Korea on Verge of War

[Barbarossa 51]

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  Edited September 8, 2012 by Barbarossa  

[Jack_wilds 550]

...hello all,

I'm chiming in to say something in the face of how things look, feel or appear and say something other than the apparent obvious...

I think the 'Kim's' are on their way out of power, as they will take one risk too many and powers within N. Korea will stop it and take them out... as I think that brainless 'Kim person' is plotting something very outrageous -can he say nukes?... I also say that the USA wouldn't be sucked up into a war there again as it will be resolved by the Koreans before it goes that far... then Korea, will once again be one and whole and at peace with herself.

so inspite of the geo-political theory/ realities, I'm looking for something different to occur that wasn't considered -

food for thought, take or leave it

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

The reunification of Korea would be a benison.  If we can believe the current propaganda SK has become a member of the first world club while NK remains in the third world with a marginal economy wherein they are hard pressed to feed themselves.

I believe that the Kim dynasty is a front for the military, who will keep them around for rabble rousing purposes.  I don't think there will be a coup that will dethrone the Kims.  In the end, the whole dictatorial structure will just become more and more top-heavy until it falls over.  Wasn't it P.T. Barnum who said "You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time"?

[Ocram's Razr 964]

I would love to see a unified Korea but I am already boycotting China even though it seems like they will not be supporting north Korea. A post was deleted instead of modified. I will now double my post count.

[JeeKTan 4]

Hard to say, though. If both Koreas unite, South Korea economy will crash (and we don't need another economy crisis) just like when East and West Germany unite. Even after decades, the German economy is still suffering. A war will be very bad (hope that doesn't happen). The two countries should cooperate with each other and hopefully there's no war.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

With the most recent unification of Germany as an salutary example, one would hope that a unification of Korea would proceed on a more rational basis.  There is no reason for a flood of refugees from the north messing up the economy of the south, as there are already controls across the DMZ to stop that.  There is no "wall" to knock down.  The peasantry of NK will probably stay put, and the difference will be a lowering of taxes and they will get to keep what they produce.  As for the population of major centers like Pyongyang, unless things are much worse than reported, only the "dictatorship" need flee.

[Barbarossa 51]

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  Edited September 8, 2012 by Barbarossa  

[krbe 193]

Originally posted by: Barbarossa

  Germany is one of, if not the biggest, economies in Europe, courtesy of the US and other Allies following the war.

quote>

That is purely because of West Germany's economic might. Reunifaction has been much more than accomodating former East Germany in the Reichstag. Remember, West Germany was a competitive Western European economy, integrating a socialist economy into this isn't done overnight. And competitive Wessis will naturally out-perform sluggish Ossis when they go head to head.

However, at least the East Germans tried to build a viable state. There were food and not grass cakes; the army, the airline, and the railways and buses had petrol. There were an industry (the one now driven out by competition), and the East Germans were in no way as isolated as the North Koreans are – Western TV was available, as well as foreigners being allowed in and East Germans to a certain extent allowed out (eastwards, but still).

The Germans might still have a "Mauer im Kopf", and East might still lag behind West, That is nothing compared to the cement filling the brains in North, and the lightyears ahead the South is, though.

[Msprintz 25]

Originally posted by: A Nonny Moose

With the most recent unification of Germany as an salutary example, one would hope that a unification of Korea would proceed on a more rational basis.  There is no reason for a flood of refugees from the north messing up the economy of the south, as there are already controls across the DMZ to stop that.  There is no "wall" to knock down.  The peasantry of NK will probably stay put, and the difference will be a lowering of taxes and they will get to keep what they produce.  As for the population of major centers like Pyongyang, unless things are much worse than reported, only the "dictatorship" need flee.

quote>

It took almost 50 years to unify Germany, and they had more things going for them than the Koreas.  East Germany had an economic engine, and the ability to draw off of that to provide for their citizens.  They could provide power, food ( although there were shortages up until the 1960's ), and other basic necessities.  In 1984 the per capita income of East Germany was $9,800, pretty respectable.  

Despite this unemployment still skyrocketed when the two states were reunited ( most notably noticed because this unemployment was in the former East German state ).   

The North Korean state doesn't have any of the attributes of the former East German state.  What economy they have is paltry.  Any reunification of two Koreas needs to be done gradually and with forsight to avoid destroying the economy of a united Korea.  I don't see that happening anytime in the foreseable future ( perhaps a unification by 2050 might be possible ).    

[Jasoncw 11,940]

That's the stuff that I first think of for a unified Korea.

Not only are there those economic problems, there's all of the social problems that go with it. The South Koreans already don't like North Korea, and they'll be pretty unhappy seeing their economy dragged down to support the North Koreans. There will be two hugely disparate classes, one wealthy and educated and the other dirt poor, and uneducated (heads only filled with NK propaganda). Plus there's the emotional baggage of living in a place like NK, and the culture shock of being exposed to the rest of the world. And then you have to transition the North Korean government into the South Korean government, but I'm assuming the majority of North Korean government is corrupt.

So if they reunite, I think Korea would be in economic and social turmoil for a very long time.

A better way of doing it might be to keep North Korea independent, and after getting rid of the current regime, do a lot of aide and state-building until the two are comparable enough to reunite. But then you'd also have to compete with Chinese state-building efforts.

[BarbulaM1 38]

The situation is interesting to say the least, though I do not believe this incident alone will spark a prolonged conflict. Mind you they are still technically at "war". As for a unified Korea, I don't know if South Korea would be able to handle the economic and social hardship that the unification would cause nor do I beleive that China would feel comfortable with a close US ally directly on their boarder.

The social hardships incurred would be significantly different than those of the German unification, the East German state was at least slightly economically able and had some technology. North Korea is isolated from the rest of the world on an unprecedented scale, I cannot even begin to imagine what people in the country are brought up to beleive, but I have a sure feeling that their schools have not been teaching good things about the South. A unified Korea would be an utter mess if done too quickly.

[Nucks8 1]

People!

This topic is for the Korea's, not Germany.

Don't get me wrong, I love Germany, but that is off-topic...

[Nucks8 1]

People!

This topic is for the Korea's, not Germany.

Don't get me wrong, I love Germany, but that is off-topic...

[Ocram's Razr 964]

This thread has been hit with double and triple posts due to bad connections.

I was typing from my iPhone so it corrected it to sit instead of hit.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Well, maybe someone should stand up for it.  This is getting to be old, dead news now.