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About un1

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    Rural Architect

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    Thunder Bay, Ontario

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  1. I've tracked tropical cyclones globally for a few years now, and this storm was truly horrifying. To compare it to any storm that ever existed is foolish. There is no aircraft that fly into Western Pacific typhoons (why not? no idea) anymore, so we could only go off of satellite estimates. The Dvorak technique is what is commonly used. Haiyan, at peak intensity, looked unlike anything I'd ever seen. The storm was so amazing, it broke Dvorak, which at one point gave it a "8.1" rating, which is impossible since the scale stops at T8.0. Dvorak had no ability to comprehend that a storm this perfect could exist. The cloud tops surrounding the eye were too cold and the eye was too warm for it. Notice the ring of cold clouds that go above the scale directly around the eye. What made Haiyan like this? I honestly have no idea. The storm was only initially supposed to make landfall at the very minimal super typhoon status (130kts, 150mph). It explosively intensified two days before landfall, and had only barely reached category 5 status at that point (140kts, 160mph). Usually storms like this weaken abruptly right as it reaches peak intensity near the lower end of category 5 (think Katrina, Rita etc). I remember saying to someone (no one in the storm path) that Haiyan didn't seem likely to even be super typhoon at landfall just because of how storms like this never intensify much past 150kts (175mph). Haiyan didn't stop. This loop basically starts at how it looked when I told that guy it should weaken, right up until landfall. Dvorak reaches T8.0 once a decade maybe, I remember waking up about 12 hours before landfall and my heart sank once I saw the fateful T8.0. It was clear at that moment that this storm would be just terrible, no matter what anyone did to try and make it better. At that time it had reached previous world record intensity, 165kts (190mph). The storm kept strengthening during the last hours before landfall. The clouds continued to get colder, the eye more round and the storm more symmetric. JTWC upgraded it to the now global record intensity, 170kts (195mph) a few hours before landfall. At this point, the storm had the appearance unlike anyone had ever seen since the satellite era. It made landfall not long later, on Guiunan, Philippines. This is why it's considered the strongest storm to ever make landfall. Was it really? Dvorak typically underestimates storms, but we have no precedent for Haiyan, so we can only guess that it really was. As horrible as Haiyan was, it was moving incredibly fast. This saved the landfall areas from flash flooding (main killer in cyclones), although it made surge worse and gave it that "it was like a tsunami" feel. The last report from Guiunan (where the storm made landfall) was about 2 and a half hours before landfall. They measured 100mph winds and 977mb pressure. That was the last anyone heard about that city until nearly 4 days after the storm. Nothing could've made anyone prepared for this storm. The area isn't likely to get a storm this horrible this for a millennium, even then a storm this strong happens maybe twice a century globally. This is a horrifying comparison of Haiyan at landfall to Katrina at peak intensity (same IR enhancement). Katrina hardly has any -75C cloud tops, whereas Haiyan is basically just -80C cloud tops. Katrina was much weaker at landfall as well.
  2. Death by inactivity!
  3. Hurricane Sandy

    In this situation damage describes the severity of the storm much better than death toll. It's sadly true that storms regularly cause 100s of deaths globally every year. However, it's very rare for a storm to cause more than $10 billion in damages though.
  4. Hurricane Sandy

    102 people confirmed dead (was at 67 before landfall on New Jersey). Deadliest atlantic hurricane since 2010. Initial damage reports suggest at least $20 billion in damage, but some go upwards of $50 billion. For the record, the 5th costliest atlantic hurricane of all time is Irene, at $19 billion in damages. The costliest is Katrina at $100 billion in damages and second costliest is Ike at $37 billion. This seems to have a shot at beating Ike for second place in damage totals for the Atlantic basin.
  5. Hurricane Sandy

    So after a rather "blustery" night in the northeast, it would appear that most of the damage has been done. Lower Manhattan experienced record storm surge and has been flooded, and a bunch of New Jersey cities have also been completely flooded. Of course, these are night time reports and we will have a better idea tomorrow in the morning. Although it would appear that for now Duke's concern about the subway lines being flooded has come true. It seems the situation is grim. It would also appear that the fatalities will exceed 80-100. With 67 being confirmed in the Caribbean and so far 11 being confirmed in the United States, 6 of those in NYC. Won't go into much detail on the damage although I would like to point out the significance of this storm. A storm like this, honestly, is something I would never expect to see in my lifetime. It's rare enough to get a strong storm like this north of the Caribbean, but Sandy was nearly a category 2 hurricane at landfall (with pressure and size nearing category 4 strength). Conditions were absolutely insane for this to happen. So in direct response to Sgt Pepper, no way this was overhyped. This thing was almost automatically going to be way worse than anything Louisiana has seen since Rita in 2005. I wish the people of the NEUS the best of luck while rebuilding! Sandy at peak windspeed right before landfall on Cuba. Sandy at lowest pressure (940mb, lowest out of any hurricane this year) right before landfall on New Jersey.
  6. 2012 Tropical Cyclone Season

    Sorry for my lateness; There are 3 types of cyclones, extratropical (cold core), tropical (warm core) and subtropical (hybrid). To be a warm core cyclone the storm must have a lot of deep thunderstorms that comes from the warmth of the water. Now in the case of Chris, he was over the Gulf Stream, but over waters of 22C which is nearly 6C below the normal temperature needed for a hurricane. What he did is he was under a cold core upper level low which gave him a lot of support to fire thunderstorms and lowered anything that was too negative for development. Since the water was warm enough and he was moving slowly he was able to organize his little amount of thunderstorms into a tiny but rare hurricane. Other examples of this is Vince from 2005 and Grace from 2009.
  7. The 10,000 Post Thread v2

    7639. Seems to have slowed down lately.
  8. The Simtropolis Annuarians Club

    4 years...and one day. Can't believe I forgot yesterday.
  9. MAYDAY! The chat room's cockpit is empty without you un1! There is no one flying social lobby for us D:

  10. Conservative or Liberal?

    I'm around here on the political compass: http://www.politicalcompass.org/facebook/pcgraphpng.php?ec=-6.38&soc=-2.41 Economic Left/Right: -6.38 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.41 Which makes me independent. Economically, I support full state control on the economy. Not sure why, but I've developed a hatred towards businesses. However, I am a supporter of Keynesian economics. Socially, I support freedoms, and I do not put much focus onto them. I'm more laissez-faire on this side. Although, I am not a huge fan of freedom of religion (I am strongly atheist). I'm not a huge fan of freedom of media either, they have biases and can be very wrong when that freedom exists. I would rather everything be biased to the state. Overall, my views are pretty crazy, and that's how I like it!
  11. Congrats cacks and dta!
  12. On the topic of history classes in high school, I am currently in the Ontario required Canadian history course in grade 10 covering the era after what we learned in grade 8 (which was colonization and independence). I was pretty amazed as to how much they fit into the course, we covered over many topics about the Boer wars, the social changes and the prosperity under Laurier, WW1, the great depression and tons about WW2 (including the holocaust, Hitler's rise to power and a surprising amount on the Soviet offensive). Looking forward in the textbook to the cold war, it covers a fair amount on the main topics of Korea, Cuban Missile Crisis, Vietnam and the dissolution of the USSR. We will probably run out of time and only discuss those topics in minor detail, but it really amazed me as to how much we crammed into a few months, and how many people are actually failing the course. Back onto the topic though, the US is no where near the point that would allow for an extremist to be easily allowed into power. I know some people would jump on board if there was a "Hitler"-esque person around who promised better times via extremism (in the view of a republican, would that make Obama a soviet hitler?), and I'm sure that he could eventually get into power. Although, any attempts at taking too many rights away at once would not be possible and I'm sure after the first skipped election a large revolt would happen. At this time of course...the global outlook for 2012 does looks gloomy, so you never know how much this post might change in 1 year....
  13. The first video game I played was Pokemon: Fire Red version, but it was Sim City 4 which made me get addicted to computer gaming. I still haven't played a console game in my life and I'm proud of that!
  14. World Affairs

    No, doing that would've been completely stupid. Truman was right here. The USSR wouldn't have died without killing hundreds of millions and completely burning everything in the world to the ground. The Soviet Union wouldn't have fallen easily either, the country is too vast to nuke to the ground and invade, and they had the resources, as they showed in WW2, to build a huge military in a few years and mobilize it quickly while using the advantage of the winter to starve enemies. A war with the Soviets would've been horrible for both sides. The US and allies might've had a chance to win a war against the USSR and allies before they found nuclear weapon technology and before they rebuilt after WW2...but after that and until 91 the USSR wouldn't have fallen without a massive and bloody fight. I'm sure that a large hole would've been blown out of the Earth's population had the Cold War escalated into a real war.