2011 Hurricane Season

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Too bad these things are so destructive, but I am sure the drought relief will be welcomed by the agriculture sector. If there wasn't so much energy in these things, you could say the monsoon has begun.

[un1 41]

Too bad these things are so destructive, but I am sure the drought relief will be welcomed by the agriculture sector. If there wasn't so much energy in these things, you could say the monsoon has begun.

Yeah, Arlene had a lot of energy when she made landfall, only because of her massive size and 65mph winds.

Arlene brought drought busting rains to Mexico..in the form of 14 inches in some places, causing huge floods. She's also huuuge, bringing a storm surge that is really big compared to the category she is (Tropical Storm). She was really close to hurricane status when she made landfall, maybe even just reached it. (she looked really organized for a tropical storm).

After this, not much will be going on for a week or so.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Too bad the storm surge is salt water, and that the ground is so dry and mangled it can't absorb all the rain. That's what happens when you clear a forest for farming and destroy the soil.

[beachinitnsc 0]

Hi Everyone. We moved to Charleston SC a yr ago. I'm a little nervous this yr about the possibility of a hurricane strike. Any idea of what the probability of Charleston taking a hurricane hit? I know the last big one to hit here was in '89' from Hugo. I think I should have stayed in Maryland. ha. Thanks for any replies.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

From the Google map, you look pretty safe. Check with NOAA's site forHurricane Predictions. Trust the USN, they seem to have lots of installations and I don't think they'd be there is it was a problem.

[un1 41]

Hi Everyone. We moved to Charleston SC a yr ago. I'm a little nervous this yr about the possibility of a hurricane strike. Any idea of what the probability of Charleston taking a hurricane hit? I know the last big one to hit here was in '89' from Hugo. I think I should have stayed in Maryland. ha. Thanks for any replies.

I'll provide my opinion (Though nonny moose is right, always be looking during the peak of the season: July-October). The chances aren't too high for one hitting Charleston, as the town that gets hit by hurricanes most in the US is Miami (which is where I think is the most likely to be hit this year). However the steering patterns show that Charleston has a way higher chance of being hit than Maryland. So I would prepare for one, look at the forecasts of all storms that are within this area (this year only, the steering patterns through the years are very different).

Please note that mother nature is hard to predict, and this is only the area the you should be concerned with, but still make sure to watch all storms through the peak of the year in case one makes a strange turn towards SC. Also don't become worried whenever a storm forms in the area (especially since your area has the very dangerous Cape Verde season in it), as depending on the time of the year the currents may steer the storm to Texas, Florida or right into you. I would only become worried once the storm starts turning northward, and when it becomes a hurricane, as the waters up north are usually too cold for tropical storms to stay tropical.

If anyone wants me to make a map like that for you, please ask. I can do them for any basin, however I will reject making it if there is a very little threat in your area.

Anyways, there is a typhoon out in the middle of the Pacific that is on the verge of exploding and crashing right into Japan at a relatively strong strength.

It's moving pretty slowly, so I'll post an update when I come back from the next segment of my camping trip in 5 days when it is bearing down on Japan.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Good grief! This year it sounds like Japan would be a good place to be from. So far this has been a crummy year for them.

[RipRap 4,400]

Latest from Ma-On

Big Trouble Ahead...

[Ocram's Razr 964]

What I never understood is why constantly rebuild flimsy structures?

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

What I never understood is why constantly rebuild flimsy structures?

We are infected with the idea of tents. Besides, what have the Japanese got for construction materials? Grass, paper, and some (imported) wood.

[RipRap 4,400]

Hmmm, my picture changes... See my last post for the latest...

[RipRap 4,400]

There is Hurricane Dora:

There Cindy:

Invest 90:

[Ocram's Razr 964]

That Dora cyclone looks like it will hit Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta. Good thing most of their infrastructure is mostly hurricane proof, unlike some projects.

  Edited July 25, 2011 by OcramSeattle  

[un1 41]

Thanks for posting updates 111222333444! Also your picture changes because they are Wunderground images that are centered automatically on the storm as it is now, you need to have a special album on a photo hosting service to make them work properly. (I have a Hurricanes album on my PB account)

Anyways, seems Ma-on has left Japan relatively unhurt, relatively low fatalities and only 25 million in damage (so far).

The tropics are pretty quiet now, with only invest 90L being the area of concern in the Atlantic, and 2 WPac depressions (that show no sign of being a major threat).

[un1 41]

Well, over the night invest 90L has developed quite a bit and it is looking like this storm (future Don, the name that replaced Dennis in 2005) will be the first threat to the US this year.

All the models seem convinced that the storm will hit Texas in 3-4 days.

The models are pretty out there with intensity, some don't even develop it into Don while one develops it into Major Hurricane Don.

Definitely a drought busting storm!

(top left quadrant is wind, top right is pressure, bottom left is sea surface temperatures and bottom right is precipitation)

For now invest 90l is at 30% chance of forming in the next 48 hours, I feel this should be up 20-30% more as most of the models have this forming within 24 hours.

[Easy Bakes 253]

Woder if thats what gave us the cloud cover here today.

[un1 41]

Woder if thats what gave us the cloud cover here today.

Nah, that's just a model forecast. If a category 3 storm was really bearing down on the US, it would be on the media everywhere...

But that is what this storm is looking like.

The models have shifted northward on a course more towards Corpus Christi with a few models here and there having the storm go up into Houston/Galveston.

It's developing quickly too, it is really close to tropical depression status. The NHC has it at an 80% chance of forming in the next 48 hours, but I think that is more likely 99%, they are just waiting for the hurricane hunters to confirm it meets the characteristics of a tropical cyclone.

The forecast is pretty out there, the storm is really small, making it easier for it to dodge the hostile conditions in the Gulf and explode into a large storm. There is some doubt as too if it can do that, so I'm thinking a storm similar to Dolly of the 2008 season just further north.

I leave you with a webcam picture of Cancun looking into the center of invest 90l, soon to be TD4/Don.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Boy, that can be hard lines on Galveston. The models seem to agree on the general path trend, and if it comes ashore anywhere along there as a Category 3 or stronger, we are likely to get a taste up here. We could use some rain, but that would probably altogether too much of a good thing.

[un1 41]

...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... (directly from the NHC)

Tropical Storm Don has formed this evening and currently has winds of 40mph and a pressure of 1000mb.

All the models have changed to taking this storm directly into Corpus Christi, Texas, again all with different intensity, leading the NHC to a conservative path with Don making landfall at 65mph.

I do not think Don will make landfall as a tropical storm. I still feel that we could see a category 1-3 storm make landfall, especially since this storm is very very (eerily) similar to 1970s Hurricane Celia.

Anyways, this storm is very small, meaning it is incredibly easy for it to have rapid changes in intensity, so anyone in the way should be watching NHC's 3 hour updates (starting sometime tonight or tomorrow).

Here's the extent of Don's TS force winds right now, he's a very very tiny storm (not something you would expect from a manly name like Don )!

Interesting thing to note today is that US congress made a proposal to cut hurricane research funding by 40%, however I bet that if Don makes landfall as a category 3 storm that is similar to Celia (ie. becomes a category 3 overnight and washes away all of Corpus Christi), that the bill will be changed to a funding increase of 40%.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

^ Don't bet on it. The U.S. is hard up to pay social security cheques next week. If the storm doesn't ease up in Washington, a lot of things will be defunded. The idea of cutting essential services to save money is an old Congressional trick. It is the height of political panic and stupidity. They should start by putting the White House on the block.

[hym 358]

First and foremost, this thread is not for discussion about political issues.

Second...

I do not think Don will make landfall as a tropical storm. I still feel that we could see a category 1-3 storm make landfall, especially since this storm is very very (eerily) similar to 1970s Hurricane Celia.

Anyways, this storm is very small, meaning it is incredibly easy for it to have rapid changes in intensity, so anyone in the way should be watching NHC's 3 hour updates (starting sometime tonight or tomorrow).

I highly suspect this storm will amount to nothing more than a strong wind and a little bit of rain. The storm has had an entire day to strengthen and it has weakened instead. It is suffering from wind sheer that is injecting massive amounts of dry air into the system; not only is this causing the storm to struggle to develop, it is robbing the storm of precious time it needs to strengthen into even a moderate tropical storm, much less a minor hurricane. The storm has all of about a day to turn into a hurricane, and meteorologists aren't seeing anything more than a veritable sea of dry air for it to cross before it gets to land, which doesn't bode well for its chances of strengthening. Meteorologists are actually hoping the storm will strengthen some, otherwise they are expecting it won't even be as powerful as a good thunderstorm.

[un1 41]

^ Don't bet on it. The U.S. is hard up to pay social security cheques next week. If the storm doesn't ease up in Washington, a lot of things will be defunded. The idea of cutting essential services to save money is an old Congressional trick. It is the height of political panic and stupidity. They should start by putting the White House on the block.

Hurricane research does actually have economical benefits.

I highly suspect this storm will amount to nothing more than a strong wind and a little bit of rain. The storm has had an entire day to strengthen and it has weakened instead. It is suffering from wind sheer that is injecting massive amounts of dry air into the system; not only is this causing the storm to struggle to develop, it is robbing the storm of precious time it needs to strengthen into even a moderate tropical storm, much less a minor hurricane. The storm has all of about a day to turn into a hurricane, and meteorologists aren't seeing anything more than a veritable sea of dry air for it to cross before it gets to land, which doesn't bode well for its chances of strengthening. Meteorologists are actually hoping the storm will strengthen some, otherwise they are expecting it won't even be as powerful as a good thunderstorm.

Don is going down as my least favourite storm to track. Due to it's small size and hostile conditions in the gulf, it's intensity is fluctuating very rapidly, making it nearly impossible to predict easily (so far nearly all of the NHC forecasts have been wrong). It seems to be following the diurnal pressure cycles very well, nearly falling apart in every DMIN (Diurnal pressure minimum; night) and nearly becoming a hurricane in every DMAX (Diurnal pressure maximum; day). However this DMAX it has built itself a nice anticyclone and is in a better environment in form of wind shear and dry air (especially now as it's core is covered completely by deep convection). As of now, I admit defeat to my forecast, but I feel the chance for a minimal hurricane is there. I don't think we will have a good idea of what this storm will bring until tomorrow, to see if it survives DMIN/gets stronger during DMIN. If it strengthens this DMIN, I think this storm could make landfall near/at hurricane strength. If it repeats what it did last night (fall apart), a 50mph, incredibly small storm is more likely.

It will make landfall at DMIN (early Saturday morning) so that will probably reduce its damage, but also its rain, which is very much needed right now and is the only good thing this storm is bringing. Currently all the models still point to just south of Corpus Christi, though landfall location will be determined tonight by how DMIN affects it. I'll have an update on how it did overnight during DMIN and my more conservative forecast tomorrow.

[RipRap 4,400]

Back to Some Real Updating:

Don (Which was Invest 90)

Nock-ten (Juaning):

Muifa (Kabayan):

Trouble Ahead...

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Seems like a bad beginning. More trouble in the Pacific which could be hard lines on Japan, which has had enough trouble this year. Nothing south of the equator so far.

[hym 358]

Don is going down as my least favourite storm to track. Due to it's small size and hostile conditions in the gulf, it's intensity is fluctuating very rapidly, making it nearly impossible to predict easily (so far nearly all of the NHC forecasts have been wrong).

Where is this rapid intensity fluctuation? This is the second day that its pressure readings have held almost constant. Wind speed has gone up some, but not enough to call rapid.

However this DMAX it has built itself a nice anticyclone and is in a better environment in form of wind shear and dry air (especially now as it's core is covered completely by deep convection).

I don't know whether the wind sheer is a continuing factor or not, but satellite imagery suggests Don is still sucking dry air on its way in.

As of now, I admit defeat to my forecast, but I feel the chance for a minimal hurricane is there. I don't think we will have a good idea of what this storm will bring until tomorrow, to see if it survives DMIN/gets stronger during DMIN. If it strengthens this DMIN, I think this storm could make landfall near/at hurricane strength. If it repeats what it did last night (fall apart), a 50mph, incredibly small storm is more likely.

Currently, the meteorologist reports to state emergency planners are suggesting it is unlikely to get near hurricane strength, and today is the second day that the computer models are giving it a 0% chance of hurricane formation.

It will make landfall at DMIN (early Saturday morning) so that will probably reduce its damage, but also its rain, which is very much needed right now and is the only good thing this storm is bringing. Currently all the models still point to just south of Corpus Christi, though landfall location will be determined tonight by how DMIN affects it. I'll have an update on how it did overnight during DMIN and my more conservative forecast tomorrow.

The models are currently suggesting that it will hit somewhere midway between Corpus Christi and Brownsville.

[un1 41]

Nothing south of the equator so far.

Nah, Southern Hemisphere cyclone season is November-May. The only totally notable storm this year was Yasi.

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF DON APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST... (directly from the NHC)

Here's a nice funktop picture of the blob known as Don.

Don sustained itself overnight, but went quite a bit faster so I doubt it will get past 55mph winds. It is expected to make landfall in Corpus Christi in 12 hours, but due to the fact that the center of the storm isn't fully covered in convection (it is getting pulled to the north) most of the rain will occur in South Texas south of Corpus Christi.

The latest Brownsville radar imagery shows the center not being in the main part of the storm itself and showing most of the rain being far south, thus limiting the rain to South Texas (other than the occasional popup thunderstorm in the north).

The rain isn't too heavy so this storm should be a good way to start ending a drought.

Looking ahead, we have our first Cape Verde invest (invest 91L) which is expected to develop into Emily. Most of the intensity models take her up to major hurricane strength before turning northward. After that turn the models aren't in great agreement of where she will head. Personally I think that she will go west through the Caribbean as even a slight 1mph slower/faster for the next 5 days will make Emily miss the trough and make her head towards Mexico.

The NHC gives 91L a 30% chance of developing in the next 48 hours, which I agree with.

Where is this rapid intensity fluctuation? This is the second day that its pressure readings have held almost constant. Wind speed has gone up some, but not enough to call rapid.

The NHC doesn't post it in their advisories since they know it's only temporary to the night/day. Though Don did actually strengthen last night during DMIN.

I don't know whether the wind sheer is a continuing factor or not, but satellite imagery suggests Don is still sucking dry air on its way in.

Wind shear is still partially shearing itself south (which is part of the reason the center is north of the main area of convection). Though not by much, shear is limiting any large rapid intensification attempts.

  Edited July 29, 2011 by hym  
Combining double posts.

[Easy Bakes 253]

We need the rain

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

We need the rain

Seems that's what you got. Don fizzled out over dry ground.

[Easy Bakes 253]

figured it would as it was not a strong storm to begin with.

no effects at all up in dallas.

[RipRap 4,400]

...So 'Don' didn't do anything in Dallas?

Anyways, Muifa is heading straight to Okinawa as a Category 5 typhoon.