2011 Hurricane Season

[RipRap 4,400]

Well, time to update the situation.

Muifa

Emily:

Eugene:

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

This will be bad in Haiti. Many people are still living in tents.

[un1 41]

Sorry I haven't been doing any updates..I updated my antivirus and my computer immediately started crashing, so after days of trying to fix it I uninstalled it. I also have been on a trip to Atlantic Canada/NEUS, but I haven't been able to use my computer until today.

There isn't much to update, 111222333444's pictures describe the current situation well. Muifa is heading to Japan, Eugene is going out to sea and Emily isn't predictable. I'm not even sure what she will do right now, but Haiti will probably be devastated by all the tropical rain (unless it follows Dons path and dissipates minutes after landfall). Amazingly both Eugene and Muifa look very annular, which would be the first time on the globe there have been two annular tropical cyclones at once. Also, it is a very, very, very rare occurrence for there to even be an annular storm, with only a ~3% chance of a storm ever becoming annular. Somehow 3 storms in 2011 (Adrian, Eugene and Muifa) have become annular.

Summary of the Worldwide Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Seasons

We've had record activity so far this year in the Atlantic, with 3 storms forming during the month of July alone and Emily forming not even a day into August. However none of the 5 storms this year have become hurricanes.

In the Eastern Pacific a nearly record 5 out of 5 storms have become hurricanes so far, 3 of those becoming major hurricanes. I'm unsure of what is going on right now and I don't think that this will continue into the peak of the season.

The Western Pacific has been a bit slower compared to active years, however 2 storms have reached category 5 strength so far which means we have had a very normal year so far.

The North Indian Ocean basin has had a very inactive start with only 3 depressions forming so far compared to 3 named storms before the end of June last year.

The Southern Hemisphere seasons, excluding the South Pacific and the South Atlantic (which had its 3rd named storm ever form this year) were very inactive. The South Indian Ocean basin had the quietest year ever in the winter of 2010-2011, the Australian region had a majority of it's storms form in the South Pacific. The South Pacific had a normal year, however it was a near record years in terms of storms reaching major hurricane strength. The South Atlantic had Subtropical Storm Arani form making it one of the few years to have a subtropical/tropical storm form.

[RipRap 4,400]

Time to update the situation:

A new typhoon - Merbok:

Muifa:

Eugene:

[RipRap 4,400]

I was so busy that I forgot to update the situation.

The Pacific Remains Quiet...

Tropical Storm Gert

[un1 41]

Sorry about the complete lack of updates, I've been on vacation and I am enjoying it too much to be bothered to make updates. But I feel that an update is needed now.

The tropical Atlantic has been spitting out many weak storms, nearly reaching the average of 11 storms per year and it isn't even September! When Irene formed it marked the 3rd earliest time that the 9th storm formed, following behind 2005 by a week or so and tying 1936. Dr. Jeff Masters from Wunderground says that at the current pace we will reach 24-27 storms, the second most active season on record following behind 2005. This would be the second time we will see the Greek alphabet used because the list of names will be exhausted (21 names on the list of names).

Map of the track of all the storms so far this year.

Round dots = has tropical cyclone characteristics, triangle dots = has some tropical cyclone characteristics but not all

Dark blue dots = Winds of 39mph and less (tropical depression strength), light blue dots = 40mph-74mph winds (tropical storm strength)

Irene formed on August 20th as a wave that came off of Africa. It quickly reached 50mph winds and passed over the Lesser Antilles barely a day after formation. The storm kept organizing, despite the models and the forecast saying that it wouldn't until later. Last night recon found winds of 75mph as the storm neared Puerto Rico, the NHC dismissed this for now and Irene officially made landfall on PR as a 70mph storm. Then the storm jumped..it jumped over PR and intensified to an 80mph storm, which it still is now and will likely remain until it passes just north of the Dominican Republic, sadly this pass will not do much more than stop the south side of the storm from developing deep convection and will not weaken the storm much.

Damage reports from PR are not out yet, but the damage shouldn't be too bad. Neither should the damage in the Dominican Republic. Luckily this storm will mostly miss Haiti as a trof will pull the storm up into the Bahamas, however then into the south-east US.

Hurricane Irene 6 hours ago.

After the Bahamas, the track is very uncertain, so is the intensity forecast. The NHC currently has a major hurricane landfall in SC in 4 days, but it is very uncertain and will be much more certain in about 2 days.

Models are very widespread, the thing is..they all predict a category 2 landfall somewhere on the US, so this storm poses a major threat from South Florida to North Carolina.

Here is a very good exert from a blog post posted by a Wunderground meteorologist that I feel describes the situation better.

"Track forecast for Irene

The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.

Intensity forecast for Irene

The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States."

So, if you live from Key West to Cape Hatteras I would get your hurricane plans out and figure out what to do if you decide evacuate when they call for it. I would also watch this storm very closely. The NHC puts out advisory's and discussions every 3 hours when there is a tropical storm/hurricane watch/warning so I would make sure to monitor this storm closely. Don't make any plans to leave yet though, the uncertainty is way too huge to pinpoint a landfall location right now. For all we know it might go into Cuba or go out to sea. I would closely monitor the situation for now.

If you live in Southern Bahamas, be prepared for hurricane like conditions tomorrow. In the Northern Bahamas, get ready for major hurricane like conditions. It's gonna be a crazy week.

Remember, the storm can turn right into you at the last minute! (if you live on the SEUS coast)

[RipRap 4,400]

This could turn really ugly...

Latest Updated Satellite Image

[un1 41]

Well, Irene is a lethal storm. Dry air and land interaction did not stop it from becoming upgrade to a category 2 a few minutes ago..a jump of 20mph winds in 3 hours....this might be a major hurricane by tomorrow over the southern Bahamas. She is indeed a very, very ugly storm. Anyone in the southeastern US coast should continue to monitor this storm very very closely.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Well, Irene is a lethal storm. Dry air and land interaction did not stop it from becoming upgrade to a category 2 a few minutes ago..a jump of 20mph winds in 3 hours....this might be a major hurricane by tomorrow over the southern Bahamas. She is indeed a very, very ugly storm. Anyone in the southeastern US coast should continue to monitor this storm very very closely.

Doesn't look great for Hispaniola, and will probably raise hell on the South Eastern coast of the U.S.

BTW, we had an F3 Tornado strike Goderich, Ontario (30Km north of me) on the weekend, and the damage to Ontario's most beautiful town was major. The whole town square and some streets were just wiped. First such event in 15 years. Here we got a few thundershowers and had no indication that it was a super cell. One dead.

[gamzdude 57]

Well, Irene is a lethal storm. Dry air and land interaction did not stop it from becoming upgrade to a category 2 a few minutes ago..a jump of 20mph winds in 3 hours....this might be a major hurricane by tomorrow over the southern Bahamas. She is indeed a very, very ugly storm. Anyone in the southeastern US coast should continue to monitor this storm very very closely.

Doesn't look great for Hispaniola, and will probably raise *** on the South Eastern coast of the U.S.

BTW, we had an F3 Tornado strike Goderich, Ontario (30Km north of me) on the weekend, and the damage to Ontario's most beautiful town was major. The whole town square and some streets were just wiped. First such event in 15 years. Here we got a few thundershowers and had no indication that it was a super cell. One dead.

Oh my gosh that is terrible i am glad you are okay .

[hym 358]

This would be the second time we will see the Greek alphabet used because the list of names will be exhausted (21 names on the list of names).

I seem to remember that the general public was so freaked out over the use of the Greek alphabet for hurricane naming that the practice was officially discontinued the following year.

[un1 41]

BTW, we had an F3 Tornado strike Goderich, Ontario (30Km north of me) on the weekend, and the damage to Ontario's most beautiful town was major. The whole town square and some streets were just wiped. First such event in 15 years. Here we got a few thundershowers and had no indication that it was a super cell. One dead.

Yeah, it looks terrible. We drove through Goderich the day before the tornado (coming up from Northern Ohio to Collingwood) and it really was a beautiful town.

I seem to remember that the general public was so freaked out over the use of the Greek alphabet for hurricane naming that the practice was officially discontinued the following year.

I don't quite remember anything like that, but if we are really only forecast to have 1 or 2 more storms after we exhaust the list of names the NHC might just add a few names to the list, such as they did in the 1985 Pacific hurricane season.

Anyways, the models are shifting towards the east. Only few models show that the storm will make landfall in Florida, Georgia and SC. Most of them have shifted to the east, showing a NC hit.

I would still watch this storm closely if you lived from Florida-North Carolina, as there is still uncertainty. However, the models are getting better data, so this eastward trend may be here to stay. I would definitely watch this storm closely if I lived between Myrtle Beach and Cape Hatteras. I would also prepare to evacuate (if you decide too, I would really recommend this), as this thing will be making landfall as a massive borderline category 3 storm, similar to Ike of 2008. As always, trust your local officials more than me, however my advice would be too follow what they say. If they say evacuate, evacuate. Also, if this eastward trend does continue to stay, there is a chance that this storm may threaten the rest of the east coast states/provinces all the way up to Newfoundland.

Irene is still a category 2 storm as Hispaniola is disrupting her inner core, preventing any strengthening..for now.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

This would be the second time we will see the Greek alphabet used because the list of names will be exhausted (21 names on the list of names).

I seem to remember that the general public was so freaked out over the use of the Greek alphabet for hurricane naming that the practice was officially discontinued the following year.

So don't use Greek letters. Use Greek names instead. Alexandros, Victorios, Galatea, Delphos, ... Yep the letter β is a vee sound. Poor panicky American plebs populi. No education at all.

[gamzdude 57]

Hi since un1 i not online right now i have decided to keep you updated on Hurricane Irene.

I hate to say this but this is a very ugly storm it is right now a category 3 a major hurricane and here is the path of the storm and threat level it looks like eastern NC and the New England area is at a huge risk of being impacted so if you live in the east coast i would recommend you to evacuate and watch this storm very close here is the thereat level as you can see there is a high risk on all of the east coast and a possibility for a extreme risk purple color .

so if you live any where from eastern NC/the east coast i would highly recommend you keep a huge close eye on Irene this a very dangerous situation .

  Edited August 24, 2011 by gamzdude  

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Over in the weather thread, I posted the just issued Tornado watch for my area. If another one hits Goderich, the town will simply be wiped out.

[un1 41]

Irene...has winds of 120mph and is moving NW at 12mph. Pressure is a low 954mb.

Irene seems to be currently going under an eyewall replacement cycle. This will make the eye bigger and make it easier for the storm to strengthen. It will also temporarily lower its intensity and pressure.

Current path takes it slightly west of the Outer Banks as a major hurricane. The uncertainty is still there, and there is a chance that it could make landfall on the outer banks. This hasn't changed much since yesterday, so we might be looking at Irene making landfall on the Outer Banks. However, there seems to be a very high chance that the outer banks will receive the brunt of Irene and I would highly recommend evacuating the Outer Banks region. If you live on the entire coast of NC as well as quite a bit inland, I would start preparing for tropical storm/hurricane force winds now. The storm has a huge wind field, with TS force winds extending 200+ miles and will create a high surge for such a weak storm. Once again, always follow the orders that your local authorities issue as they know more than me and have better control.

The path then takes Irene to NYC as a 100mph, category 2 hurricane. After NY, the next forecast point is Maine as an 80mph storm. If this does indeed happen, I would strongly recommend preparing for hurricane force winds, and maybe even evacuating if you are in a low lying area on the entire coast line up from NC. This would be one of the worst disasters to happen to NY and New England in many many years. Of course, follow the local authorities advice when it comes to preparations and evacuation. I'm just saying you should consider this storm as a real threat to your life if you live on the entire US coast up from Wilmington, NC. Remember, you can rebuild your home but you can't rebuild yourself once you die.

[Duke87 1,070]

Hmm... all off a sudden the odds that I'm going to make it into work on Monday really aren't looking good.

[DCMetro34 577]

We're already evacuating our coast.... I might recommend that some of you people north of NC prepare for the possibility of doing the same... Things can change fast... we know that from past experiences.

  Edited August 25, 2011 by DCMetro34  

[Meg 368]

They are now saying that Irene could be the worst storm to hit the east coast in decades.

The worst storm to hit where? Here in Maryland, we were hit with Hurricane Isabel, which was a category 5 the size of Texas. Irene is going to be worse than that? or are they talking about hitting farther north?

Truth is, they don't exactly know yet. I've seen several different projected paths. None of them look good.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Canadian Hurricane Centre's Predicted Track

[Duke87 1,070]

Looks like the storm shifting west gives it more land further south and weakens it sooner. Sooo... Cat 1 hurricane for Southern New England, not Cat 2.

On another note, I swear people are retarded. I go to the store today and everything is stocked just fine, except bottled water, which the shelf has already been entirely cleared of. Forget the old saying about milk eggs and bread in a blizzard, nowadays it's freaking bottled water. Because, you know, there's nothing else you can drink which doesn't need to be kept cold (plenty of soda at the store!). And the other logical necessity: stuff you can munch on which doesn't need to be refrigerated or cooked (pretzels, crackers, cereal, what have you), is not in short supply either.

See, this is why I hate people. There's a hurricane coming, everybody panic and buy bottled water!!! Or you could, you know, use that gray blob which is competing for space with air inside your skull and think. Really, this isn't rocket science!

(not to mention that if you really want to stock up on water, you can just fill other containers with it from the tap prior to the storm...)

[RipRap 4,400]

Updates from Irene and other storms (check out http://rammb.cira.co...tifier=AL092011)

Irene:

TD Ten

Nanmadol:

Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds)

Isabela

Cagayan

Northern Aurora

Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)

Batanes

Calayan

Babuyan Grp.

Apayao

Kalinga

Quirino

Rest of Aurora

Signal No. 1(45-60 kph winds)

Ilocos Norte

Abra

Ilocos Sur

Mt. Prov.

Benguet

Ifugao

Nueva Vizcaya

Nueva Ecija

Talas (Sharp in Filipino)

  Edited August 26, 2011 by 111222333444  

[Meg 368]

Glenn Beck: Hurricane Irene is a "Blessing"

It's too early to say how many people will die or how much property damage there will be or how much money it will cost to fix things but, seeing as how Hurricane Irene is the size of Europe, it's probably a safe bet to say the results will not be good.

A blessing?

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Glenn Beck: Hurricane Irene is a "Blessing"

It's too early to say how many people will die or how much property damage there will be or how much money it will cost to fix things but, seeing as how Hurricane Irene is the size of Europe, it's probably a safe bet to say the results will not be good.

A blessing?

This ID ten T is clearly a member of the worst of the chattering classes. These people will say anything to gain attention. A hurricane is a natural phenomenon and is neither a blessing nor a curse. It is one of those things that cannot be cured, but must be endured. I hope most people heed the warnings and get out of the way.

[Duke87 1,070]

Glenn Beck: Hurricane Irene is a "Blessing"

It's too early to say how many people will die or how much property damage there will be or how much money it will cost to fix things but, seeing as how Hurricane Irene is the size of Europe, it's probably a safe bet to say the results will not be good.

A blessing?

Calling it a blessing is a bad way of putting it, but I get what he's saying. "Hard lesson" might be a better term.

Of course, it's one thing to be prepared for a hurricane (reasonable). It's another entirely to be preparing for the utter collapse of civilization (far fetched).

The scary thought is that if something like that does happen, it will be only the crazy people who survive...

[Easy Bakes 253]

Glenn Beck: Hurricane Irene is a "Blessing"

It's too early to say how many people will die or how much property damage there will be or how much money it will cost to fix things but, seeing as how Hurricane Irene is the size of Europe, it's probably a safe bet to say the results will not be good.

A blessing?

Calling it a blessing is a bad way of putting it, but I get what he's saying. "Hard lesson" might be a better term.

Of course, it's one thing to be prepared for a hurricane (reasonable). It's another entirely to be preparing for the utter collapse of civilization (far fetched).

The scary thought is that if something like that does happen, it will be only the crazy people who survive...

Dang Glen Beck Will survive?

Wont media stars amd lawyers be the 1st targets of the roveing street mobs after the collapse?

  Edited August 27, 2011 by Easy Bakes  

[Meg 368]

Calling it a blessing is a bad way of putting it, but I get what he's saying. "Hard lesson" might be a better term.

I can go with that.

Down here we are wondering what earthquake damage will become obvious during the hurricane. The earthquake was only 3 days ago so inspection and repair crews haven't had a chance to get to everything. But, for instance, in my condo complex, it's more than possible that the quake jarred the skylights to the point where the waterproof seal has been broken. Not something immediately obvious. Not something the crews have had a chance to check. But something that could be a major problem when the hurricane hits.

Of course, it's one thing to be prepared for a hurricane (reasonable). It's another entirely to be preparing for the utter collapse of civilization (far fetched).

The scary thought is that if something like that does happen, it will be only the crazy people who survive...

Which is one of the many reasons that I don't want to survive the utter collapse of civilization.

[Schulmanator 5,812]

Well, we are under the left half of the hurricane ATM but too far from the eye for anything interesting... just weird clouds and gusty winds... no rain. But of course its still coming. But not straight at us... too far inland to get anything too bad here. Now to wait and see what happens...

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

The effects charts are coming close to us, but we are outside them. As these things go, it will probably cause some windy weather here in Huronia.

Just looking at the spaghetti diagram on the news right now, one of the projected tracks takes the eye through Quebec City. The weather in that part of the country has been pretty bad. We haven't had this kind of thing for several years. I hope we don't get a repeat of the great blackout.

[RipRap 4,400]

Time to Update the Situation around the Oceans

Hurricane Irene made landfall in North Carolina and it is on its way to New York City.

At the same time, Typhoon Nanmadol made landfall on Cagayan Province in the Philippines and it's on its way to Taiwan.

Talas is heading to Tohoku in Japan and it is threatening earthquake survivors there.