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_Michael

United Kingdom 2017 General Election (UK Political Happenings)

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On 18/01/2017 at 5:23 PM, _Michael said:

Vote Leave never said what type of Brexit they wanted, the Government were pro-remain: the whole order is messed up.

The thing is, that argument would only hold up in the event that those behind the Brexit campaign were in office and able to execute such a plan. Since they were not and were never going to be, win or lose, what we should have had is a "Plan B". That was the responsibility of the government themselves, but I suspect they felt the odds of a vote in favour of leaving the EU was too unlikely to bother. I love the way they then blame the non-ruling party who have no power whatsoever for not having made such a plan. Frankly, neither side had a plan for what to do after the vote. But in the grand scheme of things it's the government that really let us down the most.

On 20/03/2017 at 9:25 PM, _Michael said:

PM May has said Article 50 will be triggered on the 29th.

I wonder what the next two years will bring...

A lot of arguments, here say, rhetoric and higher prices for everything... so business as usual I'd imagine. The real question is actually what will the remaining members of the EU do in respect of us leaving. Will they seek to punish us, to send a warning to other countries that might be considering the same action? Or will they see things more pragmatically and try to work with us to make the split as amicable for both sides as possible. In many ways, the whole process can be likened to a divorce of a long-time married couple. If both parties agree to go through the process with mutual respect for each other, it will be fair less painless in the short term. Longer term, there is a higher chance of a friendly and cooperative relationship outside of marriage. But if the two sides decide to try and take the other for all they can, it turns into a nasty hateful affair that will ruin any chances of remaining civil in future. However, hovering over all this is the fact that all it takes is one EU nation to veto any part of such an agreement, to stop it happening. So the odds of any agreement being reached in two years is about 0%. That will leave the rather inept situation where we won't be part of the EU, but will still be acting as if we are. Since you can't just disband everything overnight. Moorover, this process will likely take a decade or more to really see the UK completely clear of the EU. The amount of red tape and practical work involved is simply staggering. Given the governments track record on preparing for the possibility of Brexit, I wouldn't count on them getting this together for a very long time.

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  • Original Poster
  • So Mrs. May has called a snap election for June this year.

    I reckon the Tories are going to win by a landslide, similar to Labour in 97.

    What are people's thoughts on this?
    Is it needed?
    Will it provide stability and certainty like Mrs. May promises it will?

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    1 hour ago, _Michael said:

    So Mrs. May has called a snap election for June this year.

    I reckon the Tories are going to win by a landslide, similar to Labour in 97.

    What are people's thoughts on this?
    Is it needed?
    Will it provide stability and certainty like Mrs. May promises it will?

    I'm not so sure about the landslide. This is being seen as very injustificate and tricky by many people, so maybe there is some chance to organise counter-campaigning (I'm thinking particularly on something along the lines of the Canadian 'Anyone but Harper' campaign). Even though, that would require a lot of organisational power and a widespread desire to cooperate, even if only to get rid of May; I really don't know if the SNP and the both halves of the Labourism would be able to work together for that: nationalists see the Brexit as a great excuse to get out of the UK, and Corbynites aren't opposed to abandon the EU in principle.

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  • Original Poster
  • 26 minutes ago, matias93 said:

    This is being seen as very injustificate and tricky by many people, so maybe there is some chance to organise counter-campaigning

    I actually fundamentally disagree here.

    Labour and the Lib Dems both support the proposal since they feel May doesn't have a mandate since she hasn't been elected and both parties think they'll have a chance at increasing their Westminster status. The Green party has also come out in support.

    3 of the 4 main parties in Westminster support the early election - I doubt any 'counter-campaigning' will occur.

    Only the SNP oppose it, but there again, they'll oppose anything the Tories do...

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    18 minutes ago, _Michael said:

    I actually fundamentally disagree here.

    Labour and the Lib Dems both support the proposal since they feel May doesn't have a mandate since she hasn't been elected and both parties think they'll have a chance at increasing their Westminster status. The Green party has also come out in support.

    3 of the 4 main parties in Westminster support the early election - I doubt any 'counter-campaigning' will occur.

    Only the SNP oppose it, but there again, they'll oppose anything the Tories do...

    I didn't explain myself clearly, I was talking about counter-campaigning a new Tory government, not the idea of a snap election; to do such counter-campaign, there ought to be wide approval to the snap-election, or at least some well done spin to transform societal alienation into activism.

    Just now, JP Schriefer said:

    If the Conservative Party wins the majority of the seats again, will Theresa May remain as PM or it's not allowed? I'm not really into UK's election system.

    Yes, on parliamentary systems the PM will be reelected every time their party achieves to form government after an election, and provided the party doesn't change their leadership. Eventually the Tories would try to replace May and to keep their electoral mandate, doing only an internal leadership election; this is unusual in the UK, but a common practice in Australia, for example.

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    There is no limit to how many times an MP can remain in charge of the country, so indeed May will remain in charge.

    Looks like she sees the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone. Picking a time when it's unlikely the Conservatives will loose an election, guaranteeing them another 4-5 years in office. Whilst shutting up the those who've jumped on the "you were not the person we elected" bandwagon, which is a ridiculous argument. Gordon Brown faced this, despite everyone knowing up front a vote for Tony Blair would mean Gordon Brown taking over at some point. Since you aren't voting for a Prime Minister, but for a party, it you don't get the fundamentals of democracy/voting, shouting about it makes just makes you look like a complete fool. The side benefit being that they will have a mandate for Brexit and other policy changes brought in after Cameron stepped down last year.

    I guess they figure with a huge split in the Labour party and the Lib Dems basically unelectable, that there is minimal risk in this strategy. But one thing the Brexit vote should have taught them, is that people don't always do what you expect them too. That said, I fully expect the Conservatives to win this one, but it's interesting to think what might happen should Labour or another party campaign on the grounds of reversing Brexit. Considering how small the vote was won by, along with all those who have opposed it since, that would change the playing field dramatically IMO.

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    So looks like she's anticipating the general election because Conservatives will probably win. It's gonna sound like 'see we have popular support' and then discussions about Brexit will always tend to the good side since I'm always seeing people asking about a second plebiscite in the news.
    Well, just a thought from a distant guy about UK politics, it's like a ~don't really care about my opinion~

    :rofl:

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  • Original Poster
  • 2 minutes ago, JP Schriefer said:

    'see we have popular support'

    That's exactly why they've done it - to create a mandate for this new Government since Mrs. May's manifesto has never been elected, but @rsc204 is totally right, you vote for the party and not the person.

    28 minutes ago, JP Schriefer said:

     

    If the Conservative Party wins the majority of the seats again, will Theresa May remain as PM or it's not allowed? I'm not really into UK's election system.

     

     

    As others have said, as long as she's the leader of the Tory party, and the Tory party has a majority, then the Queen will ask them to form a Government. Technically, if she kept winning elections and there was never a leadership election, she could be PM indefinitely...

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    Typical political shenanigans... If things are looking gloomy, you hold out on an election as long as possible, desperate people will like you again.

    But when things are looking really good, you rush into it, knowing you won't have to deal with another for a while.

    Let's say there was no election and in two years time the reality of Brexit was very unpopular, with a general election looming. So you call one now, knowing it's unlikely you'll loose, and they've three years from that point, rather than one, to try and cling to power.

    It's hard to feel anything about the whole thing, since life for most people won't change whatever happens here. In fact, I feel bad for the poor people of the UK, having another round of election build up and all that goes with it. Haven't we suffered enough of that in the last few years?

    1 minute ago, _Michael said:

    As others have said, as long as she's the leader of the Tory party, and the Tory party has a majority, then the Queen will ask them to form a Government. Technically, if she kept winning elections and there was never a leadership election, she could be PM indefinitely...

    Oh I'm sure if someone stayed in charge too long, they'd be assassinated eventually. *:rofl: (This is a joke, albeit in poor taste)

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    7 minutes ago, _Michael said:

    Technically, if she kept winning elections and there was never a leadership election, she could be PM indefinitely...

     

    3 minutes ago, rsc204 said:

    Oh I'm sure if someone stayed in charge too long, they'd be assassinated eventually. *:rofl: (This is a joke, albeit in poor taste)

    And there are precedents: Indira Gandhi in India (15 years in two periods, including something alike a dictatorship); assasinated, Pierre Trudeau in Canada (~15 years in two periods), Olof Palme in Sweden (10,5 years in two periods); assasinated, Silvio Berlusconi in Italy (9 years in 3 periods)...

    3 minutes ago, rsc204 said:

    Typical political shenanigans... If things are looking gloomy, you hold out on an election as long as possible, desperate people will like you again.

    But when things are looking really good, you rush into it, knowing you won't have to deal with another for a while.

    Well, that's also an artifact of parliamentary systems; here presidents try to behave for the electorate until their last fixed term, and then blow it all, the little detail is that fixed terms also make harder for them to skip the guilt of their mismanagement, specially if they commit the terrible error of getting back to the presidency when their errors are beggining to give fruits (like Carlos Andrés Pérez in Venezuela, who spent most of the country savings on the 70s and then has to put the face to the austerity shock on the 90s)

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    I personally think what May and the Tories have done is rather clever. They would never push for a snap General Election if they thought they could not win- why throw away three years in power? The Lib Dems are almost non-existent and Labour is in utter shambles post-Brexit. The SNP are hotheads but their monopoly in Scotland could be challenged.

    My gut feeling is that Labour is going to get pounded and the SNP are going to lose some seats. The Tories will get a bigger majority in Parliament and it is possible the Lib Dems may claw back a few seats.

    Furthermore there will be a lot of Brexit talk from both sides and the current government will be fleshing out their negotiating position for Brexit and explaining a bit more about both the benefits and the liabilities. Which means the Tories have some kind of Brexit plan which will more or less hold up to public scrutiny in the run-up to the General Election.

    Of course if all goes well for the Tories and they win, in two years time the Brexit negotiations will be finished and that means they have three years of running the UK with Brexit actually happening.

    Right now everything is in limbo and yet running just as it was. Until the negotiations have concluded nothing will change: companies may move their operations, some EU citizens and EU immigrants may leave before the negotiations are finished, but as a whole Britain will remain in the EU until the negotiations have finished.

    The timing could not be more perfect because Europe is in a tight spot: the fallout from the 2015 immigration crisis continues with no-go zones and more crime and the odd terrorist attack, Turkey is rapidly becoming a dictatorship and may just send in another horde of refugees (like it did last time in 2015), the Eurozone debt crisis rumbles on in the background, Greece is seriously fed up with both the immigration and the neverending austerity. A wild card at the moment is Le Pen, if she somehow does get in and enacts even a quarter of what she is proposing, then France is going to distance itself somewhat from the EU, it may even Frexit. And guess who France is going to partner with? You guessed it the UK.

    My gut feeling is that in 5 to 10 years the Eurozone is going to split in two, three or four entities: Britain and the Scandavian countries possibly France; the PIIGS due to the Eurozone Debt Crisis; Germany and various Central European countries will probably constitute what's left of the original EU (if it breaks up); then of course the East European countries could have a block of their own. This may sound like crazy talk but the centralized EU system with its various elites seem to have a disconnect with various swathes of the European population; the Right-wing populism will continue to spread- doubly so if Turkey dumps a good portion of the 3 million refugees it is holding into Europe. The Eurozone Debt Crisis will keep popping up from time-to-time.

    I kid you not- Turkey has the EU by the balls because the EU elites know that any surge in immigration will cause Right-wing populism to mushroom. What the EU needs now is several years of strong economic growth, no more return of that debt crisis and lastly immigration levels to return to low levels. This will nip a lot of the Right-wing populism in the bud.

    So Brexit, by fortuitous circumstances may just be the smartest decision the UK made.

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    Well I gotta say I enjoyed it immensely to see Theresa May get absolutely punished for her arrogance and cowardice. 

    Writing out an election just to see if you can demolish Labour even further just to lose your absolute majority in a system that highly favors two parties. Hilarious. And now she gotta negotiate Brexit with an unstable government and a bunch of ultra conservatives. I'm sure that will go splendidly.

    Lets see how long it takes before someone in her own party sticks her back full of knives. 

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