Australian Federal Election

[ROFLyoshi 1,760]

Oh god, hung parliament...

I wish I could have voted, but I'm only 15...

[sneakeypete 16]

Why do you assume that the three ex national MP's are going to side with the Coalition? As Sam just pointed out, they did communicate with a frigging phone line. I heard thismorning that they said they opposed a privatly owned internet network. Most importantly, they are EX national. They became ex national for a reason, they aren't going to go running back to them very quickly i'd assume.

[sixers33 3]

Liberals received majority vote, they are very likely to deal with the party that got the most votes. Not to mention, they will do what's best for the rural Queensland, and that is definitely not Labor.

[ROFLyoshi 1,760]

Originally posted by: sixers33

Liberals received majority vote, they are very likely to deal with the party that got the most votes. Not to mention, they will do what's best for the rural Queensland, and that is definitely not Labor.quote>

Well Labor will do whats best for the WHOLE COUNTRY. Not surprising that central Melbourne 'environmnentally conscious' city slickers voted Green.

Anyway, what happens if the vote 75 apiece?

[sixers33 3]

I agree Labor will do best for the whole country, but that still doesn't change what i said

It won't be 75 each, but if it were, Governor General would call a new election which would be annoying going to the polls again :\

[astronelson 339]

I wonder if the Greens would pick up any more seats if we return to the polls. The swing to them was astounding.

What's also astounding is the number of informal ballots. They outdid a few parties in many electorates.

[sneakeypete 16]

Originally posted by: sixers33

Liberals received majority vote, they are very likely to deal with the party that got the most votes. Not to mention, they will do what's best for the rural Queensland, and that is definitely not Labor.quote>

Not quite the impression i got. One of them, i think, said that "we had 12 years of suffering under the LNP. then in 3 years the ALP didn't make it any worse, but didn't make it any better". Take that how you will, but to me it inidcates that they're slightly dissilusioned with the LNP.

[Sam 163]

Originally posted by: astronelson

I wonder if the Greens would pick up any more seats if we return to the polls. The swing to them was astounding.

quote>

Possibly not. The Green vote may have partly been a protest vote and having protested those people might go back to their regular parties if another election was held.

The Greens would have to campaign very hard if a new election was held. Although they got a large fraction of the remaining vote, it is spread through electorates and is not translating into seats. The need to consolidate some of that vote in particular electorates if they want to get actual seats, and that may be very difficult in all but a few. It is difficult to change an electorate's choice to the extent they would need to win seats.

Originally posted by: sixers33

Liberals received majority vote, they are very likely to deal with the party that got the most votes. quote>

Someone (I forget who) said last night that if actual proportion of vote was used the Greens should have something like 17 seats, so I don't think that can be used as an argument for any particular major party having right to govern. Also three of the independents seemed to make it fairly clear last night they would be looking for stable government and position on particular issues, rather than simply who got most votes. I think that is a fairly sensible approach to take.

Originally posted by: ROFLyoshi

Anyway, what happens if the vote 75 apiece?

quote>

Well there are 150 seats (half that is 75 which gives the figure of 76 for outright majority government). However, the three independents have won their seats fairly clearly, the Melbourne Green seems ok. Denison last I heard may still be in some doubt. So that's at least four seats not available to the major parties, possibly five. There are three remaining undecided (not counting any from re-counts). The LNP would have to get all three to get to 75, but Labor is ahead in two. While Labor is struggling it is remotely conceivable (but unlikely) they may win two, possibly all three of the remaining seats, plus the may be an outside chance still in Denison. That would take them to 74. If the Green aligns with Labor, as seems likely, that would be 75. Then they would just have to persuade at least one independent. If in the unlikely event they could pull all that off, at that point the LNP could not form a majority government.

The LNP could get one more taking them to 73, and would have to either persuade three of the four independents to support them, or pick up at least one more of the remaining seats in doubt. One may be very line ball, the other is a little more to Labor (ABC).

Either way I think both parties have to have all the remaining elements fall in their favour.

[astronelson 339]

There are still 3 seats remaining, but it seems two of them have changed. By the ABC's reckoning, the ALP is definitely on 72, and the three other ones are probably going to the Coalition.

Boothby: 50.6% Lib, 49.4% ALP, 77.9% counted.

Brisbane: 50.7% Lib, 49.3% ALP, 70.7% counted.

Hasluck: 50.3% Lib, 49.7% ALP, 74.6% counted.

They're definitely too close to actually give them to either yet. They haven't even finished counting Brisbane's booths.

[sixers33 3]

ALP now claims 2PP Majority votes.

Greens Melbourne member says he would prefer to be in a Gillard government.

One Independent Windsor has issues with Liberal senator Barnaby Joyce. A few other independents want better communication (such as NBN) and an Emission Trading Scheme.

This will be interesting.

Also, Boothby will be a Liberal retain.

[sixers33 3]

Independents leaning to Labor over National Broadband Network?

A CLUTCH of country independents who will be critical to forming government will likely lean towards Labor on the issue of Australia's broadband future.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/broadband-plan-may-be-alp-trump-card/story-fn5rizbk-1225908533558

Labor refuses to concede Boothby, Liberals expected to win by postal votes

 

LABOR is refusing to concede the knife-edge Adelaide seat of Boothby as Liberal incumbent Andrew Southcott carries a 710-vote lead into the counting of postal votes.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/no-south-australian-seats-change-hands-in-federal-election-2010/story-fn5rizbk-1225908255190

 

PM says 'we are voters choice'

Ms Gillard took the initiative first up today stressing that the ALP had won the two-party vote, meaning "a majority of Australians voting yesterday prefer a Labor Government".

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/were-voters-choice-says-pm/story-fn5rizbk-1225908509361

 

Greens yet to commit support to Labor

THE Australian Greens have not committed to helping either major party form government, despite likely MP Adam Bandt indicating he would be more likely to support Labor.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/greens-talk-to-pm-but-no-deal/story-fn5rizbk-1225908502030

[sixers33 3]

The southern suburbs seat of Boothby remains on a knife-edge as both sides refuse to call the result.

Liberal incumbent Andrew Southcott held an 814-vote lead late yesterday as counting of absentee votes continued.

An upbeat Dr Southcott said he was optimistic most of the remaining 8000 uncounted votes would break his way.

- 7:30PM Update from abc.net.au:

Kerry O'Brien is interviewing independents Tony Windsor, Bob Katter and Rob Oakeshott. Mr Oakeshott says it makes good procedural sense for the trio to act as a bloc in negotiating with the major parties to form government. Mr Windsor says The Nationals are a dying party and Mr Katter says it would take two hours for him to explain why he left The Nationals to become an independent. Mr Windsor has just called Nats deputy leader Barnaby Joyce "a fool" and "an embarrassment". Mr Katter says he will work with whoever he needs to to get a good outcome for his constituency, noting he's worked with people he loathes and detests in the past. He also says Tony Abbott must have been grinding his teeth listening to Nats leader Warren Truss personally attack Mr Katter and Senator Joyce having a go at Mr Windsor on national TV on election night. Mr Oakeshott's more conciliatory, saying everyone needs to consider everyone else's interests. He's shaping as the 'good cop' in this 'good cop, bad cop, bad cop' negotiating routine.

[Palpatine001 57]

Cant you aussies do anything right

You go hang your Parliament and have two various nutters vying for office

Hmmm anycase

GO GILARD

Now then lets see how long before my government has a bust up

[sixers33 3]

-  Update - 

The latest election count shows the independent Andrew Wilkie, might not win the Tasmanian seat of Denison and both the Coalition and Labor would have 73 seats each.

The result in Denison is very close, but if the seat falls to Labor's Jonathon Jackson, the ALP is likely to have 73 seats in Parliament, there would be three independents and one Greens MP.

The ABC's election computer is suggesting the seat of Hasluck in Western Australia and the electorate of Brisbane will both go to the Coalition giving it 73 seats or exactly the same as Labor.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/

This would leave us with:

Labor 73

Coalition 73 (Should claim Boothby, Brisbane, Hasluck)

Greens  1

Independents 3

76 is the magic number needed to form a government.

Greens will likely support Labor, giving ALP/Greens a 74-73 edge.

 

 

 

[astronelson 339]

The ALP has an easier job than the Coalition if that happens - they'll only need two of the three independents to form government. The Coalition will need all of them. And seeing as the independents support the proposed national broadband network, it looks like we might have a Labor minority government with the Greens definitely holding the balance of power in the senate.

Of course, there's still a small chance the ALP could pick up one of the seats still in doubt, but it is quite unlikely.

Tangential note: the ABC had the highest viewing figures for the election coverage. They are generally best for this kind of thing. I'd take Kerry O'Brien over Kochie and Mel for serious matters any day.

[sixers33 3]

Sky News has better coverage than ABC

David Spears, Peter Van Onselen

[astronelson 339]

Originally posted by: sixers33

Sky News has better coverage than ABC

David Spears, Peter Van Onselenquote>

I contest that - Kerry O'Brien. Additionally, ABC is free-to-air, Sky News is not.

ABC had 1,044,000 viewers for their election coverage, compared to Nine's 738,000, Seven's 578,000, Ten's 395,000, and SBS's 48,000.

EDIT: Denison's in doubt again.

[sixers33 3]

Originally posted by: astronelson

Originally posted by: sixers33

Sky News has better coverage than ABC

David Spears, Peter Van Onselenquote>

I contest that - Kerry O'Brien. Additionally, ABC is free-to-air, Sky News is not.

ABC had 1,044,000 viewers for their election coverage, compared to Nine's 738,000, Seven's 578,000, Ten's 395,000, and SBS's 48,000.

EDIT: Denison's in doubt again.

quote>

Don't like Kerry O'Brien, David Spears is the best political analyst out there. You need to actually watch Sky News first to get an idea

Whether it is freetoair or foxtel doesn't really come into the equation lol

[astronelson 339]

Dunkley's gone back into doubt.

ALP have 72, Coalition 69, 5 in doubt.

[Sam 163]

How did that happen? Is it just the postal votes coming in or was there a recount (I thought the recounts were all done yesterday)?

Do you have a link to the list you are getting them from?

The ABC is now predicting Denison to be retained by the ALP.

[sixers33 3]

As of 23/8/10

Labor 72 (In fight for Denison)

Coalition 70 (Should claim Boothby, Hasluck)

Greens 1

Independents 3

76 is the magic number needed to form a government.

[shanemelbourne 29]

Dunkley came back into the contest as there was a miss-count on a batch of votes. ps: If the greens lower house member signs up with a minority coalition party (as Bob Brown is not ruling out), it will be their Meg Lees (Democrats) GST moment and the end of their support.

[astronelson 339]

Originally posted by: Sam

How did that happen? Is it just the postal votes coming in or was there a recount (I thought the recounts were all done yesterday)?

Do you have a link to the list you are getting them from?

The ABC is now predicting Denison to be retained by the ALP.quote>

I'm getting it from the "Seats in Doubt" on the ABC website. http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/seatsindoubt.htm

They haven't finished counting all the votes yet, so I suppose more of the later ones were against whoever was in the lead in the seat.

[sixers33 3]

Latest Update

ALP 72

Coalition 73

Greens 1

Independents 4

[astronelson 339]

Where are you getting those figures? ABC's only giving me 71 - 71 - 1 - 4. I don't think they're making predictions on it yet.

[Sam 163]

Antony Green was just on the 7:30 report with those figures.

He's predicting LNP for Hasluck, Brisbane too close to predict but probably LNP, Denison to the Independent. Labor needs approximately 57% of the postal votes in its favour to retain Denison.

Corangamite still in doubt but looking like Labor. Lindsay looks to have gone to Labor.

Boothby looks like it went to the Libs and Dunkley to the Libs.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

National Post (Canada) is reporting a dead heat with four or five independents holding the balance of power.  It is like the Liberals and Conservatives tied, and the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP got no seats, and only a few independents and maybe a Green party member are left.  What a mess, and deservedly so.

I find Australian politics even more convoluted than ours, so I wish them good luck.  The idea of running as a coalition gives me deep chills, and I gather the people of Australia felt the same.

[ROFLyoshi 1,760]

Well the ALP has been in a long standing coalition with the national Party...

Im just glad my seat (La Trobe) is now in Labor's hands...

[sixers33 3]

Liberals have been in a long standing coalition with the Nations, not the Australian Labor Party (ALP).

Also, the three independents have given both Gillard and Abbott a letter on their demands.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Interesting to see the tail wagging the dog.