World Affairs

[LexusInfernus 908]

21 hours ago, MissVanleider said:

One of the rebel groups said to be fighting effectively against both Assad forces and IS forces seems to be the Kudish PKK. They are (naturally) communists.

So along with  moderate thawing of western-Iranian relations in recent times we see western attitudes have gone from 'anti-communist, anti Shia, pro-Sunni' to potentially "Pro-Shia, pro-communist, anti Sunni" in the space of 30 years. The reason for this is clearly self interest, the west just needs a more coherent plan, but then there is no doubt a mirror image of this discussion on a Russian language forum somewhere.

The PKK is a militia that operates mainly in Turkey. Its the YPG that fights in Syria. They are not the same thing. 

Also, the West has never been pro or anti Shia or Sunni. We don't care about the religious background in conflicts, we pick side on more 'realist' terms. 

17 hours ago, A Nonny Moose said:

They may be communist, but if the Turks had their preferences entirely Turkey would be fascist.  Remember, they were part of the Axis powers in 1939 and definitely on the wrong side in WW I. 

Dafuq are you talking about? Turks being Fascists? Yeah no, thats complete nonsense. Lets keep the sweeping generalizations of what 80 million would prefer as political system based on what they did back in the 40's at home shall we? 

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

NK seems to have lost a submarine.

Or maybe they've developed a caterpillar drive .  Since both the U.S. and the South Koreans have task forces in the area, I don't suppose they could offer to help??

[Dreadnought 8,226]

3 hours ago, A Nonny Moose said:

NK seems to have lost a submarine.

Or maybe they've developed a caterpillar drive .  Since both the U.S. and the South Koreans have task forces in the area, I don't suppose they could offer to help??

The thought occurs to me -- that may be how the submarine got to be missing. 

I do hope the condition is nothing temporary !! 

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

The only person I can think of that might deserve the terror and horror of being in a sunken submarine is the current Great Leader.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

Putin has ordered a Russian troop withdrawal from Syria.

He's either out of cash -- or they ran out of anti-Assad targets.

OR -- MAYBE -- they found that missing NK submarine out in the desert !!

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Wonder of wonders, the truce in Syria seems to be holding.  I hope some hot head doesn't kick all this nonsense off again.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

It's not done yet -- !

Assad hasn't beaten them -- and the Rebels haven't given up.

Just a time-out.  We'll see how long the "half-time" show lasts.

[Odainsaker 2,133]

So, now what should we make of all that previously widespread tough talk about how Putin was going to finally put down ISIS in place of wishy-washy weakling Obama?  Have Raqqa, Palmyra, and Mosul been liberated by little green men yet?

[matias93 7,535]

Some wonks say that Putin is retiring because his only objectives were to restore a slighly favourable statu quo, protect the mediterranean Russian Navy base and recover inffluence over the Assad regime, that was too close to Iran.

If the syrians keep killing each other by decades, is not Putin's problem now.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

Putin never intended to put down Isis.  From the very first day the only people he bombed were the anti-Assad rebels.  And Isis is a thorn in the side of the US.  Putin believes the old line attributed to Napoleon.  "If your enemies are killing each other -- don't interfere."

Bang on target, Matias!  Putin has achieved all his objectives in Syria.  The Syrians are only important to haul away the garbage from the Russian bases !

Let's see if Isis has enough grit to attack Russian bases or supply convoys.  I don't think so.  If I remember right, they were once on Assad's payroll.

And let's see how long it takes the fighting to flare up in the Ukraine.

[LexusInfernus 908]

11 hours ago, Dreadnought said:

Let's see if Isis has enough grit to attack Russian bases or supply convoys.  I don't think so.  If I remember right, they were once on Assad's payroll.

You mean Saddam's payroll. Assad merely provided them with shelter so he could use them as leverage for more support from the West. 

[Dreadnought 8,226]

Before anyone gets all excited about a Russian withdrawal, it should be noted that Putin has only authorized the pull-out of the MAIN force -- as he called it.

Russian naval forces and base security detachments remain in place -- as does sufficient Russian air power to protect them.  That remaining air power can be projected at any time into offensive strikes if he sees fit to do so.  To paraphrase -- A man with one warplane is rich in a land where there are none.

Also -- by making a big public show of withdrawing his force, he can come home and stage victory celebrations (goes down well with the peasants).  And the reduction of 30 aircraft, the necessary munitions, and their support crews -- will ease his budget problems.

By pulling out, Putin can claim the moral high ground and tell the Western powers that since he pulled out -- they should keep out of the situation as well.

As chess games go, Vlad has played this one well.

But it also means that Isis will continue to have sanctuary in Syria even if they are run out of Iraq.

As far as who's payroll Isis is on -- I'm sure Assad has loaned them a few bullets and canned goods from time to time.  And Isis is just as happy to take over Rebel-held territory.  It's a symbiotic relationship.

[Sabretooth78 808]

2 hours ago, Dreadnought said:

As far as who's payroll Isis is on -- I'm sure Assad has loaned them a few bullets and canned goods from time to time.  And Isis is just as happy to take over Rebel-held territory.  It's a symbiotic relationship.

Not unlikely, though I think the majority is coming from wealthy private donors on the Arabian peninsula.  And if they aren't still providing donations, I'm sure the startup capital from the CIA hasn't hurt, either.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

P-QB4+

Seems Mr. Putin is a better chess player than some might prefer.  He is keeping his air power, the air bases and his fleet in the area.  I doubt he can really give up access to what amounts to a bordering area.

I wonder who is really behind the unrest in Turkey these days?  Is the external agitprop organization really out of business, Mr. Putin?  Don't forget who has the cork in the Black Sea.

[LexusInfernus 908]

17 hours ago, Sabretooth78 said:

Not unlikely, though I think the majority is coming from wealthy private donors on the Arabian peninsula.  And if they aren't still providing donations, I'm sure the startup capital from the CIA hasn't hurt, either.

Again, the CIA has never paid IS or any of its predecessors. This ridiculous myth should just stop. 

Also, no, IS doesn´t get a lot of money from wealthy Saudi donors. Aside from the fact that the Saudis don´t like IS much, its also pretty difficult to donate money to a terrorist group that currently has the attention of nearly every intelligence agency on the planet. Donating money is a sure way to tell those intelligence agencies you are supporting terrorism. Besides, they have most of the channels through which to donate money cut off. I´m sure it still happens, but donations form only a tiny fraction of IS´s income. 

IS is one of the financially most successful terrorist organizations ever. They are rich and for the most part they collect their own revenue and are not dependent on anyone else. They get their money from trafficking oil, ancient Syrian artifacts robbed from those archaeological dig sites and museums they looted, they loot banks every time they capture a new one, they make money of human trafficking and selling people into slavery and they also collect ´taxes´ from citizens and business owners in IS controlled territory in the same way the maffia collects protection money. 

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

IS source of funds seems to be the sale of antiquities and oil on the black market.  The sooner these outlets can be plugged, the better.  Too bad there isn't a way to tag these products so they can be identified when they surface.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

On a separate topic, here is a BBC Moscow think piece on the Russian pullout

Have the Russians actually caused steps toward the peace process?  If so, mark one up for Vlad.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

Let's not get carried away --

Vlad is hardly headed for Sainthood! 

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Don't be too hard on poor Vlad.  His boyars aren't trustworthy and he is doing his best to avoid the silk neck kerchief.  In the end, he'll probably suffer the fate of many of the tsars.  I sometimes think that Stalin's paranoia was justified.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

NOTHING can justify Stalin.

His particular brand of barbarity stems from the school of "Do unto others -- FIRST!" 

He was absolutely certain other people were just as capable of committing the same acts of barbarism -- he just preferred to be at the "top of the food chain".

Putin is just as ruthless -- he's just more discrete.  Even if his denials are not plausible -- he makes sure he leaves no trail of bread crumbs (or smoking cartridge casings).

My guess is that Vlad IV will go out from a fatal stroke -- very similar to the one that got Stalin.

[LexusInfernus 908]

Putin isn't nearly as ruthless as Stalin was, thank god. I mean seriously, Stalin was just random in his application of state terror. Literally anyone could end up on a death list for no real reason. And with Stalin, you either got shot or send to Siberia. There was nothing in between. 

Putin is a lot more select in who he crushes and he generally saves it for people who either get in his way or massively screw up. And if you screw up, well you maybe lose your job, you don't end up dead. Also, Putin has exhibited signs of loyalty to the people he likes and trusts. As long as you don't do anything to mess up that loyalty, being friends with Putin is pretty profitable. 

That all said, he is a shrewd operator who knows how to keep his opponents off balance. Thats his real strength, never letting his enemies know what he will do next. 

As for the threat of the 'boyars' (I assume that means oligarch) and the threat they pose to Putin. Well, read up your Russian history. Being a boyar was a pretty unsafe position a lot of the time. The Russian Tsars discovered the usefulness of having a secret police completely loyal to them very early on. The current oligarchs haven't forgotten what happened to their colleagues that stepped out of line and displeased Putin. 

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Yep, that's a pretty good summary.  The Boyars or Nobles were (are?) a treacherous bunch who lived on the edge of death but would murder the tsar at the drop of a hat, given a chance so that one of their number could succeed to the throne.  The history of royal houses in Russia is one of intrigue, suspicion and murder in all directions.  If you didn't have a loyal secret police you'd last quick.

Now, the U.S. has done something they've only ever done once before in recent history.  They've declared IS as genocidal.  This after a unanimous vote in the House of Representatives.  I don't think there is any way to argue against it unless all the news outlets have engaged in a monstrous conspiracy.

If the Khalif is ever captured, there will be a circus in the ICC or maybe even a special tribunal a la Nuremberg.  It will include any of their leaders that were caught as well.  If the Shi'a do the catching, there may be nothing left to prosecute.  I am sure the Iranians would love to participate as judge, jury and executioner.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

Leave the Tribunal stuff to The Hague.

At least the Dutch deal from the top of the deck.

[LexusInfernus 908]

13 hours ago, A Nonny Moose said:

Yep, that's a pretty good summary.  The Boyars or Nobles were (are?) a treacherous bunch who lived on the edge of death but would murder the tsar at the drop of a hat, given a chance so that one of their number could succeed to the throne.  The history of royal houses in Russia is one of intrigue, suspicion and murder in all directions.  If you didn't have a loyal secret police you'd last quick.

Hardly. A Russian tsar had much more to fear from his family than from that bunch of nobles with silly hats. Their influence on Russian policy was much more that of trying to control things from behind the scenes. And that only lasted up until the reign of Ivan the Terrible, after which their powers were greatly diminished (not to mention the fact that Ivan IV instituted a great purge of the Boyars).  

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Syria: Syrian army with Russian Air Force assistance reclaim Palmyra.

Without the Russian air support this would not have been possible.  Assad seems to be taking back his territory.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

Now -- Putin has pledged financial support to re-construct the destroyed tombs and temples.

I can't stand the thought of Putin -- but I have to admit, he's at the top of his game.

He's playing all the Aces in a game the US can't play because Assad is sitting at the table.

Nothing like putting yourself "behind the 8-ball" while watching the other guy "run the table"!!

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

This whole thing is like elephants making love.  There is a lot of noise and action, then nothing for months and months.  Eventually you get a baby elephant.  I think in this case the baby will be called Kurdistan.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

WHAT -- !! ??

YOU MEAN -- ??

PUTIN AND CLOSE FRIENDS ARE LINKED TO A HUGE (2 BILLION $$$ +++) OFF-SHORE ACCOUNT IN PANAMA -- FULL OF EMBEZZLED MONEY -- AND LOANS BORROWED FROM STATE BANKS THAT HAVE NEVER BEEN REPAID -- AND THAT NO ONE HAS EVER BEEN PROSECUTED FOR NOT PAYING BACK ??  AND ASSETS CONFISCATED FROM POLITICAL ENEMIES !!  ??

Well -- as Claude Rains once said --

"I am shocked -- shocked to find out there's gambling going on here!!! "

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Thanks for the belly laugh of the day.  The quote is from Casablanca which happens to be one of the best motion pictures of all time.

[Dreadnought 8,226]

46 minutes ago, A Nonny Moose said:

Thanks for the belly laugh of the day.  The quote is from Casablanca which happens to be one of the best motion pictures of all time.

THE BEST MOTION PICTURE OF ALL TIME !!