2011 Hurricane Season

[un1 41]

Tomorrow/today (depending where you live) is the start of the hurricane season. The models are predicting aren't predicting a La Nina season (high amounts of activity, including 2010) or an El Nino season (lower amounts of activity, including 2009) but a neutral year. A neutral year, being relatively unpredictable means that nearly anything can happen (low activity years and high activity). The current prediction average is 17 (100 year average is 11) named storms, 9 hurricanes (100 year average is 6) and 5 major hurricanes (100 year average is 2) mainly due to the above average sea surface temperatures. The last neutral hurricane season was 2005 (very infamous for anyone living near the gulf coat).

A few analogue years have been picked for this hurricane season (years that could be similar to 2011) and luckily 2005 isn't on the list. The list contains years with quite a bit of US hurricane hits, including 2008, 2004 and 1999. In fact there is a 70%+ chance of a major hurricane (category 3 or more) hitting the US. There hasn't been a major hurricane landfall in the US since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

Accuweather has created a nice map of areas that are in danger from this upcoming season. If you are pretty much in a frequently hurricane hit region, I would suggest being prepared for one (especially if you live in/near a higher area of concern).

Early season would be June-July and Mid-Late season would be August-October.

This thread will be pretty much a thread where I (or anyone, I'm going on a trip in July and August and wont be able to update easily so any one who wants to take over can) post information. I will also try to post information on any large storm that is heading to populated areas all over the world. (I debated about starting this thread a few days ago when Typhoon Songda was heading for Japan) Pretty much, this year will be pretty crazy, especially if you live in a frequently hit area. So be prepared to get hit and always know what to do when you have to evacuate!

Here is a list of names if anyone is curious:

This is the same list as 2005 without Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Stan.

During the season I will refer to invests and tropical waves. Invests are storms that the NHC is "investing" in to become a storm (rarely does, but there is atleast a 10% chance of it becoming one). A tropical wave is a storm that has a decent chance of becoming a hurricane if in the right locations. If so the NHC will "invest" in it and create special forecasts for them and publish model data and all that.

As of right now there is 1 invest and one tropical wave that I feel could become a tropical storm (and it's only June 1st!).

The invest is just off the coast of the Carolinas and the models seem to take it directly into Florida while it is developing to become a tropical storm. There is a relatively low chance it will become Tropical Storm Arlene on it's way to Florida, but it is possible.

There is also a tropical wave that has a high chance (I feel) of becoming Tropical Storm Arlene. It is currently in the south-west Caribbean Sea and models have it possibly becoming Hurricane Arlene within the next 8 days (there is a high chance that it will be unable to retain the hurricane intensity past Cuba however). The models also show it taking an eerily similar track to Tropical Storm Arlene of 2005.

I'll post an update when something happens.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

So who is surprised? The earth is in a warming period, including the oceans. This means that the hurricane pump is well primed. Typhoons and cyclones too.

The southern and eastern coasts are going to take a terrible battering this year, and this will be only the first of many to come. There is too much denial of the geologic effects that are obvious to anyone who knows anything about geology, history, and the weather.

[un1 41]

So who is surprised? The earth is in a warming period, including the oceans. This means that the hurricane pump is well primed. Typhoons and cyclones too.

A study a while back actually showed that warming of the planet increases the intensity of storms and possibly could reduce the number. If I remember correctly, it's because the world doesn't need to bring as much heat to the arctic so there's less storms, the extra heat just makes storms a lot bigger. It's not a good thing, larger storms are way more destructive even if they are only classified as tropical storms. Huge storms usually retain their size (often get bigger too) as they get smaller so the surge and the radius of winds gets bigger causing more devastation and it takes up more moisture and causes more torrential rain inland. A closer to home example of this is Hurricane Igor which became the largest Atlantic hurricane ever over Newfoundland last year when it came through. Most of the damage was rain related and storm surge related. The winds had a minimal effect on the island (the entire island had tropical storm force winds though).

There is too much denial of the geologic effects that are obvious to anyone who knows anything about geology, history, and the weather.

Sadly true, some people just can't imagine another hurricane hitting them and ruining their lives, but it happens every 10-20 years in some places. Even every 2 years in some of the more unlucky places (though, those places are much, much more prepared. I think Cuba even has true mandatory evacuations where you get no option but to go somewhere else).

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

If we get a Heinrich Event, there is a good chance that the Gulf stream will become a circular current in the Gulf. This will change the whole Atlantic climate, and Europe will freeze. Other effects will also mess up the Atlantic sea floor from stuff dropped by the bergy bits when they melt, and the decreased salinity in the oceans may cause other currents to shift. Life could be interesting in the next century or so.

[FreewayofFlight 41]

Lucky for me I'm moving to Myrtle Beach, SC later this month. I'm not sure when the last storm struck the Carolinas, but the last two I lived through was a tropical storm and a weak Category 1 Hurricane. The last major hurricane I witnessed was Hurricane Floyd and Hurricane Fran when I was living in Ft. Bragg, NC. Both were Category 3 when they arrived in Fayetteville.

[un1 41]

Lucky for me I'm moving to Myrtle Beach, SC later this month. I'm not sure when the last storm struck the Carolinas, but the last two I lived through was a tropical storm and a weak Category 1 Hurricane. The last major hurricane I witnessed was Hurricane Floyd and Hurricane Fran when I was living in Ft. Bragg, NC. Both were Category 3 when they arrived in Fayetteville.

The last major hurricane to make landfall (make landfall as category 3+ strength) in the South Carolina area was Hurricane Fran in 1996. The last hurricane to make landfall in the Carolinas was Hurricane Charley (the same one that made landfall in Florida at category 4 strength) in 2004. The Carolinas and Savannah are way overdue for a hit and I would expect one this year. The last major hurricane to hit Myrtle Beach was Hurricane Hazel in 1954. Charley hit Myrtle Beach directly in 2004. One of the analogue years (1999) actually had 3 hurricanes hitting the Carolinas so be prepared! (though I wouldn't expect more than 2 to hit directly, but I think many will brush the Carolinas from just off the coast)

Life could be interesting in the next century or so.

No doubt about that!

[FreewayofFlight 41]

Lucky for me I'm moving to Myrtle Beach, SC later this month. I'm not sure when the last storm struck the Carolinas, but the last two I lived through was a tropical storm and a weak Category 1 Hurricane. The last major hurricane I witnessed was Hurricane Floyd and Hurricane Fran when I was living in Ft. Bragg, NC. Both were Category 3 when they arrived in Fayetteville.

The last major hurricane to make landfall (make landfall as category 3+ strength) in the South Carolina area was Hurricane Fran in 1996. The last hurricane to make landfall in the Carolinas was Hurricane Charley (the same one that made landfall in Florida at category 4 strength) in 2004. The Carolinas and Savannah are way overdue for a hit and I would expect one this year. The last major hurricane to hit Myrtle Beach was Hurricane Hazel in 1954. Charley hit Myrtle Beach directly in 2004. One of the analogue years (1999) actually had 3 hurricanes hitting the Carolinas so be prepared! (though I wouldn't expect more than 2 to hit directly, but I think many will brush the Carolinas from just off the coast)

Life could be interesting in the next century or so.

No doubt about that!

Don't forget Hurricane Hugo in 1989.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Lucky for me I'm moving to Myrtle Beach, SC later this month. I'm not sure when the last storm struck the Carolinas, but the last two I lived through was a tropical storm and a weak Category 1 Hurricane. The last major hurricane I witnessed was Hurricane Floyd and Hurricane Fran when I was living in Ft. Bragg, NC. Both were Category 3 when they arrived in Fayetteville.

I suspect you are in for a stormy summer. Why leave beautiful Kent and go so far to escape to the sea? Whatever happened to vacations along the Cornish coast?

[Jazzmaster 716]

I live in Florida and I am not entirely sure what to make of this.

On one hand, I 'feel' like it'll be a pretty active season because the winter was so dreadful, and the spring tornado season was quite formidable as well. But this is all just a 'feeling'.

On the other hand, they come out with these ghastly estimates every year, and they're either 'over-predicting' or most of the storms just spin off into the sea and dissipate.

Still, the Tampa Bay Area is long overdue for a powerful hurricane event. I can never knock people for staying over-prepared. As the events in Japan earlier this year demonstrated there is no such thing as over-prepared.

[un1 41]

On the other hand, they come out with these ghastly estimates every year, and they're either 'over-predicting' or most of the storms just spin off into the sea and dissipate.

Most of the predictions last year did come true, hurricane wise it was 3rd most active year on record (behind 1995 and 2005). Last year there was a high pressure system directly over the US making most Cape Verde hurricanes barely miss the US and hit Canada instead. This year that pressure system is over Canada and will instead push the Cape Verde storms into the US (around the Carolinas).

Still, the Tampa Bay Area is long overdue for a powerful hurricane event. I can never knock people for staying over-prepared. As the events in Japan earlier this year demonstrated there is no such thing as over-prepared.

Tampa Bay isn't an overly hurricane prone area, but when a storm does hit it will probably be big just because of the location of Tampa Bay.

[FreewayofFlight 41]

Lucky for me I'm moving to Myrtle Beach, SC later this month. I'm not sure when the last storm struck the Carolinas, but the last two I lived through was a tropical storm and a weak Category 1 Hurricane. The last major hurricane I witnessed was Hurricane Floyd and Hurricane Fran when I was living in Ft. Bragg, NC. Both were Category 3 when they arrived in Fayetteville.

I suspect you are in for a stormy summer. Why leave beautiful Kent and go so far to escape to the sea? Whatever happened to vacations along the Cornish coast?

My dad's side is mainly clustered in the Carolinas, plus I'd like to eventually get some higher education.

Ohio has gotten visited by hurricanes, the remnants of Hurricane Ike roared through here knocking out power for a few days. I haven't roughed out a serious hurricane since Fran and Floyd.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

What is the water temperature in Tampa Bay as opposed to the last 10 years? Your local met office should have the data. If you are seeing a warming trend, the engine is getting hotter and you should be prepared.

[un1 41]

It has been a while hasn't it? Anyways some news to bring, the first tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific has formed! Say hello to Tropical Storm Adrian! As for the two storms I mentioned in the first post, the tropical wave in the Caribbean eventually did become Invest 94L and had a 50% chance of formation yesterday but rapidly dissipated overnight and now it is barely alive.

However Adrian is looking very good. The NHC has given it a 60% percent chance of rapid intensification to hurricane status, which is nearly unheard of this early in the season. One can only wonder what this will mean in the future. The track of Adrian keeps it out at sea and no one will be affected by it, but it is forecasted to become a category 2 hurricane by Friday.

I'll post an update when Adrian does something that is remotely interesting.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

So off it goes across the Pacific, picking up more energy and moisture as it goes. It is going to be a bad Typhoon season.

I really think global warming is now past the tipping point, and that nature is behaving normally for the conditions.

[un1 41]

It is going to be a bad Typhoon season.

It might be, for landfalls at high intensity only though, since it is a neutral year it's going to be an average season but the extra 1C of temperature will make it above average.

As for Adrian it has finally been promoted to hurricane status. NHC still says it has a good chance of rapid intensification, it's eye even has the sign that it will rapidly intensify soon. There's a tropical storm watch for Mexico in case it doesn't follow it's current track and goes directly into Mexico or it rapidly intensifies to a huge storm and the winds can reach the coast. Both are pretty unlikely.

Actually some models show signs of Adrian becoming a category 3 hurricane before dieing out.

[un1 41]

Aaand it is a major hurricane! Rapid intensification is very rare at this time of year however Adrian seems to have done just that. I can only think about how many storms will explode only 20 miles off the coast this year...

The eyewall is starting to fall apart because of cold water and dry air in the atmosphere north of it so it will probably rapidly fall apart now. As someone on one of my hurricane forums said "Since it is staying away from human lives you can easily root for it to become huge", that is happily what happened, it became huge and is turning out to sea.

The NHC seems to agree that it has hit it's peak intensity.

Once Adrian dies off the tropics are expected to remain pretty quiet for the next week or so.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

The shape of things to come. If it had been in the Atlantic it would be a Category 3 or 4 at least by now. The waters are warmer, so it wouldn't be likely to dissapate until it got further north, closer to the annual ice berg parade.

Heaven only knows where it would have gone, but I hope the Great Wall of New Orleans is finished. I was in the Big Easy several decades ago and I think it is one of the greatest cities on the continent.

[un1 41]

The shape of things to come. If it had been in the Atlantic it would be a Category 3 or 4 at least by now. The waters are warmer, so it wouldn't be likely to dissapate until it got further north, closer to the annual ice berg parade.

Adrian didn't stop after my last update (surprisingly), it got up to category 4 strength with 140mph winds last night.

If it had a bit more warm water, it would be a category 5 storm right now.

The average water temperature of the tropical Atlantic is higher on average, but in the location where Adrian was at one point was actually the hottest water in the western hemisphere. Also the Atlantic is much more hostile in terms of wind shear and dry air, however had Adrian formed and taken on his annular hurricane shape (like he did in the Pacific), he probably could've gotten to category 3 strength. It's only because of the fact Adrian is annular that he became a category 4 hurricane in an environment of lots of dry air and cooler SSTs. It just shows how unpredictable hurricanes are (even the NHC predicted a peak of 110mph winds rather than 140mph).

Heaven only knows where it would have gone, but I hope the Great Wall of New Orleans is finished. I was in the Big Easy several decades ago and I think it is one of the greatest cities on the continent.

If it had formed in the Caribbean (which is the only location that storms can form right now), it would've either gone into Cuba and then South Florida or into Texas (models can't really pick a spot). The subtropical jet that is over Cuba would've completely destroyed the storm, but if it had been annular at the time it crossed the jet it might have been able to survive and re-intesify over the Gulf of Mexico (if it was heading for Texas). Once again, annular storms in neutral years are completely impossible to predict, so I could be completely wrong and the storm would've hit Colombia instead.

[FreewayofFlight 41]

I wonder if it were possible for a hurricane in the Pacific to make landfall in Southern California.

[Msprintz 25]

I wonder if it were possible for a hurricane in the Pacific to make landfall in Southern California.

It's entirely possible, just extremely rare to see. Hurricanes have looped back into Baja before, so I'm sure a SoCal hit wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities.

[un1 41]

California is a bit far north to be hit by hurricanes, I only know of it happening once actually and even then the storm lost all tropical characteristics and was simply a remnant by the time it go there.

It still caused devastating damage in California because of the heavy rains.

[CaptainAmerica 1]

California has enough to worry about with mudslides,fires, and earthquakes! [and the budget }

Interesting thread, I had been told that it was going to be a big year in hurricanes, because of all the tornado action in the US this year. Is there any correlation? Tornado season kind of leads into Hurricane season?

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Once you get away from the oceans, weather is partly controlled by orographic features. You can't separate the weather into neat compartments, but only talk probabilities. The model is too large with far too many variables to state anything about weather categorically. It is a natural phenomenon, and while we can complain about it, there is little we can do except grin and bear it.

The general weather is known in each area where there are human settlements. If you live in a tropical area on the coast expect heavy storms and hurricanes; if you live in the great central plains of North America, expect thunderstorms and super cells that spawn tornadoes; and so on.

The current upswing in atmospheric activity is due to the current global warming, which has actually been going on since the end of the last ice age, so around ten to twelve thousand years. It is just that the effects are accelerating now, and the tipping point has been passed. The earth has done this many times in the past as shown by the various strata that can be demonstrated at your local science museum. The northern and southern regions of the planet are heading into yet another tropical phase and the torrid zone will probably become uninhabitable.

As the ice caps melt and the oceans deepen and warm up, there will be a serious release of methane, which makes carbon dioxide look like a weak sister when it comes to green-house gasses. There is nothing we can do about it except cope with it, or leave. The chances of leaving anytime soon are slim to none, so it is going to be a case of find the means to live with it. I expect a lot of people are going to die before the end of this century due to the climate change and the disappearance of coastal lands. If man won't control himself nature will do it for him.

  Edited June 12, 2011 by A Nonny Moose  

[un1 41]

Interesting thread, I had been told that it was going to be a big year in hurricanes, because of all the tornado action in the US this year. Is there any correlation? Tornado season kind of leads into Hurricane season?

If history is any way to predict seasons (or atleast a good indicator), in the years where there has been many bad US hits, there were severe droughts (which you can see this year), an active tornado season (also occurring this year) and a very cold Gulf of Guinea (this year it's the coldest since 2005). Put all of those together you get a pretty bad year.

Another thing that I feel predicts a bad season this year is because of the drought in Florida. Since Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades require tropical rain (from hurricanes or just little waves), a drought can be used to predict a bad year for Floridan landfalls.

You can't separate the weather into neat compartments, but only talk probabilities. The model is too large with far too many variables to state anything about weather categorically. It is a natural phenomenon, and while we can complain about it, there is little we can do except grin and bear it.

Well said.

I expect a lot of people are going to die before the end of this century due to the climate change and the disappearance of coastal lands. If man won't control himself nature will do it for him.

Also true, however my personal doomsday theory has us killing ourselves before nature does it for us. (it still has climate change as a main factor, but oil, food, water and money are the primary focus)

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

I expect a lot of people are going to die before the end of this century due to the climate change and the disappearance of coastal lands. If man won't control himself nature will do it for him.

Also true, however my personal doomsday theory has us killing ourselves before nature does it for us. (it still has climate change as a main factor, but oil, food, water and money are the primary focus)

Perhaps, but all this will be exacerbated as the Hind goes into a water crisis and Bangladesh is submerged. I suspect this will lead to a major volkerwandrung (can't think of a good English word that says it). There are over a billion people involved and I suspect the next coupld of decades will see this. A nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India may kick off Armageddon world wide if cooler heads fail to prevail.

It is all going to be over land and "lebens raum".

[un1 41]

Well it's time for another update...sorry it's been a while, I've been getting ready for my exams and my sisters birthday got in the way of me posting updates for Beatriz. Anyways, I've got 3 basins to talk about today!

Eastern Pacific

Hurricane Beatriz made landfall/brushed the coast of Mexico yesterday as a category 1 hurricane with 90mph winds. Confirmed death toll is 3 so far and is likely to go higher. Damage is so far unknown. Beatriz has since dissipated over the mountains of Mexico.

(Certainly not as pretty as Adrian at that strength )

Western Pacific

Tropical Storm Meari got named yesterday and is heading towards Taiwan. Expected to intensify into a typhoon before landfall, will have more on this storm later.

Atlantic

Nothing is going on in this basin still, but today one of the models (the GFS model) showed something I figured I would talk about today.

Yes, that is an organized low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico in 7 days. If that storm does indeed form (as many models show) it will be named Arlene for the first storm in the Atlantic hurricane season. The GFS shows it being a 60-70mph tropical storm at that point heading for Corpus Christi, Texas in about 9 days. Of course, this can be totally wrong, but you never know, lots of the models say it will happen. We'll see what happens in a few days when a tropical wave arrives in the Western Caribbean (where this storm should start forming).

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Well, things are heating up, literally.

Here in mid-continent we've been having some active weather, but the Great Lakes moderate a lot of it. The eastern shore of Lake Huron is about 20 Km from where I am sitting, and the robins are chirping away, so nothing for a while. TS are predicted and we had a nasty one last evening.

Currently a nice even medium overcast with some cumulus activity beneath it. No signs of cumulo-nimbus, but I am on the east side of the building, so probably wouldn't see it coming, since most things arrive on a westerly vector.

[un1 41]

Well, things are heating up, literally.

Here in mid-continent we've been having some active weather, but the Great Lakes moderate a lot of it. The eastern shore of Lake Huron is about 20 Km from where I am sitting, and the robins are chirping away, so nothing for a while. TS are predicted and we had a nasty one last evening.

Currently a nice even medium overcast with some cumulus activity beneath it. No signs of cumulo-nimbus, but I am on the east side of the building, so probably wouldn't see it coming, since most things arrive on a westerly vector.

You might like this blog post:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1831

Anyways, pretty much all models are in agreement that there will be a TS in the Gulf in a few days. The tropical wave that will (maybe) become Arlene is currently in the western Caribbean.

[un1 41]

Well, the Atlantic seems to be moving forward with some activity (finally?). The models were right about the storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico, but not on it's track.

This is what the models are saying now:

(Yes it's been called Invest 95L)

I also left the intensity models on the picture, the SHIPS shows tropical storm Arlene making landfall with 45mph winds after peaking at 55mph in 24 hours.

The NHC gave it a 90% chance of developing into Tropical Depression 1 an hour ago.

Here's what the NHC says about this storm:

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS ABLE TO

LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO

DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR

DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF

THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS

IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE

EAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ

SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT

OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD

CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Looks like the Atlantic is just about to get started!

[un1 41]

Well this came really quickly...

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...

Still heading to Mexico, but jumped from invest to TS in barely 4 hours (which is semi-impressive itself). Right now at 40mph winds, but it is expected to peak at 60mph winds, but I think that it could get a bit higher.

As odd as this might seem, this storm is actually a blessing for extreme south Texas and Mexico, who are both suffering from worst droughts in a long time. Arlene will gladly bring them rain.