2012 Tropical Cyclone Season

[RipRap 4,400]

According to this website, "We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high."

Let's start off with:

[Waterclaw 80]

I wonder if I'll see Tropical storm, or even Hurricane Michael, my name . It's odd though, a tropical storm developing off the coast of Carolina? I know it's possible, but how rare really is that?

[Easy Bakes 253]

Not that rare.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Carolina_hurricanes

that's just N Carolina but i cant see one hitting N Carolina that would not affect S Carolina

[Alejandro24 575]

But and his forecast for 5 days. Actually, here is cloudy with fresh air. Finally there is a hope of rains, finishing the drought of spring.

[RipRap 4,400]

I think this might turn into a tropical storm in the coming hours to days.

Severe Tropical Storm Sanvu has also formed into the Pacific's Second Typhoon of the season (according to SSHS), although it will not be making landfall on land.

Hurricane Bud became the first major hurricane of the Pacific Hurricane Season. It has since been weakened but a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.

[RipRap 4,400]

Merge above if needed

Mawar is strengthening into a typhoon as this was posted, So far, this would not make landfall according to the forecast.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Looks like this one will pretty much track out to sea and miss Japan.

[RipRap 4,400]

Yep, it did that. D:

Now we are tracking out this tropical depression in the Pacific that is will turn into a typhoon according to the forecast.

[Alejandro24 575]

Hurricane Carlotta, category 2 SSHS:

[RipRap 4,400]

See my last post for the latest on Typhoon Guchol.

Typhoon Guchol has turned into a monster Category 4 typhoon. Also, this time, unlike the previous storms (Mawar and Sanvu), this storm is definitely going to hit Japan at approximately 15:00 GMT in the evening on June 19, 2012. It is expected to weaken to a category 1 storm but expect torrential rains in the area.

[Alejandro24 575]

Why the cyclones in the west pacific grow a lot?

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

To put it mildly, they have a bigger machine than the south Atlantic. The Pacific is the largest expanse of evaporator we have. The engine consists of saturated atmosphere and the Coriolis force. The Pacific Ocean is one good example of a misnomer.

[RipRap 4,400]

Nonny is right, and with a mix of a developing El Nino, the cyclones would be bigger than expected.

Another storm has formed in the past 24 hours. It has been named "Talim", meaning "sharp" in Filipino.

[Alejandro24 575]

Well, its right. Compared with east Pacific, west Pacific are more active with the tropical cyclones.

After Carlotta, there is only a storm with the code name Invest 95:

[RipRap 4,400]

...And we have the Atlantic Ocean's First Hurricane, Chris.

It's not expected to make a landfall according to this forecast.

[Duke87 1,070]

How exactly is it a tropical storm if it formed north of 40 degrees?

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

North of 40S is nearer the equator. Are you thinking in the wrong hemisphere?

[Alejandro24 575]

How exactly is it a tropical storm if it formed north of 40 degrees?

Then it is an extratropical cyclon. All the cyclonic systems formed in the north hemisphere between 30° and 60° of latitude are classified as extratropical. In the case of south hemisphere are between 30° and 70°.

  Edited June 21, 2012 by Alejandro24  

[RipRap 4,400]

Tropical Storm Debby:

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012

100 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER

FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY

YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. DEBBY HAS

BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LITTLE

MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS

FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT

48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...

325 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF

THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL

CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING

WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT

THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...4 TO 6 FT

FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...2 TO 4 FT

COASTAL ALABAMA EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF

ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE

TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER

SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE

SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF

10 TO 15 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURROUNDING

THIS AREA...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED

OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND

WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE

FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN

ALABAMA.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL

ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN

FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA.

NEXT ADVISORY

[un1 40]

How exactly is it a tropical storm if it formed north of 40 degrees?

Sorry for my lateness;

There are 3 types of cyclones, extratropical (cold core), tropical (warm core) and subtropical (hybrid). To be a warm core cyclone the storm must have a lot of deep thunderstorms that comes from the warmth of the water. Now in the case of Chris, he was over the Gulf Stream, but over waters of 22C which is nearly 6C below the normal temperature needed for a hurricane. What he did is he was under a cold core upper level low which gave him a lot of support to fire thunderstorms and lowered anything that was too negative for development. Since the water was warm enough and he was moving slowly he was able to organize his little amount of thunderstorms into a tiny but rare hurricane.

Other examples of this is Vince from 2005 and Grace from 2009.

[Jazzmaster 716]

Tropical Storm Debby left her mark in Tampa Bay. Quite a bit of flooding was seen here, with between half a foot and a foot of rain depending on where you were. Some trees got blown over in my old neighborhood. A lot of the flooding has subsided and most roads are passable, but then again there's this....

[RipRap 4,400]

D: soil erosion, though Debby is a disorganized tropical low, she was able to still pack a punch

As of this time, there are currently 2 tropical cyclones in different hemispheres.

and

[RipRap 4,400]

The season is very quiet right now, with 1 storm currently brewing in the South China Sea.