Korean War Redux

[NMUSpidey 3,956]

I guess I'm So Ronery III wants us to know HE MEANS BUSINESS.  But first, hand him that pie, he's hungry again.

[JimCityBuilder 14]

So long as North Korea, China or the USA do not invade my region and cities in Sim City everything will be ok ... but please can modders out there develop a ploppable miliary base with nukes to help me protect myself from these aggressors ?

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

^ Now that sounds like a great opportunity for you to learn how to BAT.

 

The Yanks are spending a billion (or two?) beefing up their west coast missile shield.  I wonder if the NK bosses realize what would happen to their country if they tried that?  Hmmmm.  Lake Pyongyang?  Very reflective.

[Gurning_Chimp 398]

^ Now that sounds like a great opportunity for you to learn how to BAT.

 

The Yanks are spending a billion (or two?) beefing up their west coast missile shield.  I wonder if the NK bosses realize what would happen to their country if they tried that?  Hmmmm.  Lake Pyongyang?  Very reflective.

 

Where the only fish you can catch are these guys.

 

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Probably.  The blue glow of Cerenkov radiation could be seen from space.

[Wrightguy0 40]

The Rhetoric coming out of the North has been Brash and bold as of late, I guess this is what you should expect from a Military leader who's been thrust into the top job with out ever having actually lead a military. Kim Jong Un needs to consolidate his power and bring his generals to his side, How far he'll go to Prove himself to them is anybody's guess at this point.

 

I also never understood why the north reacted to the joint US/SK drills with such bile, until i learned that the north had staged joint drills with china as a prelude to a full scale invasion, to their military leaders, who have never been trained to think outside the box (which will probably cost them a war if they start one) The US? South Korean drills look like an Invasion tactic because that's the only thing North Korea used joint exercises for, and once again NK's Military doesn't seem to be able to think beyond itself and it's own experiences.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Poor parochial NK.  It isn't as if they haven't been invited to the party, its that they've picked up their ball and are hiding in the cellar.  All this jumping up and down like a six-year-old is just a tantrum, and they really have no idea what kind of switches are hanging on the wall in the kitchen.  One of these days, daddy is going to catch them a good one while they are on the way down and the switch is on the way up.  Poppa has already cut off their candy, so what's next.

 

{Pardon me for speaking in analogies, but I want to be sure everyone understands what life experience can teach the NKs}

[Bdub01 201]

If its true that NK is " in a state of war" with SK the US should have a preemptive strike .

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Now, you might think so, but in fact little boys having a tantrum are best ignored or sent to bed without supper.

[LexusInfernus 908]

If its true that NK is " in a state of war" with SK the US should have a preemptive strike .

A preemptive strike will certainly trigger a war, and a preemptive strike is not capable of destroying all missiles in one go. The North Koreans will likely get at least one shot at South Korea, which they will take when the US begins bombing them. 

 

Besides, everyone realizes that this is a bluff by the North Koreans. They don´t have the capacity to wage a war with the South and survive it. 

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Historically, some mad men have tried to take the world with them.

[Bdub01 201]

If its true that NK is " in a state of war" with SK the US should have a preemptive strike .

A preemptive strike will certainly trigger a war, and a preemptive strike is not capable of destroying all missiles in one go. The North Koreans will likely get at least one shot at South Korea, which they will take when the US begins bombing them.

Besides, everyone realizes that this is a bluff by the North Koreans. They don´t have the capacity to wage a war with the South and survive it.I don't think we should really do that of course. However the first bullet that crosses the border from NK means its on and I will bet it won't be like the remake of Red Dawn!!!

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

If the North attacks the South all that will happen is that the world will wind up with millions of North Koreans starving to death on our door step and we won't be able to get supplies to them fast enough. 

 

The US is carrying a really big stick.  Furthermore, they've waved it under the NK leadership's nose.

 

If NK attacks anyone else, the UN will ask China to step in a cool them off, that is, if there is anything left to cool.

[Bdub01 201]

If the North attacks the South all that will happen is that the world will wind up with millions of North Koreans starving to death on our door step and we won't be able to get supplies to them fast enough.

The US is carrying a really big stick. Furthermore, they've waved it under the NK leadership's nose.

If NK attacks anyone else, the UN will ask China to step in a cool them off, that is, if there is anything left to cool.

Who else could they attack? They are pretty isolated. Drop a bomb on Japan maybe? They wouldn't attack China their only ally. Just a lot of talk is all. Granted this is the most rhetoric I've heard from them since I don't know when but they would be really suicidal to invade SK.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Remember the last guy who took it all with him?  It took fifty years for Germany to recover.

[LexusInfernus 908]

It did not take 50 years for Germany to recover. The Marshall plan combined with Germany's industry and their inclusion in the European community 5 years after the war ensured that Germany recovered relatively quickly. 

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Depends on what you call recovery.  And it is only recently that this tail has been wagging the dog.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Back to main topic:  Cutting off your nose to spite your face.

 

Cutting off access to the Kaesong zone is NK's most foolish mistake so far.  They are the main beneficiaries and without the materiel from the South, it will soon run out of steam.

 

If Fearless Leader is being prompted by his military they really must be a stupid, greedy bunch of fools.  You don't feather your nest by pulling out your feathers.

 

A thought:  Maybe the NK military is setting up the Kim dynasty for a gigantic fall?

[NMUSpidey 3,956]

I had that very same thought this morning. Some long serving generals can't be thrilled with I'm So Ronery III in power ahead of them. There may yet be a Deng Xiao Ping among them.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

More noise from the peanut gallery.

 

The question is what are they really up to while everyone is concentrating on Fearless Leader's tantrums? 

 

I see even Boris and Natasha have suggested that they should cool it.  Maybe Rocket J. Squirrel should drop by in his latest drone and remind them how easy they are to reach.  Perhaps dropping a few fortune cookies (proper gander leaflets) on Pyongyang could make a point.  I like the fortune that says "What if this had been an H-bomb?".

[Wiecher 192]

Since it's the beginning of spring/end of the winter, they're nearly out of food supplies. It's the annual spring famine and to keep the people think their government is legit and not exploiting them, Kim Jong-un has to show that he will keep the Imperialist bad guys out of their beloved country. It's not aggression to the rest of the world, it's a political, internal move to make the North Korean common comrade think they're always under threat and that the Dear Leader is taking care of that.

[Bdub01 201]

The US is taking the threats seriously enough though. They areoving some Patriot missile defense systems closer to the region and dispatching the USS John McCain to the area is well. I think he is just trying to look good to his own people, so he can say, "See, the US has to take us seriously or else."

After all if he was serious about starting a war ( or renewing one) you don't usually spout out what and how your going to do it!!! Granted the USMC do give our their plans of attack in Afganistan a few years ago but they were the superior force and wanted the Taliban to know they were coming.

[Gurning_Chimp 398]

I'm getting really worried about the whole region. All it takes is one false move and Seoul is gone.

 

Seriously, all US/SK drills starts off with NK firing the first shot and Seoul being devastated.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Well, I really hope they have an alternate capitol more to the south.  Seoul is almost on the border.  Even if the NK just walked in, they'd be in Seoul in less than a day.

[FreewayofFlight 41]

If I know my South Korean geography well, 2 of 3 of South Korea's major metropolitan areas (Seoul and Incheon) are literally neighbors. Busan is on the southern tip of the peninsula nearest Japan.

[Cobraroll 138]

Well, I really hope they have an alternate capitol more to the south.  Seoul is almost on the border.  Even if the NK just walked in, they'd be in Seoul in less than a day.

 

Hardly, I'd say.

 

The biggest problem is the "sea of fire" scenario. North Korea has a bunch of conventional artillery stacked up along the border, with an estimated capability to fire half a million medium-heavy artillery shells into Seoul during the first hour of a conflict. They would be able to do a lot of damage to the infrastructure in the city.

 

However, a ground invasion is way less likely to succeed. They would have to move a lot of troops to the right place to have any hope of conquering Seoul. And given the American/South Korean satellite monitoring of that border, any concentration of troops would be discovered in due time to move a similar amount of troops to the South Korean side to defend the city. While the People's Army was struggling their way through the minefield and shooting at Seoul, the similarly numbered South Korean army would be shooting back, with the aid of American equipment (and the hardware of the South Korean army is quite world-class in itself too). I'd say the first few appearances of Apache helicopters would cause general panic among the invading army. Hellfire missiles and 30mm AP rounds do nasty stuff to tank columns and other vehicles, and without them it would be nigh-on impossible to take on a good MG or tank position. Meanwhile, all sorts of funny cluster missiles would rapidly deplete the numbers of operating North Korean artillery guns. A direct attack on South Korea would be outright disastrous, and that's not even counting the inevitable counter-attack. Yes, Seoul would bleed, but the backlash would spell doom for the regime in the North.

 

And in the case of a nuclear war, how would the North ever get a nuke into Seoul anyway? The missile shields of the US has been in the arms race for over half a century. The finest engineers of the Soviet Union have been outfitting their missiles with countermeasures, and the shields have gotten counter-counter-measures in response. Then the Soviets made a new countermeasure, and the Americans modified their shields in return. North Korea have barely been able to get their rockets off the ground properly, whereas the American Patriot can hit a baseball flying at Mach 3. An eventual North Korean missile (or worse, a bomber carrying a gravity-driven device) would be torn to shreds rather effortlessly.

 

The North Korean generals know rather well that they would barely scratch the South in an all-out war. However, they're soon finding themselves out of options when it comes to raising their voice in the exchange of threat. They are shrieking at the top of their voice now, threatening with nuclear war and closing Kaesong and everything, but are unable to go beyond words and symbolic actions without a massive rebuttal. If they want to keep playing the game, they will have to step down for a moment or two.

Let's just hope young Kim also is in touch with reality to such an extent that he knows how foolish it would be to go to war. The worst case scenario is that the regime starts believing their own propaganda. If suddenly the people in charge all believe it is both just and doable to go to war, then stuff will hit the fan rather quickly. Second worst-case scenario is a miscalculation, tickling the sleeping bear one time too many, and getting a full-blown retaliation in return when all they expected was a grumble. For instance, repeating the artillery stunt with those islands wouldn't be particularly wise, but if they believed they could get away with it a second time...

[Odainsaker 2,137]

They don't even have to walk into Seoul...simple artillery from within North Korea can hit the South Korean capital.  They don't need a multi-stage missile...a crude tactical nuclear projectile fired by artillery would be enough, and those have been around internationally since the 1950s.

 

For added proximity background, check out the Blue House Raid, North Korea's nearly successful attempt to infiltrate over the mountains into South Korea's executive house in Seoul and assassinate dictator general President Park Chung-hee.  That attempt failed, spurring the South Korean military government to setup a reprisal squad to assassinate dictator Great Leader Kim Il-sung.  That secret reprisal squad mutinied and had to be eliminated by the South Korean army, and later President Park Chung-hee was ultimately assassinated by his own security chief.  Park Geun-hye, the "daughter of the dictator," was recently elected as the new conservative president of South Korea, and already the inaugural test of her administration is in currently dealing with Kim Jong-un, the grandson of the dictator who had tried to kill her father.  Wiki tells us she is continuing the project to relocate government ministries further south to the newly planned Sejong City.

 

It's all so surreal...like an over-the-top James Bond movie.  Ronery Kim Jong-il fancied himself a great movie producer, and sent North Korean squads into the south the kidnap South Korea's most famous movie actress and her director husband, so that they could be brought back to North Korea to make movies for the Dear Leader.  Meanwhile, the best way to train agents Japanese language and customs was to secretly kidnap Japanese beachgoers and haul them back to North Korea as lifetime prisoners.

 

Even Cobra Commander couldn't dream this stuff up.

 

Perhaps it is time to openly start actively promoting reunification plans headed by South Korea, focusing especially on the money to be invested by South Korea, the U.S., China, Japan, and Russia in stabilizing and rehabilitating the North, with an outlook on how a reintegrated North with its natural resources can restore lucrative economic connections throughout the region.  Mineral-rich, labor-cheap North Korea sits as a black hole dividing consumerist South Korea and Japan from industrial Manchuria and resource-rich Siberia, all of which have to circle around the North when they really want to be shuttling through.  When the middle and outer rings of the North Korean and Chinese leaderships admit how much opportunity wealth they are losing, perhaps then things will change.

[LexusInfernus 908]

Conventional artillery is nice, but the moment they open up fire on Seoul, they become a rather easy target for bombers. As for firing half a million rounds within an hour, that seems extremely unlikely. The range is about 35 miles, which is a pretty long range. Most of those long range artillery guns they have are old and have a slow rate of fire. They would need closer range artillery, and even then they would require a lot of them. As in, tens of thousands of them. They apparently have the largest artillery force in the world, sure, but do they have it of that magnitude? Also, having the guns is nice, but do they also have the supplies on site? Half a million artillery shells is quite logistical operation. 

 

The argument that North Korea has a lot of AA protecting those artillery sites is nice, but the US has bombers that fly at heights that no AA gun can reach, certainly not the old Soviet junk the Koreans use. Not to mention that its hard to accurately hit planes that are also invisible on radar. 

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

And the Internet predators step in.

[Bdub01 201]

^ I noticed that one group stated that "We are Anonymous"... So tell us, is it you Mr A Nonny Moose???