Australian Federal Election

[sixers33 3]

                 

Australian Labor Party (Centre-Left)                  |       Australian Liberal Party (in Coalition with The Nationals, Centre-Right)

Leader (Currently in office): Julia Gillard (aka Sixer's mum, Ranga)     |    Leader (Opposition):  Tony Abbott (Religious nutjob, person who wears speedos)

August 21 Federal Election    

Major Issues:

Environment: Known to be Labors failure with their inability to pass an Emissions Trading Scheme, the Coalition is firmly against the ETS. 

Immigration: Liberals are demanding stricter legislation, return to the previous Howard Governments methods, Labor however have a similar stance since Julia Gillard became Prime Minister.

Mining Tax: Brought down Kevin Rudd and will ensure Labor will be forced to struggle to win Government, Miners aren't happy, a deal has been reached however anti-mining tax campaigns are starting up again, Liberals believe that increasing taxes in mining destroys the economy ruining competitiveness.  

National Broadband Network: Labor's strongest supported policy, Liberals believe there are alternative ways to spend the money and increase speed of the nations internet.

Censorship: Labor supports censorship, it has become a minor issue because of this and the potential controversy involved and damage if it were to become a major topic in the public spotlight. Labor communications minister Stephen Conroy has become one of the least popular ministers because of this. Liberals do not plan on proposing censorship legislation. - Updated 18/9/2010

The Pendulum

Australian Labor Party: 88 Seats  (10 Marginal seats below 1%)

Coalition: 59 (6 Marginal seats below 1%)

Other Seats won: 3 (Independents)

www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/

[astronelson 339]

I shall be watching the Greens party with interest. I agree with many of their policies, except the nuclear power one, and possibly some other ones I can't remember. I don't think any Australian political party supports nuclear power... regardless, I shall have to do more research before I finalise my preferences.

[sixers33 3]

If the Greens claim a seat i swear, i'm going to cut down every rain forest in Tasmania. They will probably end up as the balance of power in the senate D:

also:

THE tobacco industry is secretly funding a $5 million anti-Labor advertising blitz, cooked up with the help of Liberal strategists, for the final two weeks of the election campaign.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/libs-in-bed-with-tobacco-industry-to-attack-labor/story-fn5rizbk-1225900788345

[astronelson 339]

Here's an interesting election tidbit I was not previously aware of - both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott were born overseas. I knew Julia Gillard was born in Wales, but I didn't know Tony Abbott was born in London.

The 5 Greens senators do hold the balance of power, along with the Independent Nick Xenophon and the one Family First senator. If Family First votes with the Liberals and the remaining ones vote with Labor, then the senate is drawn 38-38.

[Mr X 0]

Quote:

Australian Labor Party: 88 Seats (10 Marginal seats below 1%)

Coalition: 59 (6 Marginal seats below 1%)

Other Seats won: 3 (Independents)

I think that is due to the redistribution which saw 4 coalition seats nominally fall to Labor. Plus Ryan was lost by the coalition because of exiled MP Michael Johnson.

I think Coalition are actually sitting on 64, ALP 83. :\

I am predicting both Labor and Coalition will end up somewhere between 70 and 80 seats each, with QLD + NSW picking the winner. 1 Green (Melbourne) and another Independent set to gain Parkes (not sure which party currently has this seat- Nationals?).

Overall, this has been a crap election. Both sides have offered nothing productive but spin.

[sixers33 3]

 The redistribution hasn't changed though, so those seats are still Labors to lose. It's not like they are changing back lol

[astronelson 339]

A few interesting minor parties have sprung up in a few states. I'd like to see how they do. A few more parties in the house and senate may make it more interesting. My first preferences in both are third parties.

[sixers33 3]

Election Day!

[astronelson 339]

I've already voted. The entire process took less than 15 minutes, although there were only 4 candidates in the House and 9 in the Senate. I pity my friends who didn't bother changing their address and are still registered in NSW. There are something like 84 Senate candidates there.

[sixers33 3]

only took about a minute in life and 30 seconds to vote

[sneakeypete 16]

Waited 40 minutes to vote. Showgrounds where they usually do it was popular ish, but only 2 voting staff there so the line took ages to move.

[sixers33 3]

Exit Poll from Sky News in the marginal seats, 51% Labor 49% Coalition on 2 Party Preferred

[Sam 163]

It took me ages to get mine done, we have 60 candidates for the Senate in Queensland and I messed up my first Senate paper and had to get a second one

[sixers33 3]

I voted above the line rofl

Also: Labor favoured to win cliffhanger

LEADERS cast their votes saying it'll be a "tight finish" but Julia Gillard remains the bookies' favourite with just hours to go.

From News.com.au

[sixers33 3]

to watch Sky News election coverage:

http://skynews.com.au/

[Sam 163]

Originally posted by: sixers33

I voted above the line rofl

quote>

I prefer to allocate my own preferences. I don't like the above the line voting option.

Originally posted by: sixers33

Also: Labor favoured to win cliffhanger

LEADERS cast their votes saying it'll be a "tight finish" but Julia Gillard remains the bookies' favourite with just hours to go.

From News.com.auquote>

Exit polls are indicating Labor approximately 52% to Liberal approx 48% (Nine News). I'm interested to see how the minor parties go this time round. There were a lot of fed-up people at the voting booth today.

[sixers33 3]

 Early counting shows Labor in serious trouble in Qld/NSW, Vic isn't going aswell as it should.

Looks like my seat might be the only positive for Labor?

Liberals win tonight.

[Sam 163]

ABC is reporting about a 5.8% swing in the primary vote away from Labor with about 13% of the vote counted. Much of that swing seems to be going to the Greens, minor parties and independents rather than the Coalition.

Edit: Theres been a pretty big swing in primary vote towards the Greens in my electorate which is unusual. It was held by Labor and where I live is normally a strong Liberal area. ALP seems to be just ahead on preferences so far after being so far behind on primary vote.

Also Eden Monaro has been retained by the ALP, and the Greens are polling well in the seat of Melbourne with the ABC predicting them to win.

Bennelong looks to be going back to the Liberals.

In Kevin Rudd's seat of Griffith it looks like he's had a swing against him of more than 9% in the primary vote, translating to 4.3% against after preferences.

[sixers33 3]

Labor 70 seats, Liberals to form government, possibly by dealing with independents

[astronelson 339]

The Greens won a seat. Got your chainsaw ready sixers, or are you going to use an axe?

[sixers33 3]

I can take out my anger on the Tasmanian rainforests lol

[Sam 163]

Wyatt Roy, the LNP candidate for Longman looks to be ahead so far. At 20 years old he would possibly the youngest person elected to parliament.

The Coalition seems to be edging ahead on number of seats (71 to 69, ABC)

Previously the ABC was predicting 73 to 72 to Labor.

[sixers33 3]

Three independents to decide, all three ex-nationals

[astronelson 339]

ABC says there's a fourth independent and a minor chance for another Green representative. Very minor chance, mind. The chances of a hung parliament are high.

[sneakeypete 16]

Somehow i'm thinking minute by minute commentry on this thing is going to be... tiring.

Lot of counting still to go in a lot of seats that are still close. I'm also hearing something about a preferences deal with the greens in a 3 way split seats that could net another ALP seat that the ABC is counted as "won" etc.

Interesting how its all gone down throughout the country though. Two party perfered is slightly ahead for the LNP. That being said, we don't really have a two party system anymore. Primary votes is something like 43% LNP, 38% ALP and 11% Greens.Seems like a lot of the green votes are just taken from labour, instead of from the LNP. In my biased mind, I could see either party forming a minority government with a proper mandate.

[Sam 163]

Originally posted by: astronelson

ABC says there's a fourth independent and a minor chance for another Green representative. Very minor chance, mind. The chances of a hung parliament are high.quote>

Yes the fourth independent is Andrew Wilkie, a former Green, in the seat of Denison which may be why they are talking about "3" independents. But Penny Wong seems to think Labor may yet claim Denison, and Andrew Wilkie has just been on ABC and there are a lot of postal votes to come in but as an independent he didn't have much in the way of resources to campaign to those voters.

Also it looks like Wilson Tuckey may have lost his seat.

Originally posted by: sneakeypete

Somehow i'm thinking minute by minute commentry on this thing is going to be... tiring.

Lot of counting still to go in a lot of seats that are still close. I'm also hearing something about a preferences deal with the greens in a 3 way split seats that could net another ALP seat that the ABC is counted as "won" etc.

quote>

I think the Greens were on an "open ticket".

Originally posted by: sneakeypete

Seems like a lot of the green votes are just taken from labour, instead of from the LNP. quote>

Yes, the Coalition only had an overall swing of about 1.8% towards them whereas Labor had something like a 5.4% swing against. The independents and minor parties had a swing against of 0.1%, and the majority of the swing was to the Greens (3.8% - ABC), so it wasn't like people were switching to the coalition. They were breaking left not right, so I don't think the coalition can claim much of a mandate on the basis of the overall vote either, even though they won back a lot of seats.

Also don't forget that a number of those Green votes will likely return to Labor via preferences rather than to the Coalition.

[astronelson 339]

The Greens now hold 9 seats in the Senate. There's the balance of power. Family First has been removed from the senate and replaced with the Democratic Labor Party. I don't like either Family First or the DLC, but they have no power so it doesn't matter.

Australian Greens FTW.

[sixers33 3]

Dammit. The one thing i cared about was the National Broadband Network..now it's gone...*poof*

[Sam 163]

Originally posted by: sixers33

Dammit. The one thing i cared about was the National Broadband Network..now it's gone...*poof* quote>

Well I thought it was a bit of a poor show that the three independents who are going to be so crucial to either side to form government had to be interviewed on a crackly old phoneline during the coverage. In a country like ours it really shouldn't have had to be that way. I think one of the phone lines even had problems.

I do care about a few more things than just one issue though and on quite a few of those I don't think either party got it right. I think the voters are trying to tell them that but I don't think based on last night's comments that they are yet seeing that. Both major parties need to take a good long look at their policies and what the voters have told them.

[sixers33 3]

A possibly minority Liberal government built up of three ex-national independents, a 77-73 majority all up with the Greens on Labors side, Liberals would still have to deal with the Greens in the senate, otherwise they can't pass anything. If anyone quits or retires or has health issues, a byelection occurs and the government power could switch..

Yay for the stability of our nation >_>