Russia may invade Poland

[SimHoTToDDy 2,939]

And people were worried about the LHC! Now the world has something real to think over. I dont think I'll be the only one watching closely at how this all plays out.

Is it too late to call shenanigans on Russia?

Oh, and remember kids; In Soviet Russia, road forks YOU!

-Todd

[Ntq€310 1]

wow russia certainly one to make threats....aganist the worlds strongerst military allaince..............with a laready weaken military......

[szarkoz 8]

I don't know if anybody here in Poland takes seriously those threatenings. All news stations are more concerned about the bad weather right now

[krbe 193]

Fear not. If it's only a pile of mud now, it's going to get better

[Patricius Maximus 236]

Invade Poland? Remember the Non-Agression pact they signed with the Nazis in 1939?

Then Russia took over half of Poland, and Germany had the other.

They could do it again. The US is bogged down in the Middle East, which only leaves a few thousand men left elsewhere. Their only fear would be the defenses of the European countries.

[patriots_1228 51]

^the US has what, 100,000 at the most in the middleeast?

our military is capable of reaching 40-50 million within days. I think in wars like a US-Russia war, WWII, and WWI, a draft is completely necessary. I don't think we will have any trouble with numbers with a draft + increased recruits. afterall, think of how many americans would jump at the chance to anhilate russia.

Its like telling me i can go play for the Red Sox against the Yankees.

fighting in the middle east is like playing for the Sox agaisnt the toledo mud hens.

[hym 358]

Originally posted by: patriots_1228 ^the US has what, 100,000 at the most in the middleeast?

our military is capable of reaching 40-50 million within days. I think in wars like a US-Russia war, WWII, and WWI, a draft is completely necessary. I don't think we will have any trouble with numbers with a draft + increased recruits. afterall, think of how many americans would jump at the chance to anhilate russia.

Its like telling me i can go play for the Red Sox against the Yankees.

fighting in the middle east is like playing for the Sox agaisnt the toledo mud hens.quote>

A draft may be necessary, but it's something the US military doesn't want.  The lessons it learned from Vietnam weren't positive ones.

EDIT:  Additionally, factor in that following the "peace, love, and understanding" idealism of the 60's and 70's, there is a significant undercurrent of the American population that doesn't want war.  Yes, millions would enlist or be drafted, but there would also be millions who would be opposed, potentially violently so.

[ShortStraw 1]

It is mind numbingly depressing that with all the problems the U.S. and Russia are experiencing these days we have the audacity to taunt one another with our bombs. If we blow each other up, well I guess we deserve every bit of horror and mayhem we get.

[krbe 193]

Originally posted by: Patricius Maximus Invade Poland? Remember the Non-Agression pact they signed with the Nazis in 1939?

Then Russia took over half of Poland, and Germany had the other.

They could do it again. The US is bogged down in the Middle East, which only leaves a few thousand men left elsewhere. Their only fear would be the defenses of the European countries.quote>

Remember the North Atlantic Treaty's Article 5?

[Cobra_nVidia 30]

Originally posted by: Duke87

Originally posted by: patriots_1228 in an American Russian conflict, the americans are the 300 spartans, only their are 40-50 million "Spartans". Now toss in, o, lets go on the short end and say 100 million soldiers from NATO, EU, and the rest of the world. Moscow would be hell in a matter of days.

Don't [Calm down please.] with the U-S-A mother russia.quote>

Yeah, except that the Spartans lost that war.

Your analogies need work. quote>

The Battle of Thermopylae was not a war. And, in case the movie you are basing history on did not make it clear, the Spartan army and its greek allies most certainly defeated the Persians and pushed them out of Greece.

[szarkoz 8]

Originally posted by: Patricius Maximus Invade Poland? Remember the Non-Agression pact they signed with the Nazis in 1939?

Then Russia took over half of Poland, and Germany had the other.

They could do it again. .quote>

Umm, did you just suggest that Russia could sign a pact with Germany to attack Poland like in 1939?

[Odainsaker 2,136]

It may seem counterintuitive for defense systems meant to intercept incoming Iranian missiles to be positioned in Poland, and perhaps maybe it really is a cynical ploy to threaten hapless Russia and upset the balance of world power.  However, we must remember that the surface of the Earth is spherical, and the shortest distance between two points is not necessarily a straight line drawn on a flat map.

This brief page on Great Circle pathing has a great illustration from which we can see that missiles launched from Iran will not fly toward New York along the 40th parallel of latitude over the Mediterranean, but will instead fly over the area of the Caucuses, Black Sea, Ukraine, and then NATO Poland and Czech Republic.  It may be that NATO Turkey is too close to Iran to respond effectively after an Iranian launch has been detected as the missiles would already be outbound away from the Turkish-Iranian zone heading towards eastern Europe and getting steadily farther away from Turkey.  Hence, sites in eastern Europe may likely make the best sense to track and intercept the incoming and overflying missiles.

For similar reasons during the Cold War, Russian bombers and missiles were not likely to fly over Europe and the North Atlantic to reach the U.S., but instead would fly over the North Pole and Canada, thus making Canada critical to U.S. strategic defense.  Similarly, aircraft such as non-stop jumbo passanger planes heading for Asia from the U.S. would skirt by Alaska and pass near Kamchatka...so close that supposedly minor navigational mistakes would lead the Boeing 747 Korean Air Lines Flight 007 to deviate into restricted Soviet airspace and get shot down by Soviet interceptors in 1983.  There were no survivors in that shocking Cold War incident.

Of course, Poland is next to Belarus and western Russia, and I'm sure multiple military options from that happy convenience have been fully explored when it comes to stationing U.S. missiles within Poland.  Russia, which in the past has seen Western ideologies turn into all-out Western invasions, has been recently facing the prospect of rival NATO countries and potential NATO countries encircling its European heartland, and I am sure Moscow's military planners are not pleased.  Just remember, Soviet Russia in the past had no qualms shooting down loaded jumbo jets and quashing satellite states while ignoring international outcry, and Putin's Russia may prove no different.

[patriots_1228 51]

well, like i said, its more appealing to a soldier to be fighting in a big honorable world war or defending america from russia then it is to be in some silly 3rd world country like vietnam or iraq....

[JanYpe 17]

Originally posted by: belfastuniguy To be honest what Poland and the United States agrees regarding missile technology is not the business of Russia. Russia is clearly paranoid as it knows its a weaker force and hates the idea of being surrounded by 'bad Americans and their bombs'.

The missile shield does need to have radar and intercept missiles outside the United States, it means missiles launched from say Iran can be more quickly tracked and destroyed. Hence missiles in Poland and Radar in the United Kingdom and Czech Republic (their parliament has just to approve the basing of radar facilities)quote>

I don't disagree with you, but from the Cold War point of view their objections aren't that crazy.  With the two equal nuclear powers then, the threat of Mutual Assured Destruction made sure neither side would launch a first strike since there was no way of winning. A missile shield then wouldn't be a defensive measure but an offensive one, since it upset this balance by giving the side with the shield an advantage.

Russia, however, very much lost the Cold War, so the old scenario doesn't apply and this is nationalist rattling with rusty sabers.

Russia should just shut up and quit trying to intimidate its neighbouring nations. Lets also remember that Poland is boarded by Germany and I can assure you, Germany would not tolerate Russia invading Poland, nor would the nations of the EU. Poland is not Georgia....such talk will only make the state of relations with Russia far worse.quote>

Not tolerating it is step one. Step two of doing something about it would still be a very expensive ordeal.

Originally posted by: patriots_1228 well, like i said, its more appealing to a soldier to be fighting in a big honorable world war or defending america from russia then it is to be in some silly 3rd world country like vietnam or iraq....quote>

To children ardent for some desperate glory,

The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est

Pro patria mori.

[Patricius Maximus 236]

Russia, however, very much lost the Cold War, so the old scenario doesn't apply and this is nationalist rattling with rusty sabers.quote>

Yes, with the US one getting rustier. They did lose the Cold War, but sometimes I wonder if it even ended. The 90's was definently a hiatus where Russian power was concerned.

[Odainsaker 2,136]

Originally posted by: patriots_1228 well, like i said, its more appealing to a soldier to be fighting in a big honorable world war or defending america from russia then it is to be in some silly 3rd world country like vietnam or iraq....quote>

Makes me think of a fun scene from the movie "The Wind and the Lion," which dramatized a political kidnapping in Morocco that threatened the international order during Theodore Roosevelt's presidency.  Here we see U.S. Consul-General in Tangier Samuel Gummere confer with U.S. squadron officers over how to deal with the corrupt and uncooperative ruling Shah, courtesy imdb.com:

Capt. Jerome, USMC: (enthusiastic glee)  Military Intervention!...It seems quite obvious, I would think, sir - we must seize the government and make our own negotiations.

Gummere: (incredulous)  Seize the government?

Capt. Jerome, USMC: At BAYONET point!

Gummere: (snidely; to Dreighton)  Well, I certainly would like to see that old son-of-a-***** at bayonet point, huh? (chuckles) ----But it's ridiculous; it's outrageous, it's lunatic!

Adm. Chadwick: Yes, isn't it though? I think Teddy should love it!

Gummere: But, what about the French, the Germans - the British? Why we're in the shadow of Gibraltar!

Adm. Chadwick: (slams his hand on table and stands up)  DAMN THE LEGATIONS!

Gummere: (uneasily)  You realize, of course, that if we fail in even the slightest way, we'll all be killed?

Adm. Chadwick: Yes, and the whole world will probably go to war.

Capt. Jerome, USMC: Gentlemen, if we fail and are killed, I certainly hope the world DOES go to war!

(raises glass as a toast)

Adm. Chadwick: The world at war!

Gummere: A world war? Now THAT would be something to go out on...

Hehehe, historical fiction though it is, I really do like that old '70s movie.  Wait a minute...the movie plot involves the brash roughrider American president and his boastful and brazen mouth getting the Great Powers of Europe and America dragged into the confused uprisings of a divided Muslim desert kingdom and then humbled by a nomadic insurgent folk hero.  What historical fiction?!?!?

[hym 358]

Originally posted by: patriots_1228 well, like i said, its more appealing to a soldier to be fighting in a big honorable world war or defending america from russia then it is to be in some silly 3rd world country like vietnam or iraq....quote>

Whether a "big honorable world war" with Russia is a more appealing concept for prospective recruits is highly debatable.  And remember, "silly Vietnam" was big enough to some people that after the war was over and the veterans were returning, some earlier pacifists and draft dodgers tried to earn honor for themselves by claiming to be Vietnam veterans.  I haven't heard of that happening in Iraq or Afghanistan, but it did happen with "silly 3rd world Vietnam."

Remember--pacifists will be active and vocal from Day One of any major US-Russia conflict, and, historically speaking, the "peace, love, and understanding" crowd can be a very outspoken, and sometimes violent, group.  Additionally, that 40-50 million man army drafted army (or even if they were all willing recruits), would take a few weeks to process all their paperwork, then get them ready for boot camp, and then spend at least 11 weeks training them so they would hopefully have decent survival odds on a battlefield, let alone be a decent offensive weapon.

And finally, none of this even touches on the political hot potato concerning women not being draft eligible and how it's argued that, because they aren't eligible to be drafted like men, the law is giving women preferential treatment and making them the superior individuals.

[Mebert 5]

Russia's only border with Poland lies along East Prussia. It is true that East Prussia contains the highest amount of military equipment per square mile in the world, but the troops there could not capitulate Russia. That, and the fact that there is still full American divisions in Germany would prevent Russia from making a move. American troops are along the border from Ansbach to Berlin, and they could be transferred to Poland quickly.

Another point should be examined: America's army is not built for fighting insurgents. The vast bulk of our army, top to bottom, has been constructed, more or less, for one purpose: to defeat the Russian army. You can't base the performance of America against countries like Vietnam or Iraq as how we will do against Russia, should a war happen, because that's not what our army was built for. Russia, on the other hand, has an army that, while recovering, is still in dire straights. Russia is not stupid. The only superiority they have to us lies in their number of nuclear weapons. We should all understand by now that a nuclear weapon is not something you can bargain with, and if Russia has forgotten that fact, they soon will be reminded of it.

Frankly, I'm not gonna hold my breath.

[Yoman3 5]

I really don't see why Russia is so antsy, the US is deploying 10 Interceptor Rockets in Poland, thats enough to destroy at most, 10 ICBMs, and destroying 10 ICBMs really isn't a help if you have 1000 launched at you. Now if it were 500 interceptor rockets, I could see where there would be a problem.

[JanYpe 17]

Russia is considering arming its Baltic fleet with nuclear warheads for the first time since the cold war, senior military sources warned last night.quote>

Russian roulette for the 21st century: arming your ramshackle, undermaintained, underfunded fleet with nuclear weapons.

[Za 164]

From the Article:

"The warnings came 24 hours after Russia told Poland that it could face a nuclear strike for agreeing to let the United States station components of the missile defence shield on its soil."

"The Russians have already indicated that they may point nuclear missiles at western Europe from bases in Kaliningrad and Belarus. They are also said to be thinking of reviving a military presence in Cuba."

^^ This one seems to be the big one, no offense to Poland, of course. Bay of Pigs, anyone?

[saltandsauce 0]

well i suppose these days it's better to be an enemy of the USA than an ally

[GoaSkin 2]

In Germany, a possible invasion of Russia in Poland is neither reported in TV nor in newspapers and nobody discusses about that. Nobody has an idea...

[DoctorJ 0]

Wow our involvment causes problems again, thats a big suprise. I dont really think that it would be impossible for the Russians to do it. I would think their strongest opposition would probably be from the EU. The US is already war fatigued from the War in the Middle East, It would be a dangerous and bad political move for the US to get too involved. Plus you DO NOT want to spread your troops like jam on bread, it is extreamly dangerous. As an American I hope to God we stay out of this one.

[Barbarossa 51]

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  Edited September 7, 2012 by Barbarossa  

[roboo1 1]

Hey one thing is intersting for me: Simtropolis is the first source of information for me with this case, I didn't hear that Russia is threatening Poland from TV or radio. And to your information I AM POLISH!!!

And if you search in history a little you can find that during WWII Russia took control over Poland as they had a bigger army and west Europe was weakened after the war. But now we are in NATO and UE (consisting of countries no involved in conflicts, maybe except Irak) so in case Russia attacks Poland I think that they wouldn't have much chances to take control over Poland again!!!

[Muck308 55]

Dear saltandsauce... your comments have no validity in this forum. please keep them to yourself.

[SimRabbit 48]

saltandsauce: when Russia invades Europe (if it happens) don't expect the US to help you out.

Without the US, Europe would be under Nazi rule right now. Without the US technology, the USSR wouldn't be very strong.

IMHO, the US should isolate itself from the rest of the world and give a crap what happens to other countries. Remember before WW1, the US was isolated and became a World Power much quicker than any country except the USSR. The economy was growing rapidly.

[Callbat 8]

Originally posted by: SimRabbit saltandsauce: when Russia invades Europe (if it happens) don't expect the US to help you out.

Without the US, Europe would be under Nazi rule right now. Without the US technology, the USSR wouldn't be very strong.

IMHO, the US should isolate itself from the rest of the world and give a crap what happens to other countries. Remember before WW1, the US was isolated and became a World Power much quicker than any country except the USSR. The economy was growing rapidly.quote>

You are wrong.

The United States became a major world power after the Second World War when it's economic force was driving at its fullest. The economy was NOT growing rapidly before, or after the first world war. If Russia Invades Poland it is the obligation of the United States to intervene as they are both members of NATO. The USSR developed their own military technologies independently from the United States, unless you are suggesting that the USSR currently exists, in which case I suggest you look at a world map.

Your thinking precess is worrying..........

[JanYpe 17]

Originally posted by: SimRabbit saltandsauce: when Russia invades Europe (if it happens) don't expect the US to help you out. quote>

Yeah, there's this thing called the North Atlantic Treaty, look it up sometime.

IMHO, the US should isolate itself from the rest of the world and give a crap what happens to other countries. Remember before WW1, the US was isolated and became a World Power much quicker than any country except the USSR. The economy was growing rapidly.quote>

Want to explain again how the position of the US economy of today is in any way comparable to the US economy at the time of the Second Industrial Revolution? Isolation is a great plan, though. I'm sure you'll all have fun being destitute.