Korean War Redux

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

No.  I have no association with those guys.  If I did, I would deny it, wouldn't I? 

 

I am more than a little miffed that they have taken a moniker so close to mine.  Besides, I am not anonymous as I have signed several posts with my real name, and I have also posted a link to my website in my profile.

 

Prof. John. C. Winterton, (retired).

[libellibicus 396]

[Bdub01 201]

^Ha that needs to be on the sim memes thread. That's awesome...

So NK says they can't guarantee the safety of diplomats after April 10th huh? Is April 10 April Fools Day in NK, or do they know something the rest of the world doesn't ?

[Gurning_Chimp 398]

^Ha that needs to be on the sim memes thread. That's awesome...

So NK says they can't guarantee the safety of diplomats after April 10th huh? Is April 10 April Fools Day in NK, or do they know something the rest of the world doesn't ?

 

That's when 99 Red Balloons starts playing!

[mrbisonm 1,622]

Neunundneunzig luftballons..........lol.

 

It becomes dangerous when one (or a nation) is starting to think of suicide.........and sees no other way out of their dilemma.

 

mrb

[NMUSpidey 3,956]

Yeah, and they're only like, two doors down from where I live, and with how little the countries around here get along it makes for a rather interesting stew.

[jmdude1 20]

imo, the west seems much more worried about the situation than here in korea. this is my 7th year in korea and i have to say that nothing out of the oridnary is going on here. it's business as usual and nobody is doing anything differently. these tensions arise every year, and since there is a new president and the US and SK have recently carried out their joint military drills, NK is just trying to draw the attention back to themselves. then they will offer to back down in exchange for aid or an ease on sactions. meh.

[MatlockMan 370]

Hey everyone. I'm going to gracefully smash into the thread now.

Since it's the beginning of spring/end of the winter, they're nearly out of food supplies. It's the annual spring famine and to keep the people think their government is legit and not exploiting them, Kim Jong-un has to show that he will keep the Imperialist bad guys out of their beloved country. It's not aggression to the rest of the world, it's a political, internal move to make the North Korean common comrade think they're always under threat and that the Dear Leader is taking care of that.

Exactly. It's just a ploy to build up a war hysteria and prevent NK's poor, starving people from rebelling, although it is also highly likely that Kim Jong Un-intelligent is simply having this tantrum to please his military generals (who hold the real power in NK.)

[mrbisonm 1,622]

One has to be carefull with making up a single mind of this situation. I live in nature with domestic and wild animals, and we all belong to the same category anyways. I don't know if many of you know how a hungry animal acts. They can be visious and very aggressive. It is an instinct, a simple instinct to survive and this is still hidden in our own genes.

 

This is what somehow bothers me most. I know if I was hungry and slowly dying of it, my neighbour surely would become scared of me.

 

I don't think that we are awfully worried about this out here in the West, but we like to talk about it, I suppose.

 

mrb

[KineticFlow 1]

Just few words from an average Korean.

 

Although the threat of invasion is a topic recurring discussion from time to time for us, I have to be honest that it just doesn't feel real and I believe that this goes out to several other fellow Koreans. Of course, as we are in the center stage of the conflict with North Korea, we do express worries and possible devastations at least on the border city. But it is mostly talk and not really a panic-inducing apprehension.

 

As for why we have a capital so close to the border is because it has been the capital before the division as early as the rise of Joseon dynasty (1392). Back then, the location was a prime site for a capital city thanks to a vast plain next to the wide Han-river flowing through it, and the comparatively centralized location in the Korean peninsula. We Koreans can be very stubborn, prideful (not necessarily the good kind), and resistant to change. (For example, many Koreans had been proud of the single ethnicity throughout the whole nation, and still interracial marriage are not "encouraged" even between Asians if they are not actually Korean.) Seoul (previously known as Hanyang) has been our capital for centuries and it stayed that way. The relocation of capital has been brought up and discussed intensely many times primarily due to overcentralization of population and the geographical vulnerability as well as the overall long distance from many regions, but no concrete decision to change has been made.

 

As for unification, I would agree it was a decade ago. Our northern cousins have walked down the way to hell for way too long. It would be nice if everything just worked out great and the people of Korean peninsula united again, but the expected economic and social backlashes are too severe for us. Of course, following decades or even centuries issues will probably settle, but things aren't that great currently for us in the south either. The whole country is getting exploited by the big corporates such as Samsung, LG, and Hyundai. The big businesses are rolling with money while the small and mid-sized business are struggling among each other to barely survive. By bringing the North Koreans in this picture, it is without saying that all sorts of social and economic issues will arise. It is selfish, but we already got our own problems at hand, and unification is just not what we need/want for many of us.

 

Anything could actually happen. I mean, who knows what really goes in their minds. But as long as the North Korean leadership has even the slightest amount of brain cells left, there won't be any war started from their side. At least that's what I hope because I would rather not die in a war with more loss than gain and that will last at most few days but with huge collateral damage. (Conscripted reservist anyone? :/ )

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Issuing a diplomatic warning is kind of the last act before open hostilities.  The NK is now walking on the edge of a razor.

 

^ I'll bet that the attitude in Poland in 1939 was about the same.

 

The world seeks peace?  Then why not create a permanent set of peace enforcers?  There are enough belligerent states around right now that they need some watchdogs to snarl at them.

[north country dude 207]

The latest news: Not Good.

 

South Korea is an economically successful country. The US has almost 30,000 troops stationed there. Simply put, it would be a disaster if all out war were to break out,...again.

 

[ roving reporter Mr Enceedee thrusts a microphone in front of Professor Winterton and asks rapid fire questions,...] 

 

"The latest news from North Korea looks ominous, in your opinion, how will things pan out? What about current anti-American sentiment to the presence of US troops by South Koreans? Would they be better served if the US were to call its troops home at this time? Will the North Koreans use nuclear weapons?"

 

Latest data:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Forces_Korea

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/29/world/asia/us-begins-stealth-bombing-runs-over-south-korea.html?_r=0

http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/korea/fewer-bases-same-number-of-troops-in-south-korea-us-ambassador-says-1.168633

http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/09/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9980762/Evacuate-North-Korea-urges-foreigners-in-latest-thermo-nuclear-war-threat.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/09/us-korea-north-idUSBRE93408020130409

 

I apologize if my comments seem a bit nutty, but, I gotta use the pistacia vera I was born with to deal with ominous world news.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

You shouldn't take my name in vein.

 

Professor John C. Winterton, CCP (retired)

[north country dude 207]

You shouldn't take my name in vein.

 

Professor John C. Winterton, CCP (retired)

I sincerely apologize. I will try to use the other vein.

 

But those questions about the anti-American sentiment are good talking points in this subject. Are they saying "We want you Yankees to go home,...but not just yet." ?

[Cobraroll 138]

None of the actors involved really want a war, though. It's rather inevitable that a war would lead to a quick North Korean defeat, and a subsequent difficult reunification. The current situation at least has the decency to be stable and relatively predictable, it's been this way for years and everybody kind of manage themselves. It sucks for the North Korean population, but most of the involved politicians would really prefer that nothing happened at least until they've left office:

 

North Korea's leaders prefer things the way they are. Their countrymen fear them and obey their orders without (loud) questions, they live in relative luxury, and politics is quite easy. The rest of the world don't like them that much, but that's not affecting them personally. The peasants are too poor and hungry to rebel, and there's no fear of a military coup because the military run the country already. Besides, any North Korean politicians understand that trying to change the system for their own benefit would run the country right in the gutter, so political stability is practically guaranteed.

 

China prefers to have a buffer zone between them and the americanized South Korea. Besides, a unified Korea could become more of a regional power. It's better to play big brother to two small countries than one big. Also, practically all goods consumed in North Korea is Chinese. A lot of money is made on this monopoly.

 

South Korea would have to deal with twenty-four million poor, half-starving people who are indoctrinated to hate them, if it came to a reunification. Not to mention that those people would live in a huge region with terrible infrastructure. Somebody would have to pay to get the country up to acceptable standards, a situation like Germany all over again, just that the North is even further behind South Korea than East Germany was to the West. At least East Germany was stuck in the 70's when reunification came in the 90's, in this case it's more like the 50's meeting the 2010's. Fixing North Korea would set the South many years, if not decades, back economically. Besides, you have all the damage a war would inflict on Seoul.

 

The US has just got out of two very costly wars in a time where the economy is rather rough. The population don't want to send troops to yet another country now. Just look at how everybody viewed the Libya bombings, which hardly lasted for a month. It would be nice with a break from wars now, right? Especially with Iran looming in the background. Even though insurgents wouldn't be that much of a problem in North Korea (all the weapons belong to the military, and can be confiscated in the case of an invasions. There aren't guns strewn around all over the country like in Iraq and Afghanistan, and nobody would want to smuggle them across the border either).

 

Japan don't really have anything to benefit from either the current situation or a potential war/reunification, but I think it's pretty safe to say that they would prefer things to go peacefully. It's never fun with war in the neighbourhood, even if you're not involved in it. Worst case, you'd end up with thousands of refugees swarming your borders (or in this case, beaches). And a war would lead to increased American military activity in the region, at least temporary, something which Beijing would frown upon. And Japan would be stuck right between them.

 

Even Iran would prefer to keep the current situation going. At least North Korea draws American attention away. Besides, there's the entire "enemy of my enemy" thing...

 

 

Russia, on the other hand, would be quite indifferent. Like China, they wouldn't like Americans running in their backyard either. On the other hand, they've kinda gotten used to it elsewhere already. Besides, a reunification of Korea would mean that goods could be shipped to the Korean marked by railroad instead of the current faff with loading it onto ships and sail around North Korean waters. But all in all, the Russia/NK border is only a fraction of Russia's total borders, so it isn't that much of an issue.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

 

You shouldn't take my name in vein.

 

Professor John C. Winterton, CCP (retired)

I sincerely apologize. I will try to use the other vein.

 

But those questions about the anti-American sentiment are good talking points in this subject. Are they saying "We want you Yankees to go home,...but not just yet." ?

 

Only have one vein.  The other was used for tissue in my heart repair surgery.

 

Some definite "Yankee go home" sentiment seems to be floating around, but I think the US has guaranteed the safety of SK.

 

Expect things to die down now that the "dear leader"s anniversary of succession is over.  It would be a shame if NK tried to be the mouse that roared.  The rest of the world is just a big mouse trap set for them.

[north country dude 207]

North Korea delivers new round of war rhetoric Missile movements: Is N.Korea trying to 'mess' with the world?

If the goal is to bring the US and South Korea to the bargaining table, what if it goes too far and backfires?

 

Just wondering.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

When you walk on the razor's edge you will probably get cut.  And if it's Ocham's Razor, then the solution taken will be the simpler of the two.

 

Let's fantasize for a moment and suppose there was a quiet coup in NK where the Kim dynasty just disappeared to be replaced by someone in the general staff who was tired of all the spin and stupid socialist rhetoric and wanted to bring his country into the 21st. century.  Would it be possible for him to affect this gradually, sort of under the table?  If he had the right international contacts, he could probably make this happen and faster than you might expect.  Undoing all that propaganda is what will take much of the time.  Eventually could make Kim Il-Sung look like Black Peter.

[LexusInfernus 908]

Of course it is entirely possible to gradually change NK in a more open, capitalist country. They did it in China once Mao was gone and I see no reason why not in North Korea.

 

And the nice thing about worshiping demi gods like in North Korea is that you can keep doing it if they are dead and some general or something takes over. Going capitalist while worshiping the great chairman and what not is not mutually exclusive. Besides, one might wonder how many people actually care about all the old propaganda once North Korea suddenly gets enough food on the table to feed everyone, and the rising economy begins to raise the standard of living all across the country. 

[Bdub01 201]

Instead of McDonalds have McKims

[Mr Saturn64 742]

First off, I'm incredibly worried about this situation (even though I'm an eastern American.), but I think that...

1. NK may just be trying to seek attention from other countries as it has a record of poverty, horrible government, brainwashing people, and caring about nothing less than nuclear war, they could just be trying something new, or possibly...

2. NK threatenes South Korea all the time but have never done anything. Maybe Kim Jong Un might just want to seem more powerful than anyone else, or his father in mind.

3. If NK would firing a nuclear missile at anyone, be it South Korea, Japan, the US, or anybody, everyone involved here would declare war. I mea, suppose SK, Japan, China and the US declared war on NK. That would be around 6 million troops and nukes and tanks against 1 million.

That's just my take. Doesn't mean much.

[BLANKBLANK 4,414]

Why is the North Korean government so stupid and self-destructive? Why are US American politicians generally incompetent, greedy or corrupt?

--Ocram

 

North Korea and the US are on two opposite ends of the dictatorship/propaganda spectrum. NK is the last vassal of undiluted and blatant nationalism plus totalitarianism, which has forced its citizens to believe in the cult of the 'glorious, dear and immortal leader'. While the US is the pinnacle of corporate fascism and the master of stupefying ones people through television and a sub-par education system. 

 

In North Korea you have no rights, in the US you have rights until you become a thorn in the banksters, politicians or military's backside. Most of the democracy of the US Congress and Senate died a slow death with corporate lobbying, an ever encroaching Federal Reserve, and politicians who care more for their public image and their portfolios then the actual running of the station.

 

As for propaganda, NK does it blatantly so, but as for the US its very subtle. It works on slack investigative journalism, sensationalist news, news items devoted to celebrities or trivia, and the best one of all- distraction. For instance; Dow Jones down five percent? The next day or two there comes out a story about Obama's new stance on gays, or welfare, or whatever and THAT takes precedence and a week later nearly everyone would have forgotten about the financial trouble (especially if the Dow stabilised).

 

Thank God for the 2nd Amendment because that is the only thing stopping the US government from going even further with their anti-terror laws and their covert crusade against human rights. But I still feel there is hope for both countries; if the US could overcome the divisive issues of slavery, equality between races and sexes, then maybe it can overcome the corporate fascism shackling it?

 

Likewise I really hope the two Koreas become one again, but from what I've read in interviews about North Koreans who escaped from that country, they found the outside world and the truth a BIG shock and it could take many years for the North Korean people to adjust should the regime fall.

 

Finally North Korea never needed any nuclear weapons in the first place, it's biggest trump card has always been the ten thousand or so artillary pieces pointed at Seoul (plus China steadfastly backing them). All the major players know this and when I really think about it really depresses me...

 

Here's hoping the North Koreans back down and that the Americans don't do anything stupid...

[NMUSpidey 3,956]

Yeah, to echo the Koreans'words posted up there, they don't seem to be too worried about it. The news reports the NK lunacy everyday, but Japanese people aren't all that worried either. I suspect nothing will continue to happen except the continued emission of highly concentrated hot air from the I'm So Ronery camp.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Maybe someone should just give South Korea a nice big fly swatter to wave at Pyongyang.

[north country dude 207]

Maybe someone should just give South Korea a nice big fly swatter to wave at Pyongyang.

 

...or possibly a gift basket of Black Flag products?

[Kiiroitori 55]

I personally think this just like china cross-strait relations problem between Taiwan and China, except this more of an extreme case as the US are more heavily involved and there is much higher tension. Though, you can see the similarities between the two situations, except the fact that China isn't like NK and is smart enough not to draw this attention to the world and is trying reduce the brink of war yet still moving its ballistic missiles and increasing there range onto the Taiwan Strait. Although eventually the tension between the two could break out as Taiwan is continuing to gain support for independence.
However this is more of a long term thing.
As for NK and SK there reasoning is much different as NK takes a much more extreme approach, though like Taiwan and China they were both separated through history. 
 

[Dashafrash. 34]

The truth about North Korea.

 

[ROFLyoshi 1,760]

Issuing a diplomatic warning is kind of the last act before open hostilities.  The NK is now walking on the edge of a razor.

 

^ I'll bet that the attitude in Poland in 1939 was about the same.

 

The world seeks peace?  Then why not create a permanent set of peace enforcers?  There are enough belligerent states around right now that they need some watchdogs to snarl at them.

Then who will police the police?

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

^ An old Roman saying "Cui ipsos custodes custodiet?".  A watch dog would certainly be necessary.  Since the UN currently contains a bunch of states that would otherwise be at war with each other it is hard to say.  Who watches the current de facto "world police"?

[LexusInfernus 908]

Why would you want the UN to be the world police? Before the UN can police anything, first the US, GB, France, Russia and China would have to agree. Russia and China dislike policing. Not to mention that such a thing leaves out countries like India and Brazil from having any say in who and where polices anything. 

 

And on top of that, the UN tends to be a crappy police agent. 

 

Besides, do we actually need an international policing organization? What use does it serve? It prevents one nation from attacking the other? Right, fine, what nations are currently at war with each other? India and Pakistan, Israel and Palestine, North Korea and South Korea and thats about it. Do any of those conflict zones need policing from an international police force? Nope, they do not. 

 

And what about more internal conflicts, like in Africa? Well, if they need help with dealing with rebels, they can ask, like in Mali. Or they don't and we have a civil war on our hands. Well, the UN charter first of all does not allow any kind of interventions if its a internal matter, and second of all, such interventions generally do not work. I mean, just try to police a place like Congo, thousands of square miles of jungle, with no infrastructure, and a government that is so utterly worthless that it will never ever have the legitimacy required to effectively bring peace and stability to the country. It would costs decades of a dedicated effort of hunting down rebels, policing the government, building up institutions, setting up a working infrastructure, etc before Congo is safe to leave. No state has the money nor political will to bind themselves to such a project.