is the whole idea of mutually-assured destruction. Self-preservation comes first, people!

Plus there could be another reason why China blocks so many websites. Maybe one of the reasons is because China is growing fast. Like really fast. And obviously infrastructure projects, especially big things like internet access, dont grow as fast as factories that have just outsourced to China. This would mean that although demand for internet is high, supply is low so in order to maintain efficiency, and to ensure businessess have the best access to the internet, the government blocks things that wouldn't help the economy. I mean honestly, how are articles titled "The 10 steps to wieght loss" and "brangelina have their millionth child" seriously going to benefit China? . But once their economy naturally begins to slow as it becomes more developed, these large projects will eventually "catch up" to the private sector's growth. I call it the duack theory becasue i just made it up nowquote>

I'll say this: people do not like change. Especially those in power. There may be a lot of reasons why the government filter the internet - some more sinister than others... but how are we to know without asking them? Until then, we can only hypothesise why they're blocking sites that they've deemed "subversive" according to whatever their agenda may be.

*shrug* My ramblings at 1.30am. Enjoy.

[duack 14]

Yeah but what Im saying is all the superpowers are allied. Throw a bunch of small guys in that room and they'll be the first to be beaten - especially if theyre enemies of the big guys. And another thing Ive noticed with the different countries relations is that they all tend to hate the same countries. eg, India is enemies with Pakistan, who are allies with the middle east. China tends to be enemies with muslim nations, especially the midle east. the US and Europe have a strong alliance with Isreal, who is also enemies with some middle eastern countries. I dont know about Russia. On top of this, middle eastern countries have wars with each other and also have many civil wars because of the instability in that region. So it seems to me as if thyve all ganged up on one guy. I think we'd know who the winner would be in this case. (phew Im on the winning side )

Anywho on the topic of China's economy, I keep hearing people saying that western demand has slowed, so that means China wont grow. That's not neccasarily the case. China has experienced a rise of a middle class recently and has its own consumer market. Now, at most it would only be about 150 million people (I think thats roughly the size of the services sector in China. I know its at least 10%). But this means that even if demand from other countries stopped, China would have enough to keep growing, although at a much slower rate. Also its not like reccessions last forever. Demand will be higher than ever as soon as the reccession ends in a couple of years at the most.

[JackUH 0]

My answer:

1) I don't think China will collapse, for now. Yes, it's in an economic jam, but so is the rest of the world. I don't think it will destabilize to the point of the government being thrown into chaos. HOWEVER, this is assuming that another black swan will not come along. If Uighurs start an uprising, if Taiwan declares independence, if the bird flu pandemic pops up all bets are off.

2) China will not become a democracy for the foreseeable future. I don't see the fundamentals for a peaceful transition into democratic rule. Comparisons with Czechoslovakia are inappropriate, since the Czech's had a tradition of democracy. Comparisons to Japan are also incorrect, because Japan and Korea had HUGE Western influence in the post-war period. So the country can't pull a Velvet Revolution AND it can't be pressured or encouraged by foreign powers to go democratic. And just to make the human rights people aware, you can't embargo it into democracy like South Africa, because it's economy is too big. Most of the interior is still rural and poor, and nearly everyone still supports the CCP. What I do see is increased government centralization (people view local governments as corrupt and want the central government to help with every problem from snowstorms to the milk scandals) and more calls to nationalism ('08 Olympics Torch Relay showed a small sign of that).

Beyond that, the best way to predict what the CCP will do is to think like them, and the only thing they are thinking of is how to perpetuate their continued political rule. And thinking from this perspective, democratization is a big mistake. The CCP looks at examples like the Former Soviet Union and India and nearly soils itself at the thought of either becoming a crony authoritarian thug state, or a sclerotic democracy with a congress crippled by parties drawn along ethno-religious lines and the entire former Republic split into India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

3) I think it's easy for mysu to talk big on how Taiwan belongs to China, because he probably wouldn't fight in a war to "Liberate Taiwan". I don't take sides in the independence/reunification debate and agree with American policy to let Taiwan sort it out for itself. But I will say that most people from Taiwan are like me: An invasion of the island is an invasion of the people and families living on the island. It would instantly unite the island, not in the whole intangible independence issue, but the much more tangible "these guys are trying to kill us" issue.

[WC_EEND 9]

The only Chinese thing that will "collapse" if you ask me is the faking industry (eg: fake medicines, electronics, etc), because as the Chinese people get richer they'll start buying the real stuff because it has now become affortable for them. The only exeption to this in my eyes is clothing, since you can get normally high priced clothes for practically nothing and they don't har your health

[RedImperator 16]

China is running headlong into very serious trouble--global oil production peaked in 2005, and will go into terminal decline sometime in the next decade. Once that happens, China won't have access to the cheap petroleum needed to maintain their export economy, the West won't have the money to spend on vast piles of disposable luxury goods, the government will be unable to keep their growing middle class supplied with Western luxuries like automobiles, and (perhaps most importantly for China) the price of chemical fertilizers and pesticides will soar. Of course, as an American, I have no room to gloat: the United States is even less prepared for the future.

[duack 14]

I must stop you there, redimperator. Oil has not yet peaked. The slow price rises before the recession were hardly skyrocketing. They may have seemed high, but if peak oil was reached, they would have risen way higher. Some people thought oil peaked in the 60's. It didn't. Some people thought it peaked in the 70's. It didn't. And its hardly peaking now. Even if we have reached peaked oil in 2005, this recession would reduce oil demand for a while, giving us a chance to drill more reservoirs during this short period, so that we have a head start in the oil race once the economy speeds up again.

Also, you said that China would handle oil shortages better than the US would, but thats not true either. Sure, oil shortages wont affect China as much as it would the US, because most of China's workforce are poor and would be willing to walk three hours to get to work, whilst in the US, people would stop working. But, the US has more universities and researchers to be able to find an alternative, as the US is more educated than China. Also, the agricultural capacity of the US will at least ensure that it always has the option of using biofuels, seeing as how the US produces way more food than it needs, whereas China's agricultural production isn't as high as that of the US. (not really sure about that last point)