Hurricane Tomas Devastates Haiti

[un1 41]

Hurricane Tomas has survived the very hostile conditions of the east Caribbean Sea where there was wind shear of 30kts that literally ripped this former category 2 hurricane just after it hit St Lucia to a small tropical storm. This area at this time of the year is known as the hurricane graveyard for all the hurricanes that the shear has ripped apart. Ever since this stormed formed almost a week ago the models have been showing a landfall in Haiti, however now that it has survived the hurricane graveyard the odds of it hitting Haiti is creeping higher.

Right now the NHC is predicting a category 2 storm with 105mph winds when it makes landfall. They also give it a 19% chance of becoming a category 3 hurricane with 110mph winds. Due to the less shear the next few days and the lack of dry air, this hurricane will explode tomorrow to a category 1 hurricane, category 2 hurricane on Thursday and make landfall at Haiti on Friday. Jeff Masters from the Wunderblog says that if Tomas really does rapidly intensify like it probably will in the next few days, the odds of a categoy 3 hurricane hit could be upgraded to 40%.

There is a slight chance Haiti could be saved however, if Tomas misses a trough that would turn him sharply towards Haiti it will continue across the Caribbean Sea towards Cuba/Florida as a much larger storm, the NHC is giving this a little possibility since most of the models show it turning.

Current forecast shows exactly what I said:

Two out of the 5 intensity models show Tomas peaking as a weak category 3 hurricane, and 4 of five do agree that it will reintensify as a hurricane. (Intensity model link - OUTDATED)

What makes this storm so dangerous is that  there are 1million + people living in camps on the hillsides and due to the fact that there are no trees on the hills, landslides are very likely and the lack of infrastructure makes it very hard to evacuate and once the storm hits it will be hard to reach the camps on the deadly hills. Like everyone has been saying, this could be very very bad, much worse than the earthquake if every bad thing possible happens (which is looking likelier more everyday)

[Barbarossa 51]

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  Edited September 8, 2012 by Barbarossa  

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Weather forecasting is dicey at best.  The programmed models take more than 24 hours to run, so they have to stop them and read partial results while injecting more data.  Here is the forecast track from the Canadian Weather Centre.

Looks like Hispaniola is going to get it dead center.  Poor people, earthquake, destruction, epidemic, and now this.  Might be a good place to be from (far from).

[un1 41]

...and at the 5PM EDT update, the NHC moved the path to barely clipping Haiti instead of directly hitting it. Hurricane watch for all of Jamaica also issued.

The hurricane hunters also determined that Tomas is on the verge of being a tropical depression, but is still forecasted to strengthen to cat 2/3 when it makes its closest approach to Haiti.

Track + expected intensity:

[Ocram's Razr 964]

Wow, that is really bad luck (karma, wrath, magic, juju, voodoo) or just a really bad coincidence. Tents cannot hold up to hurricanes. I think I will stop playing Zynga Games because of this.

[nathanthemayor 1,263]

Not looking good...this may be a repeat of the Earthquake or at least the effects.

[Barbarossa 51]

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  Edited September 8, 2012 by Barbarossa  

[Ocram's Razr 964]

I like Jamaica, too bad this hurricane will hit it hardest. Cuba and Hispa

[un1 41]

As of right now its going to completely miss Jamaica, if it does become large enough to actually cause some damage in Jamaica it will probably be 30-40 mph winds and moderate rainfall... Right now, Tomas is still forecasted to make landfall (or miss by 10 miles, looks really close to land if its not over land) with 100-110mph winds and forecasted heavy rainfall, so it looks like Haiti will be hit the worst.

Barbarossa: Season ends November 30th when it comes to issuing updates every 6 hours of possible tropical cyclone formations, but the last storm usually forms in late November- late December.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

There is a cautionary ditty about hurricanes that I don't have all of but the last two lines are:

October, all over.

November, remember.

This may be going donw the drain due to the current global warming trend.

[un1 41]

Well...Tomas did decrease in intensity today...down to a tropical depression. Models still show an upgrade up to category 1-2 before landfall....some models even show it turning around and going back into the Caribbean, thus giving Haiti two hits instead of one. Hurricane hunters will fly into Tomas later today...also if Tomas can catch the trough today then we will more than likely see a Haiti landfall, there is still a slight possibility that he might not and will just make landfall somewhere else. Path hasnt changed ever since I last posted a track map so I wont post it now.

Jeff Masters from Wunderground (blog) said that even a hit as a tropical depression would be devastating...as last weeks minor rainfall killed 29 people.

[un1 41]

Double post but a lot happened at the 5PM EDT update....

Tomas caught the trough, he is going to get very close to Haiti (if he doesnt make landfall). Tomas re-intensified to a tropical storm. Tropical storm watch for: Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, Western Dominican Republic, Southern Bahamas. Tropical storm warning issued for all of Haiti. 33% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall (I think it will be slowly increasing as it gets closer however). Track hasnt changed much, but the forecast after it hits Haiti is shown a bit more. Expected winds at landfall right now is 70 mph, 5 mph short of a category 1 hurricane.

Landfall still expected for this Friday.

[redrummage 9]

That track right there looks like its going to hit one of the islands. If I were a betting man I'd say it is going to pass over Haiti as a hurricane. Its a shame that the people who get the worst trouble need it the least.

[un1 41]

Seems that Haiti isnt getting any luckier as time goes on...redrummage, if you were a betting man you would probably win. Hurricane warning issued for Haiti, hurricane watch issued for the southern Bahamas. Winds arent expected to exceed 75mph but as someone on one of my hurricanes forums said, it doesnt matter the wind speed it matters how long this hurricane will be over Haiti. The longer it is, the more rain, and right now its looking like it will be raining in Haiti for the next 3 days. This means that Tomas could possibly be the most deadly Atlantic hurricane on record (3 days of heavy rains + treeless hills = tons landslides and flash flooding) beating the "Great Hurricane" of 1780 that made landfall somewhere between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico as a possible category 5 hurricane killing 22,000 people (most deadly modern hurricane was Hurricane Mitch of 1998 which made landfall in Honduras and killed 19,000 people due to heavy rainfall and very slow movement)

As of right now the deadliness of this storm is really being shown...most of the main thunderstorms are on the east side of Tomas with the more northerly bands of rain already hitting Haiti.

Satellite imagery:

Track forecast:

I'll be back tomorrow with more information and news...

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Environment Canada's map (in co-operation with NOAA)

Of course, the probabliities fade as the cone widens.  Looks really bad for Port au Prince.  As far as I know, DART is still in Haiti with at least one ship, so we will remain helping to pick up the pieces.

[un1 41]

Radar imagery is showing heavy rain all around Tomas.... He however has moved over to the west more, and now looks more like Cuba and Jamaica will get most of the wind, but most of the rain still lies on the one side. Hurricane warning issued for: Haiti, Eastern Cuba and Southern Bahamas. Tropical storm warning issued for: Jamaica, Eastern Cuba. Tropical storm warning issued for: Western Dominican Republic. Luckily, the NHC is not forecasting it to become a hurricane once the eye has started to go over the Bahamas, but like I said earlier its the rain not wind that matters here.

Track:

Satellite imagery, Tomas has gotten smaller but now that he is starting to form a circle he could explode in intensity any second now..

[un1 41]

Another double post but...

Hurricane Tomas (currently tropical storm) has reached Haiti. The track hasn't changed since my last post, but it is going to be closer to Cuba than Haiti which is good...but most of the storm is on the Haiti side, thus giving Haiti a direct hit. From the satellite image below you can see Haiti is getting/will be getting almost all of the storm, despite it passing closer to Cuba.

As for the path like I said, hasn't changed much but the uncertainty cone no longer goes over Haiti.

Winds are 65mph with gusts up to hurricane strength (75mph), heavy rains are expected for Haiti over the next three days...good luck to everyone there.

Hurricane Tomas is still expected to become a hurricane before passing over the southern Bahamas. No new warnings have been issued in the past ~12 hours.

Going to change the thread title to "Passing Over Haiti" now.

Edit: At the 11:00PM EDT advisory the NHC has predicted that Tomas will become a category 1 hurricane before it passes Haiti. NHC also reports tropical storm force winds are now occurring on the Southwestern Coast of Haiti.

[Ocram's Razr 964]

Wow! Poor Haiti. Too bad the USA doesn't have enough money to support itself let alone its French Neighbor. Maybe France should provide more aid. France is the main reason for Haiti's current poverty.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

CBC News was reporting that some of the people in Haiti were refusing to evacuate the tent cities because they had the impression that it was a plot to take away their tents.  One wonders where stories like this start, and who benefits?  If they don't evacuate, many of them will lose more than their tents.

After all this time, where has all this distrust come from?  It is clear that they do not get current news and exist on rumors.  I know things are bad there, but who would believe, in these days of open communications, it would be as bad as that?

Let us all hope that things can improve in this stricken neighbor.  I don't think pouriing money and materials in there is helping as much as we had hoped.  They need a shot of hope, and some education.

[un1 41]

Situation keeps getting worse for Haiti....now that Hurricane Tomas is back to being a category 1 hurricane with 85mph winds, it is expected to restrengthen to a category 2 hurricane with 105mph winds over the Bahamas. Hurricane Tomas is half way across the island of Hispaniola, with hurricane force winds almost reaching the island. From satellite imagery, all of Haiti is covered by this storm as well as most of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm warning issued for Central Bahamas, tropical storm warning for Jamaica lifted.

Heavy rain continues to pound Haiti...but nothing else I can really say until the storm is over.

Track:

Satellite imagery:

In other news, plane crash that killed 68 in a tropical storm warning area, could be storm related if so Tomas is very close to beating Tropical Storm Mathew as the deadliest storm in 2010.

Edit: Just read on the Jeff Master's Wunderblog...

"Costa Rica mudslides kill 20

Mudslides killed at least 20 people in Costa Rica yesterday, after heavy rains sent mud rushing over at least five homes in San Antonio de Escazu, a suburb of the nation's capital. A very moist flow of Pacific air been drawn eastwards over Central America over the past three days by Hurricane Tomas, triggering the heavy rains in Costa Rica. This moisture has also been drawn into Hurricane Tomas, and is helping fuel the heavy rains over Haiti. Satellite observations (Figure 2) suggest that up to 6 inches of rain fell over Costa Rica during the 24 hours ending at 2am EDT this morning. Earlier in the week, an additional 2 - 6 inches of rain had fallen over the nation."

[un1 41]

The eye has passed Haiti, winds have died down to 75mph but still expected to increase before hitting shear of 50kts. 3 confirmed dead, the huge danger of floods and landslides still present. Earthquake ravaged town completely flooded apparently. Damage in St Lucia the worst it has ever been, Tomas is really a remarkable killer storm, the worst the Caribbean has seen since Paloma of 2008. Lots of people saying Tomas will be retired from the list of rotating names, I think it will too. Heavy rain will continue for one day, but things seem to be improving for them. Haiti is very lucky (though not as lucky as the US has been this year) and lets hope this luck continues..Haiti needs it.

Most of the storm still is over Haiti, like it has been for the past 48 hours.

[nathanthemayor 1,263]

We will see what happens when the storm ends....

[un1 41]

Hurricane Tomas is now a tropical storm again, and in the open Atlantic. Tropical storm warnings for: northern Haiti, Southern Bahamas. Damage in Haiti so far unknown, same goes with Cuba, Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. Tomas itself will be extra tropical tomorrow, heading towards Africa. So this will be my last advisory, all the next posts will be of the destruction..

Rainbands no longer over Haiti.

[nathanthemayor 1,263]

So far, According to cnn, the storm passed 140 miles west of the capital of Haiti. There was some flooding on streets. It doesnot mention the deaths so far.

[un1 41]

NHC issued its last advisory as it being a tropical cyclone, thus meaning it is a extra-tropical storm. (still has 60mph winds though)

Reports from Haiti confirm 8 deaths with 2 missing, damage apparently is very extensive closer to the center of the hurricane including many villages completely lost due to flooding. No damage from Cuba though, damage in Turks and Caicos still unknown.

[un1 41]

Flooding damage looks...pretty bad.

Aerial Views of Haiti the Day After Hurricane Tomas

Looks pretty bad for the cholera outbreak.

[nathanthemayor 1,263]

They say that the cholara outbreak is going to get worse after this...

[Easy Bakes 253]

Wow  1st a 7.0 Earth quake in January and now a Hurricane floods the place.

[Ocram's Razr 964]

I have decided to stay away from all areas hit by that hurricane until they clean up.

[sneakeypete 16]

Were you planning on going to Hati?