Korean War Redux

[LexusInfernus 908]

But threatening the very countries you want to negotiate with is not very smart.

It depends. Why risk seeing your capital go up in a radioactive mushroom cloud if you could also just talk to them and give them a bit of food. Especially when what they want is essentially nothing compared to what you have? 

 

But to be fair, this tactic does indeed not work all that well. 

[Cobraroll 138]

North Korea still remains to prove that they could put their nukes to use in an offensive scenario. One thing is making a nuclear explosion in a controlled environment. Another is bringing that nuclear device to a target, intact, and having it explode when it's supposed to. I suppose they could tunnel their way under Seoul and detonate a bomb there, but pressing China is a different matter entirely. You'd need missiles or aircraft to get to Beijing, and the facilities housing such are well-mapped and well-monitored by all of NK's neighbours. The Second Artillery Corps would make short work of any launch sites should North Korea be foolish enough to try to threaten China with nuclear weapons. As LexusInfernus said, "Why risk seeing your capital go up in a radioactive mushroom cloud if you could also just talk to them and give them a bit of food?". Well, there's another option: Cut the crap and make sure they don't threaten you again. China has the means, but doesn't wish to use them. Yet.

[LexusInfernus 908]

North Korea still remains to prove that they could put their nukes to use in an offensive scenario. One thing is making a nuclear explosion in a controlled environment. Another is bringing that nuclear device to a target, intact, and having it explode when it's supposed to. I suppose they could tunnel their way under Seoul and detonate a bomb there, but pressing China is a different matter entirely. You'd need missiles or aircraft to get to Beijing, and the facilities housing such are well-mapped and well-monitored by all of NK's neighbours. The Second Artillery Corps would make short work of any launch sites should North Korea be foolish enough to try to threaten China with nuclear weapons. As LexusInfernus said, "Why risk seeing your capital go up in a radioactive mushroom cloud if you could also just talk to them and give them a bit of food?". Well, there's another option: Cut the crap and make sure they don't threaten you again. China has the means, but doesn't wish to use them. Yet.

Its a bit of a risk to take, isn't it? To preemptively attack someone who may have a missile that is capable of delivering nuclear devastation to your capital, or in the US's case, an allies capital? I mean sure, you could bet on the missile to fail, or bet on the nuke to not go off. But is that really a risk worth taking? Because what if the thing does work? Then you look like the guy who unleashed a nuclear war and you will be held responsible for everyone who died because of it. 

 

No, China and the US have nothing to gain from preemptively attacking North Korea as long as they are sure that what they are doing right now is just macho talk. 

 

And on a side note, I think the Kims like having their own country worshiping them as gods way to much to ever risk doing something that will result in their own destruction. 

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

I just hope the Kims are not much into Egyptian history.  When the build a pyramid to house the body of Dear Leader, we'll know they've gone off the deep end. 

 

I wonder if they view the Mikado as a devil or a god?  The Japanese held them quite a while.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Another US think tank spins the news.

 

They sure get a lot from satellite photos, eh?

[Bdub01 201]

Is it time for an infamous drone strike?

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

You mean Caesar is likely to issue a new proscription list?

[hym 358]

Another US think tank spins the news.

 

They sure get a lot from satellite photos, eh?

 

On some level, it isn't surprising that satellite images can reveal a lot of information about a facility.  You can get really detailed photos, so forensic analysis is possible if you get the right pictures.  This can lead to detailed analysis of a facility if you know enough about the facility.  In many facilities, this is more or less impossible, but in some facilities, there is really only 1 or 2 accepted (or feasible) ways to construct things, so if you know how the facility can be built and can see pictures of the construction, you can make estimates about startup dates, operational capabilities, etc.  It's the same reason that military budgets are sometimes kept secret; knowing how much they are spending on something can give the right people a wealth of knowledge about what you're doing and how far along you are in the process.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Cooling off.

 

Back to business as usual?  The North wants to reopen Kaesong.  Fearless Leader has made his point.

[Cobraroll 138]

^Nope, he's trying to rebuild the bridges he burned a few months ago, in order to have bridges to burn the next time he wants attention.

 

After all, you can only break peace talks, cut the phone lines or close Kaesong once. If you want to perform the trick again, you have to re-join the peace talks, set up a new phone line and open Kaesong first.

 

North Korea's threats are only paid attention to when accompanied by certain actions. They have to break a status quo to get their point across. To do that, they need a status quo to break. They're simply "reloading the gun", so they can repeat the ordeal at a later point. For instance, when the grain silos are empty and it's a while until the next harvest. If the people are disgruntled because they don't get food, they might revolt. A way to avoid this is beating the war drums for a while when you're low on food, so the people will be more worried about a possible foreign invasion than about the lack of things to eat. Then harvest comes around, people get their usual rations back, and you don't need to pretend that a war is on your doorstep any more. They're not putting up this show for South Korea or the US. They're just trying to keep their own population in check.

[Bdub01 201]

That's a good point, they know that realistically it would be country suicide to invade SK however you keep the people more worried about war than the lack of food in their bellies, they won't be complaining too much.  So now it's time to pretend that you want to talk about peace again and opening lines of communication, but it's just to make a big show when they want to threaten the world again, or at least SK and the US.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

One of these times, momma is going to spank when they throw one of these tantrums.  The Chinese are probably getting good and fed up.

[Mr Saturn64 742]

I saw a headline somewhere that said something along to lines of

"China to NK 'we won't tolerate 'horseplay''"

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

North South Talks at Panmunjom.

 

The have-nots are talking to their cousins again.  Perhaps a good sign, but wait ...  there's more...

[Mr Saturn64 742]

More threats? If they want to... Hold me, I'm Scared!

[RipRap 4,400]

I guess the pressure is on North Korea after China and the US agreed to not accept the North's denuclearization.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

The bull is at it again.

 

Dropping the same old dung into the world pasture.  Making the new young bull into a steer might help, but I doubt it.

[Bdub01 201]

I think if NK was person they would diagnosed as being bi-polar with anti- social tendencies...

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

More grist for the mill.

 

I would like to know what makes a Korean ex-pat living in China an "official".  This one is a matter of "he said, she said".  If this is a news story, BBC is in a sorry state.

 

If any book were given out by a far left leader, it surely would not be the ravings of a far right madman.  Unless, that is, politics operates on a conformal plane and the left and right meet at the point at infinity.

[Bdub01 201]

Just when you think NK has gone off the radar. Now all NK and Cuba need is one other ally so they can be the new "axis of evil"

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23339847

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

I got a 404 on your link.

[Bdub01 201]

^ Ok try this one.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/16/world/panama-north-korean-ship

[airman15 4,113]

Just when you think NK has gone off the radar. Now all NK and Cuba need is one other ally so they can be the new "axis of evil"

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23339847

 

I would imagine a true 'axis of evil' as having at least one world power on their side. Its unlikely a world power like say, China or Russia would side with them.

 

In the case with Russia, North Korea stopped receiving aid from them when the USSR collapsed and now the Russians don't want to have a nuclear-armed NK at their doorstep. China on the other hand would rather see North Korea continue talks with the west to avert a crisis.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

To be sent to NK for repair?  Where did they get them in the first place?  From NK?  From some element of the now defunct USSR?

[Bdub01 201]

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/north-korea-releases-two-american-captives-n244341

So is this a sign of a change of hearts in NK or are they up to something?

Sorry for blowing the dust off an old thread but why start a new one when there is a perfectly good one here?

[NMUSpidey 3,956]

Oh, that's perfectly fine.  This thread is useful.  Recently here, some Japanese ambassadors sat down with some Norks to discuss the Japanese they kidnapped back in the 60s or 70s.  Needless to say, the press here was suspicious of everything the "I'm So Roneries" did and said, and of course nothing came out of it.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Considering the Japanese record with respect to Chösen, any talks between NK and Japan even after a century would be fraught with distrust.