American dominance to end by 2025 - US report

[Aontan 0]

American dominance to end by 2025 - US report

Fri, Nov 21, 2008

US economic and political clout will decline over the next two decades, according to a new report from the US's leading intelligence agency.

The National Intelligence Council report, Global Trends 2025, also said the financial crisis on Wall Street is just the first phase of a global economic reordering, and the world will be more dangerous, with food and water scarce and advanced weapons plentiful.

The US dollar's role as the world's major currency would weaken to become a "first among equals," the report said.

The outlook is intended to inform US president-elect Barack Obama of factors that will influence global events. It is based on a year-long global survey of experts and trends by US intelligence analysts.

"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," said the report, which was more pessimistic about US influence and the potential for conflict than the last outlook for 2020.

Russia's potential was less certain, depending on its energy wealth and internal investment, while Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen gaining power.

A world with multiple power centres has been less stable than one with a single or two rival superpowers, and there was a growing potential for conflict, the report said.

Global warming will be felt, and water, food and energy constraints may fuel conflict over resources.

"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries," the report said.

"Types of conflict we have not seen for a while - such as over resources - could reemerge," it forecast.

Global wealth was seen shifting from the developed West to the energy-rich Gulf States and Russia, and to Asia, the rising centre of manufacturing and some service industries.

Global rich-poor disparities would grow, leaving Africa vulnerable to increased instability.

A reordering of the world financial system was happening faster than the report's authors envisioned, Thomas Fingar, chairman of the intelligence council, said. Last weekend's Group of 20 summit of advanced and major developing countries in Washington showed work had begun, Mr Fingar added.

A shift away from an oil-based energy system will be under way or complete by 2025. Better renewable technologies such as solar and wind power offer the best opportunity for a quick and low-cost transition, the report said.

There was a greater, but still small, risk of nuclear attack, based on spreading technologies and the weakening of international nonproliferation systems.

Mr Fingar said harmful outcomes were not inevitable. "It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, [or] in some cases [the] working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," Mr Fingar told reporters. "We could have a better world in 2025."

China and India, following a "state capitalism" economic model, were likely to join the United States atop a multipolar world and compete for influence, the report said.

If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, Mr Fingar said, that could set off an arms race in the Middle East, which is considered in the report as an "arc of instability".

The risk that militant groups would use biological weapons was greater than the risk of nuclear terrorism, the report said.

The appeal of terrorism could decline over the next two decades, particularly if Middle Eastern countries provide productive education and opportunities for their young people, the report predicted. But with a growing population, the pool of potential terrorism recruits is likely to be larger, and access to dangerous weapons will rise.

Reuters

© 2008 irishtimes.com

quote>

Very interesting report, albeit being pretty negative...

The entire document can be downloaded here.

edit: Try your best not to let this become another anti-American thread.

[saltandsauce 0]

i don't think you could put a date on it or a year but well, if the USA does get stepped over, it will experience what it did to us in the 1940s and 50s when the pound sterling was the world curency instead of the US dollar

[Boggy1 45]

This is probably inevitable. The dollar has been weakening, US world influence is weakening, the economy is shifting to the rising economies in the East such as India and China, and some down South like Brazil.

I quite liked how British politician Tony Benn put it, in a public debate with John Bolton:

You're a declining empire, as we were, and you'll learn the truth.

[Duke87 1,070]

Fun fact: no major power in the history of the planet has stayed a major power forever. What goes up must come down. And that includes us.

So when a report says that in the future America will not be dominant, I roll my eyes at it. Really, you needed to have experts look into the matter to realize that?

Typical bureaucracy. Needs a study to figure out the obvious and a report to state it.

[diablo_del_bano 3]

I don't think this means that the future is bleak for the US. I mean, look at the EU.

[Muck308 55]

Good point, Duke. My dad has been reminding me of this inevitable fact since I was very young. But the U.S. is still a great nation, and will remain a great nation, especially when defined by its people instead of by its govrenment and how they choose to influence the global community.

What I wonder is whether or not China is capable of supporting itself, let alone being a world power. Sure they are getting richer everyday, and money brings power, or at least clout (initially) but do they have the fortitude to lead the world? Right now they remind me of Japan in the fifties. They are currently churning out low quality goods at cheap prices. But will they be able to make the shift to competent technology and such as they grow in strength? I think the ultimate demise of our current way of life will be to blame on China. A welcomed occurance, b/c our current way of life is destructive. Consumption rates are too high, and China's population only accelerates their depletion. And their depletion is neccessary, b/c we won't find useful alternatives until the last minute. We are human beings and like it or not, we procrastinate and outsource.

The way I see it the U.S. did all it could do for the world a long time ago... and it did a lot. But over time, good intentions have become corrupted. It started with other nations assuming the U.S. couldn't even mobilize an army overseas, then to the U.S. saving the world from certain damnation (along with the allies of course), on to less capable nations ASKING for aid, to less capable nations getting "aid" without asking for it, to policing the world, and now here we are. As an American, I think it all played out a little sooner than I originally thought it would, but this is the world we live in. The U.S. gets itself into messes for the sake of it's own advancement and security, but ALSO b/c we as a nation don't have a choice. We are the world's superpower today, which means today we have to have our hands in everything, like it or not. I am more than ready for other nations to take up the riens... or is it reins? And yes. I know what that means. Anyway, I find it interesting that the article states that with 1 superpower the world as a whole is safer than with several... makes sense, but I still don't trust Russia... ahem soviets ahem.

[balkair 6]

Well the soviets were more *sincere* than the Americans. American governments were always "ah, we'll give u this, we'll give you that" and then gave nothing. At least that was the case with Greece - my home country. Also, America would never come to "aid" someone if they didnt gain something out of it (like Iraq - they said it was for Democracy - yeah right. Its something called "oil"), and that goes for every nation, not just the US.

Also - whats wrong with the EU? The EU has some of the worlds greatest economies (Germany, UK etc). And it was not affected by the global economic crisis as early as the US - in fact, Greece has still not been affected. So i dont get what you mean by "look at the EU"...

[Muck308 55]

I drink your milkshake! That's our govrenment's motto. But you won't see me rockin' a Canadian flag on my suitcase when I go abroad.

Stars and Stripes forever!!!

[Jazzmaster 716]

I do think we will fall from being the strongest power in the world.

I don't think we'll fall apart entirely.

[balkair 6]

Well the US will fall from being THE superpower, thats for sure. But then no, the US wont fall apart entirely, no. They just wont be THAT strong economically and politically...

[edman2012 33]

This is stupid.  You can't predict th future in this situation.  That will happen if the U.S. continues through its troubles which isn't likely.  How did we get through the Great Depression? WE IMPROVED FROM IT!!!  How are you going to say this will happen?  Besides, we can't predict the future like that.

How will Iran improve? Nuclear power? NO!  You need more than that.  Only China sounds resonable.

Last thing.  Don't forget that the whole world is struggling, not just the U.S.  Does this change your views?

[lgbrave4life 1]

I am so tired of most of the world always saying that America is never generous and is sefish with all the money we have (or with the pathetic amount we have left)and that we only help when it benefits us. Well that is not true. For example, when the tsunami happened in 2004, we immediately sent aid over to Indonesia and Thailand. How would that of benefitted us? Most of them were very ungrateful to have our aid and told us to get out. Even now in Iraq, were continuously building up their infastructure and building health and educational facilities left and right.

[ilikehotdogsalot 311]

Awesome.

[tothe175854thpower 0]

The United States won't be as powerful as it is now, but the fact is that the United States right now is the third most populous country in the world and has the most powerful military. I don't see those things changing in 15 years, and even though China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and Brazil are becoming more powerful nations, they have a huge number of people who are still poor and suffering. Some of these countries, such as China, do horrible in human rights, and a powerful nation should be one which at least allows their people to protest the government. The European Union has become a real economic power, but they aren't as powerful militarily because of the EU not extending its jurisdiction to military concerns. Many of those countries still must rely on the United States for help in military due to their militaries not being strong enough to handle cases alone. I think it's obvious that other countries will start to catch up to the United States, but American dominance won't end in 15 years unless there's some kind of world revolution.

[Muck308 55]

Originally posted by: edman2012   Don't forget that the whole world is struggling, not just the U.S.  Does this change your views?quote>

 

Of course I know that... and that type of ignorance wouldn't be as common(especially in America) if the U.S. was not THE superpower. 

And I know we cannot predict the future, but it would be foolish to not hypothesize.

[lgbrave4life 1]

Good point tothe175854thpower, absolutly 100% correct

[threeswept 12]

Originally posted by: Duke87 Fun fact: no major power in the history of the planet has stayed a major power forever. What goes up must come down. And that includes us.

So when a report says that in the future America will not be dominant, I roll my eyes at it. Really, you needed to have experts look into the matter to realize that?

Typical bureaucracy. Needs a study to figure out the obvious and a report to state it. quote>

 

Couldn't agree more. It's inevitable and even more acceptable in an ever-changing, technological world that we have today. However, China has quite a lengthy history of being the most powerful at many points in history.

[MrCinatit 30]

I am one who does think the U.S. no longer being a super power is inevitable...but one of the keys will be how the U.S. will react, how other countries (especially those such as China who will become larger super powers) will react and treat us, and how we will in turn react to that.

[panthersimcity4 162]

Every empire declines... history has shown that. The U.S, even if certain people are charitable, is mostly built by the small percentage of ridiculously wealthy indivuduals who just can't get enough of what they already have (I believe the term is "glutton")

I think the two other "superpowers" in the world that could surpass the US would be China or Russia, or maybe the whole EU will be a superpower of itself.

[TV-VCR 15]

I've seen this coming for a while now. Like they say, nothing lasts forever.

The next "world superpower" could be one of many countries I'm leaning towards China to be honest. If they iron out a lot of their kinks in the next 15 years, they could very well be the next leading nation.

[underwearman2007 0]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[patriots_1228 51]

US, and west, will slip, but not very far. We may enter a situation where we play second fiddle to russia, china, and the east for a while, but, i don't see china becoming a threat as they have much bigger problems then us coming up, trying to provide for 1 billion people. With oil declining, the middle east and russia will probably as well...

Actually, who am I kidding, the whole world pretty much is in decline. We're screwed lol.

[GreekMan 246]

I don't know why America is considered an empire. We don't rule over any other countries like the Brits used to do.

Maybe Obama could do something. You never know, he could make this nation better. Who knows?

Also WHY does everyone hate us? We saved the world from the Germans and the Japanese and we somehow brough down the Russians

We should be loved!!!!!!

[Codythemonkey 0]

What goes up must come down..what you expect it to stay up forever? I love the country I live in and I'm not moving any where any time soon. I'm actually glad this has happened. Yea being on the top can feel good but things happened obviously that led us to our downfall. Just a slow down...not like we'll be taken over tomorrow. The next superpower IMO would either be China, Russia, or the EU.

[Meg 368]

Originally posted by: GreekMan

Also WHY does everyone hate us? quote>

Because we don't realize, or understand, things like this:

If the world were a village of 1,000 people ...

Dona Meadows

If the world were a village of 1,000 people, it would include:

·

  584 Asians

·  124 Africans

·  95 East and West Europeans

·  84 Latin Americans

·  55 Soviets (including for the moment Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians and other national groups)

·  52 North Americans

·  6 Australians and New Zealanders

The people of the village have considerable difficulty in communicating:

·

  165 people speak Mandarin

·  86 English

·  83 Hindi/Urdu

·  64 Spanish

·  58 Russian

·  37 Arabic

That list accounts for the mother tongues of only half the villagers.  The other half speak (in descending order of frequency) Bengali, Portuguese, Indonesian, Japanese, German, French and 200 other languages.

In this village of 1,000 there are:

·

  329 Christians (among them 187 Catholics, 84 Protestants, 31 Orthodox)

·  178 Moslems

·  167 "non-religious"

·  l32 Hindus

·  60 Buddhists

·  45 atheists

·  3 Jews

·  86 all other religions

• One-third (330) of the 1,000 people in the world village are children and only 60 are over the age of 65. Half the children are immunized against preventable infectious diseases such as measles and polio.

   

• Just under half of the married women in the village have access to and use modern contraceptives.

   

   

• This year 28 babies will be born. Ten people will die, 3 of them for lack of food, 1 from cancer, 2 of the deaths are of babies born within the year.  One person of the 1,000 is infected with the HIV virus; that person most likely has not yet developed a full-blown case of AIDS.

   

• With the 28 births and 10 deaths, the population of the village next year will be 1,018.
• In this 1,000-person community, 200 people receive 75 percent of the income; another 200 receive only 2 percent of the income.

   

• Only 70 people of the 1,000 own an automobile (although some of the 70 own more than one automobile).
• About one-third have access to clean, safe drinking water.

   

   

• Of the 670 adults in the village, half are illiterate.

The village has six acres of land per person, 6,000 acres in all, of which

·  700 acres are cropland

·  1,400 acres pasture

·  1,900 acres woodland

·  2,000 acres desert, tundra, pavement and other wasteland

·  The woodland is declining rapidly; the wasteland is increasing. The other land categories are roughly stable.

The village allocates 83 percent of its fertilizer to 40 percent of its cropland - that owned by the richest and best-fed 270 people.

Excess fertilizer running off this land causes pollution in lakes and wells.

The remaining 60 percent of the land, with its 17 percent of the fertilizer, produces 28 percent of the food grains and feeds 73 percent of the people.

The average grain yield on that land is one-third the harvest achieved by the richer villagers.

In the village of 1,000 people, there are:

·  5 soldiers

·  7 teachers

·  1 doctor

·  3 refugees driven from home by war or drought

The village has a total budget each year, public and private, of over $3 million - $3,000 per person if it is distributed evenly (which, we have already seen, it isn't).

Of the total $3 million:

·  $181,000 goes to weapons and warfare

·  $159,000 for education

·  $l32,000 for health care

The village has buried beneath it enough explosive power in nuclear weapons to blow itself to smithereens many times over. These weapons are under the control of just 100 of the people. The other 900 people are watching them with deep anxiety, wondering whether they can learn to get along together; and if they do, whether they might set off the weapons anyway through inattention or technical bungling; and, if they ever decide to dismantle the weapons, where in the world village they would dispose of the radioactive materials of which the weapons are made.quote>

[XxlxX 0]

Yes i agree, i dont see how the U.S. is an empire.

Here are just a few reasons why some countries/citizens (not always government) dislike us.

Middle East- It's mostly just the extremist Muslims there that hate us, they declared a holy war on us, a surpringly large number of the governments thare are at least "nuetral" with us.

Europe- I actually dont know how many European countries hate us, but here are some possibilities, jealous (Britain maybe?) In the case of the Germans that still support nazi ideas they may dislike us because of the outcome of WWII

Asia- Also not sure how many of those countries dislike us but some possible reasons, jealous (perhaps they wish they had the wealth or power) Japanese perhaps from the outcome of WWII

Africa- Slavery??? sure it was abolished in the U.S. but it may still be fresh in some of their minds. And South Africa just recently ended apartheid, it wasnt us causing it but it was caused of the white people.

South America- jealous, not really sure

If i accidently missed any major area of the world just put it down as unknown why they dislike us.

[XxlxX 0]

Originally posted by: Duke87 Fun fact: no major power in the history of the planet has stayed a major power forever. What goes up must come down. And that includes us.

So when a report says that in the future America will not be dominant, I roll my eyes at it. Really, you needed to have experts look into the matter to realize that?

Typical bureaucracy. Needs a study to figure out the obvious and a report to state it. quote>

 

LOL i completely agree.  simple explanations from the public just arent good enough need to come up with some huge report on it.

[fukuda 351]

Now, losing entire dominance of the world doesn't mean losing everything, look at the old european empires

Here are just a few reasons why some countries/citizens (not always government) dislike us.

Middle East- It's mostly just the extremist Muslims there that hate us, they declared a holy war on us, a surpringly large number of the governments thare are at least "nuetral" with us.

Europe- I actually dont know how many European countries hate us, but here are some possibilities, jealous (Britain maybe?) In the case of the Germans that still support nazi ideas they may dislike us because of the outcome of WWII

Asia- Also not sure how many of those countries dislike us but some possible reasons, jealous (perhaps they wish they had the wealth or power) Japanese perhaps from the outcome of WWII

Africa- Slavery??? sure it was abolished in the U.S. but it may still be fresh in some of their minds. And South Africa just recently ended apartheid, it wasnt us causing it but it was caused of the white people.

South America- jealous, not really sure

If i accidently missed any major area of the world just put it down as unknown why they dislike us. quote>

Oh my.... Please stop doing that kind of "deductions" or they'll  we'll have reasons to hate you...

[patriots_1228 51]

I hate to break it to you guys...British people are not jealous of us. Most Asians are not jealous of you.

Its quite simply, the way Americans behave that irk most of the world. Ski Geeks example of how much we possess and how much we waste is part of it, and the other part is the stupid things we say. Sorry, we did not save the world from Germany, Russia, or Japan. It was a group effort. Sorry, noone is really jealous of us right now, in fact, im more jealous of other nations at this point.

[Duke87 1,070]

Originally posted by: SkiGeek

Originally posted by: GreekMan

Also WHY does everyone hate us? quote>

Because we don't realize, or understand, things like thisquote>

Americans are notorious for being quite ignorant of the situation outside of our country. Having a huge country where most of the population lives quite far from an international border does tend to breed that sort of thing.

I myself have never set foot outside of this country. Ever. For someone my age in Europe that would probably be unheard of.

However, I have traveled far enough from home that a European couldn't travel that far without crossing any borders.

At the same time, I get the sense that there are things about America that people from other parts of the world fail to grasp. The matter of scale is one thing. I seem to recall a conversation once where someone from Denmark was speaking quite favorably of... something or other that the Danish government does. Forget what. It's not important. But he was wondering why in the hell we couldn't implement the same policy here in America.

Well, Denmark is a country of 5.5 million people and 16640 square miles. The US is a country of nearly 308 million people and 3.8 million square miles.

By comparison, the land area of Denmark would fit comfortably within the borders of 41 of the 50 US states. West Virginia and Maine are larger than it. It also has less population than 20 of those 50 states. There are more people on Long Island then there are in Denmark.

Point being, when you take something that works great and then increase the number of people you have to do it with fifty times and the area you have to do it over 225 times, it might not work so well anymore.

It's this difference in scale which is by far the most misunderstood aspect of America by foreigners. People from smaller countries tend to properly grasp neither its existence nor its implications.