Australian Federal Election

[Sam 163]

Originally posted by: A Nonny Moose

I find Australian politics even more convoluted than ours, so I wish them good luck.  The idea of running as a coalition gives me deep chills, and I gather the people of Australia felt the same.

quote>

Well our conservative side has been a coalition for a long time, since neither of those parties can get the numbers to govern in their own right, so when they speak about Tony Abbot's party, it is actually already a coalition.  As of this election it will likely be a coalition of at least four parties - the Liberals (actually conservative here), the Nationals (formerly the country party), the Liberal National Party (Queensland merger of the Liberal and National parties in that state to form a new party) and the Country Liberal Party (Northern Territory, newly elected member in the seat of Solomon).

For that reason I don't think Tony Abbot's side has much to cheer about. His side didn't win a clear majority and it took a congolmeration of four parties to not get that clear majority. To govern he would have to add on a few independents to that mix.

The Labor party is a single party and is traditionally farly left but in recent years has been chasing the conservatives  through the blue end of the spectrum. (Our spectrum is reversed compared to the US, the blue team is conservative).

The strong showing of the Coalition in Queensland is being attributed in part to the merger of the Liberal and National parties two years ago in that state into a single party, the Liberal National Party. This would have put to an end the three cornered contests that sometimes occurred when both a Liberal and a National candidate were standing in the same electorate against a Labor candidate.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

There is something to be said for run off elections.  Maybe they should just try again.

Our life in Canada became complicated when the Bloc Quebecois pulled out of the old Progressive Conservative party, and nearly sank the ship of state.  Pulling Quebec out of Canada would be like opening the sea cocks on the Titanic.  The BQ have been trying to do this ever since, and now, much to our amusement.  They have lost at least two referendums on separation and it was Quebec's own people who voted "non" each time.  The Rest of Canada (TROC) are now mildly alarmed and mostly amused when this spectre is raised on its ragged drapeau again.  However, if we ever got into a dead heat the way you have in Oz, I don't know what would happen.  The GG would probably have a heart attack.  We have four strong parties and the Greens, so it is hard to think of the two minor parties not getting any seats.  If there was a dead heat between the Liberals and the Conservatives, there would be a lot of negotiations, principally with the New Democrats (Socialist to the bone).  The other choice would be to take the BQ back into the conservatives, and that is anathema.

[sixers33 3]

We really don't want to go back to the polls..the campaigns have been crap, neither side have been all that legitimate, people are voting for who they dislike less at this point in time.

Atm, independents remain unimpressed by the coalitions response to their demands, however the three independents, their electorates all want them to side with the coalition.

[astronelson 339]

Well, it all comes down to the last seat... Brisbane.

ABC has the ALP and the Liberal/National coalition tied on 72 seats each. The Liberals are leading in Brisbane with 50.5% of the vote counted so far (2 party preferred, 79.8% counted). To win, they will need at least 46,111 votes. So far (2PP figures) they have 35,819. The ALP is close behind on 35,076. There's not much in it.

The results for Brisbane raise a question for me - who has the LNP as their second preference after voting Greens?

Useless statistics time: The total number of people who voted in this election is greater than what the entire population of Australia was last time there was a hung parliament, by a ratio of roughly 2:1.

There are 5 members of parliament who were alive the last time we had a hung parliament. The oldest one lost his seat this election.

The last time we had a one-term government was 1931. That was Labor too, although the Great Depression had something to do with it. They were elected in 1929, after all.

[Sam 163]

I think the AEC is counting Brisbane as an LNP win (non-final). http://vtr.aec.gov.au/

I went looking for preference listings as I thought the AEC would have them for each seat but I couldn't see a list anywhere there except the Senate Group Voting Tickets.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Well, since the people voted for "none of the above" why not schedule a new election and forbid all those who ran in this one to run?  Seems like you need a new set of people in the capital, eh?

[Sam 163]

Originally posted by: A Nonny Moose

Well, since the people voted for "none of the above" why not schedule a new election and forbid all those who ran in this one to run?  Seems like you need a new set of people in the capital, eh?

quote>

In part our political leaders don't seem to have yet heard or understood that's what we were trying to say. That is the real disappointment out of all of this. The people have spoken and the pollies don't seem to be listening to what we said.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Aha!  Sounds like the Brits in their last go around.  Damn the people, we want what we want when we want it.  I am right, you know, it is time for a new set of idiots.

[astronelson 339]

The ABC has finally called Brisbane for the LNP.

The counting hasn't finished yet, although it's most of the way there. We should expect something to come from the independents sooner or later.

[sixers33 3]

LABOR has made extraordinary claims of vote tampering in the knife-edge seat of Boothby and is refusing to concede the seat until the resolution of a full inquiry.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/labor-makes-claims-of-vote-tampering-in-boothby/story-fn5rhd15-1225910892936

[astronelson 339]

The National party's Tony Crook intends to sit on the cross-benches. I'm not sure what this means for either side's potential to form government.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Cross-benches?  A new term for me.  I take it to mean he intends to leave his party and sit as an independent.  You seem to have a barrel of monkeys or two down there.

[sixers33 3]

INDEPENDENT candidate Andrew Wilkie has emerged pleased from his prime ministerial meeting, saying Julia Gillard was genuinely interested in supporting his push for national pokie machine reform.

That could bring it to:

ALP/Grns/Indp 74

Coalition 73

[sixers33 3]

INDEPENDENT MP Rob Oakeshott has warned Tony Abbott to pull his wayward MPs - and the National Party - into line or "forget" about being anointed prime minister.

http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/rein-in-your-mps-rob-oakeshott-warns-tony-abbott/story-fn5tas5k-1225911345298

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

I thought anointing was done by the Queen in the person of the Governor General, whom, I suppose, has kept quiet.

[sixers33 3]

Governor-General , not the Queen

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Originally posted by: sixers33

Governor-General , not the Queenquote>

A knee-jerk reaction.  I didn't say the Queen did it.  Read that sentence again.

[sneakeypete 16]

If the nationals guy from WA intends to sit cross bench, it could mean that each major party has 72 "proper" members each. Add onto that the greens member for melbourne and you have 73-72. Now, if Wilkie and the Nationals guy (guess i should learn his name) don't commit to any particular party, the 3 other independents might have no choice but side with the ALP to get a functioning government.

[sixers33 3]

TONY Abbott has pleaded for calm after a Liberal MP threatened the independents who will decide the next government, accusing them of holding the nation to ransom.

http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/tony-abbott-reins-in-coalition-mps/story-fn5tas5k-1225911444278

[sneakeypete 16]

Hehe.

Had One of the Independent MP's on one of the morning shows thismorning, didn't sound like it was anywhere near as serious as the media is trying to make out.

[A Nonny Moose 8,262]

Well, you really have some funny rules.  Here the party with the most seats, whether it is a majority or not is asked to form a government.  The number of seats is irrelevant.  What makes minority governments work, and we have had nothing but for the last while, is the subtle negotiations and agreements that happen behind the scenes.  Of course it is easier for us because we have four major parties, and we don't much care for coalitions, at all. 

The hottest time is when the party with the most seats has almost enough to have a majority, if only they could persuade some of the independents to join their party.  Things get very interesting, and the press gets very nosy, when this happens.  The last time, we wound up with a minority government anyway, as some of the independents wouldn't budge.  Lots of constituency consulting goes on in times like this, and most of them were told to stand firm.

[sixers33 3]

TREASURY has uncovered a "black hole" in the coalition's costings of at least $7 billion, independent MP Tony Windsor says.

It's put a significant question mark over whether he can support the coalition, saying it comes down to an issue of trust.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/coalition-blackhole-concerns-independent-mp-tony-windsor/story-fn5rhd15-1225913100312

Also, Greens have made a deal with Labor, so now it is effectively: 73-73 seats each.

[sixers33 3]

TREASURY has uncovered a "black hole" in the coalition's costings of at least $7 billion, independent MP Tony Windsor says.

It's put a significant question mark over whether he can support the coalition, saying it comes down to an issue of trust.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/coalition-blackhole-concerns-independent-mp-tony-windsor/story-fn5rhd15-1225913100312

Also, Greens have made a deal with Labor, so now it is effectively: 73-73 seats each.

[astronelson 339]

The ABC website has the Coalition on 73, with the qualifier "including Crook".

I think the Independents are going to side with Labor on this. Most of them, at least. I'd hate them to be split evenly, with 75 seats each side.

[astronelson 339]

The ABC website has the Coalition on 73, with the qualifier "including Crook".

I think the Independents are going to side with Labor on this. Most of them, at least. I'd hate them to be split evenly, with 75 seats each side.

[sixers33 3]

INDEPENDENT MP Andrew Wilkie has thrown his support behind Julia Gillard to form Government.

"I have decided to support the ALP, so a future Gillard labor government will have my vote," he said.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/independent-mp-andrew-wilkie/story-fn5rhd15-1225913373740

74-73 ALP's infront

[sixers33 3]

INDEPENDENT MP Andrew Wilkie has thrown his support behind Julia Gillard to form Government.

"I have decided to support the ALP, so a future Gillard labor government will have my vote," he said.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/independent-mp-andrew-wilkie/story-fn5rhd15-1225913373740

74-73 ALP's infront

[sixers33 3]

Astro: 

 

ABC Journalist:

@AndrewGreeneABC: Andew Wilkie is unlikely to reveal his decision today...

 

Sky News Journalist:

@David_Speers: Wilkie definitely is announcing his decision...

 

Hehe

? 

[sixers33 3]

Astro: 

 

ABC Journalist:

@AndrewGreeneABC: Andew Wilkie is unlikely to reveal his decision today...

 

Sky News Journalist:

@David_Speers: Wilkie definitely is announcing his decision...

 

Hehe

? 

[astronelson 339]

Your point, Sixers? Caution is always advisable in this kind of situation.