World Affairs

[Dreadnought 8,226]

At least it seems to me there is more will to act united then half a year ago.

Let us hope so --

Benjamin Franklin is often quoted as saying --

"We may all hang together, but we will, most assuredly, hang separately!"

TOGETHER -- the most threatened nations (mainly Europe) and the US have a massive combined power.  If they act now -- they can mortally wound these barbarians and boot them out of their so-called caliphate.  They may not completely end the menace of terrorist attacks on their homelands, but they will force the animals into hiding where it becomes more difficult to operate.

Continued pacifist delaying tactics will only yield the certainty of another "Paris" somewhere in the world and continuing unrest in the Middle East -- thereby prolonging the exodus of the refugees.

It is FAR BETTER to act -- than to react!!

[Dreadnought 8,226]

WELL -- !!!

It would appear the Turks have added a new and potentially ugly dimension to the Syrian debacle.

It is, perhaps, not surprising.  The Russians and the Turks have been at each others' throats for centuries.  And both of them have a paranoid fear of being attacked.  And they are equally angered when intruders ignore warnings to leave their air space.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

This whole business is getting out of control.  Maybe it is time to re-establish an empire or two controlled by the original empire builders.  It has been a long time since Prince Henry the Navigator, but the Portuguese seem to be the best bet to control all this.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

This whole business is getting out of control.

Sounds like you're quoting Fred Thompson out of the movie "Hunt For Red October" !

I seem to remember saying the same thing when the Russkies opened up for business in Syria.

As for Empire --

Someone's already working on that -- but the first guy can't get past the Turkish jets -- and the other looney-tune called it a caliphate.

Wouldn't give either one of them a farthing for their chances!

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Come to think of it, I did watch the Hunt for Red October the other night.  Oh well, there is no question that the Turks have more on their plate than just the Syrian mess.  In the end, it would seem that the Kurds will get they way.

Later: BBC Report

Sounds like a matter of 'he said, she said'.  The Russki pilot said there was no warning.  Do you suppose these guys don't know what frequencies to use?

  Edited November 25, 2015 by A Nonny Moose  
Added feed from BBC

[Dreadnought 8,226]

Come to think of it, I did watch the Hunt for Red October the other night.  Oh well, there is no question that the Turks have more on their plate than just the Syrian mess.  In the end, it would seem that the Kurds will get they way.

Later: BBC Report

Sounds like a matter of 'he said, she said'.  The Russki pilot said there was no warning.  Do you suppose these guys don't know what frequencies to use?

Yo, Nonny --

Yeah -- the Turks have got a real political time bomb ticking.  The government is repressive and the natives are getting restless.  Any time Turkey gets into the headlines, it becomes blatantly obvious that their government is both "shady" and precarious!

I sincerely hope the Kurds get what they want.  I've long held that the best thing we could do would be to set them up in their own country -- help them push their boundaries out as far as they want to go or as far as we can persuade them to go -- and then protect their new sovereign nation.  It could stabilize at least 1/3 of Irag and maybe even parts of Syria.  Not much in the grand scheme of things -- but 1/3 is better than zippo!

Turk -- Russkie / Russkie - Turk -- the liar is always on the "other" side.  Russian pilots have been known to completely ignore the International IFF channels before.  The Turks have been known to shoot first and ask questions later.  And the Russians are famous for denying everything after a plane goes down.  Besides -- if you were that Russian pilot, would you argue with Czar Vladamir I  ??

As for the Turks -- I wouldn't want to be a Turkish pilot right now.  That Russian air defense cruiser is likely to shoot at the first thing flying that isn't an airliner! 

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

The problem with Turkey is that they have bitten a wooden leg and their teeth hurt.  They represent the relict of the Ottoman Empire and haven't gotten over the fact that it is all gone.  Read Laurence’s Seven Pillars of Wisdom and you'll understand why.

New Topic: Japan plans to resume whaling.

If one decigram of the whale meat is sold for human consumption or made into pet food, the Japanese should be sanctioned in the strongest possible way.  W hates are possibly an intelligent species.  If so, this is just plain murder.

  Edited November 28, 2015 by A Nonny Moose  
New Topic

[Dreadnought 8,226]

The problem with Turkey is that they have bitten a wooden leg and their teeth hurt.  They represent the relict of the Ottoman Empire and haven't gotten over the fact that it is all gone.  Read Laurence’s Seven Pillars of Wisdom and you'll understand why.

New Topic: Japan plans to resume whaling.

If one decigram of the whale meat is sold for human consumption or made into pet food, the Japanese should be sanctioned in the strongest possible way.  W hates are possibly an intelligent species.  If so, this is just plain murder.

I tried Laurence's book way back in school -- and I decided he was too biased -- never finished it. 

The Turks haven't been an "Empire" -- as such -- for a long, long time.  And it's obvious they still think they can run with the big dogs.  Jeeez -- Look at WW I.  They had no business getting into that one, and lost their shirt.  Right now -- I think they're "P-offed" because the Russians keep bombing their Turkomen allies in northern Syria.  Let's see if the Russkies drop some more bombs on them.

I don't care what anyone says -- whales ARE an intelligent species.  Quite possibly the ONLY intelligent species on the planet!  Mr. Spock may have been onto something!  And I agree -- sanctions would be in order.  The Japanese can do without their version of veal!!

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

In order to read The Seven Pillars of Wisdom you have to put aside your disbelief and put yourself in the position of a young British officer in the desert in WW I.  This may be difficult for many.  I read that book when I was in my 20s (more than 50 years ago) and I remain impressed by some of the incidents.  Laurence had a great deal to do with uniting the Tuareg tribes against the Tripartite powers.  Remember that at the time Turkey was part of the German pact and therefore enemies.  I've never considered them to be anything else, and question why they should be in NATO.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

Remember that at the time Turkey was part of the German pact and therefore enemies.  I've never considered them to be anything else, and question why they should be in NATO.

You know, Nonny -- I've never been able to figure out why they are in NATO, either.

The Dardanelles don't exactly open into the North Atlantic -- and Turkey has virtually NOTHING in common with the rest of Europe.

The only reason I can see for letting them into NATO is because they have always been anti-Russian.  They came in handy during The Cold War.  I guess that's as good a reason as any.

[Odainsaker 2,135]

Well, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, and even Germany were also part of the WWI Central Powers and therefore enemies, but they too are now members of NATO, as is Tripartite Pact and WWII Axis founder Italy.  Yes, all their autocratic and fascist regimes are gone, but so is the Ottoman sultanate, which was overthrown by a Westernizing republic under Atatürk after the breakup and defeat of the Ottoman Empire.

More questionable is the accession of Turkey into the European Union, which has been a goal for both for many years but has been hampered by a host of internal and regional problems which Ankara dares not pop open lest it all sends their country into instant upheaval.  These are not necessarily insurmountable issues themselves, but they are going to take a long time to resolve as Turkey indeed does have cultural roots that are profoundly different from mainland Europe.  However, time is also a problem...Turkey's trajectory towards the EU has crawled for almost two decades, and in that time attitudes of the Turkish public have shifted to pessimism, immediate social and regional problems have dramatically escalated, and Erdoğan and the AKP have seemingly grown more conservatively authoritarian.  You know they are in trouble when the president builds himself a mega-palace while pushing to rewrite the constitution to gain more executive powers.

Like post-Soviet Russia, which was allowed by the messiness of Yeltsin the slide under the jackboot of Putin, Turkey too could slip away.  Until the recent shoot down, Erdoğan and Putin were beginning to court each other as authoritarian buddies, scheming up oil pipeline deals while Erdoğan showed off his new Turkish Versailles.  Interestingly, Turkey has already suffered shoot downs of its own aircraft by Assad, endured actual cross-border shelling of its territory by the Syrian government, had first Syrian and now Russian warplanes in combat breach its airspace, struggled to care for multiple millions of Syrians being driven into its overwhelmed refugee camps by the chaotic fighting, had scores of hostages taken captive by ISIS, been outright attacked with ISIS-linked terrorist suicide bombings in Istanbul and Ankara, and has a frighteningly porous border directly with ISIS-held areas, yet, even though Turkey is a full NATO member and has repeatedly called alliance emergency meetings, NATO has been particularly subdued in its non-response to these crises.  All the bluster about NATO solidarity ran parallel with red lines regarding Assad's use of chemical weapons, and they both ran nowhere.  This to me is a sign of how much the West had been trying to duck the quicksand mess left festering in Syria until it finally bit them in Paris, but, for the Turkish people, this may instead be a bitter signal of how much they are still and will long remain outsiders to Europe and the West, and this disappointment with their own allies over basic and immediate national security may push them further into the grip of anti-Western conservative nationalism.  While Turkey is never going to be as liberal, secular, or democratic as we would absolutely like anytime soon, it has not yet skewed itself into a full-blown Islamic Republic either, and I think it is better for both ourselves and for Turkey that we keep them at least aiming to be a liberal, secular, European democracy rather than driving them to walk away from it.

 

(EDIT:  Oops, I forgot that EU-member Austria is not a member of NATO, as its Cold War neutrality was a special condition for its post-WWII restoration of national sovereignty.)

 

[Fantozzi 4,067]

Seems to me Turkey made a mistake. And even Erdogan knows it and called it an "accident" lately.

But Turkey is not the only one making such mistakes.  (it is probalby that this flight was shoot down over neutral territories, when it had left russian air space already).

How russia reacts – treating it like an act against the nation not as an act of self defence – for me this is another step towards a paranoia that they think they are sourrounded by evil enemies trying to destroy them. You could call this paranoia also 'cold war'.

 

  Edited November 30, 2015 by fantozzi  

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

^ This Russian strain of paranoia is catching.  Stalin most certainly had it, and it seems to have passed down to Putin.  Then, on the other hand, we have jumped up little satraps like Turkey which deserves to cease to exist as presently set up.  The mess in the middle east is largely the result of the dissolution of the French and British empires.  "The people" want independence?  Nonsense.  The people want full bellies and warm beds.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Now that is a great deal of specie.

A real windfall for the government of Columbia.  With this kind of injection of capital, much can be done.

Museums may want a share of this, but they should only be caretakers, not owners.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

IS takes advantage of unrest in Yemen.

These parasites not only have a nest on the Iraq/Syria border, but like all opportunistic parasites they horn-in wherever possible.  Pass the insecticide, please.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Russia/Turkey tension

Unfortunately for the Russians, Turkey is a member of NATO.  If I was Vlad Putin, I'd review Article 5 of the NATO agreement before allowing any further escalation.  Also, Turkey needs a good talking to from the NATO secretariat.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

On 12/13/2015 at 0:23 PM, A Nonny Moose said:

Russia/Turkey tension

Unfortunately for the Russians, Turkey is a member of NATO.  If I was Vlad Putin, I'd review Article 5 of the NATO agreement before allowing any further escalation.  Also, Turkey needs a good talking to from the NATO secretariat.

Yo know, Nonny --

Czar Vladimir The Fourth has a serious problem.

He's been rattling his sabre all over Europe and the Middle East for over a year now -- and the Russian peasants love their strong, virile "Little Father".  He squints as he smiles and threatens serious consequences -- and the Russian people applaud loud and long as he puts the Western Democracies in their place.

Now -- the horrid Turks have dared to legally shoot down one of his planes.  He has threatened them with fire and brimstone -- but they do not back down.  What's more -- they have called his bluff!!!

How much longer does Vlad IV threaten the Turks -- before he must act?  If he continues to merely threaten, the great masses of the Proletariat will discover that their "Little Father" has feet of clay and that his threats are empty.  How much longer before they realize Putin's promises are bankrupt -- just like Russia -- because he has stolen their nation blind? 

"Uncle Putie" bought into the Syrian squabble -- and as I stated before -- he now "owns" whatever trouble he causes.  "Putie" is no longer shouting rude remarks from "the cheap seats" -- he deliberately put himself at the center of the trouble.  (Cocky little runt, ain't he?)  Now he is beginning to see the dangers of inviting himself to a free-for-all!!

If he does not "shoot a Turk", so to speak, all these threats represent a "red line" he does not dare cross.  In America, we already know what that means.  For Vladimir IV, it means he will lose popularity with the people and will be forced to retain power in the old-fashioned "Soviet" way -- KGB / NKVD.  He has stolen so much from the Russian people that he dare not relinquish power while he still breaths.

For Europe -- the choice will be to back-up Article 5 and stand as one united front -- or to go all chicken-s*** and leave the Turks out on a limb. 

For Vladimir IV, the choice will be to go to war with Turkey and hope NATO goes weak in the knees and stays home.

But, surely, even "Putie" knows there is a limit to how far he can push Europe.  Fifty years of Cold War should have taught him something -- right??  And Chancellor Merkel is at least as crafty as he is -- and certainly far more principled.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

How man Russian tzars have ended with a soft scarf tied firmly around their necks?  Being a tzar of all the Russias is a dangerous job, and the Boyars these days are not at all noble.  Many men at the top of the Russian pyramid were mad.  You only have to look at the clock scene in Boris Godunov, or the record of Josip Stalin.

Or maybe they'll just take him down to the cellar and shoot him.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

6 hours ago, A Nonny Moose said:

How man Russian tzars have ended with a soft scarf tied firmly around their necks?  Being a tzar of all the Russias is a dangerous job, and the Boyars these days are not at all noble.  Many men at the top of the Russian pyramid were mad.  You only have to look at the clock scene in Boris Godunov, or the record of Josip Stalin.

Or maybe they'll just take him down to the cellar and shoot him.

The cellar is my personal favorite --

But I think they'll go with one of those tiny radiation pellets -- no marks on the body -- state funeral and all that...

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

12 hours ago, Dreadnought said:

The cellar is my personal favorite --

But I think they'll go with one of those tiny radiation pellets -- no marks on the body -- state funeral and all that...

I think you have your methods crossed.  The tiny pellets contain ricin (enough to kill a horse).  Very hard to find on a tox screen.  Also not radioactive.  I think PU239 is too clumsy.  I think I really prefer Barium Acetate (La Cantarella).  With this one, subject dies of kidney failure two weeks later.  Lucretia Borgia'a favourite, administered at dinner.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

3 hours ago, A Nonny Moose said:

I think you have your methods crossed.  The tiny pellets contain ricin (enough to kill a horse).  Very hard to find on a tox screen.  Also not radioactive.  I think PU239 is too clumsy.  I think I really prefer Barium Acetate (La Cantarella).  With this one, subject dies of kidney failure two weeks later.  Lucretia Borgia'a favourite, administered at dinner.

As long as he doesn't turn green -- they'll have him EXACTLY where they want him! (lol)

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Finally, the Arab/Islamic world decides to not tolerate "terrorism" any longer.

But the big surprise will be their definition of a terrorist and terrorism.  Islamic countries have some funny ideas based in the Sharia.  However, we note that they have excluded the big Shi'a nations, so we wonder if this is not a Sunni Jihad against the Shi'a or they are really serious about the ISIS heretics.

[LexusInfernus 908]

21 hours ago, A Nonny Moose said:

How man Russian tzars have ended with a soft scarf tied firmly around their necks?  Being a tzar of all the Russias is a dangerous job, and the Boyars these days are not at all noble.  Many men at the top of the Russian pyramid were mad.  You only have to look at the clock scene in Boris Godunov, or the record of Josip Stalin.

Or maybe they'll just take him down to the cellar and shoot him.

`Hardly. Being related to the Tzar was a dangerous job, being the Tzar, eh, no more dangerous than being a king anywhere else. 

Nor were 'many men at the top' actually mad. Except for Ivan the Terrible and I think one other, they generally weren't mad. Stalin wasn't mad, Stalin was a ruthless, cold sociopath. The rest were either ruthlessly competent or ruthlessly incompetent. 

The thing about Russia is that its kind of an exception in history. Generally 'great person' history is a flawed way of looking at history. Great people generally only have a tiny amount of influence on the course of history. Except in Russia, were the direction Russia took was almost entirely dependent on who was in charge at any given moment and what was his or her mood. 

And I very much doubt Putin and Turkey are gonna escalate things much further. Russia's military capabilities are already stretched under normal circumstances, but helping out Ukrainian rebels, supporting Assad AND THEN also getting into a hot conflict with the Turks and NATO is not something he is capable of doing. 

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

^ I wouldn't put that little scenario past Mr. Putin.  Nobody thought Hitler would attack Russia, either, especially because they had a non-aggression pact and were actively trading.  Putin is a cop who has been jumped up to be the head clown and the pressure may do odd things to his thinking.  I'm not sure how far NATO is willing to play head games with Mr. Putin.  Those tempers can be short.

[LexusInfernus 908]

2 hours ago, A Nonny Moose said:

^ I wouldn't put that little scenario past Mr. Putin.  Nobody thought Hitler would attack Russia, either, especially because they had a non-aggression pact and were actively trading.  Putin is a cop who has been jumped up to be the head clown and the pressure may do odd things to his thinking.  I'm not sure how far NATO is willing to play head games with Mr. Putin.  Those tempers can be short.

Yeah but that is irrelevant. If you want to fight a conflict, you need troops and more importantly, you need a logistical set up that can supply said troops. The Russian army is involved in two separate conflicts at the moment, adding a third conflict to that list will stretch the Russian logistical capabilities to a breaking point. He would have to significantly dial back on his involvement in either Ukraine or Syria, which can possibly mean losing control of the situation there. Will he do that just so he can escalate a conflict with Turkey which gains him nothing? 

No I think hes smart and that he realizes that as long as he keeps complaining about how Turkey messed up (and make no mistake, Turkey did mess this one up badly) he can use it to slap NATO around politically, potentially even create a wedge between NATO members. 

[Dreadnought 8,226]

32 minutes ago, LexusInfernus said:

No I think hes smart and that he realizes that as long as he keeps complaining about how Turkey messed up (and make no mistake, Turkey did mess this one up badly) he can use it to slap NATO around politically, potentially even create a wedge between NATO members. 

Finally -- !

Someone who thinks Vlad IV is as devious as Machiavelli but maybe not quite as smart.

Personally, I think if NATO went chest-to-chest with him he'd drop all that bluster and realize he's not nearly strong enough to fight a whole bunch of countries with far better economies!  Yeah -- he's got the nuclear card -- but he can't play it!!

[LexusInfernus 908]

11 minutes ago, Dreadnought said:

Finally -- !

Someone who thinks Vlad IV is as devious as Machiavelli but maybe not quite as smart.

Personally, I think if NATO went chest-to-chest with him he'd drop all that bluster and realize he's not nearly strong enough to fight a whole bunch of countries with far better economies!  Yeah -- he's got the nuclear card -- but he can't play it!!

What would NATO gain from escalating the conflict and going chest to chest with Putin. Maybe hed back down, maybe he does something stupid, and when he does something stupid it could cost a lot more lives. No one has ever gotten sick from swallowing their pride. 

[Dreadnought 8,226]

4 hours ago, LexusInfernus said:

What would NATO gain from escalating the conflict and going chest to chest with Putin. Maybe hed back down, maybe he does something stupid, and when he does something stupid it could cost a lot more lives. No one has ever gotten sick from swallowing their pride. 

HA !!  Tell that to what used to be Czechoslovakia in 1938!

And NATO gains by forcing Putin to tuck his tail and go home.  Once he's had to do that he will quite acting like the schoolyard bully.  The only reason he talks big is because "talk is cheap"!  He can say whatever he wants if he does not fear retaliation by NATO.  If he gets too close to actual conflict with NATO -- he will back down.  He gains nothing by going to war -- and he loses his very lucrative oligarchic crime ring.

If Europe wants peace and prosperity, they will first have to show Putin exactly where he sits at the table.  That cannot be be accomplished by swallowing your pride and trying to ignore the trouble-maker.  He can easily be put in his place without starting a war.

I say it's time the Europeans put on the "battledress gear" and tell him he can have some of that if he wants it.  The news from Moscow will suddenly get very bland.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

The final blow to good ol' Vlad would be an offer to the Ukraine to join NATO, which they would do in a second.  How's that for chest to chest?  Tanks for the memory.

[LexusInfernus 908]

6 hours ago, Dreadnought said:

HA !!  Tell that to what used to be Czechoslovakia in 1938!

And NATO gains by forcing Putin to tuck his tail and go home.  Once he's had to do that he will quite acting like the schoolyard bully.  The only reason he talks big is because "talk is cheap"!  He can say whatever he wants if he does not fear retaliation by NATO.  If he gets too close to actual conflict with NATO -- he will back down.  He gains nothing by going to war -- and he loses his very lucrative oligarchic crime ring.

If Europe wants peace and prosperity, they will first have to show Putin exactly where he sits at the table.  That cannot be be accomplished by swallowing your pride and trying to ignore the trouble-maker.  He can easily be put in his place without starting a war.

I say it's time the Europeans put on the "battledress gear" and tell him he can have some of that if he wants it.  The news from Moscow will suddenly get very bland.

Comparisons to Hitler will require a bit more evidence that the situation is similar. Because in this case it clearly isn't similar. Putin isn't trying to annex Turkey, nor is annexing Turkey feasible. And on a side note, what do you think would have happened if the Allies called Hitlers bluff in 1938? You think he would have backed down? The British and French were even less prepared for war in 1938 than they were in 1939 or 1940. Hitlers end goal was always to start a war at some point and he fully expected it to be in 1938. Nothing would have been different except the starting date of WW2 in Europe. 

And no, we won't gain anything if we tell Putin to back off. Putin isn't doing it for us, hes doing it for his voter base, he is not gonna listen. In fact, ignoring us will only make him more popular in Russia, because it makes him look like the strong leader who stands up to the imperialist bullies from the West. Besides, we got nothing to back up our words. He knows we aren't going to attack him, the worst we can do to him is strangle his economy, but that has never convinced an autocratic leader to step down or tone down the rhetoric. Still, if we were to do as you say, pretend we are preparing for war with him, it will give him ample of excuses to step up his own military game. So instead of making the situation safer, we only made it more explosive. 

Generally, tough talk without a credible threat of force to back up the talk doesn't impress anyone, while tough talk with a credible threat of force is far more likely to worsen the situation.