Hurricane Season 2006

[cityhawk 12]

I, as well as many others, have noticed that the hurricanes that hit the U.S. are getting stronger and stronger every year. Just look at how many of those hurricanes were, at least once, a category 5 just last year. I hate to say it, everybody, but I think the U.S. is going to experience worse hurricanes than last year.

So what do you think Hurricane Season 2006 is going to be like?

Note: Remember to follow the forum rules (especially the one about no talk of politics)

[thatmonkeysim 8]

i dont even want to think of what will happen

[Skink000 0]

Originally posted by: thatmonkeysim

i dont even want to think of what will happen quote>

Im with you, thatmonkeysim, my house has been

trashed two years in a row thanks to Charlie and Wilma .
Been here in South West  Florida for about 23 years

and hope that next year I can move west for some of that dry heat

and higher altitude.

[Easy Bakes 253]

Last year they ran out of names.
this may be a disappointing year in terms of the number of storms.
But know one realy knows
So we will see. im sure the people along the coasts would like a slow year.

[brancra 1,060]

Firstly, here are the storm names, from the NOAA:

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and William

Secondly, the preliminary forecast, released in December by Drs. Klotzbach and Gray at Colorado State, defines the average number of storms a season as about ten tropical storms, six of which will be hurricanes, two of wich will be Category 3 or greater. NOAA says it's 6-14 named storm, 4 to 8 hurricanes ans 1 to 3 Cat 3's or greater.

The forecast this year: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, of which five will be Cat 3 or greater. To sum that up, they are predicted a bad year. Abnormally intense and strong, an even stronger prediction than with 2005's season.

But it gets worse folks.

Reports and studies conducted by the group indicate an 81% chance of one of those major hurricanes striking the mainland U.S.- A 64% chance it will be the East Coast or Florida Peninsula, 47% chance it will be in the gulf. Meanwhile, the Caribbean indicator for strong hurricanes is much stronger than normal, indicating the potential of the storms being in the Caribbean to be much greater than normal.

However, here's how prelim forecasts work- the first, from CSU, comes in December. The next is in April, and then two in May. Two more come out in August. Last year, the December forecast predicted 11 storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. April's went up to 13, 7, 3 respectively. May forecasts had about 15, 8, 4 each, and August's had 20, 10, 6. It just kept going up.

To sum it up ladies and gentlemen: the prospects are dim for a quiet season, but don't fold the cards your hand just yet. The next round of betting is still in the pipeline.

[ten1902 4]

id like to find some concrete(or semi-concrete) evidence on the occurence/intensity of hurricanes...

it seems like we only remember the tough years, and the years that arent as bad(easy for me to say...i live in Charlotte) just kinda pass out of memory...

im not discountin what has happened the last couple years, but take a minute and think about(over the last 10-20 years) whether or not it has honestly been progressively worse from one year to the next!!!!

edit...wow!!!
i apparently type very slowly...i started typin b4 brancra
however...i stand by what i said...i would like to see some evidence of progressively worse storms

[hym 358]

I heard that the East Coast is supposed to get the brunt of the damage this year.  Things have shifted to so the Gulf won't get hit as much for a few years and eventually, things will shift so that the US won't get hit much for about 20 years.

[confused04 14]

Whats most disturbing was that La Nina was not as strong as this year and nor was last year even classified as a "La Nina" year. La Nina has statiscally been linked with stronger hurricane seasons as the cool water promotes less shear that could destroy hurricanes. With above normal temperatures, the La Nina factor, and the cycle of hurricane activity, chances are this season will be measurable or surpass the last season. I doubt last seasons records will be broken (as two years with broken records would be highly unlikely). Anyway... I hope that the jet stream this year will be further south and block the hurricanes from the East Coast, we had Isabel and that was bad enough, never the less the other remnants and hurricanes that really didn't help. From Gastone, to Ophelia, and the remants of Ivan, Charlie, Jeanne and Floyd, Delmarva just doesn't need any more (its a poor region so I don't want anything to hit there).

[Micah 16]

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and Williamquote>

So that's the list for 2006... Hmm... Gordon sounds like he is going to be a pain. William reminds me of Wilma as soon as I saw it...

But really, I don't want to predict this hurricane season... I hope Rita never happens in my life. I was in traffic for 18 hours!!!! It was one of the worst days in my life at 101 degree temperatures (F).

[Skink000 0]

I know I'm off topic but just wanted to compliment Micah

on a great web site . http://march4marc.oplink.net/

[Dr. Neitchskrimfrauwnmoya 7]

Oh dear lord, I was sure it was a thread about the Carolina Hurricanes NHL team

They are good but not as much as when they had Cole.

Anyway, back on the topic, I keep reading everywhere that there will be more and more hurricanes.

[simmax 0]

I thinl that I'm quite lucky to live in Paris. There's been a storm in 1998, but it didn't do much harm. No earthquakes, no volcanoes, no snow, no heat above 40

[Micah 16]

Originally posted by: simmax

I thinl that I'm quite lucky to live in Paris. There's been a storm in 1998, but it didn't do much harm.

No earthquakes, no volcanoes, no snow, no heat above 40

[cityhawk 12]

Originally posted by: ten1902

... im not discountin what has happened the last couple years, but take a minute and think about(over the last 10-20 years) whether or not it has honestly been progressively worse from one year to the next!!!! ...i would like to see some evidence of progressively worse stormsquote>

Whoa! Hold on there! I didn't mean to mislead you, but I wasn't talking about the past 10-20 years! I was talking about recently (about the past 2 or 3 years). However, you do have to admit that the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has risen over the past several decades. Scientists say this is because of global warming, which they also predict will make tropical storms and hurricanes more intense as the 21st century progresses. This info can be read here.

Now, aside from the facts, I would just like to say that I hope for the best of everybody vulnerable to a hurricane/tropical storm. I myself live on the Gulf Coast of Alabama; if a hurricane like Katrina strikes here, there's no tellin' how bad the damage would be. Just look at what Katrina did to us: there were trees and powerlines down everywhere, buildings without roofs or walls, signs gone, and the town of Bayou La Batre looked like a barren wasteland...and we were more than 100 miles away from Katrina's eyewall! Just hope and pray, everybody, that this hurricane season will be a dud compared to the 2005 season.

[Micah 16]

Well, our history on hurricanes only goes back at 1863 which is when we started recording them. During the early 1800s, hurricanes were actually worse. Over 100,000 people died in one hurricane in Japan in the mid-1800s. In Asia, the early 1800s was a dark period when it came to hurricanes.

[cityhawk 12]

Originally posted by: Micah

Well, our history on hurricanes only goes back at 1863 which is when we started recording them. During the early 1800s, hurricanes were actually worse. Over 100,000 people died in one hurricane in Japan in the mid-1800s. In Asia, the early 1800s was a dark period when it came to hurricanes.quote>

That many people dying in that one hurricane probably was the result of the lack of an evacuation plan and the lack of weather forecasting by T.V. (Remember, 1863 was a long time ago. They didn't have as advanced technology back then as we do now).

[thatmonkeysim 8]

exactly if Katrina hit and we still had the same technology then there could be millions that could have died...

[simmax 0]

Originally posted by: Micah Well, if I remember correctly, didn't thousands die in France about 4 years ago during the worst heat wave ever? quote>

Hmm...That's right - although the figures really vary. But they were mostly old people in hospitals, an a good part of them would have died within a few months. Besides, the heat wasn't that extreme - well below 40

[thatmonkeysim 8]

man 40 degrees isnt that bad lol it gets that hot all the time where ive lived at

and o yea ten1902... IM FROM CHARLOTTE TOO!!! and i thought i was the only one!

[godmodd5 0]

what i do know is that there be a massive heatwave over western north america.

it will extend from alaska through the canadian praries and down to texas.

Average temps 5-10C above average and rainfall varying from very wet to extremly dry.

Givin a hot airmass over the contenent, hurricanes may be diverted toward the seaboard.

Cities like newyork, boston, halifax, and wasington may be at a high risk this year

[Praetorian Cohort 0]

Here in Phoenix, we laugh at 40C temperatures.

Hopefully the oil refineries won't be shut down this year. some places around here charged $6.999+ for gas at one point.

[The_Family_Guy 2]

Originally posted by: Micah

Well, our history on hurricanes only goes back at 1863 which is when we started recording them. During the early 1800s, hurricanes were actually worse. Over 100,000 people died in one hurricane in Japan in the mid-1800s. In Asia, the early 1800s was a dark period when it came to hurricanes.quote>

Let's not forget the horrible cyclones that hit the middle east. Millions of people died in one storm.

Hurricane seasons are in great cycles that last about 10-15 years. The last one I think was in the early 80's to the early 90's (storms like Hugo and Andrew, etc).

But with the razing of the rain forest in Africa, there is no friction to shear the strong monsoonal winds apart, therefore, the storms off the African coast have all the power they want.

And because the earth has warmed about one degree or so, hurricanes have their own little food source. Especially in the Gulf of Mexico, where the waters are stagnant and very warm; remember, hurricanes are the earth's way of cooling itself.

[Micah 16]

Originally posted by: The_Family_Guy

Let's not forget the horrible cyclones that hit the middle east. Millions of people died in one storm.

Hurricane seasons are in great cycles that last about 10-15 years. The last one I think was in the early 80's to the early 90's (storms like Hugo and Andrew, etc).

And with the razing of the rain forest in Africa, there is no friction to shear the strong monsoonal winds apart, therefore, the storms off the African coast have all the power they want.

And because the earth has warmed about one degree or so, hurricanes have their own little food source. Especially in the Gulf of Mexico, where the waters are stagnant and very warm; remember, hurricanes are the earth's way of cooling itself.quote>

Yeah, I'm not disagreeing with anyone when it comes to the oceans getting warmer.

I believe that they are and that humans have a role in this heat wave, but people act like these type of hurricanes are something brand new, but even worse ones have hit other parts of the world before. But not only that, our records for hurricanes only go back to atleast the early 1800s with a few exceptions...

I'm simply saying that not only is this part of 'Global Warming', but this is also part of a cycle too.

You know, the strangest thing about Global Warming is that it increases the cloud cover (also known as smog) around the world because of pollution... but just 3 months ago, they (scientist) found out that our world would be even hotter if it weren't for those pollution clouds... isn't that weird?

Edit: Ok... let's get back to the subject of Hurricane Season 2006, please.(I'm sorry myself)

[thatmonkeysim 8]

no we are still on topic... it still has to do with the Hurricane Season....

i agree that this is just another cycle of strong Hurricanes in the world just like in the 30s and 60s...

but i also agree that humans have contributed alittle but not as much as most people think we have

[cityhawk 12]

Originally posted by: thatmonkeysim

... but i also agree that humans have contributed alittle but not as much as most people think we havequote>

I don't know. I think human activity has contributed anywhere between a little and a lot, but not either one of those. As for the cycles, what causes them anyway? It's all crazy if you ask me.

[jglei701 8]

The fact of the matter is this:  For everything people have said about Global Warming... it's just a theory.  The scientists really don't have the baseline data necessary to determine if the planet is heating, or cooling, or anything else.  Modern meteorology has only been around 70 years, at the very longest, and the longest that the computer models have been out can't be any more than 30 years (the technology simply wasn't there previously). 

After last year's hurricane season, I remember the Weather Channel guys like Jim Cantore saying that what their models showed was an upturn in the frequency of hurricanes (and thus an upturn in the intensity as well).  They said that there was an ebb and flow with this frequency, and we're beginning (or currently in) a 15-20 year cycle with more hurricanes.  Now, this concerns me because my sister lives in Orlando, one of my best friends in New Orleans, and my parents have a condo near Tampa... but what are you going to do?  All I think we can do is be as prepared as possible.  For those possibly "in harms way," they need to have a viable plan for getting out, and, as we saw in South Florida with Katrina last year, even a "minor" hurricane is a big deal... people need to be smart and respect even the "small" ones. 

I would not be surprized to see a similar number of hurricanes (including powerful ones) this year in the Atlantic.  Hopefully they don't all strike the same general areas like the last two years... but that seems to be the common theme for hurricanes that find their way into the Gulf.

EDIT: Cityhawk, how far are you from Gulf Shores?  I've spent quite a bit of time there over the years, and I heard about the extensive damage there from Ivan two years ago.  Have things gotten relatively back to normal, or have they been hindered by the hurricanes from last year as well?

[Micah 16]

Originally posted by: thatmonkeysim

no we are still on topic... it still has to do with the Hurricane Season....

i agree that this is just another cycle of strong Hurricanes in the world just like in the 30s and 60s...

but i also agree that humans have contributed alittle but not as much as most people think we havequote>

Exactly... you basically summed up what I was saying.

It's very interesting how an extreme environmental group told everyone in New Orleans not to build a wall in the lower swamp areas, and now it turns out that it would have been better with the wall than without it... especially better for the environment.

[safemining1 0]

Oh, I know! WE'RE ALL DOOMED! Let's just say that It won't be any better than 2005. Our planet is going into another mass excision anyway. Which is NORMAL.

[cityhawk 12]

Originally posted by: jglei701

EDIT: Cityhawk, how far are you from Gulf Shores?  I've spent quite a bit of time there over the years, and I heard about the extensive damage there from Ivan two years ago.  Have things gotten relatively back to normal, or have they been hindered by the hurricanes from last year as well?quote>

I'm about 68 miles away in adjacent Mobile County. I haven't been to Gulf Shores since last summer. However, when I did go, there was construction going on everywhere: condos were being rebuilt, other businesses were being restored, and a lot of the beach was being worked on because it was simply a mess; but now, as far as I know, Gulf Shores is in great shape.