Syria

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

The press is getting itself in harm's way.

Bashar Assad has changed from a benevolent dictator into some kind of monster, and one wonders just what kicked all this off? The middle east is unstable enough without a civil war there. Could it be a distraction while the Israel/Iran quarrel heats up?

[elavery 1,013]

Bashar Al-Assad had a chance to be a great reformer. Instead, he chose to kill his own people. I really do believe that this revolution is too strong for him to survive however. It may take 12 months or longer but Bashar Al-Assad is running out of time and he knows it.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

^ Well, was it all appearances with him? Is he being managed by some violent faction? Just what has happened to this man who was a hope for an improved outlook after the Soviet collapse?

  Edited February 22, 2012 by A Nonny Moose  

[Cobraroll 138]

One thing you rarely hear in the press, though: Assad has about 50% backing from the people. Approximately half the population still support him. Also, like in Libya, the rebels don't appear to get very well along with each other. Pretty much the only thing they've got in common is that they hate Assad.

And unlike Libya, the Syrian military is large and well-equipped, with anti-air defense being a separate branch of the armed forces. It wouldn't be as easy to intervene there. On the other hand, people are being killed by the hundreds in Homs, among the latest victims are an American and a French journalist.

Another Middle Eastern conflict locked in itself, with no apparent easy solution. Guess we'll have to wait and see what happens. If Assad wants to survive at the helm, he better turn around soon.

[Odainsaker 2,133]

^ Well, was it all appearances with him? Is he being managed by some violent faction? Just what has happened to this man who was a hope for an improved outlook after the Soviet collapse?

It was probably more wishful thinking on the West's part in assuming that because Bashar al-Assad was more aloof than his siblings and had received higher education in London, he would somehow be a liberalizing reformer in comparison to his vicious father. Some even still make the same mistake with Kim Jung-un in North Korea. We forgot that Assad is still just a willingly collaborative cog in a repressive machine that includes the authoritarian Ba'ath Party, the hardline military, and the dreaded security forces, all of whom have a vested interest in maintaining their own established power and privilieges. Throw in Iranian advisors along with the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah as longtime sheltered guests using Syria as a launching pad against Lebanon and Israel, and it becomes small wonder that Syria is in the grips of internal chaos.

Have no doubt that Iran is deeply busy here, as Syria, their only close Arab ally, is both Tehran's primary link to ship arms to its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah and the last outer bulwark against a reignition of civil rebellion back home. If they lose the arms routes and bases in Syria, they lose the greater terrorist campaign as well as their own 1970s Islamic Revolution, and so they will see Syria reduced to scorched-earth rubble before they let its friendly regime fall. They just need Assad to hold out long enough for the Iranian nuclear program to reach its ultimate fulfillment, and then he won't be needed anymore for the regional Balance of Terror game. Frighteningly, flaming rubble makes for the worst breeding grounds for extremism, and the longer this drags on, the worse will be the post-civil war prospects.

  Edited February 23, 2012 by Odainsaker  

[elavery 1,013]

Assad may have some level of support within Syria, but the longer he keeps killing his own people the more his support will erode.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

The debating society strikes again.

All this blather in the international forums will have no effect on the monster of Syria.

[elavery 1,013]

The UN is a complete failure. If countries could agree with each other (which is what the UN requires to function) then the UN would be obselete.

[Barbarossa 51]

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  Edited September 9, 2012 by Barbarossa  

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Strangely enough the pressure seems to be coming from the Arab League. They want things to quiet down and return to the status quo. Disruptions affect their oil income. The IAEA is making too much noise and has no information.

If Iran and Israel keep blackguarding each other and making threats things will soon come to an air attack by Israel on Iran. In that case, the world should defend Iran and punish Israel as an aggressor. I think the "get out of trouble free" card for Israel has expired.

Syria is a human rights side show.