un1

Congratulations!

And a brief update.. The tropics are quiet for now. However, October has been historically some of the busiest months of the year as the Western Pacific basin, the basin wiht the most activity, peaks in this month. In the Atlantic, many signs are pointing towards a very active October this year also. Tropical Storm Ophelia rapidly intensified into the strongest storm this year, a 140mph category 4 hurricane just east of Bermuda a few days ago. She hit Newfoundland as a weakening tropical storm. Super Typhoon Nalgae also rapidly intensified into one of the strongest storms this year in the Pacific, a 155mph super typhoon just as he made landfall in the Philippines. The only active storm in the world right now is Tropical Storm Philippe in the Atlantic, who is on the verge of being the 5th hurricane of the year and is likely to become a hurricane in the next few days. That's all for now, I'll have an update when Rina forms, which is likely to be in a few days.

Tropical Storm Ophelia formed in the Atlantic and is currently heading towards Bermuda and Newfoundland, however that won't be for a few days. A storm in the Eastern Pacific, named Hilary, rapidly intensified into a 145mph category 4 hurricane yesterday and has maintained her strength today. Despite being so close to Mexico, she actually poses very little threat to Mexico and has only dropped 3 inches of rain and gave them 40mph winds. The NHC has her going out to sea, however some models have Hilary going into Mexico a few days out. And to end this update a new storm in the Western Pacific bears lots of watching. Currently only a tropical storm, however the forecast is for a category 4 strength typhoon landfall in the Philippines. Might surprise you, but this actually isn't actually that rare. 1 super typhoon (155mph sustained winds or more) already made landfall on the Philippines this year. Also last year in October, Typhoon Megi crashed into Luzon at record intensity of 885mb and 185mph winds. To put that into comparison, that is one of the strongest storms to ever make landfall in the world.

Well Roke is a typhoon now! Last night Roke put on an impressive display of rapid intensification and became a category 3 strength hurricane with 1-minute sustained winds of 125mph. Roke has since weakened to a strong category 2 strength hurricane. Because of this, Roke is now forecast to make landfall as a typhoon on Japan in the same place that Typhoon Talas made landfall a few weeks ago. Roke is also expected to hit the earthquake zone as a minimal typhoon. Talas caused devastating floods in Japan and killed over 100 people. Pretty much, Japan is in the worst possible position for Roke right now. Recovery from the earthquake and the floods from Talas is still ongoing where Roke is expected to make landfall. Over on the Atlantic side, a wave named invest 98L has been given a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression (16) or a tropical storm (Ophelia) in 48 hours. I believe that 98L will become TD16/TSOphelia later today. Currently the models are unsure of 98L's path westward, with some models showing 98L going through the heart of the Caribbean or 98L turning sharply out to sea.

Sonca is actually heading out to sea and Roke is heading for Japan, but is not a typhoon.

Not much has happened since what I said in the last update. Katia smacked the UK a few days ago, Nate succumbed to dry air in the Bay of Campeche and never became a hurricane and went into Mexico as a weak tropical storm that caused very little damage. Maria plowed over the Lesser Antilles causing only large damage to Puerto Rico in form of flooding. Maria spent 8 days as a tropical storm struggling to reach hurricane status. She attempted it 2 times, and then the 3rd try... ...MARIA BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... Maria brushed Bermuda today, causing unknown damage however it is believed to be minimal damage. The forecast track currently has Maria making landfall as a 75mph category 1 hurricane in 24 hours, after reaching a peak of 85mph winds just 12 hours before. Damage in Newfoundland should be no where near as bad as the damage Igor caused. Igor made landfall in Newfoundland almost exactly this time last year despite being at the same intensity at landfall.

Sorry for a late response, I'm not sure but I believe there is a tourist limit. However this could just be my low tourism rating at the time since my island was only a few years old when I tried tourism. So I'm not sure, but from fan complaints of the kalypso forums there is some form of tourist limit.

Quite an insane year in the Atlantic right now. If 2 more tropical storms form before September 17th, we will be number one for earliest 16th storm formation, beating 2005. Both the storms I indicated in my last post have formed, 95L beating the Bay of Campeche wave to Maria by only a few hours. Katia is no longer the main story as Nate is now the greatest concern to any land area. I'll start off with Katia anyways. Katia is still on a track out to sea and will likely hit Europe as a massive post-tropical cyclone. The only concern in the near future is high surf and dangerous rip currents on Bermuda and the East Coast of North America. 95L became Tropical Depression 15 later on September 5th and became Tropical Storm Maria yesterday, beating the wave in the southern GoM (which was then 96L) by 6 hours to the name Maria. Maria has reached her 1st peak of 50mph as she is moving ahead of herself too quickly to retain strength. She is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later and then restrengthen to a near hurricane strength tropical storm near the Bahamas. While the weakening to a tropical depression is a good thing to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico who are expected to get a direct hit from Maria, this will cause a problem in the future as weaker storms stay further south than stronger storms and could lead Maria into Florida if she doesn't strengthen much until the Bahamas. However for now there seems to be a higher chance of a curve out to sea after affecting PR and skimming the Bahamas. She isn't looking well at all today (if anything, worse than she did a few hours before she became a tropical cyclone): Then we come to Nate. Nate rapidly developed into a 45mph storm yesterday and has continued strengthening at a quick pace and is currently at 70mph, 5mph from hurricane strength. As of right now, Nate looks nothing like a near hurricane tropical storm. He lacks deep convection over his center and any deep convection in the northern 2 quadrants because of dry air. However conditions will improve over time and the NHC predicts a category 2 storm in 5 days. The track is one of the most uncertain tracks I have ever seen (as you can tell from the huge cone). Models show this storm going into pretty much any possible locations Nate can get to on the gulf coast...all but Texas of course, who really needs this storm the most. Some models for Nate, showing the uncertainty here: It seems more logical that Nate will go north into Louisiana, but the lack of model support for that now means that this storm could do really anything. Hopefully with the hurricane hunter data we will finally start seeing the models agree with each other more.

Like gamzdude said, Lee is now gone and we have the next set of storms to talk about already. The average peak of the season is on September 10th so there will be a lot of activity for the next month! Top story is Katia for now who has become the strongest storm this year (however Irene's lowest pressure was lower than Katia's current pressure by 4mb). ...KATIA BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD ALONG U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA... Good news is, Katia is expected to pass harmlessly out to sea. Now of course that could change at any time and it is always best to watch a storm until it has past you. If you are concerned about any effects that you might receive from Katia here is a good chart posted by the NHC demonstrating the possibility of tropical storm force winds in your area (40mph or more/35kts or more). As you can tell Bermuda has the highest chance of TS force winds, currently at 40% chance. The next storm off of Africa is coming, 95L, which could become Maria or Nate in the next couple days as he heads westward. NHC gives this a 60% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. Due to changing pattern the models are very uncertain about the path after 3 days. Personally I have no clue where this storm will go and it is worth watching as 95L crosses the central Atlantic. There is also another storm predicted to develop according to the models, this time in the south eastern Gulf. The models are unsure of where this storm will go or what intensity it will be at. Most models show a tropical storm making it's way east to Florida. Currently this storm is in a race to Maria with 95L in terms of names, however 95L has a fair advantage being already fairly well developed but this storm has the advantage of being in very good conditions for development. This storm actually split off of Lee and is heading north into the Bay of Campeche where it will likely develop. And to end this update, I feel like showing the SST map for the entire world. As you can tell, the 3rd hottest sea surface temperatures are in the exact spot that the above wave is going to develop over. Might be something to watch for, however shear and dry air will be heavy for this storm just as it has been for the last 2 Gulf storms, Don and Lee.

Reports from Texas says that Lee has actually made the problem worse. Since Lee isn't giving Texas much rain, he is giving them winds which are spreading the fires rapidly. So soon the US will have an area that is in a horrible drought and everything is burning and then just 300 miles away there will be epic floods.

Tropical Storm Lee has made landfall in Southern Louisiana as a 45mph tropical storm last night. Wind and surge damages should be fairly minimal, it's the tornadoes and flooding you should be concerned about. This is a slow moving storm and in some areas there will be tons of rain. In the mountainous areas that are likely to be affected by Lee, flash flooding is a real threat to you. Rain from tropical storms over mountains have been known to be cause of some of the greatest rainfall amounts ever recorded. Most of Lee's convection is to the south east of Lee because of the dry Texas air he is ingesting, so if anyone is on the east side of the storm be prepared to get stronger winds and more rain than someone on the west side. Lee formed on September 1st in the central Gulf of Mexico. Lee strengthened to a 60mph storm before he neared land yesterday despite sucking in tons of dry air from the Texas drought. As of the 11AM EST update, Hurricane Katia has rapidly intensified into a category 2 hurricane with 100mph winds. The track remains very uncertain 3-5 days out, however Canada remains a likely target from this storm. I'll have an update when Katia strengthens to a major hurricane (category 3 and higher), if she does.

Lee is a slow moving storm so he will probably drop tons of rain anywhere near the center. He is also fairly weak and shouldn't have too strong of winds out in the "Moderate damage zone". The real concern is flash flooding inland (a weakening TS over mountains usually causes most rainfall records), mudslides (especially after all the rain you guys in NC have gotten this year) and tornadoes (yes, they exist and they are a real threat from tropical cyclones over land), but other than that wind and storm surge damage shouldn't be too bad at all for anyone on the coast. However, Lee isn't the most organized storm and the main of his strength is on the south east side of him so anyone on the east side of the current NHC track should be wary of heavy rain and strong winds. Like everyone else said, follow your local authorities on what you should do to prepare. I'm just saying some of the common side effects of tropical cyclones far inland that you could expect from what we know about where you live.

I bought the game yesterday on Steam and I have played it for 7 hours so far. I have gone through all 4 tutorials and the first 3 campaigns so here is my thoughts on Tropico 4.... (and yes, I did finish all the T3 scenarios before T4 came out ) The first thing I noticed right from the start is that the graphic quality has been lowered some, but are pretty similar. Tropico 3 on medium graphics: Tropico 4 on high graphics: The second thing I noticed was that the bases for the buildings now change with the surroundings. Before they were concrete below and around a certain dimension of the building. Now they depend on the base of the buildings next to them: (Look at the garage and cabaret) Of course this isn't a big thing, but it ruins the sidewalk views for me sadly. :/ Tropico 3: Tropico 4: It will just take me a while to get used to it I think. The only major change to graphics is the new water/waves texture, which I absolutely love. The building textures for many buildings and sidewalk textures have also changed: Anyways onto the more important things. The third thing I noticed was that financial aid has been doubled. You pretty much get a ton of free money now, in fact in the 3 games I played I haven't been in debt once. Also the happiness is way easier to increase. Rarely would I have been at 63% happiness with no churches in 1968 in Tropico 3. However the minimum requirements to make a citizen rebel is way lower. They also came up with a system that at a certain point a citizen who is usually unemployed and unhappy will become a criminal and rob rich people. The thing is, once they are a criminal they die a criminal. :/ Except for women, if they have a child they will turn into a mother and then become unemployed once they have their baby. So I usually kill male criminals/old women criminals. 20 new buildings were added, but other than that the edicts are (nearly) the same as Tropico 3: Absolute Power. To go along with the buildings, they added interactive disasters. So far I've only gotten an earthquake, a tornado, a drought, a mine collapse and an oil spill. They made the game enjoyable, however the tornado animation took FOREVER to go through. They reduced the length of the earthquake, but the tornado took about 5 minutes to pass at maximum speed. I believe building a weather station can help give you awareness of incoming disasters and fire stations can help put out the fires that these disasters cause. This is the drought: The yellow indicators over the farm fields mean that the plants have died from not getting enough water. Oil spill: The combat mechanics have remained unchanged since Tropico 3. The uniforms of the soldiers/rebels haven't changed either. The factions in Tropico 4 have become more loud and annoying. The environmentalists are only happy if you recycle and build windmills and have very little logging. The religious have actually fallen to #2 in my list of the most annoying factions, as the environmentalists complain the most now. The communists and capitalists remain the easiest to please while the loyalists are annoying during the start of the game but are happier near the end. The only other features I can note is the new UI and the tasks feature. The new UI is pretty much a repaint of Tropico 3's with a bit more information related to disasters on some of the overlays. The tasks are repetitive as most of the optional ones are either trade requests from superpowers or factions complaining about something. The campaigns are quite a bit less fun now (in my opinion at least), there is no set goal that you know of until you are over half way through and the campaign map is gone. Now all you get is a journal of all the campaigns and very little information about what you are going into. The goal in the campaigns is usually to complete all mandatory tasks and it is usually unclear as to when the mandatory tasks end. Overall; I give it a 75% out of 100%. The game is good and not so buggy, however there are somethings that I feel are a downgrade from Tropico 3. Overall though the game is still very fun, just a bit easier. However if you already own Tropico 3: Absolute Power, the game is nearly an expansion pack and includes very little new game mechanics. Only the ministry and the interactive disasters are entirely new mechanics. The ministry is pretty much a way to make you spend more money to issue edicts, however the game is so easy now that money isn't much of a concern after 5 years for me. This game would be an 80% if the road length limit, the population limit (of 1200 people) and the tourists limit wasn't there. Hopefully they will address this in a patch and make the game a great game.

Well my vacation is starting to end, so I'll start updating again. It seems that Irene has caused enough damage to get into the top 20 of most damaging storms in the US. With preliminary damage reports near 10 billion including the Caribbean. Currently there is Tropical Storm Katia which is forecast to become a hurricane later today. This storm has a good chance of becoming the first Cape Verde major hurricane but will pose threats only to Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and possibly the Northern Lesser Antilles. You can see some dry air entrainment on the satellite (the fragmented look) which is currently holding her back from rapidly intensifying into anything. Dry air has actually held back every storm this year excluding Arlene and Harvey, which both died out because they made landfall not long after they formed. Down the road, the NHC currently has an area marked at 30% chance of formation in the next 48 hours. This storm isn't an invest yet but is likely to become one soon. Because it isn't an invest yet it isn't really super easy to get a satellite image for it. This storm is going north into the Gulf and is likely to develop there (3 of the 4 major global models show development). The Texas ridge will stop this from making landfall though and it is likely to stall out in the Gulf until it has a path which it can take somewhere. The models aren't in agreement as of where this storm will make landfall next.

Irene...has winds of 120mph and is moving NW at 12mph. Pressure is a low 954mb. Irene seems to be currently going under an eyewall replacement cycle. This will make the eye bigger and make it easier for the storm to strengthen. It will also temporarily lower its intensity and pressure. Current path takes it slightly west of the Outer Banks as a major hurricane. The uncertainty is still there, and there is a chance that it could make landfall on the outer banks. This hasn't changed much since yesterday, so we might be looking at Irene making landfall on the Outer Banks. However, there seems to be a very high chance that the outer banks will receive the brunt of Irene and I would highly recommend evacuating the Outer Banks region. If you live on the entire coast of NC as well as quite a bit inland, I would start preparing for tropical storm/hurricane force winds now. The storm has a huge wind field, with TS force winds extending 200+ miles and will create a high surge for such a weak storm. Once again, always follow the orders that your local authorities issue as they know more than me and have better control. The path then takes Irene to NYC as a 100mph, category 2 hurricane. After NY, the next forecast point is Maine as an 80mph storm. If this does indeed happen, I would strongly recommend preparing for hurricane force winds, and maybe even evacuating if you are in a low lying area on the entire coast line up from NC. This would be one of the worst disasters to happen to NY and New England in many many years. Of course, follow the local authorities advice when it comes to preparations and evacuation. I'm just saying you should consider this storm as a real threat to your life if you live on the entire US coast up from Wilmington, NC. Remember, you can rebuild your home but you can't rebuild yourself once you die.

Yeah, it looks terrible. We drove through Goderich the day before the tornado (coming up from Northern Ohio to Collingwood) and it really was a beautiful town. I don't quite remember anything like that, but if we are really only forecast to have 1 or 2 more storms after we exhaust the list of names the NHC might just add a few names to the list, such as they did in the 1985 Pacific hurricane season. Anyways, the models are shifting towards the east. Only few models show that the storm will make landfall in Florida, Georgia and SC. Most of them have shifted to the east, showing a NC hit. I would still watch this storm closely if you lived from Florida-North Carolina, as there is still uncertainty. However, the models are getting better data, so this eastward trend may be here to stay. I would definitely watch this storm closely if I lived between Myrtle Beach and Cape Hatteras. I would also prepare to evacuate (if you decide too, I would really recommend this), as this thing will be making landfall as a massive borderline category 3 storm, similar to Ike of 2008. As always, trust your local officials more than me, however my advice would be too follow what they say. If they say evacuate, evacuate. Also, if this eastward trend does continue to stay, there is a chance that this storm may threaten the rest of the east coast states/provinces all the way up to Newfoundland. Irene is still a category 2 storm as Hispaniola is disrupting her inner core, preventing any strengthening..for now.

Well, Irene is a lethal storm. Dry air and land interaction did not stop it from becoming upgrade to a category 2 a few minutes ago..a jump of 20mph winds in 3 hours....this might be a major hurricane by tomorrow over the southern Bahamas. She is indeed a very, very ugly storm. Anyone in the southeastern US coast should continue to monitor this storm very very closely.

Sorry about the complete lack of updates, I've been on vacation and I am enjoying it too much to be bothered to make updates. But I feel that an update is needed now. The tropical Atlantic has been spitting out many weak storms, nearly reaching the average of 11 storms per year and it isn't even September! When Irene formed it marked the 3rd earliest time that the 9th storm formed, following behind 2005 by a week or so and tying 1936. Dr. Jeff Masters from Wunderground says that at the current pace we will reach 24-27 storms, the second most active season on record following behind 2005. This would be the second time we will see the Greek alphabet used because the list of names will be exhausted (21 names on the list of names). Map of the track of all the storms so far this year. Round dots = has tropical cyclone characteristics, triangle dots = has some tropical cyclone characteristics but not all Dark blue dots = Winds of 39mph and less (tropical depression strength), light blue dots = 40mph-74mph winds (tropical storm strength) Irene formed on August 20th as a wave that came off of Africa. It quickly reached 50mph winds and passed over the Lesser Antilles barely a day after formation. The storm kept organizing, despite the models and the forecast saying that it wouldn't until later. Last night recon found winds of 75mph as the storm neared Puerto Rico, the NHC dismissed this for now and Irene officially made landfall on PR as a 70mph storm. Then the storm jumped..it jumped over PR and intensified to an 80mph storm, which it still is now and will likely remain until it passes just north of the Dominican Republic, sadly this pass will not do much more than stop the south side of the storm from developing deep convection and will not weaken the storm much. Damage reports from PR are not out yet, but the damage shouldn't be too bad. Neither should the damage in the Dominican Republic. Luckily this storm will mostly miss Haiti as a trof will pull the storm up into the Bahamas, however then into the south-east US. Hurricane Irene 6 hours ago. After the Bahamas, the track is very uncertain, so is the intensity forecast. The NHC currently has a major hurricane landfall in SC in 4 days, but it is very uncertain and will be much more certain in about 2 days. Models are very widespread, the thing is..they all predict a category 2 landfall somewhere on the US, so this storm poses a major threat from South Florida to North Carolina. Here is a very good exert from a blog post posted by a Wunderground meteorologist that I feel describes the situation better. "Track forecast for Irene The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas. Intensity forecast for Irene The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States." So, if you live from Key West to Cape Hatteras I would get your hurricane plans out and figure out what to do if you decide evacuate when they call for it. I would also watch this storm very closely. The NHC puts out advisory's and discussions every 3 hours when there is a tropical storm/hurricane watch/warning so I would make sure to monitor this storm closely. Don't make any plans to leave yet though, the uncertainty is way too huge to pinpoint a landfall location right now. For all we know it might go into Cuba or go out to sea. I would closely monitor the situation for now. If you live in Southern Bahamas, be prepared for hurricane like conditions tomorrow. In the Northern Bahamas, get ready for major hurricane like conditions. It's gonna be a crazy week. Remember, the storm can turn right into you at the last minute! (if you live on the SEUS coast)

Being 6 hours from the nearest group of ST members (Minneapolis), it isn't very easy for there to be a meet up close to me up here. I know of one other ST member from here, so a 2 people convention isn't really a great option. I don't even know vid that well either. Excluding the fact that I am under 18 and I leave in the middle of nowhere..I wouldn't mind going to a ST meet up. Though it would probably be the one in Toronto, only because dirk would be there. But yeah, all of this aside..I don't think a ST meet up would work at all or attract that many people.

Sorry I haven't been doing any updates..I updated my antivirus and my computer immediately started crashing, so after days of trying to fix it I uninstalled it. I also have been on a trip to Atlantic Canada/NEUS, but I haven't been able to use my computer until today. There isn't much to update, 111222333444's pictures describe the current situation well. Muifa is heading to Japan, Eugene is going out to sea and Emily isn't predictable. I'm not even sure what she will do right now, but Haiti will probably be devastated by all the tropical rain (unless it follows Dons path and dissipates minutes after landfall). Amazingly both Eugene and Muifa look very annular, which would be the first time on the globe there have been two annular tropical cyclones at once. Also, it is a very, very, very rare occurrence for there to even be an annular storm, with only a ~3% chance of a storm ever becoming annular. Somehow 3 storms in 2011 (Adrian, Eugene and Muifa) have become annular. Summary of the Worldwide Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Seasons We've had record activity so far this year in the Atlantic, with 3 storms forming during the month of July alone and Emily forming not even a day into August. However none of the 5 storms this year have become hurricanes. In the Eastern Pacific a nearly record 5 out of 5 storms have become hurricanes so far, 3 of those becoming major hurricanes. I'm unsure of what is going on right now and I don't think that this will continue into the peak of the season. The Western Pacific has been a bit slower compared to active years, however 2 storms have reached category 5 strength so far which means we have had a very normal year so far. The North Indian Ocean basin has had a very inactive start with only 3 depressions forming so far compared to 3 named storms before the end of June last year. The Southern Hemisphere seasons, excluding the South Pacific and the South Atlantic (which had its 3rd named storm ever form this year) were very inactive. The South Indian Ocean basin had the quietest year ever in the winter of 2010-2011, the Australian region had a majority of it's storms form in the South Pacific. The South Pacific had a normal year, however it was a near record years in terms of storms reaching major hurricane strength. The South Atlantic had Subtropical Storm Arani form making it one of the few years to have a subtropical/tropical storm form.

Nah, Southern Hemisphere cyclone season is November-May. The only totally notable storm this year was Yasi. ...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF DON APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST... (directly from the NHC) Here's a nice funktop picture of the blob known as Don. Don sustained itself overnight, but went quite a bit faster so I doubt it will get past 55mph winds. It is expected to make landfall in Corpus Christi in 12 hours, but due to the fact that the center of the storm isn't fully covered in convection (it is getting pulled to the north) most of the rain will occur in South Texas south of Corpus Christi. The latest Brownsville radar imagery shows the center not being in the main part of the storm itself and showing most of the rain being far south, thus limiting the rain to South Texas (other than the occasional popup thunderstorm in the north). The rain isn't too heavy so this storm should be a good way to start ending a drought. Looking ahead, we have our first Cape Verde invest (invest 91L) which is expected to develop into Emily. Most of the intensity models take her up to major hurricane strength before turning northward. After that turn the models aren't in great agreement of where she will head. Personally I think that she will go west through the Caribbean as even a slight 1mph slower/faster for the next 5 days will make Emily miss the trough and make her head towards Mexico. The NHC gives 91L a 30% chance of developing in the next 48 hours, which I agree with. The NHC doesn't post it in their advisories since they know it's only temporary to the night/day. Though Don did actually strengthen last night during DMIN. Wind shear is still partially shearing itself south (which is part of the reason the center is north of the main area of convection). Though not by much, shear is limiting any large rapid intensification attempts.

Hurricane research does actually have economical benefits. Don is going down as my least favourite storm to track. Due to it's small size and hostile conditions in the gulf, it's intensity is fluctuating very rapidly, making it nearly impossible to predict easily (so far nearly all of the NHC forecasts have been wrong). It seems to be following the diurnal pressure cycles very well, nearly falling apart in every DMIN (Diurnal pressure minimum; night) and nearly becoming a hurricane in every DMAX (Diurnal pressure maximum; day). However this DMAX it has built itself a nice anticyclone and is in a better environment in form of wind shear and dry air (especially now as it's core is covered completely by deep convection). As of now, I admit defeat to my forecast, but I feel the chance for a minimal hurricane is there. I don't think we will have a good idea of what this storm will bring until tomorrow, to see if it survives DMIN/gets stronger during DMIN. If it strengthens this DMIN, I think this storm could make landfall near/at hurricane strength. If it repeats what it did last night (fall apart), a 50mph, incredibly small storm is more likely. It will make landfall at DMIN (early Saturday morning) so that will probably reduce its damage, but also its rain, which is very much needed right now and is the only good thing this storm is bringing. Currently all the models still point to just south of Corpus Christi, though landfall location will be determined tonight by how DMIN affects it. I'll have an update on how it did overnight during DMIN and my more conservative forecast tomorrow.

...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... (directly from the NHC) Tropical Storm Don has formed this evening and currently has winds of 40mph and a pressure of 1000mb. All the models have changed to taking this storm directly into Corpus Christi, Texas, again all with different intensity, leading the NHC to a conservative path with Don making landfall at 65mph. I do not think Don will make landfall as a tropical storm. I still feel that we could see a category 1-3 storm make landfall, especially since this storm is very very (eerily) similar to 1970s Hurricane Celia. Anyways, this storm is very small, meaning it is incredibly easy for it to have rapid changes in intensity, so anyone in the way should be watching NHC's 3 hour updates (starting sometime tonight or tomorrow). Here's the extent of Don's TS force winds right now, he's a very very tiny storm (not something you would expect from a manly name like Don )! Interesting thing to note today is that US congress made a proposal to cut hurricane research funding by 40%, however I bet that if Don makes landfall as a category 3 storm that is similar to Celia (ie. becomes a category 3 overnight and washes away all of Corpus Christi), that the bill will be changed to a funding increase of 40%.

Nah, that's just a model forecast. If a category 3 storm was really bearing down on the US, it would be on the media everywhere... But that is what this storm is looking like. The models have shifted northward on a course more towards Corpus Christi with a few models here and there having the storm go up into Houston/Galveston. It's developing quickly too, it is really close to tropical depression status. The NHC has it at an 80% chance of forming in the next 48 hours, but I think that is more likely 99%, they are just waiting for the hurricane hunters to confirm it meets the characteristics of a tropical cyclone. The forecast is pretty out there, the storm is really small, making it easier for it to dodge the hostile conditions in the Gulf and explode into a large storm. There is some doubt as too if it can do that, so I'm thinking a storm similar to Dolly of the 2008 season just further north. I leave you with a webcam picture of Cancun looking into the center of invest 90l, soon to be TD4/Don.