American 2008 Election

[MrCinatit 30]

Sorry to go off tangent here, but I had to look up something to cure my curiosity, and came up with some mildly interesting but completely inconclusive conclusions.

I had been wondering this: While we know the winners of each party, which party has garnered the most interest? Are more people voting in the Democratic primaries, or the Republican primaries?

The below is extremely unofficial. The totals only reflect the total votes of the top vote getter per party in each primary. In addition, I am only counting states which have had both primaries. For instance, West Virginia has had the Republican primary, but the Democratic primary is not until later.

SO:

State          dem                       rep

MO           405,000                 194.000

AK                    301                      5.000

CA         2,132,000                 985,000

AZ             201,000                 227,000

TN            332,000                 189,000

UT             70,000                  255,000

CO            79,000                    33,000

MN           111,000                  25,000

CT           179,000                  78,000

GA           700.000               326,000

ND             11,000                   3,000

NJ           602,000               310,000

MA           704.000               255,000

AL           302,000               230,000

OK          228,000               122,000

NY         1,003,000             310,000

DE             51,000                22,000

AR           206,000             130,000

IL         1,301,000 

[panthersimcity4 162]

Originally posted by: Barbarossa Mitt Romney has dropped out of the race.

Link

Barbarossaquote>

Buahahaha...

One less potential "conservative" as president

[krbe 193]

Originally posted by: MrCinatit  [...]

Anyway, I found the results pretty fascinating. It appears that, right now, the democrats are coming out a lot heavier than the republicans - almost 2-1. Of the 19 states which have held primaries, 16 have seen a larger democratic turnout.

This, of course proves absolutely nothing. The does not take into account democrats and republicans who did not vote in the primaries, but will in the general election. This also does not take into account the all-important independent voters, who could swing the election in any direction.quote>

It proves that there are more competition among the democratic candidates. Republican voters might feel content wether McCain or Romney would have been their candidate, while democratic voters are more interested in a specific candidate (and it might show that there's something in the talk about Clinton's "electability"; in the general election she would have to attract both independent and traditionally republican voters, something that can be hard in a Clinton-McCain race).

And you can make the tables in HTML and just paste it if you want it to align better.

[LarksTonguesInAspic 28]

Glad to see Romney get out of the way, I thought it would come much later. Maybe he took a running-mate deal to duck out early. I wouldn't have voted for Romney anyway. I like McCain for one glaring reason, he's never been stained by scandal. No dirty deals, check kiting, or influence peddling. Even if we disagree on some issues, his integrity is unchallenged. In this race, that alone puts him above many others.

I would pay good money to see Ron Paul win, but it's just not going to happen. McCain is a good compromise for any Republican, the evagelical backlash against him endangers the party and any Republican's chances to win.

Huckabee is ok by me, beats the hell out of Hillary IMHO. He is likely staying in for his own shot at VP. Since he and McCain are good friends and their campaigns are friendly to each other, a McCain-Huckabee ticket is at about 50/50 odds right now.

Obama would likely take VP under Hillary, but I doubt Hillary would take a VP offer if Obama was the nominee. She'll wait for the big office.

[Meg 368]

Originally posted by: confused04

The middle half of voters regularly swing to different sides leading to split governments and even split control between their state and the federal government. There have been many times where a district will vote for a republican mayor, a democratic governor, a republican Rep, a Democratic Senator, and a Republican President (thats what my county did in MD i think back in 2002, but I don't remember exactly). quote>

That middle half of voters is still likely to swing wildly, depending on what the final tickets in the general election look like.

I know middle voters who do not like Clinton but will vote for anyone running against Huckabee, even her.  Those same middle voters would vote for McCain over Clinton but would vote for Obama over Romney.  (This discussion happened before he dropped out.)

I also know one very conservative voter who would vote for Obama over McCain.

Voting the party line isn't going to happen a lot in this election.  I predict the most "cross over" votes since they started keeping track of such things in the exit polls.

[Micah 16]

I like McCain for one glaring reason, he's never been stained by scandal. No dirty deals, check kiting, or influence peddling.quote>

I used to think that. Found out what McCain did to win delegates in West Virginia and look up the word collusion.

[confused04 14]

Originally posted by: MrCinatit Sorry to go off tangent here, but I had to look up something to cure my curiosity, and came up with some mildly interesting but completely inconclusive conclusions.

I had been wondering this: While we know the winners of each party, which party has garnered the most interest? Are more people voting in the Democratic primaries, or the Republican primaries?

The below is extremely unofficial. The totals only reflect the total votes of the top vote getter per party in each primary. In addition, I am only counting states which have had both primaries. For instance, West Virginia has had the Republican primary, but the Democratic primary is not until later.

SO:

State          dem                       rep

MO           405,000                 194.000

AK                    301                      5.000

CA         2,132,000                 985,000

AZ             201,000                 227,000

TN            332,000                 189,000

UT             70,000                  255,000

CO            79,000                    33,000

MN           111,000                  25,000

CT           179,000                  78,000

GA           700.000               326,000

ND             11,000                   3,000

NJ           602,000               310,000

MA           704.000               255,000

AL           302,000               230,000

OK          228,000               122,000

NY         1,003,000             310,000

DE             51,000                22,000

AR           206,000            

[Odainsaker 2,136]

It may tentatively suggest that Democrats are far more energized than Republicans. I don't know too many that are resoundingly arguing Obama versus Clinton with the viciousness that the Republicans struggled over their candidates, but many that I do know like both Democrats, are conflicted on exactly for whom they finally wish to vote, and would be happy regardless which one ultimately wins the nomination. It is no wonder why the "Dream Ticket" keeps coming up to such Democratic cheers. What they do smell is Republican blood, feel furiously antagonized and indignant by the current Administration, and see their moment of victorious justice coming in November. I even get to listen to right-wing pro-military gun-nut Republican co-workers here in Texas preferring Clinton over Romney! My Republican business-owner friend, who previously voted Reagan-Bush-Bush-Bush, expresses captivation with Obama.  This does not bode well for the Republican contender if the general electorate shows anywhere near the same kind of turnout or sentiments.

I must make an admission though, I have not firmly decided between Hillary or Obama either. I seem to quietly root for Hillary as the numbers are tallied, but I also pounce on her just as willingly in defense of Obama. I think McCain really was the best and strongest Republican candidate that could appeal generally to moderates, but he has had to backtrack his positions recently to gain that place among the conservatives, and I find that very troubling, but if he made his case just right I could conceivably vote for him. The tide may be against him, but we have yet to get to the theatrical fun of the Obama-McCain or Clinton-McCain presidential debates later this year, and that is a lot of time for Bush to mismanage the ship of state even further. Sharpen your knives!

[belfastuniguy 18]

Obama would likely take VP under Hillary, but I doubt Hillary would take a VP offer if Obama was the nominee. She'll wait for the big office.quote>

I agree with that and I think that is what's going to happen. I also believe that if McCain gets the ticket then conservative Republicans will vote for Hillary.

I started to notice this as I watching some interviews with Americans. A lot, in fact nearly all the women that where going to vote for Huckabee or Ronmey said they would vote for Hillary if McCain got the ticket. I think the same would apply a good number of the men as well.

I hope the democrats sort this out pretty soon and in the process try to save the insults for their election rival and not each other as further attacks will only disenfranchise voters. I do now predict a Hillary-Obama ticket with Obama as VP. I think he would happily accept that. In such a case then the democrats have a powerful duo to win the election.

[JanYpe 17]

Originally posted by: belfastuniguy

 I also believe that if McCain gets the ticket then conservative Republicans will vote for Hillary.

quote>

Why do you think the Republican base would drop their own candidate in favour of a pro-choice, anti second amendment Democrat? I know McCain isn't all that well liked, but he'd still be the lesser of two evils. I can see Obama pulling some voters across the party lines, but a polarizing candidate like Clinton?

[ilikehotdogsalot 311]

Originally posted by: manticorefan Glad to see Romney get out of the way, I thought it would come much later. Maybe he took a running-mate deal to duck out early. I wouldn't have voted for Romney anyway. I like McCain for one glaring reason, he's never been stained by scandal. No dirty deals, check kiting, or influence peddling. Even if we disagree on some issues, his integrity is unchallenged. In this race, that alone puts him above many others.quote>

I ended up hating McCain for one reason during a 60 minutes interview. He was over in Iraq, with literally 500 troops around him, 5 helicopters circling around him, and the area closed off, and he ignorantly said that Baghdad was becoming a safe place to walk around in. I would never vote for him if I could, seems like another Bush to me. 

[belfastuniguy 18]

Why do you think the Republican base would drop their own candidate in favour of a pro-choice, anti second amendment Democrat? I know McCain isn't all that well liked, but he'd still be the lesser of two evils. I can see Obama pulling some voters across the party lines, but a polarizing candidate like Clinton?quote>

I have based it on what Americans themselves have said. Many Republicans detest McCain. He's not exactly a symbol of American conservatism. Yeah he is all for national security but many hate him for his voting practices and on many occasions siding with Democrats. I think the 'polarising Hillary' is somewhat overplayed by the media I think with her and Obama on a join ticket many will cross the line and vote for them. I can forsee angry Republicans voting democrat just to punish him and their party, never underestimate anger in an election.

[Frankie_Grove 32]

Originally posted by: JanYpe

Originally posted by: belfastuniguy

 I also believe that if McCain gets the ticket then conservative Republicans will vote for Hillary.

quote>

Why do you think the Republican base would drop their own candidate in favour of a pro-choice, anti second amendment Democrat? I know McCain isn't all that well liked, but he'd still be the lesser of two evils. I can see Obama pulling some voters across the party lines, but a polarizing candidate like Clinton?quote>

He said the Conservative base, not the Republican one. Conservatives are a group who are actually more or less independent, but they are the usual Republican supporters. In some cases Conservatives have in fact widely supported a Democrat (Jimmy Carter won almost all the Conservatives in 1976).

Also, realize that the Republican Party has significantly fewer base members than the Democrats. The elections really pivot on swing voters, not the people who stick to their parties no matter what.

[Voar Tok 4]

Originally posted by: belfastuniguy

Obama would likely take VP under Hillary, but I doubt Hillary would take a VP offer if Obama was the nominee. She'll wait for the big office.quote>

I agree with that and I think that is what's going to happen. I also believe that if McCain gets the ticket then conservative Republicans will vote for Hillary.

I started to notice this as I watching some interviews with Americans. A lot, in fact nearly all the women that where going to vote for Huckabee or Ronmey said they would vote for Hillary if McCain got the ticket. I think the same would apply a good number of the men as well.

I hope the democrats sort this out pretty soon and in the process try to save the insults for their election rival and not each other as further attacks will only disenfranchise voters. I do now predict a Hillary-Obama ticket with Obama as VP. I think he would happily accept that. In such a case then the democrats have a powerful duo to win the election.quote>

Originally posted by: belfastuniguy

Why do you think the Republican base would drop their own candidate in favour of a pro-choice, anti second amendment Democrat? I know McCain isn't all that well liked, but he'd still be the lesser of two evils. I can see Obama pulling some voters across the party lines, but a polarizing candidate like Clinton?quote>

I have based it on what Americans themselves have said. Many Republicans detest McCain. He's not exactly a symbol of American conservatism. Yeah he is all for national security but many hate him for his voting practices and on many occasions siding with Democrats. I think the 'polarising Hillary' is somewhat overplayed by the media I think with her and Obama on a join ticket many will cross the line and vote for them. I can forsee angry Republicans voting democrat just to punish him and their party, never underestimate anger in an election.quote>

Wow... If the conservative Republicans wouldn't vote for McCain, they sure wouldn't vote for Hillary.  That'd be like voting for the devil in most people's book.

I make a point of not making major predictions about this kind of stuff, but here, I'm going to do it.  The number of Republicans who vote against McCain to punish will be smaller than the number of Democrat men who will vote against Hillary simply because they don't like her.  The media doesn't overplay the whole thing about Hillary being polarizing.  She really is.  I mean, you're sitting here reading a post by a person who would rather cut off his hands than vote for her.  It's true that you should never underestimate anger in an election, but let's not forget that there's a much stronger anti-Hillary feeling than there is anti-McCain.

[hym 358]

Originally posted by: belfastuniguy

Why do you think the Republican base would drop their own candidate in favour of a pro-choice, anti second amendment Democrat? I know McCain isn't all that well liked, but he'd still be the lesser of two evils. I can see Obama pulling some voters across the party lines, but a polarizing candidate like Clinton?quote>

I have based it on what Americans themselves have said. Many Republicans detest McCain. He's not exactly a symbol of American conservatism. Yeah he is all for national security but many hate him for his voting practices and on many occasions siding with Democrats. I think the 'polarising Hillary' is somewhat overplayed by the media I think with her and Obama on a join ticket many will cross the line and vote for them. I can forsee angry Republicans voting democrat just to punish him and their party, never underestimate anger in an election.quote>

The "polarizing Hillary" thing exists because it really is true.  Few people are undecided on her; most either like her or absolutely detest her.  She has earned a reputation of being an egotistical, abusive, power-hungry, self-serving bleep who wants the White House just for self-satisfaction.  I can't prove that she's actually said all the colorful, derogatory comments that she's been accused of directing towards the Secret Service agents sworn to sacrifice themselves to save her, but it does seem in line with her character.  She has made the comment that she believes that certain decisions need to be made by the federal government because Americans can't be trusted to make the right decision themselves.

As to her electability, there was a study based on US census statistics and questioning of both Democrats and Republicans.  White males make up 40% of the electorate.  A majority of them identify themselves as Republicans, and as they get older, their views become more Republican in nature.  Women exhibit a similar trend; as they get married and have kids, they report becoming more Republican in their voting.  Of the men that were questioned, of particular interest was the fact that 60% of male Democratic voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate if Hillary Clinton was nominated for the Presidency.  Additionally interesting, 70% of single women identify themselves as liberal and believe in Democratic ideals.  According to their research, roughly 70% of single women also don't vote, with a very heavy bias toward the self-identified Democrats as being the non-voting ones.  Based on those statistics, about 60% of the men in her own party will disown her if she's nominated, and many of the women that share ideals share them in word only, since they won't go to the polls to vote.

(I don't mean the above to be racist or sexist, but I have read the above findings and thought them relevant to the discussion at hand.)

[belfastuniguy 18]

I still think she will be elected. We can give all the facts we like and information from polls and research but no-one will ever know until November.

I can give my view and others their view but no one view is correct as no-one can predict what the election result will be. We just gotta wait and see. I personally think Hillary would make a good President, but that is just one view.

The only thing that annoys me is that Bush remains in office till January 2009?? Is that right??

[Meg 368]

Originally posted by: belfastuniguy

I still think she will be elected. quote>

Don't forget that there are plenty of middle-of-the-roaders who won't vote for her.  Unless the Republican nominee is Huckabee.

We can give all the facts we like and information from polls and research but no-one will ever know until November.

I can give my view and others their view but no one view is correct as no-one can predict what the election result will be. We just gotta wait and see. quote>

Good point

The only thing that annoys me is that Bush remains in office till January 2009?? Is that right??quote>

That is correct.  January 20th at noon, if I recall correctly.  Short of impeachment (which no one has the time or energy for at this point), he will be President until then.

[yoder7652 21]

Well...the leader of the DNC (Howard Dean) is saying that the dem contest will be decided in 6-8 weeks. Most pundits think (as well as both campaigns) that both Obama and Clinton will have equal delegate counts going into the convention. I think that the statement by Dean suggests that the party officials will wait and see how ohio, texas, and pennsylvania play out and then the super delegates in the party will pick one of the candidates so that this thing can be over before the convention. Clinton has more super delegates now, but Obama has been picking them up like gangbusters...of course super delegates can change their mind all the way until convention....I think many feel that Obama has the momentum now, he has been handily out fundraising Clinton, and it will be interesting to see how this thing plays out.

[Meg 368]

Chesapeake Tuesday (as they are calling it here) is next week.   For the first time ever, as far as anyone can tell, Maryland, DC, and Virginia are having their primaries on the same day.

Suddenly the campaign ads are here.  I'm watching DC televisions stations and, every commercial break, I see an ad for Clinton, Obama, or McCain. 

Nothing for Huckabee yet, which is a bit of a surprise.  They say Virginia will be key for him and I usually see Virginia governor ads (which is most annoying since they elect their governor in the "off" years and I get bombarded with info about a race where I can't vote.  They are usually nasty ads.)    I guess Huckabee is skipping northern Virginia since southern Virginia considered the DC-area part of Virginia to be a different planet?

[yoder7652 21]

I'm in Ohio and I've been seeing Obama and Huckabee ads for the past two weeks and we're not till march...

[coolotter88 2]

Ron Paul has basically quit if you haven't heard, he's pulling back on running for president and focusing more on retaining his congress seat.

[Zelgadis 638]

Looks like Obama had a nice sweep today, all three states.

Huckabee is having a very good day too so far, but results aren't definitive for him yet.

ISF

[LarksTonguesInAspic 28]

Originally posted by: coolotter88 Ron Paul has basically quit if you haven't heard, he's pulling back on running for president and focusing more on retaining his congress seat.quote>

 

to demonstrate how the media is killing him, he has more delegates than Giuliani. At the WA state caucuses today Ron Paul was behind McCain by a very small margin, according to my mother-in-law who was in attendance.

[coolotter88 2]

no, I'm serious, ron paul has basically told all his fans, he's leaving (he wants to at least keep his congressional seat)

http://wonkette.com/354581/ron-paul-basically-gives-up

[webz888 0]

"no, I'm serious, ron paul has basically told all his fans, he's leaving (he wants to at least keep his congressional seat) "

If you read further, he also said:

"Let me tell you my thoughts. With Romney gone, the chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero. But that does not affect my determination to fight on, in every caucus and primary remaining, and at the convention for our ideas, with just as many delegates as I can get. But with so many primaries and caucuses now over, we do not now need so big a national campaign staff, and so I am making it leaner and tighter."

Sure, he's scaling back.  There's less states up for grabs now, so it is logical that he would.  His statement did not say anywhere that he's leaving or he will quit.  He has said himself that as long as people keep supporting him and sending him money, he's still in.

[krbe 193]

Originally posted by: coolotter88 no, I'm serious, ron paul has basically told all his fans, he's leaving (he wants to at least keep his congressional seat.quote>

He has basically left the race; not left it.

[LarksTonguesInAspic 28]

^^ W.T.H.? Maybe you could clarify?

[coolotter88 2]

well he HAD no chance to win, and now he has 0 chance of winning.

[krbe 193]

Originally posted by: manticorefan ^^ W.T.H.? Maybe you could clarify?quote>

Well, one of the definitions of basically is "for the most part"; and if you choose to withdraw your campaign but still appear at the ballots (while fighting for his views in general terms), I'd say that Paul's basically quit. He has stated that he'll be in the race as long as there is a mathematical chance of winning (i.e. until the majority of the votes are taken).

But another question: What happens with those votes Romney and Edwards secured? Are the delegates free to choose whoever they vote, can the candidates instruct them, do they retain their votes or what?

[coolotter88 2]

for edwards, his delegates are free to roam (most likely to choose obama)

for Romney, he has "suspended" his campaign, so his delegates are still his