"Kim Jong Il Dead"

[Cobraroll 138]

According to Korean tradition, it's customary for any successor to follow his late predecessor's path for three years before starting to do things in one's own ways. Unless Jong-Un is a rebel of sorts, don't expect changes in the politics until early 2015. That is, unless they piss off the South one time too many and start a war before then.

I also guess that Un's uncle Jang Sung Taek will have a bit more to say these first three years. Respect for the elders is a very important part of Korean (or most Eastern) culture, and Kim is precieved as a youngling (being the youngest brother and all).

In short, though: Don't expect things to change yet. Perhaps later, but not immediately.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

^ "start a war"? It already exists with the South. Never been a peace treaty.

[airman15 4,111]

If anything the so called "treaty" that was put in place in the 1950s(?) was just as effective as a fabric curtain trying to stop a freight train going 100 mph. It didn't stop incidents like shelling and maritime clashes from happening after it was instated.

[Ocram's Razr 963]

I think Kim is the last name.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

I think Kim is the last name.

Yes. The patronymic or family name is Kim. Kim is a pretty common name in Korea, something like Smith or Jones here. Jong-un is the familiar name or "first" name. In oriental countries the patronymic is given first followed by given names.

[Ocram's Razr 963]

I pointed that out because Cobarol called Jong-Un 3 different names. The Kim family are despots but Jong-Un is weaker than Jong-Il.

Seeing as the only difference in names of the 3 generations of leaders is the hyphenated part (Sun,Il, and Un), this might be the equivalent to Sr, Jr, and the III).

[Cobraroll 138]

It's more like the difference between Tom, Dick and Harry Smith. Keep in mind that their names are usually written in Korean characters, and that the hyphen might only be there to give an idea on how it's pronounced after transcription to Latin letters. In many far-Eastern cultures, listing the family name first is the most common way of writing names.

Also keep in mind that there are tons of Kims flying around in the "royal" family of North Korea. Kim Sul-Song, Kim Jong-Nam and Kim Jong-Chul are for example the siblings of Kim Jong-Un. Kim Jong-Il also had two brothers and a sister.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Really starting to sound like the Saud Dynasty in Arabia. It was started sometime in the 1920s, but is smarter than the Kims by a few herds of camels. They have something to sell to the west, and have taken great advantage of it after the war to end all wars.

The Koreans have nothing we want in particular, but the south has turned into a manufacturing and shipping giant, while the north is starving to death in the grip of some now unfashionable ideologues.

  Edited January 2, 2012 by A Nonny Moose  

[Barbarossa 51]

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  Edited September 9, 2012 by Barbarossa  

[Odainsaker 2,134]

The Koreans have nothing we want in particular, but the south has turned into a manufacturing and shipping giant, while the north is starving to death in the grip of some now unfashionable ideologues.

Worse is that the North could itself also be an economic powerhouse, as it both straddles the land route between South Korea and Manchuria and the direct route between Manchuria and Japan. Manchuria in China's northeast is a treasure trove of industrial raw materials and fuels, leading first to military occupation by a resource-hungry Imperial Japan and later to focused industrial mega-development under the People's Republic of China. As misbegotten as Japan's empire was, they did profit enormously from the forced interconnectedness of the region. With North Korea now so isolationist, it along with the harsh terrain of the Russian Far East have long acted as a barrier locking in North East China and its resources away from the most developed economies in the region. Manchuria still did well under China's central planning as the focal point of state-subsidized heavy industry, but now that China has loosened its controls and cast off the giant state industries into a freer market, North East china has been struggling to meet its lagging potential as its international regional connections have been physically barricaded by a pariah state that when seen from space at night actually creates a black void amid its neighbors' nightlights. Unlike China's booming coastal cities, North East China is geographically tucked into a far corner, hemmed in by Mongolia, Siberia, and North Korea, and everything today has to be shipped the long way around the Korean Peninsula and through the Yellow Sea. Half of the region's potential seaports and the ones closest to the biggest neighboring markets are simply closed. Meanwhile, the Trans-Siberian railway reaching to Europe still ends at the limited port of Vladivostok, with North Korea standing between that remote hub and the south. Imagine instead when Korea is unified and the direct rail, highway, and pipeline routes between Manchuria and South Korea are reconnected. Imagine when Korea is unified and all those North Korean ports along the western coast of the Sea of Japan are reopened for quick shipping to and from Japan and then by rail across Korea to Manchuria and China. Imagine when goods can be shipped directly from Korea west across Russia to Europe. China, Japan, and South Korea have already been talking of a regional free trade agreement. With the power of geopgraphy the North would be sitting in the middle of it all and would in time be reaping the trade and middleman benefits, but they will not reap anything but poverty so long as the current power-crazed regime remains.

Perhaps China pragmatically realizes the potential too, as quiet talk suggests that Beijing would not necessarily be opposed anymore to a unified Korea led by a gleaming Seoul and allied to the U.S. That's a groundshaker!

  Edited January 4, 2012 by Odainsaker  

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Completely correct and probably the point of tension that will come between PRC and NK. If the PRC's relationships with the NK's get any more strained, then while there is a rather weak "leader" in NK, the PRC could maybe find a Manchurian Candidate.

I don't see corporate Asia tolerating this state of affairs much longer.