2008 Hurricane Season

[altestic172 0]

Tropical storm Bertha in Eastern Atlantic formed from an African wave designated "92L" last Monday. Since then, it has formed into a 50 mph tropical storm and is currently moving to the WNW at 21 MPH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145015.shtml?5day?large#contents

Could impact Florida or the East Coast by 7-10 days. It's still wait and see.

[Wrightguy0 40]

this should be in current events

But it's neat, Keep updating us on the movement of this storm

[Haljackey 17,398]

Bertha eh? With all the warm waters reported on its predicted route, the storm could be renamed "Big-Bertha"!

[un1 41]

Continuing what haljackey said, and by the time it does get to Florida or the East Coast it probably will be a Category 5 Hurricane by then. Then it will be the first major hurricane of 2008 or is it the first tropical storm of 2008 anyways...??

[Voar Tok 4]

It couldn't be the first tropical storm of 2008 since it's named Bertha. They don't name anything weaker than tropical storms, so since we're on Bertha, that would mean it's the second one this year.

[Red1530 1]

Tropical storm Arthur formed back in May near Belize. I have to disagree with the idea that Bertha will become a Category 5 when it comes near the East Coast. Most likely it will be either a strong Category 1 or a weak Category 2 when it approaches the East Coast.

[confused04 14]

It's all dependent on how strong the trough is that is forecast to be pushing off the east coast soon. If the trough weakens as a few models have suggested, Bertha will not recurve out. If the trough remains strong, then the storm will harmlessly push pass the coast and either hit Bermuda or remain safely between the Coast and Bermuda. Intensity forecasts are notoriously pointless past 72 hours so forecasting what it will be when it reaches the coast is similarly pointless. If there is a threat to the US coast, we have 7-10 days before Bertha has any impact. Its currently forecast to reach Category 1 in the next few days... its is possible that the trough will weaken it to a tropical storm or depression or it might have little to no affect. It is not out of the question for Bertha to become a major hurricane to hit the United States. As anyone who was tracking Hurricane Charley back in 2004 knows, intensities can rapidly change within just 3 hours. Charley was forecast to make landfall at around 110 mph and at the last moment intensified to 145 mph within just 6 horus, far higher than intensity forecasts had called for. As usual, all that can be done at this point is to monitor the storm.

[____----____ 37]

fish storm, it's gonna hook, book it. Nice analysis btw confused, you a member of easternuswx btw?

[Hahayoudied 3]

I think the people on the coast should prepare for the storm, or evacuvate from the coast.

[Red1530 1]

Originally posted by: Hahayoudied I think the people on the coast should prepare for the storm, or evacuvate from the coast.quote>

It is way too early to evacuate the East Cost even if it was heading to the East Coast.  Most models curently have the storm heading to Bermuda and  Hurricane Bertha is now a Category 3 hurricane!  By becoming a Category 3 storm it is now considered a major hurricane.  The last time we had a major hurricane this early in the season was 2005 and we all remember what the season was like.

[sedimenjerry 1]

woah guys

do none of you watch the weather channel? its forcasted to miss bermuda to the east.

it will be nowhere near the coast and probably won't affect waves.

the bermuda high is known for turning storms going west over 90 degrees to the north and then to the NE.

whats surprising is that the storm developed near cape verde. usually cape verde season isnt until august and september.

there was another bertha in july of 98 i beilve. it was father south and escaped the bermuda high and ended up at the us .

[Micah 16]

Can on Off-Topic moderator please move this to the CE forum? It just makes sense.

[un1 41]

Isn`t it expected to hit Florida now?? Isn`t it Category 2 now?? I think I heard these on CNN but I`m not sure. Anyways it isn`t supposed top make landfall until Friday so it can change it`s path and go directly through the Gulf of Mexico. Then it would be a Category 5!!

[Red1530 1]

Originally posted by: un1 Isn`t it expected to hit Florida now?? Isn`t it Category 2 now?? I think I heard these on CNN but I`m not sure. Anyways it isn`t supposed top make landfall until Friday so it can change it`s path and go directly through the Gulf of Mexico. Then it would be a Category 5!!quote>

You are way off on your information.  At the 2100 UTC report on July 9 it was a Category 2 storm and the island of Bermuda is at the western edge of the zone of uncertainty. 

[confused04 14]

Originally posted by: sedimenjerry woah guys

do none of you watch the weather channel? its forcasted to miss bermuda to the east.

it will be nowhere near the coast and probably won't affect waves.

the bermuda high is known for turning storms going west over 90 degrees to the north and then to the NE.

whats surprising is that the storm developed near cape verde. usually cape verde season isnt until august and september.

there was another bertha in july of 98 i beilve. it was father south and escaped the bermuda high and ended up at the us .quote>

Forecasts do change every 6 hours according to new advisories and model runs by the National Hurricane Center so what was forecasted even 12 hours ago is old and thus must be treated that way. At the time the people above posted, there was a possibility it would hit the US...

However, the very explosive growth of Bertha in just a few advisories nullified much of the forecasts. As the storm intensified and grew, it also grew in height and its upper level circulation could "feel" the approaching trough curving it more north than originally forecast. As stated earlier, intensity forecasts are notorious for being incorrect. None of the models or official forecasts saw a Category 4 storm.

Now as we're all very well aware of, the storm is no longer on any path to affect pretty much anything. Surf on the East coast will be up in about 5 days so if you're surfing, have fun. There is a chance of a brush by maritime Canada, but well off and those guys are used to these situations.

Again, no threat to the US. The tropics otherwise are very quiet. The good news about this storm is that the models were capable of predicting a tropical low 5 days in advance. Go models

[Stormblades 0]

Originally posted by: un1 Isn't it expected to hit Florida now?? Isn't it Category 2 now?? I think I heard these on CNN but I'm not sure. Anyways it isn`t supposed top make landfall until Friday so it can change it`s path and go directly through the Gulf of Mexico. Then it would be a Category 5!!quote>

You do know that Cat. 5 storms are actually extremely rare (2005 season with Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma was the exceedingly rare exception) and a Cat. 5 in July is nearly unprecedented. Currently, last known intensity is Cat. 2, and is also expected to turn to the north.

[Haljackey 17,398]

Anything classified a category 3 and over is a major hurricane. If Bertha ever hits this mark, then it may be renamed Big-Bertha, even though it may be minor to the 2005 season, 2005 was a wild exception.

[Jazzmaster 716]

Originally posted by: haljackey Anything classified a category 3 and over is a major hurricane. If Bertha ever hits this mark, then it may be renamed Big-Bertha, even though it may be minor to the 2005 season, 2005 was a wild exception.quote>

You're damn right is was an exception.  Living in Florida, I found myself waking up every day to them reporting tropical activity, and I'd see about an average of 1 tropical storm/hurricane a week.  So yeah, not trying to brag about living in Florida all the time (things like this are a reason not too, lol), but I've seen enough of these to know:

1.)Don't rely on forecasts all the time, especially this far out.  They were saying it'd be nothing big but it became a category 3 major storm in less than 24 hours.

2.)Don't pay attention to the cone all the time.  Not only does it tend to shift, but the line in the middle isn't something to base your thoughts off of, if you don't believe me look up Hurricane Charley.

3.)An old family saying of mine: "Expect the best, prepare for the worst".  Again, as in Hurricane Charley, I recall so many people turning down our offers to stay with us to ride out the storm, rather, they wanted to go to Orlando etc.  Hours later, we were getting calls about their hotel lobby being ripped to shreds by a tornado.  So you see, don't expect hell, but don't put away the weather radio and Spaghettio's either.

---

So, while we may have dodged this one, do bear in mind that while it's not over yet, we still have months left in the season, and aren't anywhere near the height of it yet.

[Stormblades 0]

Just a note, Bertha is now a Category 1.

[Red1530 1]

 As of the July 13, 1500 UTC report, Bertha is now a tropical storm.

[sedimenjerry 1]

its now a hurricane again

[Mikeaut1 261]

Both the Atlantic and the Pacific are really active right now. There is Fausto in the Pacific right now, which is a full blown hurricane. The Atlantic is quite active right now... there is another depression forming right around the Cape Verdes today, the exact area where Bertha formed a few weeks ago. Funny, the NHC estimated a lower than average to average active season this year. As of right now it's quite active.

If you don't mind, I'm going to rename this whole topic as "2008 Hurricane Season" so we won't have to create a new thread every time a new hurricane forms.

[confused04 14]

Tropical Storm Cristobal is one of those very common "tail-end-of-a-stalled-coldfront" kinda tropical storms that forms often and early mirroring MANY hurricanes. Often a cold front will push off the coast but lacks the energy to keep going and there's just a bit of a stalled disturbance off the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Over a period of a few days to a week, this can organize into what we see now. Generally these are relatively weak or don't hit land, or both. Weak because they sit over the same spot for long periods of time churning up the waters and sapping it of heat potential. Second, they sometimes run into things very very quickly, sometimes within 6 hours of being named and in a few rare cases aren't even named until the post season analysis. And another common thing to occur is that it just leaves the coast through a variety of mechanisms, likely another cold front.

Yesterday, Delmarva got one of the extreme outer bands that dumped a lot of rain in a short period of time. Cooled us off for like 25 seconds before the heat was turned back on.

Tropical Storm Dolly

Residents of Texas need to be paying very close attention to Dolly. Although it has struck land, (the Yucatan), it has re-emerged only very slightly weakened. The Yucatan is very low and very moist and one of the areas where tropical storms and hurricanes can survive very relatively unscathed and still prove problematic for the coasts on the other side. The storm is over decently warm water, and shear is supposed to be pretty low. Right now winds are at 50 mph and likely to intensify. This will likely become a hurricane and has the potential of becoming a major hurricane before possibly making landfall in Southern Texas around the Corpus Christi area. Still, as pointed out, forecasts can change rapidly so just to be safe, all interests in Texas and northern Mexico should be watching out.

Oh by the way. The physically larger and stronger this storm gets, expect a proportional increase in gas prices.

[sedimenjerry 1]

Oh by the way. The physically larger and stronger this storm gets, expect a proportional increase in gas prices.quote>

 

I'm glad you mentioned this. Gas companies are always looking to raise prices. Dolly may prove to actually cause some problems to refineires though.

[confused04 14]

Hurricane Warnings have been posted from Brownsville, TX to Port O'Connor, TX. Mexico has issued its own Hurricane warnings from the US border to Rio San Fernando. This includes Corpus Christi and obviously Brownsville. Good news is that this soon-to-be-hurricane will make landfall in very unpopulated area of Texas (some 400 people live in one county).

[sedimenjerry 1]

^ The Brownsville-McAllen area is well populated however. But if the hurricane does go North then they will not get hit by that punishing NE quadrant.

[zzazzmatazz 3]

It is now forcasted to make landfall directly east of Brownsville, and currently it is still a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds of 70mph....but it is expected to upgrade into a category 1 hurricane by nightfall today

[confused04 14]

The Forecast discussion by the NWS has indicated very favorable conditions for moderate intensification. Convection has increased as well as developing eyewall, low shear, and favorable upper level conditions to promote intensification. They have gone a little above guidance and have forecast a landfall of 80 knots (92 mph), just shy of Category 2 so its not entirely implausible that Dolly will not just be a Hurricane, but a category 2. This is not likely, but not impossible. Forward momentum has decreased from 17 mph from last night to 10 mph giving it more time over open waters.

The landfall site has shifted south just a little bit to around the US, Mexico border. Rainfall estimates are between 6 to 10 inches with 15 in isolated areas.

EDIT:

Hurricane Dolly got its act together and is now a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds at 100 mph. Its continual slowdown and a rightward shift (to the north) allowed it to strengthen. Landfall is JUST north of South Padre Island.

[sedimenjerry 1]

Its interesting how the hurricane never turned to the west as sharp as they predicted.

[Easy Bakes 253]

Earlier today Southwest canceled all their flights to Galveston and Harlingen.

Edit: Made land fall 35 Miles N of Brownsville. 3:30 Eastern time. As  a cat 2.

As of 4:50 Eastern  eyewall made ladnfall.

All power is reported out on S. Padre Island while power lines and power poles are down in Brownsville, Harlingen, and Port Isabel.