Driverless motor vehicles -- At last!

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Hear the beat of a new drummer.

 

OK, the monied interests will now have a food fight over this, but in the end it can't happen soon enough to suit me.  Driving on today's roads is an exercise in stress we don't need any more.

 

Not only must this apply to all private vehicles, but also to all commercial vehicles as well.  No more large pileups on the highways caused by sleepy transport drivers.

[Duke87 1,070]

 

it's only a matter of years, not decades.

 

Has the author of this article been paying any attention to what Google and its driverless car have actually been up to? It's done far more than has ever been done before, certainly, but the technology is nowhere near ready to be deployed outside of a controlled environment. Some critical limitations of Google's current car:

- it only knows how to follow roads in their normal configuration. If it encounters a construction zone the driver has to take over

- it cannot read signs. It only knows where stop signs and traffic lights are based on prerecorded GPS data. If a new stop sign is installed the Google car will run it because it doesn't know it exists. If a formerly two way street is changed to one way, the google car might drive the wrong way down it. Google has been extremely vigilant about keeping their data accurate and up to date in the small area where their car operates but cannot possibly do so for the whole country.

- it can only drive on clear roads. Any snow, ice, or rain, and the autopilot doesn't work.

 

So sorry, no, it is decades, not years, before we see cars on the roads outright driving themselves. As giddy as the idea may make some people, we aren't nearly as close to it being reality as some would like to believe.

 

 

And you know what? That is fine by me. I enjoy driving and find being a passenger to be mind-numbing. I have zero desire to ever have a self-driving car.

[Compdude787 916]

I think it would be cool and all to have a self-driving car, but it really needs to be able to read signs. Even though road signs in America are of a pretty standard design, there are some slight differences even between municipalities that would make this different. It is difficult to survey and keep up to date every stop sign, speed limit, or any change in lane configuration (like with construction). Until this is figured out, self-driving cars won't be all that practical.

[sneakeypete 16]

Duke summed it up well.

Its probably also important to note that companies like Google may not be the actual way that the technology is adopted over the coming decades. Despite your thoughts, the big car companies don't really have a problem with this (after all, they still sell the cars) and it will probably be them who, slowly and surely, add more and more autonomous features to cars. I'm pretty sure, for example, Mercedes is working on technology that can drive your car on highways in clear weather, of course you still have to be behind the wheel etc, but it will be gradual things like that that will bring around truly self driving cars, but it will take time.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

I agree that Google is not the company to be in this business.  As for street signs, etc.  a simple blue-tooth box on each one solves this problem.  The technology for this is quite long in the tooth and it only becomes a matter of political will, which will be a stiff fight until someone hits the municipal governments over the head with a two by four.

 

Universal signal systems for some traffic has been in place for some time now.  If you don't think so, take a look at the little green booklet called "International Regulations for the Avoidance of Collisions at Sea" (a.k.a. Collision regulations).  This is an international standard and has been used by ocean and lake shipping for several decades.  It wouldn't be really difficult to draft a similar document for automobile traffic for cars and trucks that were robotically controlled.  The main difference is that there is more latitude in the sea lanes than on a paved road.  I am not certain because I am not an aircraft pilot, but there must be a similar set of regulations in force as well.

 

Some cars you can buy now have all-around sensor systems that sense nearby objects, so it becomes a matter of GPS mapping, which is already a fact for most heavily populated areas now.  A rural mapping system may be needed, but this is only a matter of time, especially since charts (road maps) already exist for most of the world.  Surely the cars can include cheap Doppler radar systems as well.

 

So, the time to start this up is now, and heavy traffic areas with lots of accidents would be the logical initial venue.  Maybe the insurance industry will get on board with this and give serious discounts for automated vehicles once reliability is proven.  Of course switching off the auto-pilot must remain an option for years to come.

 

When I was younger, I used to enjoy driving as much as the next guy.  However, I don't drive anymore due to a physical disability which is not disqualifying except in my personal opinion.  I am blind in the right eye.  Ever try to backup a vehicle in that situation?  You can't use your mirrors, you are supposed to twist in the seat and use your right-hand vision (of which I have none).  Also, being a one-eyed monster since the late 1980s has also removed my binary vision, so I have no sense of depth.  Makes walking in snow difficult, let alone driving.

 

So, perhaps before I shuffle off this mortal coil, sometime in the next twenty to thirty years, a lot of this will be in place.  I certainly don't expect it overnight, but I don't expect it to go away.  It is an idea whose time has come.

[blade2k5 1,523]

Hear the beat of a new drummer.

 

OK, the monied interests will now have a food fight over this, but in the end it can't happen soon enough to suit me.  Driving on today's roads is an exercise in stress we don't need any more.

 

Not only must this apply to all private vehicles, but also to all commercial vehicles as well.  No more large pileups on the highways caused by sleepy transport drivers.

 

 

It's only stressful to you because you're ancient  and are not 100% sure of your once quick reflexes.  Happens to everyone.  If driving is too stressful, then it's time to stop.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

 

Hear the beat of a new drummer.

 

OK, the monied interests will now have a food fight over this, but in the end it can't happen soon enough to suit me.  Driving on today's roads is an exercise in stress we don't need any more.

 

Not only must this apply to all private vehicles, but also to all commercial vehicles as well.  No more large pileups on the highways caused by sleepy transport drivers.

 

 

It's only stressful to you because you're ancient  and are not 100% sure of your once quick reflexes.  Happens to everyone.  If driving is too stressful, then it's time to stop.

 

I stopped driving when I lost my right eye in the 1980s.  I was living in Toronto at the time, and driving there was always something of a stress considering the traffic and the number of loose nuts holding the steering wheels.

 

"You are old, Father William, the young man said

"And yet you incessantly stand on your head.

"Do you think, at your age, it is wise?"

 

"In my youth, Father William said to his son

"I feared it might injure the brain.  But now that I'm sure I have none

"I do it again, and again."

Lewis Carroll

[blade2k5 1,523]

 

 

Hear the beat of a new drummer.

 

OK, the monied interests will now have a food fight over this, but in the end it can't happen soon enough to suit me.  Driving on today's roads is an exercise in stress we don't need any more.

 

Not only must this apply to all private vehicles, but also to all commercial vehicles as well.  No more large pileups on the highways caused by sleepy transport drivers.

 

 

It's only stressful to you because you're ancient  and are not 100% sure of your once quick reflexes.  Happens to everyone.  If driving is too stressful, then it's time to stop.

 

I stopped driving when I lost my right eye in the 1980s.  I was living in Toronto at the time, and driving there was always something of a stress considering the traffic and the number of loose nuts holding the steering wheels.

 

"You are old, Father William, the young man said

"And yet you incessantly stand on your head.

"Do you think, at your age, it is wise?"

 

"In my youth, Father William said to his son

"I feared it might injure the brain.  But now that I'm sure I have none

"I do it again, and again."

Lewis Carroll

 

 

 

Ouch.  That must throw off you depth perception somewhat.  Sorry to hear that.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

^ The worst of it is trying to back up a vehicle.  You are supposed to twist around and use your right eye.  Mirrors are never enough.  When my wife passed away, I got rid of the family car.  Fortunately there is a reasonable senior's transportation service in this area and I can book it to go practically anywhere on 24 hours notice.  This does lead to a somewhat planned existence, especially considering I live in the boondocks.  Currently they've been a little short of volunteers.  The cost of this is subsidized by the Provincial government and it actually costs me less than owning/insuring a car.

 

One of the regular guys broke his leg recently and is now in the secondary care facility up the street from here a couple of blocks.  That is a fate worse than death.  I've been there a couple of times picking up dressing supplies, and it is not a place I'd like to spend time in.

 

Don't let anyone kid you:  getting old sucks.

[Sabretooth78 808]

The Oatmeal did a good comic about this.  Sums up my thoughts on the matter pretty well.

 

http://theoatmeal.com/blog/google_self_driving_car

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

This oatmeal should be taken in the Scots manner ( with salt instead of sugar ).

[ROFLyoshi 1,760]

I don't know how I feel about a driverless vehicle. As much as I detest other drivers and the absurdly stupid things they can do, I would much rather leave man in charge than a machine. If you don't want to drive take a taxi, or a bus.

What would be interesting is a semi-driverless system to work on main highways where cars could be loaded onto a platform or something and then taken along the highway. This would mean faster speeds, higher capacity (as cars could be bunched closer safely).

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

<snip>

What would be interesting is a semi-driverless system to work on main highways where cars could be loaded onto a platform or something and then taken along the highway. This would mean faster speeds, higher capacity (as cars could be bunched closer safely).

In countries well-serviced by rail, why not have a piggy-back car ferry service similar to a water ferry.  You drive onto a flat car, lock up your car and move to the club car or observation car until you arrive at your destination?  Flat cars could be labelled by destination and put off to a siding at that point for unloading.

[Huston 5,798]

I get it how it has potential to help thousands of those unable to drive normally on roads, but like duke, I'm not really one for this being the de facto mode of travel. I like to drive myself, and to have a car of my own, even if the stats to owning car say that there's no point

 

But it's an intriguing prospect. I'd at least say that this could be something that could serve as an alternative or at least, be a part of public transport system in large cities.

[LexusInfernus 908]

Has the author of this article been paying any attention to what Google and its driverless car have actually been up to? It's done far more than has ever been done before, certainly, but the technology is nowhere near ready to be deployed outside of a controlled environment. Some critical limitations of Google's current car:

- it only knows how to follow roads in their normal configuration. If it encounters a construction zone the driver has to take over

- it cannot read signs. It only knows where stop signs and traffic lights are based on prerecorded GPS data. If a new stop sign is installed the Google car will run it because it doesn't know it exists. If a formerly two way street is changed to one way, the google car might drive the wrong way down it. Google has been extremely vigilant about keeping their data accurate and up to date in the small area where their car operates but cannot possibly do so for the whole country.

- it can only drive on clear roads. Any snow, ice, or rain, and the autopilot doesn't work.

 

So sorry, no, it is decades, not years, before we see cars on the roads outright driving themselves. As giddy as the idea may make some people, we aren't nearly as close to it being reality as some would like to believe.

 

 

And you know what? That is fine by me. I enjoy driving and find being a passenger to be mind-numbing. I have zero desire to ever have a self-driving car.

 

You think it takes decades to figure those things out? Really? 

 

The first two points are a matter of regular updates on driving routes. One would assume that Google and other driverless car companies, as well as government keep track on where signs are placed and where construction results in detours, and they update the navigation system of those cars regularly. Its a non issue. 

 

The second point does require some work, but it does not take decades to figure out how to make a car drive itself in the rain. 10 years ago we didn't even have cars assisting with parking, and in that 10 years we not only got that, but we got cars that can drive themselves under 'normal' conditions. 5 years tops to make them be able to drive in the snow as well. Don't forget, technology advances in a exponential curve, not a straight line. 

[sneakeypete 16]

I think you may be slightly underestimating the amount of effort that is required for this cars. We're talking centimeter accurate mapping of the surrounds. To do this for the whole country, and then to somehow get governments to actually tell you where all the road works are (good luck) is certainly possible but will take a whole heap of resources. Hence my earlier point about it probably being a gradual transition, some of the self driving highway stuff doesn't need that as all it needs to do is follow a line.

 

I do love how with this (and other new tech, say like 3d printing) whenever someone brings up a major problem with it "oh but don't forget technology advances so fast i'm sure someone will figure it out *real* soon!"

the issue is that the majority of work conducted by people so far has been in refining the Laser based systems. However due to the way they interact with light, there is zero way that you can get them to work in rain. Its not a matter of refining them as I understand it, it just won't work, so they'll have to start from scratch with another sensing system presumably. At least all of the control systems can be continuously updated however.

[Huston 5,798]

True point, and that is under the assumption that work on these self-driving cars have mounds of dedicated resources. I'm not too sure there's enough people interested in said technology right now, and in 10 years, that interest and government bureaurcracy might only change a small amount, depending on people's openness to that kind of transporation. Technology may change at a fast pace, but the human social norm and patterns can itself take decades to overcome. So until people become more serious about this, it will indeed take some time before anything significant can even be implemented.

[LexusInfernus 908]

I think you may be slightly underestimating the amount of effort that is required for this cars. We're talking centimeter accurate mapping of the surrounds. To do this for the whole country, and then to somehow get governments to actually tell you where all the road works are (good luck) is certainly possible but will take a whole heap of resources. Hence my earlier point about it probably being a gradual transition, some of the self driving highway stuff doesn't need that as all it needs to do is follow a line.

We have a car that has a satnav build in standard, and it knows exactly where all the current roadsigns are. It also knows when and where there are traffic jams and it will ask us each time if it can reroute us to avoid said traffic jam. The only problem it currently has is indeed that whenever the government builds new roadsigns, or the road layout actually changes because of construction, it isn't updated automatically. We need to manually update the map. The only reason we need to do that, is because our car doesn't have build in wifi or some other form of mobile internet connection. But there is absolutely no reason why it would take 'decades' to figure out how to have our cars communicate with the internet. 

 

 

I do love how with this (and other new tech, say like 3d printing) whenever someone brings up a major problem with it "oh but don't forget technology advances so fast i'm sure someone will figure it out *real* soon!"

 

Its a fact. Every time people say 'its gonna take forever before that technology is actually usuable' they are proven utterly wrong. See how many typewriter companies still exist. And look at the industry behind photo development. Wiped out in just a few years, so fast that non of them were able to adapt in time. 15 years ago the best cellphone was the Nokia 3310, and look what current cellphones can do. They contain more memory and processing power than desktop computers from 15 years ago. 

 

Is the technology ready yet? No, its not ready yet. But will it take decades to make it ready? Hell no, 5 to 10 years max before all cars drive themselves. 

 

 

the issue is that the majority of work conducted by people so far has been in refining the Laser based systems. However due to the way they interact with light, there is zero way that you can get them to work in rain. Its not a matter of refining them as I understand it, it just won't work, so they'll have to start from scratch with another sensing system presumably. At least all of the control systems can be continuously updated however.

 

I'm pretty sure the parking sensors on my car work just fine when its raining. And you only need that type of sensor when driving an obstacle course. On a highway, with other smart cars you don't need lasers, as smart cars communicate with each other over a wireless network. That way they can know each others position without having to measure it with lasers. And they don't need to start from scratch with that, that system already exist and is currently being tested in the Netherlands and probably a bunch of other countries as well. 

 

 

True point, and that is under the assumption that work on these self-driving cars have mounds of dedicated resources. I'm not too sure there's enough people interested in said technology right now, and in 10 years, that interest and government bureaurcracy might only change a small amount, depending on people's openness to that kind of transporation. Technology may change at a fast pace, but the human social norm and patterns can itself take decades to overcome. So until people become more serious about this, it will indeed take some time before anything significant can even be implemented.

You don't have a choice. The switch from typewriters to computers. From normal phones to mobile phones. From film cameras to digital cameras. Non of those changes took decades to implement, they only took 5 years at the most, going from expensive new toy to the new standard. 

 

And almost every car comes equipped with all kinds of sensors these days. You as the consumer do not get the choice anymore if you want those sensors or not, you get just them. And once self driving cars are operational, you think governments are not gonna be interested? Not going to be interested in an upgrade that has the very real potential of reducing traffic accidents and traffic jams significantly? I don't think they will just be interested, I think they will pass regulations that make smart cars mandatory as soon as possible. 

[Huston 5,798]

 

 

True point, and that is under the assumption that work on these self-driving cars have mounds of dedicated resources. I'm not too sure there's enough people interested in said technology right now, and in 10 years, that interest and government bureaurcracy might only change a small amount, depending on people's openness to that kind of transporation. Technology may change at a fast pace, but the human social norm and patterns can itself take decades to overcome. So until people become more serious about this, it will indeed take some time before anything significant can even be implemented.

You don't have a choice. The switch from typewriters to computers. From normal phones to mobile phones. From film cameras to digital cameras. Non of those changes took decades to implement, they only took 5 years at the most, going from expensive new toy to the new standard. 

 

And almost every car comes equipped with all kinds of sensors these days. You as the consumer do not get the choice anymore if you want those sensors or not, you get just them. And once self driving cars are operational, you think governments are not gonna be interested? Not going to be interested in an upgrade that has the very real potential of reducing traffic accidents and traffic jams significantly? I don't think they will just be interested, I think they will pass regulations that make smart cars mandatory as soon as possible. 

 

 

Well, there are some valid points there, but it's still down to consumers. Not everyone is going to embrace this technology with open arms, and a lot of people do tend to enjoy driving their own vehicles (that with the ever present need for people to flaunt their possessions). You can exactly compared cameras, phones and computers that have only existed the last 40 years, to something that has been in societies for the last 100 years, and has been for the most part, a human activity, that at one peopl enjoy. Heaps of teens look forward to these kinds of liberties, and taking that away is going to upset a future generation of people in socitieties that have increasingly made driving cars for the first time and almost a symbolic transition from the years of juvenile living to maturity and lead on to adulthood.

 

In any case, it's going to be a little harder for people to accept automated, mobile transporation from being able to drive a vehicle on your own. It might be better to compare this to people's skepticism of AI technology and robotics to try better efficiencies in commercial sectors and our daily lives. It's not a completely direct comparison, but the skepticism is there, since you're practically leaving your safety to onboard computer system.

[LexusInfernus 908]

Well, there are some valid points there, but it's still down to consumers. Not everyone is going to embrace this technology with open arms, and a lot of people do tend to enjoy driving their own vehicles (that with the ever present need for people to flaunt their possessions). You can exactly compared cameras, phones and computers that have only existed the last 40 years, to something that has been in societies for the last 100 years, and has been for the most part, a human activity, that at one peopl enjoy. Heaps of teens look forward to these kinds of liberties, and taking that away is going to upset a future generation of people in socitieties that have increasingly made driving cars for the first time and almost a symbolic transition from the years of juvenile living to maturity and lead on to adulthood.

In any case, it's going to be a little harder for people to accept automated, mobile transporation from being able to drive a vehicle on your own. It might be better to compare this to people's skepticism of AI technology and robotics to try better efficiencies in commercial sectors and our daily lives. It's not a completely direct comparison, but the skepticism is there, since you're practically leaving your safety to onboard computer system.

 

Do teens enjoy the driving itself, or the increased autonomy and freedom that driving a car brings with it? 

 

But yeah, its fairly possible that driving will become a sort of hobby for a select group of people, done on race tracks. But for daily life, automated cars will become the norm. They are simply safer and more efficient, which means the economic benefits of having a largely automated transport system are so big there wont be a single government willing to pass on that. 

[Huston 5,798]

 

Well, there are some valid points there, but it's still down to consumers. Not everyone is going to embrace this technology with open arms, and a lot of people do tend to enjoy driving their own vehicles (that with the ever present need for people to flaunt their possessions). You can exactly compared cameras, phones and computers that have only existed the last 40 years, to something that has been in societies for the last 100 years, and has been for the most part, a human activity, that at one peopl enjoy. Heaps of teens look forward to these kinds of liberties, and taking that away is going to upset a future generation of people in socitieties that have increasingly made driving cars for the first time and almost a symbolic transition from the years of juvenile living to maturity and lead on to adulthood.

In any case, it's going to be a little harder for people to accept automated, mobile transporation from being able to drive a vehicle on your own. It might be better to compare this to people's skepticism of AI technology and robotics to try better efficiencies in commercial sectors and our daily lives. It's not a completely direct comparison, but the skepticism is there, since you're practically leaving your safety to onboard computer system.

 

Do teens enjoy the driving itself, or the increased autonomy and freedom that driving a car brings with it? 

 

But yeah, its fairly possible that driving will become a sort of hobby for a select group of people, done on race tracks. But for daily life, automated cars will become the norm. They are simply safer and more efficient, which means the economic benefits of having a largely automated transport system are so big there wont be a single government willing to pass on that. 

 

 

Well I'm not myself too keen on that. I'm one of those teens that do enjoy and were looking forward to driving and the freedoms that would eventually come with it . And, most definitely do. Some a little too much (which then leads to those statisitical crashes). But in any case, whether there is government endorsement or not, the weight of people's opinion will still hold true. And that can be the difference between social acceptance of automated transport as the norm, to people remaining conservative about vehicular transport remaining a mostly human activity. Like I said, driving can be enjoyable, and I'd hate for that to be taken away from me in the future. That and the variation on vehicle apperances. I can bet that making automated transport the norm will homogenize designs A little bland for a future if you ask me.

 

I'd probably leave automated transport to the big cities and sizable towns. I'd like for it to still be a human thing, even 100 years from now.