The Great Depression - result of aging population? (SC3)

Contributor/author(s): Teoh Ren Jie

It appears, from reading previous articles related to this problem, and from my own observations, that the so-called "Great Depression" can and will affect any city that has been played for quite some time, say for 3-400 years.

The Great Depression is closely linked to changes in the city’s demography, since it only occurs when the economically active population is less than half of the total population. In fact, this means you can also "predict" a Great Depression in your city – by looking out for trouble signs in your population/demography bar graph. Shown below is a sure sign of an impending Great Depression in a mature city: The aging population.

This city demography, as seen in the diagram example below, is likened to the Stage 3 demography of a country in which the birth is falling, and the death rate is low.

In this example, since the work force constitutes 56% of the total population, the economy is still doing well. But the birth rate has fallen, and should it continue to decrease further, or remain constant at this current level, the bulk of the adult population, which is now in the work force, would, within 40-50 years, would be phased out of the work force into the ages above 70. This is when would have aged, and the Great Depression would set in.

Case Study 1: Xijing (by Teoh Ren Jie)

In this example we can see that the population has aged due to a gently decreasing birth rate over the past 60 years, with an appreciable proportion of people aged 70 and beyond outside of the work force.

A Great Depression would set in within of 10-20 years, in this case. But it would not last very long (about 20-30 years) for there is also a trend of an increasing birth rate, compared to when if the birth rate is still decreasing! We can also postulate that during the Great Depression, the disparity between the work force and the total population is worsened by the additional bulk of young people aged between 0 to 20 years of age who are outside the work force.

Case Study 2: Knebelville (by Scott Knebel)

This is one case where the birth rate has decreased rather steeply for the past 40 years, and the population is fast aging.

We cannot predict if the birth rate is going to continue to increase steeply, decrease further or remain constant at its current level. But we can tell that a Great Depression would set in within 25-30 years. If the birth rate is to continue to increase, chances are that it would last for about 30-50 years. Otherwise it may even last much longer, perhaps up to 70 years!

What can we do to prevent a Great Depression when we see a population graph that points towards an aging population? Honestly, nothing much can be done. There are neither ordinances to encourage more births, nor are there any which can be repealed to make your city more "unfriendly" to the aged, or to make the healthy aged more economically productive.

A wild idea I have is to emasculate the healthcare system in the city by building fewer hospitals, not enacting related ordinances such as "Free Clinics". This would lower the life expectancy, making your Sims expire earlier, thus you may not have to worry too much about an aging population. However, doing so may have far more implications and repercussions than anyone can imagine. I have not done so myself before, and I don’t suggest that you try it in your beloved city, unless you wish to help us provide a foolproof prevention method to the Great Depression.

See also
The Great Depression
Dealing with the Great Depression
Avoiding the Great Depression all together
Life expectancy at 90: dire implications!
Preventing depressions