2011 Hurricane Season

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In addition to that:

[un1 41]

And a brief update..

The tropics are quiet for now. However, October has been historically some of the busiest months of the year as the Western Pacific basin, the basin wiht the most activity, peaks in this month. In the Atlantic, many signs are pointing towards a very active October this year also.

Tropical Storm Ophelia rapidly intensified into the strongest storm this year, a 140mph category 4 hurricane just east of Bermuda a few days ago. She hit Newfoundland as a weakening tropical storm.

Super Typhoon Nalgae also rapidly intensified into one of the strongest storms this year in the Pacific, a 155mph super typhoon just as he made landfall in the Philippines.

The only active storm in the world right now is Tropical Storm Philippe in the Atlantic, who is on the verge of being the 5th hurricane of the year and is likely to become a hurricane in the next few days.

That's all for now, I'll have an update when Rina forms, which is likely to be in a few days.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Gack! And here we were hoping for a quiet, warmer autumn. At the moment it is sunny but quite chilly.

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From my old friend's perspective of Typhoon Nalgae and Nesat:

]"Bahang baha na dito, puno na yung mga kanal kasi yung ulan dito sa Cavite malakas dahil kay Pedring at Quiel."

He said that some of the areas around my hometown were flooded and that it was really raining heavily, though the center of the typhoon is hundreds of kilometers North.

This was Nesat

This was Nalgae.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

From my old friend's perspective of Typhoon Nalgae and Nesat:

]"Bahang baha na dito, puno na yung mga kanal kasi yung ulan dito sa Cavite malakas dahil kay Pedring at Quiel."

He said that some of the areas around my hometown were flooded and that it was really raining heavily, though the center of the typhoon is hundreds of kilometers North.

<image omitted>

This was Nesat

<image omitted>

This was Nalgae.

Neat. What language is that? Sounds sort of Polynesian.

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Neat. What language is that? Sounds sort of Polynesian.

It's Filipino (Tagalog to be exact), a Malayo-Polynesian Language with a heavy mix of Spanish

UPDATES!

[Alejandro24 575]

Jova is a monster!!!!

Yeah, Jova will be examinated by hurricane hunters from United States. http://www.informador.com.mx/primera/2011/328458/6/jova-sera-evaluado-por-equipo-cazahuracanes.htm

While here in Jalisco, and Colima, we are preparing for the impact of Jova: http://www.informador.com.mx/1020/huracanes

Tomorrow will be a great day.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Keep safe, Alejandro.

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Pretty Quiet...

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

"October, all over.

"November, remember."

Seaman's mnemonic for Hurricanes in the Atlantic

[un1 41]

Well, 2 days ago it was pretty quiet..now it's pretty hyperactive. 24 hours ago Tropical Depression 18 formed from invest 96L and has since rapidly intensified into the seasons 6th hurricane.

Currently the forecast has Rina peaking at a category 3 hurricane before weakening to a category 2 at landfall on Cozumel. But the NHC said in it's latest forecast discussion that....

GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE POOR RUN

TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN

THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA.

This amount of uncertainty is very common in October storms, especially on the intensity forecast side of things. October storms can easily exceed the intensity forecasts by 50kts and be off by 100nmi in only 3 days. The model guidance pretty much shows all possible options for Rina.

And just so you guys no..Rina is indeed the replacement name of Rita.

To finish off this update, here is a picture of invest 97L, which models currently predict it to become another major hurricane in the Caribbean.

[Alejandro24 575]

Rina have a forecast more or less like Wilma in october of 2005.

[un1 41]

Well Rina's story ended nicely. She almost got to major hurricane status, was very close to it for a few hours and might've been one briefly. Then she started to mysteriously rapidly weaken. She made landfall on Mexico as a tropical storm, way better than the category 3 hurricane she was expected to be at one point. 97L became nothing also. However, November is already more active than October so far.

This morning, Subtropical Storm Sean formed out of an extratropical storm. Just a few hours ago he got upgraded to a tropical storm. Not much is expected to happen with him, the NHC says he'll peak out at 50mph before he heads out to sea. Tropical storm watches have been issued for Bermuda, but it seems unlikely that they will see anything more than rain and waves from him.

The real story is the incredibly rare storm out in the Mediterranean right now. Dr Jeff Masters from Wunderground wrote a really good blog post about this unusual storm today (scroll down to "Unusual tropical storm-like low forms off coast of France" just below everything about Sean). Currently, NOAA has this storm as Tropical Storm 01M (unofficially named Rolf), making it the first ever recorded tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean. There is no one issuing advisories on it, and a track and intensity isn't really well known. It seems more likely that this storm is subtropical, rather than tropical as the satellite intensity dictates.

Although TS Sean and "TS"Rolf are definitely very similar, they even look the same on satellite.

Also good to note about what he said in his blog post: "According to research published by Gaertner et al. (2007), an increase in ocean temperatures of 3°C in the Mediterranean by the end of the century could lead to hurricanes forming there. Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain, ran 9 different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could reach 30°C." It seems likely that these storms will eventually get more common over the next few decades, and eventually we will see real tropical cyclones develop in this currently rare region. It's really amazing at how odd the Atlantic has been this year. What should've been the rarest storm this year (Arani in the South Atlantic) has been beaten by an even rarer Mediterranean storm. The strongest storm this season, achieved maximum intensity north of Bermuda..in OCTOBER (albeit early October). No one can forget the fact that there has been a record 18 storms this season also.

It seems likely that Sean will be the last storm this year in the Atlantic, but December storms are also possible, so we might be able to get Tammy in the next 2 months.

[Duke87 1,070]

So much for going into the Greek alphabet again...

[Mikeaut1 261]

That's very interesting about the storm that formed in the Mediterranean. I've always wondered if the Mediterranean Sea was capable of producing storms such as these. With rising ocean temps not only there but worldwide, I wouldn't be surprised if the Atlantic sees another one after Sean. The NHC has had lots of yellow on their maps over the past few weeks, indicating low percentage of tropical cyclone formation. The oceans are still very active!

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[un1 41]

That's very interesting about the storm that formed in the Mediterranean. I've always wondered if the Mediterranean Sea was capable of producing storms such as these. With rising ocean temps not only there but worldwide, I wouldn't be surprised if the Atlantic sees another one after Sean. The NHC has had lots of yellow on their maps over the past few weeks, indicating low percentage of tropical cyclone formation. The oceans are still very active!

Yeah, the Mediterranean storm was very impressive. It dissipated on impact with France, so I don't think it caused too great of damage. And yes, the NHC does have a lot of yellow circles, but that is normal for this time of year. If the NHC thinks a storm has a decent chance of developing in a few days it is usually orange. I believe that the NHC uses yellow circles to cover themselves if it does mysteriously develop, not because it actually has any chance in 48 hours (3 storms this year developed when they were at 20%, so it isn't all that rare).

Anyways, Sean has been absorbed by a front, after he achieved 65mph winds (he might've been at hurricane strength at some point on the 9th of November however, we'll have to see in post-season reanalysis). What is most amazing about this November is that models show 2 more storms developing in the next 5 days. If Tammy and Vince were to develop in the next 5 days, we would tie 2005 for most November storms (3, in 2005 Gamma, Delta and Epsilon developed in November).

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[un1 41]

The 2011 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific seasons have ended, with the NHC posting their final scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook with the famous last paragraph of "THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2011 [Atlantic/Eastern Pacific] HURRICANE SEASON. THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON [June/May] [1/15] (Atlantic starts on June 1st, Eastern Pacific starts on May 15th) 2012. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORMS DURING THE OFF-SEASON."

A lot has happened in the past week, surprisingly, even though November is usually one of the more quiet months of the year as only the North Indian Ocean basin has it's peak in November.

In the Eastern Pacific basin a week ago, a hurricane named Kenneth formed. Formations at this time of year is rare enough, but to make this even more rare, it's a La Nina year, which is when the waters of the equatorial Pacific is colder than normal, thus making the Pacific basin usually have a weak tropical cyclone season. But Kenneth was a final chapter in the amazing season that was the 2011 Eastern Pacific season, he did what many other storms did, became a category 4 hurricane with 145mph winds, then quickly weakened afterward. Kenneth became the strongest hurricane in the EPac in November, in a La Nina year. Quite impressive if I must say so.

Hurricane Kenneth near peak intensity.

The NHC also decided that it would upgrade Tropical Storm Nate to Hurricane Nate in it's post season review, making it the "7th" hurricane this year (though it was the 3rd hurricane of the year when it became one), still a really low number but it's getting better with the post season analysis.

The NHC also decided that it would upgrade a previously unnamed storm that formed on Sept 1st north of Bermuda to tropical storm strength. This unnamed storm is officially the 13th storm of the year, bringing the total to 19, tying 2010, 1995 and 1932 for 3rd most active year on record.

This is invest 90L, which is likely the last storm to have even a remote chance of developing. The NHC currently gives it 20%, and it has some good model support. If it develops it will become Tammy (it would've been named Vince, had the unnamed storm been named in the operation season), bringing our total storm number to 20. I would say that the chance of developing is pretty low right now, but once these types of storms start developing, they really don't stop.

Otherwise, I'll make the final post of the year near the end of December to post a summary of the season and the totals, as well as the first predictions for 2012 and whether or not I'll actually do this again next year.

I'll leave off with 3 links...

Here's a summary of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season by NOAA (including a bit more info on Hurricane Irene).

Here's a summary of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season in a Wunderblog post by Dr. Jeff Masters from Wunderground.

Here's a Youtube animation of the entire 2011 Atlantic season (and part of the Eastern Pacific season) by view from satellites.