should i evacute

[gamzdude 57]

Okay i live in the mountains of Western NC and as you see the remnants of tropical storm Lee will impact us on labor day look as you can see i am in the red for isolated tornadoes and flooding rain i believe in floods but not tornadoes i think those are myths and a bunch of junk but that,s my opinion any way here how much rain i will get yellow 6-10 inches also hears a Hazardous weather out look for my area -Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

330 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-

068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-041930-

RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-

IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-

ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-

HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-

CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-

MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-

GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-

PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-

GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-

ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-

330 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT

NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE

MOUNTAINS...INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS

WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND SMALL

HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY

AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO

WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WET SOIL FROM A LOT OF

RAIN...COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COULD BRING A LOT OF

TREES DOWN...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LANDSLIDE OR TWO

IN STEEP TERRAIN WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. AS WIND

SHEAR INCREASES WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF

TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE. and my threat level from lee i am in orange aka moderate s do you think i should convince my family to evacuate the area to a safer place. please help i am :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: .

  Edited September 3, 2011 by gamzdude  

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

You should follow the advice of your local authorities.

Living in the mountains has its own hazards such as flash floods from heavy rains up slope, mud or land slides when the overburden gets saturated. The rain isn't the problem, the topography is what counts. If your house is at the bottom of or half-way up a hill, I'd give it serious thought.

[astronelson 339]

If evacuation has been recommended by the relevant authorities, then you should definitely evacuate. If you think that there is sufficient danger to warrant evacuation, then you should evacuate.

And I'm not sure if that's what you meant by not believing in tornadoes, but they are real and can cause major damage.

[Meg 368]

I assure that tornadoes exist and I agree with what the others have said: pay attention to the local authorities.

Look at what happened in Vermont: some towns are still cut off because the floods damaged the roads. They didn't get a lot of warning (who expects a tropical storm in Vermont?) but, if your topography is anything like theirs, you could wind up in the same situation.

[un1 40]

Lee is a slow moving storm so he will probably drop tons of rain anywhere near the center. He is also fairly weak and shouldn't have too strong of winds out in the "Moderate damage zone". The real concern is flash flooding inland (a weakening TS over mountains usually causes most rainfall records), mudslides (especially after all the rain you guys in NC have gotten this year) and tornadoes (yes, they exist and they are a real threat from tropical cyclones over land), but other than that wind and storm surge damage shouldn't be too bad at all for anyone on the coast.

However, Lee isn't the most organized storm and the main of his strength is on the south east side of him so anyone on the east side of the current NHC track should be wary of heavy rain and strong winds.

Like everyone else said, follow your local authorities on what you should do to prepare. I'm just saying some of the common side effects of tropical cyclones far inland that you could expect from what we know about where you live.

[gamzdude 57]

Lee is a slow moving storm so he will probably drop tons of rain anywhere near the center. He is also fairly weak and shouldn't have too strong of winds out in the "Moderate damage zone". The real concern is flash flooding inland (a weakening TS over mountains usually causes most rainfall records), mudslides (especially after all the rain you guys in NC have gotten this year) and tornadoes (yes, they exist and they are a real threat from tropical cyclones over land), but other than that wind and storm surge damage shouldn't be too bad at all for anyone on the coast.

However, Lee isn't the most organized storm and the main of his strength is on the south east side of him so anyone on the east side of the current NHC track should be wary of heavy rain and strong winds.

Like everyone else said, follow your local authorities on what you should do to prepare. I'm just saying some of the common side effects of tropical cyclones far inland that you could expect from what we know about where you live.

okay thanks oh here a tor con forecast TWC's Exclusive TOR:CON index

by Dr. Greg Forbes, Severe Weather Expert

What is the TOR:CON Index?

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8: High probability of a tornado

6: Moderate possibility of a tornado

4: Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible

2: Very low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible

0: Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

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Updated: September 3, 2011 12:30 pm ET

Developed by Dr. Greg Forbes, (Find him on Facebook)The Weather Channel's severe weather expert, the TOR:CON index is an estimate of the likelihood of tornado activity within a given time period.

Areas listed below have an above-average threat of having severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and/or tornadoes for the specified days.

Forecast for Saturday, September 3

AL southwest - 6

DC - 2 or less

FL west panhandle - 6

IA southeast - 2 or less

IL north, central - 2 or less

IN north - 2 or less

KS south-central, east - 2 or less

LA southeast - 7

MD - 2 or less

MI central, south - 2 or less

MO north half - 2 or less

MS south - 7

NC north-central - 2 or less

NY extreme west, south-central - 2 or less

OH northwest - 2 or less

OK northwest - 2 or less

PA east half - 2 or less

TX panhandle - 2 or less

VA - 2 or less

WI south - 2 or less

Other areas - less than 2

Forecast for Sunday, September 4

AL west-central, south - 5

FL panhandle - 5

IN south - 2 or less

KY - 2 or less

LA northeast, southeast - 5

MD west - 2 or less

MO boot heel - 2 or less

MS south - 7

MS central - 5

NJ north - 2 or less

NY - 2 or less

OH - 2 or less

PA - 2 or less

VT - 2 or less

WV - 2 or less

Other areas - less than 2

Forecast for Monday, September 5

AL - 6

FL panhandle - 4

GA north, west - 5

GA central - 4

MS southeast, east-central - 4

NC southwest - 4

SC northwest - 4

TN east - 4

Other areas - less than 2

so 4 for my area so need help still

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Unless your "expert" works for NOAA, he is working with anecdotal data. Pay attention to your authorities.

All this shilly-shallying reminds me of what happened in the 1950s in Toronto when Hurricane Hazel caused a lot of damage and took several lives along Etobicoke Creek. The whole community was destroyed, and no one expected it. The destruction was on the tail end of a storm that came up the Mississippi Valley from the Gulf, and at T.O. had probably become a TS, but after crossing the Great Lakes, it was full of water and dumped a lot of it on west Toronto.

If your local EMO says get out, then scram! The time to go is yesterday.

  Edited September 4, 2011 by A Nonny Moose