Afgans strike it RICH!!!

[617squad 52]

USGS (United States Geological Survey) scientists in Afganistan have found evidence of a huge pocket of valuable minerals, including gold, copper, and lithium... read more in enclosed link: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html?no_interstitial

[SomeRandomAmerican 5]

I'm not surprised. Afghanistan ha been a largely untapped area for resources, what with continuous war, turmoil, and other forms of unrest tearing the country apart for the last half century, no one ever had the chance to look.

[JayStimson 211]

Just what the world needs. Another country full of barbarians with lots of money.

[SC4BOY 20]

I suspect that their corrupt governance, along with near war-lord operation of most of the country, that the average citizen will see little or no change over their "cash crop" of drugs which brought multi-millions into their economy. None of it seems to have accrued to the legitimate citizens per se.

[GMT 389]

wonderfull. first a big player in global drug production, now loads of valuable minerals for plenty more billions to invest in golden castles and golden ak-47s and other generosities for the starving population.

[Easy Bakes 253]

now they can make Lap top batteries.

[sneakeypete 16]

Or, they could, you know, sell off the resources for a fraction of their value to a company, that will come in and mine it itself for a large profit. Happens practically everywhere, heck even the USA. Think about it, all the different oil companies there and the amount of money they're making off of it, then consider the amount that they're actually paying to the government.

[saltandsauce 0]

wow, the USA invading a thought-to-be-barren-wasteland-that's-actually-chock-full-of-untapped-wealth

who'd have thought it. Vietnam that wasn't thought to be barren but turned out to have all kinds of minerals (and productive farmland with 3 crops a year)

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Whoever said the Afghans are uncivilized?  They were civilized at the time of Alexander the Great.  It is just that they have evolved into a highly decadent state.  They have a staggering culture, and it only needs some incentive  to revive it.

[-Lexus- 2]

Meh. Big deal. It will all remain untapped if they dont get a stable government. No way that they are going to bother with mining that ***** when there is no infrastructure and IED's are a ever remaining danger.  

[Loney 22]

I see some problems...

-Afganistan is overall poor and has possibly corrupted government, not to mention it isn't very stable. Good for the wealthy but could potentially harm the rest of the citzens. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse

-You know how Taliban gets most of its money from drug selling? Now imagine if they got hold of some of the mines.

-If most of the citzens are angry since they aren't benifting from the mineral wealth and there are a few rich people driving around with $100,000+ cars, then they might join whoever would help them. Taliban comes to mind. The last thing NATO and US want is more insurgents.

On the other hand...

-If various companies set up their mines in the area and their mines are being threatened by the Taliban, then they will foot the pressure on their government to assist NATO and US, espicially for China since its government is extremely pro-business.

The mineral wealth in the region is a double bladed sword. It could bring additional support for NATO and US from other countries but it might also anger even more people living in Afganistan.

[chicah 20]

Hmm.I wonder if someone in the White House didn't see this coming... Just saying.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

First off, no one will risk the venture capital needed to "bring in" these minerals while things are unstable, so that means that Karzai, the Taliban, and all the warring hill tribes had better settle down if they want to see any royalties from the resources.

As far as corruption goes, it is a way of life in that part of the world.  It depends on how much theft, graft and bribery you are willing to put up with in order to get things done.  They only charge what the traffic will bear.  If they get too greedy, the traffic dries up.  I think this is a practical example of the law of supply and demand.  Things are just a little more primitive and direct in these eastern countries, and the quid pro quo is paid in gold bars or deposits in anonymous bank accounts.

Now, as for the resources.  Just because the USGS had some survey results doesn't mean that any of the "lodes" are ever going to be productive.  Just getting rid of the overburden is so much work that ownership of the whole thing must be morally and actually taken on by the entire populace in order to get any kind of work force.  You can't expect to import labour for this, and the power supply for automation is pretty chancy.  Anyone intending to do anything with this wealth will have to take a page from the ancient Egyptians and convince the people that it is their duty and privilege to work on this.  This is going to be like building the great pyramid, and current wisdom says this was done with a very willing and well-looked-after community of workers.  Foreigners need not apply.  A lot of the farm labour, currently in poppy production, will be needed to operate these facilities.  The Afghanis are the ones to do it.  They know the country and are used to the climate. 

In a few years, I expect Afghan Hounds will become very popular.

[sneakeypete 16]

Heh, they're already going to bid it out. nice one, selling themselves short!

As for the resources, i think the fact that they are productive is the whole reason for the fuss mate. I'm sure that leading geoligists aren't as silly not to factor in that.

[617squad 52]

yes, it's a pity that wealth is a double edged sword. but soddingly enough, it is a pain now that the afgans have a motherload on their hands on top of corruption, a seemingly never ending civil war, and extreamists somehow getting to power underneath everyone's nose. sounds a bit like the wild west back in the day, don't it? all it's missing is a sagebrush and some cati..

[SomeRandomAmerican 5]

Originally posted by: 617squad

sounds a bit like the wild west back in the day, don't it? all it's missing is a sagebrush and some cati..quote>

Yes, but now it has tanks and AK-47s. Far better than a Winchester and some six-shooters if you ask me.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Whoa, Tony!  The mix isn't right.  Just because a geologist says the stuff is there, and maybe even workable, doesn't mean that the capital to do it is going to rush into a war zone.  Trade needs peace to get anything done.  It doesn't matter about corruption in the western sense.  That's just business as usual in the eastern sense, so deploring this is silly.  When in Rome ...

With this report of mineral wealth in the Afghan country side, we get another incentive for someone to take the country over and impose peace.  If the hill tribes want to keep fighting among themselves, let them.  There will soon be fewer hill tribes.  Just keep them penned up in the hills.

People have been trying to pacify Afghanistan for centuries without success.  Alexander the Great couldn't do it, the British Raj couldn't do it, what makes you think the current world with its history of over half a century of messy peace and pacifism can do it?  The peace, if it ever comes, can come only from the Afghanis themselves, and will probably be in the form of a dictatorship.  These people will only achieve a democracy when there is generally good education, and that can't be imposed from outside or by outsiders.

[JanYpe 17]

Originally posted by: JayStimson

Just what the world needs. Another country full of barbarians with lots of money.quote>

Yes, it´s becoming more like the US every day.

Originally posted by: chicah

Hmm.I wonder if someone in the White House didn't see this coming... Just saying.quote>

The people who led the charge into Afghanistan were the same ones who thought they could bring democracy to Iraq, with at most a month or two of fighting. 

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

In the long run, and I do mean l-o-n-g, the west's involvement in Afghanistan will turn into another Viet Nam, but with even worse results.  Everyone just now is planning an exit strategy, even if they are not talking about it.  Afghanistan has been there a long time without significant change.  When we leave, they will go back to their old ways but with a new set of dislikes that will make the feelings the Kims in North Korea have for the west seem like a mild distaste.

If I was a westerner, I would stay as far away from the Khyber Pass as possible and still be on earth.  We have bred another hotbed of hatred for the west, no matter how much we try to convince ourselves that we are doing good.  This is just more of Mr. Bush's phony war to hide from the fact that he was mushroom managed by the intelligence community.  America should stop running into doors.  Two or three black eyes are enough.

[Barbarossa 51]

.

  Edited September 8, 2012 by Barbarossa  

[DocRorlach 25]

Don't quite see what is so "new" about this: the mineral deposits in the northern provinces around Maz-A-Sharif were part of the reason the then King's uncle made a deal with the then Russian government because the King did not want to share the possible spoils with anyone. Although the extend of the deposits was only guessed at (Aussie geologists were advising the royal house at the time), the possibility of full exploitation was part of the reason the Russian Army invaded, about two month after I left Kabul. It was general parlance among journalists in town that there might be money in the largely unaccesible region, as well as possibly in the "swiss cheese" mountains north of Jalalbhad.

In any case, all of those areas are under tribal control. Unless the US Armed Forces are willing to turn the country into another Iraq fiasco, the Kabul government will be hard pressed to get to the stuff. Might be another story if it was oil or gas.

[saltandsauce 0]

Lithium my lower posterior!

my friend, OIL is there, OIL. it is potentially bigger than Saudi arabia's oilfield.

a shallow sea with no through currents that closed up and then dried up. that is oilfield creation.

[DocRorlach 25]

Originally posted by: saltandsauce

Lithium my lower posterior!

my friend, OIL is there, OIL. it is potentially bigger than Saudi arabia's oilfield.

a shallow sea with no through currents that closed up and then dried up. that is oilfield creation.

quote>

Sorry, oil's out. Afghanistan never had the conditions in pre-history like Asia Minor or Africa, or even good old Scottland:

Wikipedia:

Three conditions must be present for oil reservoirs to form: a source rock that is rich in hydrocarbon material buried deep enough for subterranean heat to cook it into oil; a porous and permeable reservoir rock for it to accumulate in. There a rock cap (seal) prevents it from escaping towards the surface. Within these reservoirs, fluids will typically organize themselves like a three-layer cake with a layer of water below the oil layer and a layer of gas above it, although the different layers vary in size between reservoirs. Because most hydrocarbons are lighter than rock or water, they often migrate upward through adjacent rock layers until either reaching the surface or becoming trapped within porous rocks (known as oil reservoir) underneath impermeable (not permeable), rocks above. However, this process can influenced by underground water flows, causing petroleum to migrate hundreds of kilometers horizontally, and even short distances downward, before becoming trapped in an oil reservoir. When hydrocarbons are concentrated in a trap, an oil field forms, from which the liquid or natural gas can be extracted by drilling and allowing the petroleum to escape under its natual pressure. Pumping is only utilized as a last resort for recovering petroleum.quote>

While most of the rock in Afghanistan is permeable (hence the "Swiss Cheese" reference) and looks like Mordor - after a few million dwarfs gave up digging, the water reservoirs below were missing, as were sufficient organics, such as lush forests or dinosaurs - both of which you had around in America, Europe. Africa and the Middle East. The former shallows are not enough. Besides, when the Himalias formed whatever oil might have been created would have been pushed out to the edges, like to Pakistan, southern Russia and northern Iran.

So, besides the poppy fields and the minerals, camel dung is about the only abundant resource left. Oh, yeah, forgot: human lives of course may be left after the Taliban pushed out Nato and the current Kabul regime - but not too much.

[Msprintz 25]

Originally posted by: JayStimson

Just what the world needs. Another country full of barbarians with lots of money.quote>

Actually mineral wealth is exactly what that region needs, as that can feed heavy industry.  With heavy industrial development, jobs will be provided ( it won't be limited to Afghanistan either ).  I can guarantee other nations within that region will develop heavy industries to tap those resources.  Perhaps this will make the world most volatile region a little more peacful. 

Granted it took 30 years for the maps to get out, who knows how long it'll take to actually mine the stuff. 

[Fresh Prince of Wmbg 44]

But how long will it take? There's no doubt western companies will go into Afghanistan this quarter of the century. But somehow I see Russia china and India there first, don't know why either.

Don't see why this was a big deal. NOBOBY has been this empire-graveyard long enough to take control over these resources. if you look deep enough the surface you'll find resources under any nation and even the oceans.

BTW --- this sound like a real bad Sims city 3000 scenario.... You found mineral deposits in your land. Your town is occupied by a foreign force that the local populace is not too fond of. Your have some restless terror...err... i meant bandits that take part in illegal activity and you have a real crappy police force. The citizens are mostly uneducated and in poor health, easily preside by these bandits. You got 25 year turn this around and attract some big corporations to exploit your land, train your workforce, build better infrastructure and killed the bandits. The foreign force will leave within the first 5 years and after that you're on your own. But foreign force has given millions of dollars to built your nation-...err... i mean town , courtesy of their taxpayers.

Good luck

[Loney 22]

Originally posted by: Fresh Prince of Wmbg

BTW --- this sound like a real bad Sim city 3000 scenario.... You found mineral deposits in your land. Your town is occupied by a foriegn force that the local poulace is not too fond of. Your have some restless terror...err... i meant bandits that take part in illegal activity and you have a real crappy police force. The citizens are mostly uneducated and in poor health, easily presaude by these bandits. You got 25 year turn this around and attarct some big corporations to exploit your land, train your workforce, build better infranstrucuture and killed the bandits. The foriegn force will leave within the first 5 years and after that youre on your own. But foriegn force has given millions of dollars to built your natio-...errr... i mean town , courtesy of their taxpayers.

Good luck

quote>

Spam police stations, hospitals, and schools till you get results. What? Its a completely legit stragety, well, in SC3K.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Mordor indeed.  Only an active volcano is missing.  There are certainly enough orcs of various stripes, and the elves are going into the west soon, leaving the hobbits to fend for themselves.

All kidding aside, the exploiters from outside will be:  Russia, because they are next door;  China, because they are also next door; and the IndoPakistanis because they are at the other end of the Khyber pass.  The supply lines are really too long for any others, especially since this is a hostile political and physical environment.  Don't expect much to happen in the next three or four decades because they have to imprison the dark lords first.  The problem here is that they don't have an all powerful ring to solve their problems, and no golden dragons, either, although there is a bunch of them on the border.

Because Russia is still essentially in a turmoil after the collapse of the Soviets, China is my choice for exploitarion.  They have the manpower and increasingly large resources and industrialization to do the job.  Because of the ideological turmoil between India and Packistan, I think they will miss this boat.  Be prepared for China to colonize, industrially, the Afghans.  The next thing will be an almost painless annexation once they have enough people on the ground. 

Now, Afghanistan is a nice, ripe peach, ready for plucking.

[Easy Bakes 253]

Originally posted by: A Nonny Moose

Mordor indeed.  Only an active volcano is missing.  There are certainly enough orcs of various stripes, and the elves are going into the west soon, leaving the hobbits to fend for themselves.

All kidding aside, the exploiters from outside will be:  Russia, because they are next door;  China, because they are also next door; and the IndoPakistanis because they are at the other end of the Khyber pass.  The supply lines are really too long for any others, especially since this is a hostile political and physical environment.  Don't expect much to happen in the next three or four decades because they have to imprison the dark lords first.  The problem here is that they don't have an all powerful ring to solve their problems, and no golden dragons, either, although there is a bunch of them on the border.

Because Russia is still essentially in a turmoil after the collapse of the Soviets, China is my choice for exploitarion.  They have the manpower and increasingly large resources and industrialization to do the job.  Because of the ideological turmoil between India and Packistan, I think they will miss this boat.  Be prepared for China to colonize, industrially, the Afghans.  The next thing will be an almost painless annexation once they have enough people on the ground. 

Now, Afghanistan is a nice, ripe peach, ready for plucking.

quote>

Thats probably what  russia thought in 1979

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Originally posted by: Easy Bakes

Originally posted by: A Nonny Moose

Now, Afghanistan is a nice, ripe peach, ready for plucking.

quote>

Thats probably what  russia thought in 1979

quote>

Maybe, but here we are, twenty years after, when the peach is now nicely ripe and full of juice.  I have no idea what the Ruskies were after twenty years ago other than to emulate the U.S.'s Viet Namese war.

[DocRorlach 25]

Very well put, Moose. The only part you omitted is the souther route from Khandar, leading through a nice hostile desert to the sea around Pakistan. But as I said earlier, Russia was "called in" by the kings uncle, to secure the already lucrative drug routes being set upon by the tribal warlords, and to exploit the then possibility of the mineral riches the Aussies thought were there.

And if both the US & Nato do pull out from an active war, that leaves Putin some brand new options. Nobody ever learns from history, least of all politicians.