2011 Hurricane Season

[Meg 368]

Irene has passed. I lost power for about 20 hours. My neighborhood lost some trees and siding and there are a lot of leaves and branches scattered all over the place. All in all, not too bad.

A tropical storm causing flooding in Vermont? What is wrong with this picture?

[hym 358]

A tropical storm causing flooding in Vermont? What is wrong with this picture?

The fact that it's not raining where it is needed? It was 107F today, but the humidity was so low that was fairly comfortable today. In fact, even at 105F, the temperatures felt like it was in the mid 70's.

[Easy Bakes 253]

Hopefully every one is ok.

[Duke87 1,070]

We have a huge piece of a tree on our roof. And no power until most likely later this week. But the damage is minor and we're all fine.

Also, the trains still aren't running, so I'm not at work today.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Glad you are OK. You'll probably need a crane to get the junk off your roof.

[Meg 368]

We have a huge piece of a tree on our roof. And no power until most likely later this week. But the damage is minor and we're all fine.

Also, the trains still aren't running, so I'm not at work today.

Part of a tree on the roof? Hopefully the roof damage isn't bad.

Down here around the Chesapeake bay, we are doing remarkably well. Due to Irene's path, the bay didn't get a storm surge. Even the low lying old colonial port towns of the Alexandria, VA and Annapolis, MD didn't have any flooding. and they often flood during heavy rain.

Surprising. but we only got sideswiped. We didn't take a direct hit.

[Duke87 1,070]

No crane necessary. My father and I climbed up on the roof with a couple saws, cut it into manageable pieces, and threw them over the side. Would've used the chainsaw, but we couldn't get it started.

[RipRap 4,400]

Time for updates...

Talas

Katia

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Looks like Katia may pick up the energy to be a hurricane, whirling around in the Atlantic. This could be the next big thump for the Atlantic coast.

[un1 41]

Well my vacation is starting to end, so I'll start updating again. It seems that Irene has caused enough damage to get into the top 20 of most damaging storms in the US. With preliminary damage reports near 10 billion including the Caribbean.

Currently there is Tropical Storm Katia which is forecast to become a hurricane later today. This storm has a good chance of becoming the first Cape Verde major hurricane but will pose threats only to Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and possibly the Northern Lesser Antilles.

You can see some dry air entrainment on the satellite (the fragmented look) which is currently holding her back from rapidly intensifying into anything. Dry air has actually held back every storm this year excluding Arlene and Harvey, which both died out because they made landfall not long after they formed.

Down the road, the NHC currently has an area marked at 30% chance of formation in the next 48 hours. This storm isn't an invest yet but is likely to become one soon. Because it isn't an invest yet it isn't really super easy to get a satellite image for it.

This storm is going north into the Gulf and is likely to develop there (3 of the 4 major global models show development). The Texas ridge will stop this from making landfall though and it is likely to stall out in the Gulf until it has a path which it can take somewhere. The models aren't in agreement as of where this storm will make landfall next.

[Duke87 1,070]

So, guess who still doesn't have power? Yeah. CL&P says they expect to have most people back online by Saturday night but full restoration will take until Wednesday.

It's also worth noting that the record for most people out at once in Connecticut, previously held by Hurricane Gloria in 1985... has not only been broken, it has been doubled.

Also, some Irene before and after pictures.

[Easy Bakes 253]

Wow its going to be expensive to restore those covered bridges.

[Meg 368]

Also, some Irene before and after pictures.

Great pictures, Duke. Thanks for posting the link.

[Duke87 1,070]

Poking around, a few more from the same site

One

Two

Three

Also, the MTA's Flickr stream has a lot of photos of flooding and damage to railroad infrastructure in and around New York.

Most of it's simply a matter of clearing debris or pumping water away and has already been taken care of, but the huge washed out section of the Port Jervis line will take months to repair. As, I'm sure, will many of the sections of washed out road all along the storm's path.

Even more scary with regards to that is that there are places in Vermont (and, apparently, also in North Carolina) where towns have been isolated because all the roads out of town are impassable. So, people can't get out and goods can't get in, at least by normal means.

  Edited September 1, 2011 by Duke87  

[Easy Bakes 253]

Poking around, a few more from the same site

One

Two

Three

Also, the MTA's Flickr stream has a lot of photos of flooding and damage to railroad infrastructure in and around New York.

Most of it's simply a matter of clearing debris or pumping water away and has already been taken care of, but the huge washed out section of the Port Jervis line will take months to repair. As, I'm sure, will many of the sections of washed out road all along the storm's path.

Even more scary with regards to that is that there are places in Vermont (and, apparently, also in North Carolina) where towns have been isolated because all the roads out of town are impassable. So, people can't get out and goods can't get in, at least by normal means.

thats gonna be bad with winter not to far away up there.

[un1 41]

Tropical Storm Lee has made landfall in Southern Louisiana as a 45mph tropical storm last night. Wind and surge damages should be fairly minimal, it's the tornadoes and flooding you should be concerned about. This is a slow moving storm and in some areas there will be tons of rain. In the mountainous areas that are likely to be affected by Lee, flash flooding is a real threat to you. Rain from tropical storms over mountains have been known to be cause of some of the greatest rainfall amounts ever recorded. Most of Lee's convection is to the south east of Lee because of the dry Texas air he is ingesting, so if anyone is on the east side of the storm be prepared to get stronger winds and more rain than someone on the west side.

Lee formed on September 1st in the central Gulf of Mexico. Lee strengthened to a 60mph storm before he neared land yesterday despite sucking in tons of dry air from the Texas drought.

As of the 11AM EST update, Hurricane Katia has rapidly intensified into a category 2 hurricane with 100mph winds.

The track remains very uncertain 3-5 days out, however Canada remains a likely target from this storm.

I'll have an update when Katia strengthens to a major hurricane (category 3 and higher), if she does.

[gamzdude 57]

hi i am going to update the threat of lee there is some good news but mostly bad news :( as you see lee is longer a storm it weakened to a depression last night in fact it is no longer a depression it is a remnant low but a nasty tornado threat is likely today MDT risk for tornadoes in SE AL and S/central GA today if you live in those areas i would advise you to be very careful :( stay safe . link to an artical of lee http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/article/tropical-depression-thirteen-storm-hurricane-lee_2011-08-31

  Edited September 5, 2011 by gamzdude  

[un1 41]

Like gamzdude said, Lee is now gone and we have the next set of storms to talk about already. The average peak of the season is on September 10th so there will be a lot of activity for the next month!

Top story is Katia for now who has become the strongest storm this year (however Irene's lowest pressure was lower than Katia's current pressure by 4mb).

...KATIA BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD ALONG U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA...

Good news is, Katia is expected to pass harmlessly out to sea.

Now of course that could change at any time and it is always best to watch a storm until it has past you.

If you are concerned about any effects that you might receive from Katia here is a good chart posted by the NHC demonstrating the possibility of tropical storm force winds in your area (40mph or more/35kts or more).

As you can tell Bermuda has the highest chance of TS force winds, currently at 40% chance.

The next storm off of Africa is coming, 95L, which could become Maria or Nate in the next couple days as he heads westward. NHC gives this a 60% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.

Due to changing pattern the models are very uncertain about the path after 3 days. Personally I have no clue where this storm will go and it is worth watching as 95L crosses the central Atlantic.

There is also another storm predicted to develop according to the models, this time in the south eastern Gulf. The models are unsure of where this storm will go or what intensity it will be at. Most models show a tropical storm making it's way east to Florida. Currently this storm is in a race to Maria with 95L in terms of names, however 95L has a fair advantage being already fairly well developed but this storm has the advantage of being in very good conditions for development.

This storm actually split off of Lee and is heading north into the Bay of Campeche where it will likely develop.

And to end this update, I feel like showing the SST map for the entire world.

As you can tell, the 3rd hottest sea surface temperatures are in the exact spot that the above wave is going to develop over. Might be something to watch for, however shear and dry air will be heavy for this storm just as it has been for the last 2 Gulf storms, Don and Lee.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Well, I certainly hope they can find the resources to run test versions of an updated set of models as the world warms up. If the current models are getting iffy, it is time to really start working on a better set of predictives.

I know the weather models are very large and very difficult to create, but some news is better than no news.

Doing analogue work in a digital world must be a real challenge.

  Edited September 6, 2011 by A Nonny Moose  

[un1 41]

Quite an insane year in the Atlantic right now. If 2 more tropical storms form before September 17th, we will be number one for earliest 16th storm formation, beating 2005.

Both the storms I indicated in my last post have formed, 95L beating the Bay of Campeche wave to Maria by only a few hours. Katia is no longer the main story as Nate is now the greatest concern to any land area. I'll start off with Katia anyways.

Katia is still on a track out to sea and will likely hit Europe as a massive post-tropical cyclone. The only concern in the near future is high surf and dangerous rip currents on Bermuda and the East Coast of North America.

95L became Tropical Depression 15 later on September 5th and became Tropical Storm Maria yesterday, beating the wave in the southern GoM (which was then 96L) by 6 hours to the name Maria. Maria has reached her 1st peak of 50mph as she is moving ahead of herself too quickly to retain strength. She is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later and then restrengthen to a near hurricane strength tropical storm near the Bahamas. While the weakening to a tropical depression is a good thing to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico who are expected to get a direct hit from Maria, this will cause a problem in the future as weaker storms stay further south than stronger storms and could lead Maria into Florida if she doesn't strengthen much until the Bahamas. However for now there seems to be a higher chance of a curve out to sea after affecting PR and skimming the Bahamas.

She isn't looking well at all today (if anything, worse than she did a few hours before she became a tropical cyclone):

Then we come to Nate. Nate rapidly developed into a 45mph storm yesterday and has continued strengthening at a quick pace and is currently at 70mph, 5mph from hurricane strength.

As of right now, Nate looks nothing like a near hurricane tropical storm. He lacks deep convection over his center and any deep convection in the northern 2 quadrants because of dry air. However conditions will improve over time and the NHC predicts a category 2 storm in 5 days.

The track is one of the most uncertain tracks I have ever seen (as you can tell from the huge cone). Models show this storm going into pretty much any possible locations Nate can get to on the gulf coast...all but Texas of course, who really needs this storm the most.

Some models for Nate, showing the uncertainty here:

It seems more logical that Nate will go north into Louisiana, but the lack of model support for that now means that this storm could do really anything. Hopefully with the hurricane hunter data we will finally start seeing the models agree with each other more.

[RipRap 4,400]

Updates :

Katia

Maria

Nate

Kulap

[un1 41]

Not much has happened since what I said in the last update. Katia smacked the UK a few days ago, Nate succumbed to dry air in the Bay of Campeche and never became a hurricane and went into Mexico as a weak tropical storm that caused very little damage. Maria plowed over the Lesser Antilles causing only large damage to Puerto Rico in form of flooding. Maria spent 8 days as a tropical storm struggling to reach hurricane status. She attempted it 2 times, and then the 3rd try...

...MARIA BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...

Maria brushed Bermuda today, causing unknown damage however it is believed to be minimal damage. The forecast track currently has Maria making landfall as a 75mph category 1 hurricane in 24 hours, after reaching a peak of 85mph winds just 12 hours before.

Damage in Newfoundland should be no where near as bad as the damage Igor caused. Igor made landfall in Newfoundland almost exactly this time last year despite being at the same intensity at landfall.

[RipRap 4,400]

Updating Current Situation:

2 typhoons headed STRAIGHT to Japan!

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

It would seem that the Kami are peeved with the Japanese.

[un1 41]

Sonca is actually heading out to sea and Roke is heading for Japan, but is not a typhoon.

[un1 41]

Well Roke is a typhoon now!

Last night Roke put on an impressive display of rapid intensification and became a category 3 strength hurricane with 1-minute sustained winds of 125mph. Roke has since weakened to a strong category 2 strength hurricane.

Because of this, Roke is now forecast to make landfall as a typhoon on Japan in the same place that Typhoon Talas made landfall a few weeks ago. Roke is also expected to hit the earthquake zone as a minimal typhoon.

Talas caused devastating floods in Japan and killed over 100 people. Pretty much, Japan is in the worst possible position for Roke right now. Recovery from the earthquake and the floods from Talas is still ongoing where Roke is expected to make landfall.

Over on the Atlantic side, a wave named invest 98L has been given a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression (16) or a tropical storm (Ophelia) in 48 hours. I believe that 98L will become TD16/TSOphelia later today.

Currently the models are unsure of 98L's path westward, with some models showing 98L going through the heart of the Caribbean or 98L turning sharply out to sea.

[RipRap 4,400]

Well Roke made Landfall in Hamamatsu with 13 people and counting...

Updates

and un1 is right, Ophelia is now a Tropical Storm

[un1 41]

Tropical Storm Ophelia formed in the Atlantic and is currently heading towards Bermuda and Newfoundland, however that won't be for a few days.

A storm in the Eastern Pacific, named Hilary, rapidly intensified into a 145mph category 4 hurricane yesterday and has maintained her strength today.

Despite being so close to Mexico, she actually poses very little threat to Mexico and has only dropped 3 inches of rain and gave them 40mph winds. The NHC has her going out to sea, however some models have Hilary going into Mexico a few days out.

And to end this update a new storm in the Western Pacific bears lots of watching. Currently only a tropical storm, however the forecast is for a category 4 strength typhoon landfall in the Philippines.

Might surprise you, but this actually isn't actually that rare. 1 super typhoon (155mph sustained winds or more) already made landfall on the Philippines this year. Also last year in October, Typhoon Megi crashed into Luzon at record intensity of 885mb and 185mph winds. To put that into comparison, that is one of the strongest storms to ever make landfall in the world.

[RipRap 4,400]

Updates:

Tropical Storm Nesat ("PEDRING") has intensified slightly as it moves West northwest towards the Northern Luzon area. No Public Storm Signals Yet.

Hilary

Ophelia:

Philippe:

[RipRap 4,400]

Updates: