North Korea: The worlds three year old.

[Nucks8 1]

 As most of you know, recently North Korea threatened to attack South Korea after it was confirmed that they sank a South Korean Naval ship.

It seems to me that they're thinking that it's scaring the world.

What's your opinion? Do you think they're serious or are they just saying it to sound tough?

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

North Korea's only real ally, China, seems to be backing off.  I think this sabre rattling is good enough to provoke a raid by somebody's special forces with a view to lowering their nuclear capability.

BTW your poll is incomplete.  Things like this are not black or white.  There have to be a few Aw Shucks choices.  I decline to vote.

[-Lexus- 2]

I have no doubts that N-Korea will use their nuclear bombs when it comes to an actual war. Their leaders are crazy enough to commit suicide like that.

But I dont think it will come to that. Though China isnt all that supportive of the N-Korean regime anymore, they will not allow a war that involves any western military power. They dont want the west right at their doorstep. So, they will likely condemn N-Korea again, get some sanctions and leave it like that.

The only way for China to allow a war with N-Korea is when they are actually stupid enough to start a war. 

 

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Originally posted by: -Lexus-

The only way for China to allow a war with N-Korea is when they are actually stupid enough to start a war. 

 quote>

You are a little ambiguous here.  Which they did you have in mind?

As for the NK's actually deploying a nuclear weapon, the U.S. will defend Japan for sure.  If it takes a few megatons air burst over Pyongyang, they will clear it with the Chinese first, and the Russians will go along.  No one else need be involved.  My only regret in that regard will be the loss of life of ordinary NK citizens, and it would probably miss the Kim clan.  However, it would be a nice lesson on the penalty of playing with fire.  The really big question is does Obama have the family jewels to do this without starting a game of Play Global Thermonuclear War.

[Z77 3]

I personally believe that we should go in with international help and try to reunite the peninsula. This petty turn your back on each other cuz we're better than you nonsense has been going on too long. An with the international help thing, i believe that the US should be a main power, but i dont believe in the ideas that certain former presidents had with 'oh they are going to hurt us with these destructive weapons...lets occupy them.' I believe in a world wide 'lets agree to help out the North Korean Citizens because they are in a tight spot.' And as said before, i definately think Japan and Russia will help the cause, and China may go ahead and let us all do so.

[Aspire 3]

In My Opinion, North Koreans are suffering and have been suffering for a very long time and Dictator Kim is just toying arround in his sandbox that he calls a country. Im positive that as irrational as he is he would try to avoid omething like this, Getting to my point, basically, there IS going to be a war between the two, and South Korea IS going to defea them, not only because of their backing, but because of their technologies that are available to them. North Korea, as we all know is still stuck in the 50s (somebody correct me there) and they kept themselves locked up in a box in the coner from the rest of the world, and it i going to be the reason for their demise and i think the rest of the world is going to see how this whole situation is going to play out.

Communism in the 20th century was supposedly a good idea to some, but ultimately everything collapses.

[Duke of York 23]

 Well , This is a pitiful situation. Here we have two countries that Culturally and historically should be united to this day. As we all know in North Koreas hay day ( Soviet Help ) Alot of the Industrial power came from the USSR. Since the USSR's rough patch and the Establishment of the Russian Federation the DPRK is not recieving the support they once desired and needed. True the Peoples Republic has always usually supported the Democratic Peoples Republic but I feel they are not a threat to the United States. China needs us to buy there products and we use China as well ect. Now a Nucleur North Korea might not threaten the west. But if Kim Jong Ill sells it to boost his economic means to " Radicals " It could impact Isreal,Europe and The Americas. Technically the Korean War has never been resolved. It is unique in the fact that it has been a stale war. I am certain if the War was to restart the PRC will send supplies to North Korea and the United States will send supplies to South Korea and it will go from there.

 Sooner or later something will happen...Kim Jong Ill dies and his son takes place...Who knows what His state of mind is in being raised by His father? Or China might decide not to support N, Korea wich would end it all since the PRC provides nearly 60 % off all there food and Train service ect. Really North Korea is a extention of Chinese economy.

-DOY-

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

The Chinese have been having a lot of civil unrest with people running amok and killing school children, the Chinese businesses supplying fake, harmful products on the international market, Tibet, natural disasters, and a huge population that has to be fed.  They have less and less time and money to spend on silly ideological support of the NK's.  The Communist ideology in China is waning.  China has absorbed many different regimes it its history, and pretty soon, as Chinese time goes, the Great Leader will be thought of as just another past emperor.  Anyone who tries to take over China bites a wooden leg, and after a while, the hurting teeth fall out.  China remains.

The idea of offering international aid to NK is appealing, but unrealistic.  The people are thoroughly propagandized, and the country runs on fear and famine.  While the leaders live in great comfort at the expense of the population, eventually there has to be a real "revolution of the proletariat".  Remember, rulers rule with the consent of the ruled.

The rest of the world would be better off starting a fifth column inside NK by encouraging the populace, setting up clandestine education and newspapers for them, and generally setting up and supporting a resistance to the Kims.  After all, what they have is a feudal monarchy.  We know this will fail if it is given the right push.  Charity is not it.  A set of bootstraps would be much better.

[-Lexus- 2]

Originally posted by: N_O_Body

Originally posted by: -Lexus-

The only way for China to allow a war with N-Korea is when they

are actually stupid enough to start a war. 

 quote>

You are a little ambiguous here.  Which they did you have in mind?

As for the NK's actually deploying a nuclear weapon, the U.S. will defend Japan for sure.  If it takes a few megatons air burst over Pyongyang, they will clear it with the Chinese first, and the Russians will go along.  No one else need be involved.  My only regret in that regard will be the loss of life of ordinary NK citizens, and it would probably miss the Kim clan.  However, it would be a nice lesson on the penalty of playing with fire.  The really big question is does Obama have the family jewels to do this without starting a game of Play Global Thermonuclear War.

quote>

North Korea has to be the obvious aggressor before China will allow a direct intervention. And even then they will likely not allow the west to intervene but instead do it themselves. They just dont want America on their doorstep. 

And really, you wanna punish the North Korean citizens? Dont you think they have been punished enough by 50 years of hunger, insufficient medical care, indoctrination and oppression? 

 And meh, North Korean tanks might be outdated, but that hardly matters. Its a lot of jungle and terrain that doesnt favor modern technology to much. They could easily turn it in a second Vietnam. Besides, if they are really loosing, who knows what a idiot like that dictator might due. Its not unlikely that he will choose to take down as many people with him, and with their nuclear arsenal that might potentially be a lot a of people. You cant risk it really.

And no, rulers dont rule with the approval of the people, except in a democracy. Dictators rule with the support of the army, and you wont win any revolution without the support of the army. Generally the reason why it is very hard to get rid of a dictator. 

[Aspire 3]

Originally posted by: Duke of York

Really North Korea is a extention of Chinese economy.

u]

quote>

it also is a huge burden and a pain to handle.

[Duke of York 23]

Originally posted by: Aspire

Originally posted by: Duke of York

Really North Korea is a extension of Chinese economy.

u]

quote>

it also is a huge burden and a pain to handle.quote>

 True , At its current State I see North Korea as a Welfare State of China. However one day I think North Korea will

get there act together and North Korea will end up being a asset. When these things take place I have no clue but

Time changes everything.

-DOY-

[Easy Bakes 253]

Originally posted by: N_O_Body

The rest of the world would be better off starting a fifth column inside NK by encouraging the populace, setting up clandestine education and newspapers for them, and generally setting up and supporting a resistance to the Kims.  After all, what they have is a feudal monarchy.  We know this will fail if it is given the right push.  Charity is not it.  A set of bootstraps would be much better.quote>

But isnt that the reason korean is in the state its in now?

Western powers meddeling in thier internal affairs for the last 200 years?

It not that hard to rile up a starving downtrodden population, the problem is you

need some one to lead them, and that were it all comes back to bite you in the ass

15 years later.

[hamsterTK 93]

I'm curious what will happen afterwards. I am probably in the minority of thinking a fifth column inciting revolution strategy would be a bad idea. It would go on and on and what might emerge may not be what we would want. After our liberation fighters win, won't they just want the country for themselves?

My ideal would be a short air war and drone attacks followed by a mostly peacekeeping/civil operation. For the NK'ians, everyone is equal whether civilian or former soldier, there will no committees, no circus. All inside will do exactly what the Sino-American coalition says, via force. Allow the former elite to immigrate to the US, in fact first take them as prisoners but then allow them to take an oath and stay here as civilians. You think I'm crazy allowing Kim's minions to be let off and come to the US, or think they deserve punishment? Well, see now you've got them out of the picture, and you have also prevented a lot of resistance by scared and mostly innocent privates or bureaucrats who would rather not get hung by a mob of their former people.

But really, you've removed all human capital from North Korea which leads to step 3. Zero chance of violence at this point, its neutered. Now come the South Korean and Chinese enterprises to rebuild the country. Eventually a slow reunification process begins

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Originally posted by: -Lexus-

And no, rulers dont rule with the approval of the people, except in a democracy. Dictators rule with the support of the army, and you wont win any revolution without the support of the army. Generally the reason why it is very hard to get rid of a dictator. 

quote>

You are confusing a representative government with the fact that people who are ruled do in fact allow despots to rule.  When it gets too much to take, something generally happens, like a coup d'etat, to change the situation.  Remember that there are many more ruled in proportion to rulers.  The Kim gang are adept at using propaganda to keep the people either quiet or a state of fear and despair.  The fact that they are still officially at war with the SK's helps them whip up the fervor.

Originally posted by: Easy Bakes

But isnt that the reason korean is in the state its in now?

Western powers meddeling in thier internal affairs for the last 200 years?

It not that hard to rile up a starving downtrodden population, the problem is you

need some one to lead them, and that were it all comes back to bite you in the ass

15 years later.quote>

Actually not quite on the mark.  The Japanese had Korea as a fiefdom for quite a while until  they lost it as part of the WW II settlement.  At one point, probably on paper at least, there was one Korea, but the Soviets interfered with this and caused the divide at the 38th parallel.  Seems like a lot of eastern influence in there.

If they can ever find a leader from the people who can stay alive, they will have a start.  No point in setting up yet another puppet regime.

[Nucks8 1]

I think that IF there is a THIRD Korean War( that's right, there was a second one already, apparently), the south will win quick.

North Korea's only ally is China, while the south will probably have most of the U.N supporting it.

My question is if there is a war, will North Korea launch it's nuclear arsenal against them?

Think about it for a while...

WOW! I did not think there would be this much of a responce!

Keep them coming

[Nucks8 1]

My sources ( the news) tell me that there was a rally at Pyongyang.

I also looked at the country's official website translated into english.

Check out the lies by copying the code below.

One thing I noticed was the Americans were called "Imperial Yankees".

It also said the US lost most to all of the supplies, weapons and men they brought over there!

http://www.korea-dpr.com/

[sneakeypete 16]

Where do people get this idea of a "short war" from? we're talking about a country with 4 million soilders. Sure, they might not have all the fancy planes and drones, (they're not using 50's stuff either though), but each man has a rifle, which is pretty much as deadly as any rifle that anyone else has. 3 million of them dug in in a defensive war in the north would not be in any way, shape or form easy. You can't have 3 million individual drone or airstrikes.

[Cobraroll 138]

One thing, though.

Would China want an united Korea?

Of course, it would remove most of the US troops in the area, but they would still probably leave a base there and have a bridgehead into the peninsula even if both Koreas suddenly united into a large, anti-violent utopia. In other words, the US army would be in the region, divided Korea or not.

The current situation has a weakened regime as a comfortable buffer sone between mainland China and the western-influenced South Korea. The threat of war has a negative effect on the South Korean economy, and even if the conflict was resolved without war, the enormous amount of refugees would seriously impact the country. All in all, if you were a major western corporation who wanted to invest in the region, China or Japan are obviously the better answers at the moment.

However, South Korea has a good infrastructure, the best Internet in the world (look it up), a massive and hard-working workforce, and first and foremost, they are not a communist regime (the business leaders of today grew up with communists portrayed as the world's bad guys, and China has major dark sides on the Human Right side of things). If the South Korean way would expande into the north, and all of Korea became like that, it could be a competitor to the Chinese economy, and if allied with Japan, it could get a lot of influence internationally.

If the two Koreas kept rivalling, neither would become big enough to outshine China. SK is an ally of the US, and if that alliance spread to NK as well, the US would get uncomfortably close.

Today, China is one of the reasons why North Korea doesn't face a full-scale famine. The black market is dominated by Chinese goods. Living at the other side of the world, I don't know what daily life in North Korea is like, but I believe the people there aren't stupid, and they know that they should be grateful towards their big brother in the East. While the West has enforced many economical restrictions on the nation, China has tried to hinder or soften them. I'd say China wants to keep this support among the North Korean people in case of a change in the regime. They have a humongous economic boom going; they can afford to buy support in the North for the time being. In any way, it's better for them to buy goodwill in NK than USA doing it.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

china & a united korea:  bigger and better market for china.

[Moshi 61]

I agree with Cobraroll, in that that is exactly what China is thinking. No country in the region (Russia, China, Japan, SK) wants another continuation of the war, for it will produce millions of refugees, seriously weaken the economy of the Korean peninsula, and pave the way for much more friction between the US and China. In fact, I doubt that anyone in the southern part of the peninsula is looking forward to a war. It is almost certain that NK will lose any war if it starts one, for the SK military is strong enough to overwhelm the NK forces, but considering NK's nuclear arsenal and how close Seoul is from the border, I am willing to bet that the SK capitol will be the largest target for the Kim regime. Combine this with the already shaky economy, and you've got a situation that has to be avoided at all costs.

Oh, and I seriously doubt the nuking of Pyongyang will have more strategic meaning than the fire-bombing of Tokyo. Internal and External pressure might even force the US to scale back the war, or even drop support of SK altogether, which is the worst scenario that can happen.

[danny_1990 0]

Why all this North Korea hate? I don't have any problems with the country, they've got some great music!

[Nucks8 1]

Originally posted by: Moshi

Internal and External pressure might even force the US to scale back the war, or even drop support of SK altogether, which is the worst scenario that can happen.quote>

I would hate for that to happen!

South Korea couldn't hold the north without support.

If the United States left, that would mean the UN would probably drop the problem, leaving the south defenceless

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Originally posted by: Nucks8

Originally posted by: Moshi

Internal and External pressure might even force the US to scale back the war, or even drop support of SK altogether, which is the worst scenario that can happen.quote>

I would hate for that to happen!

South Korea couldn't hold the north without support.

If the United States left, that would mean the UN would probably drop the problem, leaving the south defenceless

quote>

Now there you have it.  Whining about the possibility the the U.S. might pull out of Korean support.  Besides Japan, there are other countries in that region, notably Russia, that are right on the borders.  Russia may appear to be weak, but they have a lot of people in Siberia, to say nothing of a couple of major ports.  If you think the surrounding area is not strong enough to put down any mess the North may start, think again.  There are too many vested interests.  Besides, the U.S. has become an important trading partner with the Chinese so they won't go away from this area.

While the Japanese area, including the Koreas, are in the U.S.'s co-prosperity sphere, there are others, notably the Commonwealth of Nations led by the Australians in that area, and the French who have long standing interests quite close to the Sea of Japan.  I don't see the UN pulling out of this mess any time soon.

[Nucks8 1]

Originally posted by: danny_1990

Why all this North Korea hate? I don't have any problems with the country, they've got some great music!quote>

Umm... Because their leader wants Global Nuclear War!?

[-Lexus- 2]

Originally posted by: N_O_Body

Now there you have it.  Whining about the possibility the the U.S. might pull out of Korean support.  Besides Japan, there are other countries in that region, notably Russia, that are right on the borders.  Russia may appear to be weak, but they have a lot of people in Siberia, to say nothing of a couple of major ports.  If you think the surrounding area is not strong enough to put down any mess the North may start, think again.  There are too many vested interests.  Besides, the U.S. has become an important trading partner with the Chinese so they won't go away from this area.

While the Japanese area, including the Koreas, are in the U.S.'s co-prosperity sphere, there are others, notably the Commonwealth of Nations led by the Australians in that area, and the French who have long standing interests quite close to the Sea of Japan.  I don't see the UN pulling out of this mess any time soon.

quote>

Japan cant do ***** as their army is a self defense army. They are not allowed to meddle in other countries affairs military. Perhaps send a peace force after the fighting is done, but thats it. Dont count on Japan to do anything. 

Then there is Russia. Why would Russia care about South Korea? As far as I know they dont have much interests in Korea so why would they send their army to fight an expensive (and probably unpopular) war in a area they dont really give a ***** about. 

Americas interests in China are to great to risk messing up their relation. So if China doesnt want a war then America needs to make a choice. Its questionable if they go for fighting a costly and another very expensive war at a moment when their army is already in a severely weakened state. Its not unlikely that they will bail out if they can. 

And Danny, I somewhat doubt you actually heard North Korean music since its a media black hole and I dont think they export their music to other countries. 

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

Originally posted by: -Lexus-

Japan cant do ***** as their army is a self defense army. They are not allowed to meddle in other countries affairs military. Perhaps send a peace force after the fighting is done, but that's it. Don't count on Japan to do anything. 

Then there is Russia. Why would Russia care about South Korea? As far as I know they don't have much interests in Korea so why would they send their army to fight an expensive (and probably unpopular) war in a area they don't really give a ***** about. 

Americas interests in China are to great to risk messing up their relation. So if China doesn't want a war then America needs to make a choice. Its questionable if they go for fighting a costly and another very expensive war at a moment when their army is already in a severely weakened state. Its not unlikely that they will bail out if they can. 

And Danny, I somewhat doubt you actually heard North Korean music since its a media black hole and I don't think they export their music to other countries. 

quote>

Constitutional niceties in Japan won't hold up if the chips are down.  Too many F words my lad, which indicates you are overexcited.  When realpolitik kicks in, all the nice to haves and could bes go out the window.  The NK's are skating on very thin ice.

[Nucks8 1]

Originally posted by: -Lexus-

quote>

Japan cant do ***** as their army is a self defense army. They are not allowed to meddle in other countries affairs military. Perhaps send a peace force after the fighting is done, but thats it. Dont count on Japan to do anything. 

Then there is Russia. Why would Russia care about South Korea? As far as I know they dont have much interests in Korea so why would they send their army to fight an expensive (and probably unpopular) war in a area they dont really give a ***** about. 

Americas interests in China are to great to risk messing up their relation. So if China doesnt want a war then America needs to make a choice. Its questionable if they go for fighting a costly and another very expensive war at a moment when their army is already in a severely weakened state. Its not unlikely that they will bail out if they can. 

quote>

[Nucks8 1]

Japanese overseas assets in 1945 (1945, ¥15=1US$)
Country/region	Value (Yen)	Value (US Dollars)
Korea	7,025,600,000	468,370,000
Taiwan	42,542,000,000	2,846,100,000
North East China	146,532,000,000	9,768,800,000
North China	55,437,000,000	3,695,800,000
Central South China	36,718,000,000	2,447,900,000
Others	28,014,000,000	1,867,600,000
Total	¥379,499,000,000	$25,300,000,000

1012080000+25300000000=$26312080000

Over 25 Billion dollars!

Quote from Wikipedia:

Japan's military is restricted by the Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which renounces Japan's right to declare war or use military force as a means of settling international disputes.

See, Japan can do NOTHING.

[A Nonny Moose 8,261]

The JDF exists and is well-armed.  If the NK's started something, the Japanese would find a way to defend against the aggressor by using their troops, even if it was only to relieve others from duty at Japanese domiciled bases.  And if anyone shot at them, they would definitely shoot back.  Put not your faith in words on paper.  Both love and war will find a way.

[-Lexus- 2]

Originally posted by: N_O_Body

The JDF exists and is well-armed.  If the NK's started something, the Japanese would find a way to defend against the aggressor by using their troops, even if it was only to relieve others from duty at Japanese domiciled bases.  And if anyone shot at them, they would definitely shoot back.  Put not your faith in words on paper.  Both love and war will find a way.

quote>

Yes, once they are getting shot at on their home soil then they could fight back. As long as they are not under attack they cannot do anything. 

Besides, their army is based around self defense. Their doctrines are self defense doctrines and their equipment is also build on defense. They would be pretty ineffective as a attacking army.