Russia may invade Poland

[Micah 16]

This was on the headlines of MSNBC... I just couldn't believe Russia would say something like that while it's at war with Georgia:

Russia: Poland risks attack due to U.S. missiles

Infuriated Moscow issues threat in reaction to deal on interceptor base

Chief U.S. negotiator John Rood, left, and Polish negotiator Andrzej Kremer seal the missile defense deal in Warsaw, Poland, on Thursday.

WARSAW, Poland - An agreement that will allow the United States to install a missile defense battery in Poland exposes the ex-communist nation to an attack, a Russian general said Friday.

Poland and the United States struck a deal on Thursday to deepen military ties and place a missile interceptor base in Poland.

Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the Russian general staff told reporters Friday that the agreement exacerbates U.S.-Russian relations that are already tense because of fighting between Georgian and Russian forces. He said the deal “cannot go unpunished.”

And in the strongest threat Russia has issued in reaction to plans to put elements of a missile defense system in former Soviet satellite nations, the Interfax news agency quoted Nogovitsyn as saying Poland was risking attack.

“Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike — 100 percent,” Interfax quoted Nogovitsyn as saying.

Moscow had previously threatened to redirect missiles toward Poland if the country agreed to host elements of the missile shield.

Washington says the planned system, which is not yet operational, is needed to protect the U.S. and Europe from possible attacks by missile-armed “rogue states” like Iran. The Kremlin, however, feels it is aimed at weakening Russia’s missile force.

'Mutual commitment'
On Thursday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk — speaking in an interview televised on news channel TVN24 — said the United States had agreed to help augment Poland's defenses with Patriot missiles in exchange for placing 10 missile defense interceptors in the Eastern European country.

Tusk said the deal includes a "mutual commitment" between the two nations to come to each other's assistance "in case of trouble."

The clause appeared to be a reference to potential challenges from Russia.

The recent Russian military incursion into Georgia, along with its bombing of Georgian military outposts and airfields, has rattled former Soviet satellites in Eastern Europe.

Poland said the conflict in Georgia underlined Poland's need for U.S. military assistance if it were to cooperate on the U.S. missile defense shield.

Czech agreement
The United States has also reached an agreement with the Czech government to place a radar component of the shield in that country. That deal still needs approval from Czech parliament.

The Polish premier said Thursday's agreement for the countries to come to one another's defense was "a step toward real security for Poland," as it would take too long for NATO to respond if Poland were threatened.

It would take "days, weeks to start that machinery," Tusk said.

"It is not a good situation when rescue comes to dead people. We must ensure our security from the very first hours of a possible ... conflict," he said.

Tusk said the United States met the Polish demands for a permanent presence of Patriot missiles, which "will be able to effectively protect our territory."

The deal was reached after more than 18 months of back-and-forth, often terse, negotiations between the two countries.quote>

[belfastuniguy 18]

I SERIOUSLY doubt they would invade Poland.

Poland is a member of NATO and an EU State. An invasion would be completely the wrong thing for Russia to do, as it would result in war with Russia. A war that Russia would lose, yes their military is large and has recently had more investment, but war with NATO and the EU is one they would not win.

[saltandsauce 0]

riiight, russia will tremble because the west is on poland's side

[krbe 193]

Interesting that Russia reserves the right to shower us with missiles, but want to deny us any chance to defend ourselves.

[Aontan 0]

Originally posted by: krbe Interesting that Russia reserves the right to shower us with missiles, but want to deny us any chance to defend ourselves.quote>

 

Of course! That's the way these things work...

I doubt Russia will "invade" Poland, though they'll probably attempt to become more imposing... maybe a repeat of or something similar to the cyberattacks that Estonia experienced last year over that statue in Tallinn.

[panthersimcity4 162]

I hope not, I have tons of family in Lublin, which is pretty close to the border with Ukraine (or was it Belarus? I forgot)

Also, Poland being a nation in the EU and NATO, that would cause a HUGE diplomatic dillema which could result in a pretty big mess. Seriously though, Russia needs to stop being so paranoid.

[SimRabbit 48]

Why is the US messing with those countries lately?

He is just getting more problems.

We have an economic crisis right now and our poor president is looking for more problems.

[Za 164]

Jeez, It's like Cold War II in the making.

[Jasoncw 11,839]

SimRabbit, we're not really messing with anyone, Poland has agreed to put our missiles there. We have bases all around the planet. Other countries have bases around the world too. And this type of thing would be done regardless of Bush and our other problems.

I think the thing is whether or not Russia is right. Now, I don't think the US has any plans on invading Russia, and I think Russia is being paranoid. On the other hand, Poland doesn't seem like the place to put missiles if they're supposed to be defending against the middle east. It does look like the missiles would be better against unstable eastern european countries, or against Russia. But I don't know how missile defense systems work.

But one thing is for sure, you don't threaten to attack the US/Poland/EU/NATO/etc.

[screamingman12 30]

In Russia, missiles launch you!

[patriots_1228 51]

in an American Russian conflict, the americans are the 300 spartans, only their are 40-50 million "Spartans". Now toss in, o, lets go on the short end and say 100 million soldiers from NATO, EU, and the rest of the world. Moscow would be hell in a matter of days.

Don't [Calm down please.] with the U-S-A mother russia.

[Lolek11 0]

Originally posted by: Jasoncw SimRabbit, we're not really messing with anyone, Poland has agreed to put our missiles there. .quote>

Just goes to show you.... the present ruling party is not the most intelligent !

[hym 358]

Originally posted by: Jasoncw SimRabbit, we're not really messing with anyone, Poland has agreed to put our missiles there. We have bases all around the planet. Other countries have bases around the world too. And this type of thing would be done regardless of Bush and our other problems.

I think the thing is whether or not Russia is right. Now, I don't think the US has any plans on invading Russia, and I think Russia is being paranoid. On the other hand, Poland doesn't seem like the place to put missiles if they're supposed to be defending against the middle east. It does look like the missiles would be better against unstable eastern european countries, or against Russia. But I don't know how missile defense systems work.

But one thing is for sure, you don't threaten to attack the US/Poland/EU/NATO/etc.quote>

This may be wrong, but as I remember, placing the missiles in Poland is supposed to offer the most "bang for the buck" in terms of their efficacy.  I think it was said that, due to the nature of the earth and the limitations of the missile defense system, Poland was considered the place where a missile defense system offered the most coverage.  Granted, I don't know all the details of how the system works, but that's what I seem to remember hearing.

[Teamjusten2004 0]

They just don't seem to like the idea of there former "Allies" joining the U.S. its like a brother hanging with someone you dislike. Don't let the "Democratic Policy's" of Russia fool you, they still have a long way to go before they leave the communist manifesto. Just a thought,

Justen

[belfastuniguy 18]

To be honest what Poland and the United States agrees regarding missile technology is not the business of Russia. Russia is clearly paranoid as it knows its a weaker force and hates the idea of being surrounded by 'bad Americans and their bombs'.

The missile shield does need to have radar and intercept missiles outside the United States, it means missiles launched from say Iran can be more quickly tracked and destroyed. Hence missiles in Poland and Radar in the United Kingdom and Czech Republic (their parliament has just to approve the basing of radar facilities)

Russia should just shut up and quit trying to intimidate its neighbouring nations. Lets also remember that Poland is boarded by Germany and I can assure you, Germany would not tolerate Russia invading Poland, nor would the nations of the EU. Poland is not Georgia....such talk will only make the state of relations with Russia far worse.

[Follarch 326]

This ALL just sounds like the makings of World War III, Russia invades Georgia, a U.S. ally, and then threatens to invade Poland, another U.S. ally, part of the EU and NATO. Does anyone else see this as the precursor to an all out conflict between the Russian Federation and the United States/European Union?

God help us.

[Teamjusten2004 0]

They wouldn't invade. Poland has lots of allies including the United States, EU and NATO. Russia isn't what they once were. They want to manipulate there border countries like belfastuniguy said.

[Mayorm 14]

I feel that the US should not be getting involved with the Russian conflict, when we are already fighting a war with Iraq. if we get involved then we will be in the middle of a possible World War III

[Teamjusten2004 0]

Poland asked for help we will give it, be it bombing runs or troop aid. We (United States) have already given military weapons to Georgia so i can promise we will give aid to Poland.

[Duke87 1,070]

Originally posted by: patriots_1228 in an American Russian conflict, the americans are the 300 spartans, only their are 40-50 million "Spartans". Now toss in, o, lets go on the short end and say 100 million soldiers from NATO, EU, and the rest of the world. Moscow would be hell in a matter of days.

Don't [Calm down please.] with the U-S-A mother russia.quote>

Yeah, except that the Spartans lost that war.

Your analogies need work.

[Hahayoudied 3]

To Duke:

The 300 Spartans fought against their enemy when the Spartans was defending their retreating allies' armies from a enemy army. The Spartans held out for a while, dispite being attacked by their enemy army that was much larger. Now if you throw in more troops that were like the Spartans in the battle, the tide of the battle would have change.

Back to the topic;

If Russia attacks Poland; U.S., EU, and NATO would have ganged up against Russia, Russia would have been screwed from being out number and out gunned. So, that is why Russia isn't going to act like a aggressive idiot like it used to do in the past...

[patriots_1228 51]

The Spartans lost the battle, but won the war.

[Simfan34 11]

They might also erm... invade Ukraine over the Crimea. Sounds stupid, I know- just shows how ridiculous Russia is.

Is Ukraine Next? Georgian War Exacerbates Russia-Ukraine Relations

Richard Weitz | Bio | 15 Aug 2008

World Politics Review Exclusive

The War in Georgia has seriously exacerbated relations between Russia and Ukraine's pro-Western government. On Aug. 12, Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko joined the leaders of four other former Soviet states in Tbilisi to show solidarity with Georgia and its embattled president, Mikheil Saakashvili. Yushchenko told the crowd that had assembled in Tbilisi's central square: "You will never be left alone! . . . We have come to reaffirm your sovereignty, your independence, your territorial integrity. These are our values. Independent Georgia is and independent Georgia will always be!" The following day, President Yushchenko boldly imposed severe restrictions on the movement of Russian military units in Ukraine. Specifically, he directed that Russian warships, warplanes, or other military units give 72 hours' notice before moving within Ukrainian territory. The order also applies to ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet seeking to reenter their home base at Sevastopol. The Russian Foreign Ministry attacked the measures as a "serious, new anti-Russian step." Ukrainian officials claimed that the restrictions were not a direct result of the Russian military intervention in Georgia. Instead, they maintain that they had long sought to regulate more effectively Russian operations at the Sevastopol base, but that Moscow had repeatedly delayed commencing talks on the issue by arguing that it had no plan to employ the Black Sea Fleet in foreign military operations. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry had stated at the onset of the war that they would not necessarily allow Russian warships to return to Sevastopol if they supported military operations against Georgia. "We have information confirmed by our specialists that several vessels of the Black Sea Fleet left Sevastopol and either made their way or were making their way toward the territory of Georgia," Ukraine Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko explained while in Georgia on Aug. 10. "Obviously, if this is confirmed we will have to reconsider the conditions under which these vessels would be able to be stationed on the territory of Ukraine." On Aug. 13, moreover, the Ukrainian Security Council issued a statement declaring that the presence of foreign warships in its waters "poses a potential threat to Ukraine's national security, particularly if parts of Russia's Black Sea Fleet are used against third countries." The Ukrainian government has long insisted it will not renew Russia's lease regarding Sevastopol when it expires on May 28, 2017. For their part, Russian officials denounced the Ukrainian government for siding with Saakashvili, who Moscow holds responsible for starting the war and committing war crimes against Russian citizens in South Ossetia. After the Georgian War began, Sergei Shoigu, Russia's minister for emergency situations, expressed indignation that, "One week before these events, we send a column of humanitarian aid to Ukraine to help flood victims and the next we find they're offering military aid, arms for the destruction of civilians." One month prior to the invasion, Ukrainian troops participated in a large, multinational military exercise in Georgia, "Immediate Response 2008" which also involved Azeri, Armenian and American soldiers. After the war ended in an overwhelming Russian military victory, former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, who as the last Soviet foreign minister helped dismantle the Soviet Union -- a development that Putin called the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century -- warned that "Ukraine most likely'" would be the next country to experience increased Russian military pressure to abandon foreign and defense policies opposed by Moscow. There are certainly many disturbing parallels in the situations Ukraine and Georgia find themselves with respect to Moscow. Pro-Western governments came to power following popular revolutions in both countries -- in Georgia in 2003 and Ukraine in 2004. Along with Georgia, the Ukrainian government is seeking to join NATO. At this April's NATO summit in Bucharest, the alliance's communiqué said that both countries "will become NATO members" eventually. The Georgian and Ukrainian governments also have collaborated to pursue energy transit routes linking the Caspian Sea to Europe that bypass Russia. Unfortunately, Ukraine shares some of Georgia's vulnerabilities as well. The Ukrainian region of Crimea has a majority Russian-speaking population. Some of its members would like to join Russia. The peninsula also hosts an important naval base that Russia does not want to relinquish. The Kremlin might be able to instigate a pro-Russian uprising in the Crimea in which the insurgents, following the South Ossetian precedent, would appeal for Russian military intervention to protect them from Kiev. Various Russian leaders have suggested that, if Ukraine actually joins NATO or attempts to expel the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol, then Russia might annex the Crimea. After the Bucharest summit, Putin told a news conference that, "The appearance on our borders of a powerful military bloc . . . will be considered by Russia as a direct threat to our country's security." Army Gen. Yury Baluyevsky, chief of the Russian General Staff, said that the entry of Ukraine or Georgia into NATO would lead Moscow to "undoubtedly take measures to ensure its security near the state border. These will be both military and other measures." Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov likewise said Moscow "will do everything possible to prevent the accession of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO." These statements appear aimed at stoking tensions with Ukraine to exacerbate the country's internal differences and reinforce West European reluctance to allow Ukrainian entry into NATO. Nevertheless, there are certain major differences between Georgia and Ukraine. First, the Ukrainian armed forces are much stronger than those of Georgia. Whereas Georgia's prewar military had approximately 37,000 soldiers under arms, the Ukrainian military numbers over 200,000. The Russian armed forces is still five times larger, but would find a war with Ukraine, with a population -- which, though divided about NATO membership, would presumably rally to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity -- some 10 times larger than that of Georgia, a much greater challenge. In addition, the United States and some other NATO countries have belatedly sought to reinforce their political-military position in the former Soviet bloc. The Bush administration appears to have accepted Saakashvili's warning that the weak U.S. response to the Russian intervention was creating a situation in which "America is losing the whole region" to Russia. After days of supporting the Georgian position with nothing but rhetoric, President Bush announced on Aug. 13 that the U.S. military would conduct a relief operation in Georgia. Whatever humanitarian assistance it might provide the Georgian people would pale in significance to the deployment's symbolic importance as reaffirming Washington's continuing role and interests in Russia's neighborhood. The announcement that NATO would hold a special meeting on the conflict, as well as the long-awaited consummation of a Polish-American deal on basing U.S. missile interceptors in Poland, also signaled that Washington and some of its allies were now determined to shore up their presence in the region to dissuade further Russian predations. Richard Weitz is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a World Politics Review contributing editor.

quote>

Could Ukraine Become Russia's Next Target?
By Peter Fedynsky Moscow 15 August 2008

Fedynsky report - Download (MP3)

Fedynsky report - Listen (MP3)

The former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine are allies engaged in similar attempts to establish democratic rule, to join NATO and realign themselves with the West, much to the displeasure of Russia.  During the conflict in Georgia, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko prohibited ships from the Russian Black Sea Fleet that are engaged off the Georgian coast from returning to port on Ukraine's Crimean peninsula without Kyiv's official permission. VOA correspondent Peter Fedynsky examines how the Kremlin may react to Ukraine's pro-Georgian and pro-Western position.

 

Hrushevsky School in Tbilisi, Georgia

In 2007, Public School Number 41 in Tbilisi was named after Mykhailo Hrushevsky, president of the short-lived Ukrainian People's Republic in 1917 and 1918.  

Ukraine's current President, Viktor Yushchenko flew to Tbilisi to join his Georgian friend and fellow head of state, Mikheil Saakashvili, in the school's re-dedication ceremony.  Both men rode to power following mass pro-democracy protests that came to be known as colored revolutions. Georgia's was the Rose Revolution and Ukraine's was the Orange. Accordingly, the Hrushevsky School was painted orange.

Moscow has not disguised its displeasure with the colored revolutions and refuses to deal with Mr. Saakashvili. On Tuesday, President Yushchenko again flew to Tbilisi, accompanied this time by the presidents of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.  

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko (file photo)

Mr. Yushchenko says the task of the presidential mission is to show that Georgia is not alone, that in this age the power of reason should not be replaced by the iron fist. 

The Ukrainian leader says the five presidents came to Georgia to prohibit the of killing people and the execution of the country.

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksiy Melnyk, of the Razumkov Center think tank in Kyiv, told VOA the Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic leaders do not necessarily agree with all of the actions undertaken in the conflict by Georgian leadership, but notes they risked their own physical security to send a signal to Moscow.

Oleksiy Melnyk

Melnyk says Moscow should see the presidential show of solidarity in Tbilisi as a serious signal that Russian foreign policy of establishing control over former Soviet republics and its neighborhood achieves a totally opposite effect. The analyst says Russia is surrounding itself with nations that are, at a minimum, not friendly and perhaps even hostile toward Moscow.

Oleksiy Melnyk says Russian military actions in Georgia could lead the majority of Ukrainians who now oppose to their country's NATO membership to reassess their opinions about the respective security threats posed by the Western alliance and Russia.

Soso Tsiskarishvili

The chairman of the European Integration Forum in Tbilisi, Soso Tsiskarishvili, agrees with Melnyk's assessment, but notes Ukraine is better prepared to meets NATO's democratic standards for membership than Georgia.

Tsiskarishvili says Ukraine's two recent parliamentary elections and Georgia's presidential and parliamentary contests differ from one another like heaven and earth in terms of democratic and transparent procedures.

But Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer cautions that Ukraine could be Russia's next target as part of what he says is a grand Kremlin plan for the partial restoration of Russian greatness.

"Russia right now wants at least half of Ukraine to be annexed," said Felgenhauer. "Vladimir Putin talked about that rather openly at the NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania in April. Ukraine will disintegrate into two halves, and we want the eastern half, including of course, first and foremost, Crimea."

Felgenhauer says Ukraine's overwhelming vote for independence in 1991, which included a majority of Crimeans, means nothing to Kremlin rulers, who the analyst says do not respect the will of even their own people. 

Nonetheless, the analyst says Russia is tied down in Georgia and will not make any immediate military moves against Ukraine. He notes, however, that Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which leases naval facilities in Sevastopol in Crimea, will likely steam back to port in defiance of a Ukrainian presidential order that it must first ask for Ukrainian permission.

"If Russia openly challenges Ukrainian sovereignty, I think that Ukraine will then turn to the West and say, 'you know guys, they're challenging our sovereignty with their fleet.' And this will happen without any kind of use of arms, or anything made in anger. Ukraine right now, apparently wants to make the threat to its sovereignty obvious to outside powers," said Felgenhauer.

Felgenhauer says Moscow's vision of the world is that of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin; one in which Russia and Washington share spheres of influence. The analyst notes that Russia withdrew its bases from Cuba and Vietnam, expecting the United States to stay away from what Moscow thought was to be its sphere of influence. He says Moscow felt betrayed when Washington began supporting colored revolutions among Russia's neighbors.  

But Soso Tsiskarishvili points to this week's visit to Tbilisi by presidents of five countries that border Russia as a sign that they do not trust the Kremlin.quote>

[Danlikebooks 6]

In my opinion, the best way to deal with any conflict is to lock the opposing people in a room and not let them out until they come up with an agreement.  Either they do, or they all starve.  Starvation is an amazing motivator.  Just throw Putin in a room with some Polish negotiators and (assuming that Putin doesn't kill them) things will work themselves out.  Or Russia will need a new Prime Minister.

[panthersimcity4 162]

Wow, Russia is being very... militaristic?

[Hahayoudied 3]

I would laugh if Russia accidently bullies a nation that is an ally of China, then Russia would have to be more careful about it's aggressiveness when China gets angry...

[patriots_1228 51]

except in this day and age, you don't need to physically be somewhere to control it. The US air force, assuming we still have places in germany and japan, could deliver a crippling blow to russia faster then they could say 'vodka'.

Invading russia used to be a *****, but with todays technology and the power of the entire free world, it would be quiet easy....unless one of the failtrains [bush or putin] breaks out the nukes. in that case, move to canada.

[____----____ 37]

lol just more war mongering, Russia will not invade Poland, nothing but military industrialists on both side stirring up some business, stupid humans

and i'm surprisd how much Russian fear still exists in this country.

[Red1530 1]

Originally posted by: patriots_1228 except in this day and age, you don't need to physically be somewhere to control it. The US air force, assuming we still have places in germany and japan, could deliver a crippling blow to russia faster then they could say 'vodka'.

We still have bases in Germany and Japan.  I don't think the Russians would be stupid to attack Poland mainly because it is a full member of NATO.  However an attack on Ukraine is more likely.  However the Russians would need a better excuse than attacking "peacekeepers" because Ukraine, unlike Georgia, has no large part of its territory controlled by Russians troops.

[The_Hutt 11]

The biggest concern with Russian belligerence is the increased risk of what is known as an "accidental" nuclear exchange, whereupon literally everything goes wrong at the same time. The chances are slim (probably less than one tenth of 1%) but it is a very real, and will only increase in probability as the situation deteriorates. Human stupidity can never be entirely ruled out.